Fickle-Almighty — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$18.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$242

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 06-15 03:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

95% 100% +$1

Other

3% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Sports

0% 100% +$6

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran leadership change by May 31?	2	$2.9K	1,490	1,490	+0	open	—	05-22 09:30
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	1	$2.4K	0	2,448	-2,448	open	—	06-07 00:49
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$2.4K	2,388	1,111	+1,277	open	—	06-15 03:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$1.8K	2,300	0	+2,300	open	—	05-27 10:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	1	$1.7K	1,796	0	+1,796	open	—	05-23 08:42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$1.6K	1,681	0	+1,681	open	—	05-22 09:30
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	1	$1.4K	1,436	0	+1,436	open	—	05-18 01:45
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	3	$1.4K	1,374	20	+1,354	open	—	05-14 07:10
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	2	$946	1,293	0	+1,293	open	—	06-14 13:11
us and iran sign an agreement by june 22 2026 20260611221049852	2	$643	414	414	+0	open	—	06-15 01:14
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	1	$201	628	0	+628	open	—	06-07 00:50
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	2	$82	93	93	+0	open	—	05-18 01:45
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$59	40	40	+0	open	—	01-21 02:56
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	2	$58	42	42	+0	open	—	03-09 05:41
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	2	$57	30	30	+0	open	—	04-06 03:13
Will Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026?	2	$46	25	25	+0	open	—	05-07 05:41
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$46	25	25	+0	open	—	04-05 05:54
will the next dutch government be vvd cda d66	2	$44	23	23	+0	open	—	02-17 12:15
will progressive bulgaria pb win the most seats in the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election	2	$44	23	23	+0	open	—	04-20 05:31
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026?	2	$41	21	21	+0	Yes	+$1	05-12 07:33
will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	1	$39	42	0	+42	open	—	01-21 02:58
will apple be the third largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	1	$39	41	0	+41	open	—	01-23 07:10
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	2	$38	24	24	+0	open	—	05-12 07:33
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	2	$38	19	19	+0	open	—	05-27 10:29
Iran leadership change by April 30?	2	$38	20	20	+0	open	—	04-30 08:52
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	2	$37	19	19	+0	open	—	04-30 08:52
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	1	$35	38	0	+38	open	—	03-09 05:41
us strikes iran by february 3 2026	1	$32	32	0	+32	open	—	02-03 11:41
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	2	$32	18	18	+0	open	—	04-30 08:52
Will Marco Rubio be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	1	$26	27	0	+27	open	—	01-20 05:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-15 03:31:00	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	1,111	14¢	$157	0x28bb29…
06-15 01:14:06	us and iran sign an agreement by june 22 2026 20260611221049852	Yes	SELL	414	83¢	$343	0x74be2c…
06-14 13:11:24	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	BUY	909	71¢	$646	0x9e1b3d…
06-14 08:46:10	us and iran sign an agreement by june 22 2026 20260611221049852	Yes	BUY	414	73¢	$300	0x503af9…
06-13 11:34:07	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	BUY	385	78¢	$300	0x3fbdfd…
06-07 00:50:48	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	2,388	94¢	$2,245	0xd3bd42…
06-07 00:50:15	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	628	32¢	$201	0xbbe1aa…
06-07 00:49:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	SELL	2,448	99¢	$2,428	0xa63078…
06-01 05:49:43	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	BUY	11	86¢	$9	0x72839b…
05-28 12:46:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x475882…
05-27 10:29:59	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x09c599…
05-27 10:29:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,300	79¢	$1,817	0x7c1412…
05-23 08:45:52	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x4edb67…
05-23 08:42:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	1,796	93¢	$1,670	0x38a394…
05-22 09:32:08	Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31?	No	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x4d276b…
05-22 09:30:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	1,681	96¢	$1,621	0xa00e20…
05-22 09:30:02	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	1,490	96¢	$1,433	0x429f23…
05-19 07:01:14	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	1,490	96¢	$1,430	0x04bfcd…
05-18 01:45:51	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	1,436	98¢	$1,400	0x05e87b…
05-18 01:45:30	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	93	29¢	$27	0xaeb44b…
05-14 07:10:31	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	1,354	98¢	$1,320	0x1e6b8b…
05-12 07:34:36	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	93	59¢	$55	0x474405…
05-12 07:34:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x5e1565…
05-12 07:33:44	Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0x408cad…
05-12 07:33:33	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	24	67¢	$16	0x151ea1…
05-07 05:43:23	Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0x2d3704…
05-07 05:42:43	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	24	91¢	$22	0x013a36…
05-07 05:41:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x93b6d2…
05-07 05:41:10	Will Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0xac7fb2…
04-30 08:54:32	Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final?	Yes	BUY	21	70¢	$15	0xd27871…
04-30 08:53:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	No	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0x613b9c…
04-30 08:52:56	Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x0774c2…
04-30 08:52:48	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x6c6aca…
04-30 08:52:40	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xafca38…
04-20 05:32:08	Will Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	83¢	$21	0x055bb3…
04-20 05:31:58	Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	18	78¢	$14	0x5cfa6b…
04-20 05:31:50	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	19	95¢	$18	0xf9751d…
04-20 05:31:26	will progressive bulgaria pb win the most seats in the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xc9d8e8…
04-10 02:17:15	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	No	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0xc3c362…
04-06 03:13:25	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0xe50fb5…
04-05 05:56:31	will the 2026 mens ncaa basketball national champion come from the big ten conference	Yes	BUY	22	76¢	$17	0x8cc466…
04-05 05:56:21	Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?	Yes	BUY	23	60¢	$14	0x566b97…
04-05 05:55:21	will progressive bulgaria pb win the most seats in the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	23	92¢	$21	0xe724e2…
04-05 05:54:55	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x2258bd…
04-05 05:54:49	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	No	SELL	17	57¢	$9	0x444e89…
04-01 11:31:29	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x6b353e…
04-01 11:31:13	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x5007b3…
04-01 11:30:41	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x4101fd…
03-25 08:23:01	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	No	BUY	17	74¢	$12	0x239f6d…
03-25 08:22:49	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	25	85¢	$21	0x93f653…
03-14 03:02:07	will nvda reach 228 in march	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xaa57a3…
03-14 03:01:43	will claude 5 be released by march 31 2026 243 489 141 184	No	BUY	18	92¢	$16	0x5d87f5…
03-14 03:01:11	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	93¢	$12	0x16afd6…
03-09 05:41:31	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	38	93¢	$35	0x499957…
03-09 05:41:19	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	22	85¢	$19	0x8d8021…
03-09 05:41:01	Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	Yes	SELL	42	46¢	$19	0xea544a…
03-02 01:43:13	will israel strike lebanon on march 1 2026	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0xf284f7…
03-02 01:42:45	will hamnet win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0xeeec46…
02-17 12:16:05	Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	Yes	BUY	42	92¢	$39	0x14c359…
02-17 12:15:35	will the next dutch government be vvd cda d66	Yes	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0xfca330…
02-13 11:19:55	Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026?	No	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x0073a6…
02-13 11:19:31	will russia capture all of pokrovsk by february 28	No	BUY	27	78¢	$21	0xa38914…
02-13 11:18:01	will mrbeasts million dollar puzzle be solved by february 15	No	BUY	23	94¢	$21	0xda1ad8…
02-13 11:16:37	will bruno mars have the greatest number of monthly spotify listeners this month	Yes	BUY	18	82¢	$15	0xa59b1d…
02-13 11:15:21	will russia strike kyiv on february 13 2026	No	BUY	23	95¢	$22	0xdd27a4…
02-03 11:41:40	will artemis ii launch by february 28	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x647e3d…
02-03 11:41:28	us strikes iran by february 3 2026	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xa13dfb…
01-23 07:10:34	will apple be the third largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	Yes	BUY	41	95¢	$39	0xcc5291…
01-21 02:58:12	will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	Yes	BUY	42	93¢	$39	0xc702ab…
01-21 02:57:44	will the seahawks win the 2026 nfc championship	Yes	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0xd32e38…
01-21 02:57:16	will the next dutch government be vvd cda d66	Yes	BUY	23	92¢	$21	0xb1c84c…
01-21 02:56:40	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	SELL	31	81¢	$25	0xe7bc94…
01-21 02:56:34	EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	40	64¢	$26	0x8a6602…
01-20 05:12:42	Will Marco Rubio be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0xbdbe7e…
01-17 12:55:42	EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	40	83¢	$33	0x60adaa…
01-09 11:54:38	Over $6M committed to the Trove public sale?	Yes	BUY	26	85¢	$22	0xb4eb81…
01-05 05:37:07	over 20m committed to the ranger public sale 942	Yes	BUY	27	83¢	$22	0xb52922…