Charming-Trillion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$743

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

75.8%

Resolved

924

Trades

2,058

lifetime

Volume

$15.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-02-28

last 10-22 13:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 100 days

Categories

Crypto

66% 60% -$677

Politics

26% 48% +$90

Other

5% 46% -$75

Tech

2% 44% -$79

Sports

0% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 173 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	Yes	-4	-$1	8¢	$-0	+$1	05-26 12:33
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Yes	-7	$0	5¢	$-0	+$0	05-30 16:47
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?	Yes	-7	-$1	4¢	$-0	+$0	05-30 16:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	1	$551	605	0	+605	No	+$54	05-25 12:11
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?	12	$528	273	273	+0	Yes	+$15	05-30 08:20
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026?	1	$498	549	0	+549	Yes	+$51	05-23 17:44
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026?	1	$466	501	0	+501	Yes	+$35	05-20 19:15
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 16, 2026?	1	$300	366	0	+366	Yes	+$66	05-16 06:06
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 19, 2026?	1	$300	313	0	+313	Yes	+$13	05-18 17:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	12	$237	191	191	+0	Up	+$17	05-30 13:19
will anthropic have the best ai model for coding on march 31	16	$236	1,062	1,062	+0	No	-$32	03-23 18:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4AM ET	13	$201	156	156	+0	Down	+$36	05-30 08:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	18	$144	90	90	+0	Down	+$14	10-22 08:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	7	$134	114	114	+0	Up	+$34	05-30 09:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	17	$128	75	75	+0	Down	+$8	10-22 08:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	18	$126	77	77	+0	Down	+$4	10-22 08:13
will iran strike israel on march 3	2	$126	77	77	+0	Yes	+$26	03-04 07:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	4	$123	100	88	+12	Down	+$21	05-30 13:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	4	$122	65	65	+0	Up	+$2	10-22 10:11
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	2	$102	54	54	+0	No	+$2	05-30 13:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	5	$101	87	87	+0	Up	+$13	05-28 21:37
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	1	$100	106	0	+106	Down	+$6	05-20 18:49
will google have the best ai model for coding on march 31	9	$99	835	835	+0	No	-$77	03-17 19:22
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 15	5	$91	75	75	+0	Yes	+$7	03-12 13:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	7	$89	79	79	+0	Up	+$9	05-20 19:10
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-04 20:30 UTC	2	$88	45	44	+0	Up	+$0	03-04 20:45
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 20:35 UTC	2	$85	44	44	+0	Up	+$2	03-04 20:40
will iran strike israel on march 4	6	$84	110	110	+0	Yes	-$77	03-05 19:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	7	$84	79	79	+0	Up	+$4	05-27 19:13
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	3	$82	48	48	+0	No	+$13	05-19 19:00
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 15, 2026?	2	$80	102	0	+102	Yes	+$22	05-15 05:13
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 20:45 UTC	3	$78	66	34	+31	Down	-$10	03-04 20:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	13	$77	91	48	+43	Up	-$15	05-28 21:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 13:41:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	13	71¢	$10	0xa5a373…
10-22 13:03:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	SELL	12	79¢	$10	0xb87bf7…
10-22 13:03:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x1361be…
10-22 12:36:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0x4d4ae0…
10-22 12:34:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x05af51…
10-22 12:34:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xcf42e5…
10-22 12:05:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0xbf0aff…
10-22 12:02:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x0e3bf5…
10-22 11:55:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x744e0d…
10-22 11:54:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	11	96¢	$11	0x475350…
10-22 11:53:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xc596b0…
10-22 11:53:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x534846…
10-22 10:31:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xf21f61…
10-22 10:28:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x3ee5d7…
10-22 10:11:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Up	SELL	32	95¢	$31	0xec2fec…
10-22 10:10:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Up	SELL	32	95¢	$31	0xa9f1f3…
10-22 10:06:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x3ecd2e…
10-22 10:05:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xce125a…
10-22 10:03:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0xdd3b46…
10-22 10:02:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xfb83f7…
10-22 10:01:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x1b3019…
10-22 09:38:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	11	26¢	$3	0x0828c3…
10-22 09:29:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xa9d159…
10-22 09:28:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x5437fc…
10-22 09:27:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-22 09:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xf5ad2b…
10-22 09:24:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	SELL	11	67¢	$7	0x58c29e…
10-22 09:15:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x22a91f…
10-22 09:09:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0xf25b0b…
10-22 09:06:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x6b5ccf…
10-22 09:05:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x7388d7…
10-22 09:03:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	SELL	7	91¢	$6	0xa1b715…
10-22 09:03:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x9d8278…
10-22 08:56:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	SELL	41	96¢	$39	0x015a9c…
10-22 08:56:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xd98fde…
10-22 08:55:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x2bf771…
10-22 08:55:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x0da49a…
10-22 08:55:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x814d03…
10-22 08:53:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	SELL	7	90¢	$6	0xaea870…
10-22 08:53:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x3dda57…
10-22 08:52:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	SELL	21	80¢	$17	0x387988…
10-22 08:52:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	SELL	21	77¢	$17	0xfb5afd…
10-22 08:51:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xcfb598…
10-22 08:51:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x5017a9…
10-22 08:51:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x5d9baf…
10-22 08:51:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xb2d665…
10-22 08:50:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x6b5aed…
10-22 08:50:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x3d1246…
10-22 08:50:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x0c70ff…
10-22 08:48:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xa61092…
10-22 08:47:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	SELL	7	86¢	$6	0xb9eccb…
10-22 08:46:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x2e0830…
10-22 08:45:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xf89af4…
10-22 08:43:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x036815…
10-22 08:42:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	31	98¢	$30	0x260d4a…
10-22 08:41:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xe0a143…
10-22 08:40:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x9da5f8…
10-22 08:40:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x431e82…
10-22 08:39:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	14	92¢	$13	0xf911a0…
10-22 08:39:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xc7ef12…
10-22 08:38:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	7	90¢	$7	0xabe881…
10-22 08:37:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x44169e…
10-22 08:36:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x55a1fa…
10-22 08:36:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xa7fad8…
10-22 08:35:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xb53a26…
10-22 08:35:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x4ecbbb…
10-22 08:35:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x0eced1…
10-22 08:34:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x51b3fa…
10-22 08:34:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	13	77¢	$10	0xbdc840…
10-22 08:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xdb3c2c…
10-22 08:33:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x025093…
10-22 08:25:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x8d9483…
10-22 08:23:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x367322…
10-22 08:23:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xe60f7e…
10-22 08:19:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xbe8ed9…
10-22 08:13:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x708232…
10-22 08:13:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0x82d543…
10-22 08:13:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd96a60…
10-22 08:13:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xfd93e0…
10-22 08:13:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x5b9077…
10-22 08:13:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x6461d9…
10-22 08:12:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	SELL	24	93¢	$23	0x81309a…
10-22 08:12:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x69bfb7…
10-22 08:12:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xcd9284…
10-22 08:12:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x39c359…
10-22 08:12:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x224751…
10-22 08:11:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	4	4¢	$0	0xa4c2fe…
10-22 08:08:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xf5de14…
10-22 08:07:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	SELL	14	84¢	$12	0x390881…
10-22 08:04:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xcb377c…
10-22 08:04:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xc7d459…
10-22 08:04:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	SELL	14	75¢	$10	0xf1244d…
10-22 08:03:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x0d40ec…
10-22 07:59:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xe34831…
10-22 07:58:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xf3563a…
10-22 07:58:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x0b0511…
10-22 07:58:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x062cba…
10-22 07:57:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	14	93¢	$13	0x1fa1c6…
10-22 07:54:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x6032a5…
10-22 07:51:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0xea5505…
10-22 07:51:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x42b0ed…