Sharp-Pannier — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$102

Unrealized P&L

-$15

Hit rate

40.2%

Resolved

Trades

113

lifetime

Volume

$2.14K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

$35

1 position

First seen

2026-04-17

last 06-14 01:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

52% — —

Other

27% 20% $-61

Sports

13% 43% $-41

Crypto

8% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes		+333	$50	11¢	$35	$-15	05-31 02:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	7	$238	262	262	+0	open	—	04-25 05:27
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	3	$230	192	192	+0	open	—	05-08 17:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$116	173	173	+0	open	—	04-26 07:16
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	3	$92	69	69	+0	open	—	04-24 13:24
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	3	$90	112	33	+78	Yes	$-50	05-07 17:51
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	2	$86	61	61	+0	open	—	04-27 21:13
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier	3	$85	76	76	+0	open	—	05-30 22:47
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	3	$79	416	0	+416	open	—	05-07 17:52
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	2	$72	606	606	+0	open	—	04-25 01:13
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 3 Major Qualifiers Qualifiers	3	$63	38	38	+0	OpTic Texas	+$13	05-09 22:13
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)	4	$63	195	0	+195	Yaroslav Amosov	$-63	05-10 00:16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$55	273	273	+0	open	—	04-25 01:14
nba den min 2026 04 23	2	$51	35	35	+0	open	—	04-24 02:48
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	1	$50	333	0	+333	open	—	05-31 02:09
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims)	2	$43	33	33	+0	Jim Miller	+$23	05-10 00:22
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26?	2	$36	125	117	+8	open	—	04-25 03:58
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	2	$36	32	32	+0	open	—	04-17 23:37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	2	$36	61	59	+2	open	—	04-25 03:24
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 3 Major Qualifiers Qualifiers	3	$35	36	36	+0	Miami Heretics	$-5	05-08 21:15
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$34	214	214	+0	open	—	04-24 21:12
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims)	2	$34	28	28	+0	Roman Kopylov	+$14	05-09 22:54
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	1	$33	94	0	+94	open	—	06-14 01:23
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	1	$30	120	0	+120	open	—	05-31 02:11
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	2	$29	185	185	+0	open	—	04-25 01:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	6	$28	82	32	+50	open	—	05-15 13:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	3	$27	26	19	+8	open	—	05-15 20:57
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims)	2	$26	16	16	+0	Jose Ochoa	+$6	05-09 22:15
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	2	$26	61	61	+0	open	—	05-15 20:33
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims)	1	$25	62	0	+62	open	—	05-16 13:09
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 3 Minor Playoffs	2	$25	91	0	+91	open	—	04-24 20:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-14 01:23:03	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	94	35¢	$33	0x5cd2ea…
05-31 02:11:22	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	120	25¢	$30	0xfb2240…
05-31 02:09:03	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	333	15¢	$50	0x6f0c57…
05-30 22:47:15	Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier	Vancouver Surge	SELL	76	65¢	$50	0x51eab9…
05-30 21:27:52	Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier	Vancouver Surge	BUY	33	46¢	$15	0xccf523…
05-30 21:10:58	Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier	Vancouver Surge	BUY	43	46¢	$20	0xbecbfe…
05-30 21:01:21	Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier	Carolina Royal Ravens	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x4e51c3…
05-16 13:09:58	UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims)	Daniel Barez	BUY	62	40¢	$25	0x1073f7…
05-15 20:57:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	SELL	19	63¢	$12	0xa106c3…
05-15 20:57:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x90784d…
05-15 20:55:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x2d8d70…
05-15 20:51:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xa43b19…
05-15 20:33:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	87	5¢	$4	0xa158fe…
05-15 20:33:44	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	SELL	61	10¢	$6	0x45dded…
05-15 20:25:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	SELL	9	51¢	$4	0x0803dd…
05-15 20:25:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xc013b1…
05-15 20:23:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	SELL	10	42¢	$4	0xe7749c…
05-15 20:23:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xfa66c4…
05-15 20:20:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x9293db…
05-15 20:19:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x7d21a6…
05-15 20:17:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	SELL	10	26¢	$2	0x2046b8…
05-15 20:16:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xdb919f…
05-15 20:16:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x999eba…
05-15 20:15:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x76fbc7…
05-15 20:10:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	SELL	9	48¢	$5	0x32951d…
05-15 20:10:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x5cfdee…
05-15 20:08:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	SELL	14	30¢	$4	0x232492…
05-15 20:08:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x56587b…
05-15 13:24:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x70315d…
05-15 13:24:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	70	7¢	$5	0x238c24…
05-15 13:23:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	SELL	7	95¢	$6	0x9ae14e…
05-15 13:23:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x273663…
05-15 13:23:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	SELL	5	82¢	$5	0x0ae833…
05-15 13:23:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xa3e325…
05-10 00:22:14	UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims)	Jim Miller	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x2d7b56…
05-10 00:16:28	UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)	Joel Álvarez	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x439171…
05-09 23:43:11	UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)	Mateusz Rebecki	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x9d7a41…
05-09 23:21:10	UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)	Joel Álvarez	BUY	43	37¢	$16	0xe3df15…
05-09 23:16:17	UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims)	Jim Miller	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xd7a3f1…
05-09 23:08:14	UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)	Sean Brady	SELL	27	34¢	$9	0xf488b3…
05-09 22:54:23	UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims)	Roman Kopylov	SELL	28	85¢	$24	0x3167c0…
05-09 22:26:53	UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Waldo Cortes-Acosta	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x1b6cb1…
05-09 22:25:57	UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)	Sean Brady	BUY	27	38¢	$10	0x2a904a…
05-09 22:15:25	UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims)	Jose Ochoa	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x8c2196…
05-09 22:13:38	Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 3 Major Qualifiers Qualifiers	OpTic Texas	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0x83a9cf…
05-09 19:50:05	Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 3 Major Qualifiers Qualifiers	OpTic Texas	BUY	23	65¢	$15	0x8d5eb6…
05-09 19:47:12	Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 3 Major Qualifiers Qualifiers	OpTic Texas	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x8228de…
05-09 19:44:52	UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims)	Jose Ochoa	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x01b087…
05-09 19:19:31	UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims)	Roman Kopylov	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x493d17…
05-08 21:15:47	UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)	Joel Álvarez	BUY	39	38¢	$15	0x167366…
05-08 21:15:30	Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 3 Major Qualifiers Qualifiers	Paris Gentle Mates	SELL	36	42¢	$15	0x0ea3d2…
05-08 20:05:05	Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 3 Major Qualifiers Qualifiers	Paris Gentle Mates	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xf306b2…
05-08 19:13:43	Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 3 Major Qualifiers Qualifiers	Paris Gentle Mates	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xdd1ed9…
05-08 18:37:23	Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 3 Major Qualifiers Qualifiers	Paris Gentle Mates	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x638986…
05-08 18:36:57	Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 3 Major Qualifiers Qualifiers	Miami Heretics	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0xd4ef23…
05-08 17:41:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	87	23¢	$20	0x47e187…
05-08 17:38:26	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	BUY	61	33¢	$20	0x02d9e0…
05-08 17:20:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	192	71¢	$136	0x1754af…
05-07 17:52:03	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0x0134b2…
05-07 17:51:44	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	33	60¢	$20	0x02a025…
05-07 12:49:15	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	153	19¢	$29	0x2b291f…
05-07 11:47:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	158	19¢	$30	0x2e3931…
05-06 23:03:32	UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)	Joel Álvarez	BUY	59	37¢	$22	0x01a0e3…
05-05 08:39:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	92	49¢	$45	0xe9468e…
05-04 23:37:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0x15ca1e…
05-01 21:22:28	Games Total: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0xf8b736…
04-27 21:17:56	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x07e7b4…
04-27 21:13:56	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	SELL	61	100¢	$61	0xbbe5c3…
04-27 09:06:38	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	61	40¢	$25	0x5b7579…
04-26 07:16:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	79	30¢	$24	0x26fc88…
04-25 14:32:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	34¢	$27	0x304419…
04-25 14:07:48	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	62	65¢	$40	0x145e4b…
04-25 05:27:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	SELL	139	34¢	$47	0x591279…
04-25 04:56:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	78	42¢	$33	0xb97c76…
04-25 03:58:02	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26?	Yes	SELL	117	14¢	$16	0xb41581…
04-25 03:47:20	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26?	Yes	BUY	125	16¢	$20	0x4e7b8f…
04-25 03:24:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	Yes	SELL	59	27¢	$16	0x53524a…
04-25 03:14:56	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	61	49¢	$30	0xbc6756…
04-25 02:45:04	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	SELL	124	45¢	$56	0x8fd6b4…
04-25 01:43:36	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	185	8¢	$14	0x7c3a54…
04-25 01:23:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	26	58¢	$15	0x34b82b…
04-25 01:14:50	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xcc9c63…
04-25 01:14:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	273	9¢	$25	0x042de8…
04-25 01:13:46	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	Yes	SELL	606	5¢	$32	0x11fc8d…
04-25 01:03:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	48	56¢	$27	0x59d1cc…
04-24 22:36:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	Yes	BUY	61	33¢	$20	0x31cb61…
04-24 22:09:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	273	11¢	$30	0x05b6d0…
04-24 21:56:14	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	BUY	185	8¢	$15	0xe031fc…
04-24 21:19:10	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	Yes	BUY	606	7¢	$40	0x44619f…
04-24 21:12:36	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	SELL	214	9¢	$19	0xba1ef9…
04-24 21:12:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	94	37¢	$35	0x0b8308…
04-24 20:02:02	Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 3 Minor Playoffs	Boston Breach	BUY	35	29¢	$10	0x732d7d…
04-24 19:21:58	Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 3 Minor Playoffs	Boston Breach	BUY	57	26¢	$15	0x7019fd…
04-24 13:32:10	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	BUY	214	7¢	$15	0x600deb…
04-24 13:25:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	94	32¢	$30	0x2a4a5a…
04-24 13:24:48	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	69	60¢	$41	0x78dc3f…
04-24 02:48:10	nba den min 2026 04 23	Timberwolves	SELL	35	90¢	$31	0xd316f7…
04-24 01:57:22	nba den min 2026 04 23	Timberwolves	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0x44078f…
04-23 22:19:44	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	41	73¢	$30	0xdbf100…
04-23 22:14:54	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0xc32ad2…