Bowed-Path — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$51

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

77.9%

Resolved

135

Trades

293

lifetime

Volume

$971

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-25

last 10-27 02:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 70 days

Categories

Other

82% 62% +$64

Politics

12% 46% -$12

Sports

6% 20% -$1

Tech

1% 100% +$2

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	+4	$3	20¢	$1	-$2	10-14 04:10
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	+4	$1	18¢	$1	$0	07-28 13:13
will russia invade a nato country by december 31 2026	Yes	+11	$1	4¢	$0	$0	07-22 03:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	3	$95	56	56	+0	Yes	+$17	10-20 13:49
will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1 893	9	$48	58	50	+9	Yes	+$1	08-19 02:21
Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	2	$40	23	23	+0	open	—	09-22 03:35
will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 15	7	$38	24	22	+2	No	+$4	08-13 12:34
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	1	$35	37	0	+37	Yes	+$2	10-27 02:33
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	8	$32	24	24	+0	No	-$1	07-26 08:15
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	3	$32	40	0	+40	Yes	+$8	10-23 07:56
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	1	$32	37	0	+37	Yes	+$5	10-02 12:02
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	1	$30	33	0	+33	Yes	+$3	10-06 04:17
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	1	$30	35	0	+35	Yes	+$5	10-12 04:45
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	1	$30	31	0	+31	No	+$1	10-07 16:34
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	1	$27	36	0	+36	Yes	+$9	10-16 04:40
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	2	$22	13	13	+0	No	+$2	09-29 14:48
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	2	$22	29	0	+29	Yes	+$7	09-25 02:22
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$18	10	10	+0	No	+$2	06-14 05:16
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	5	$17	20	1	+18	No	+$4	06-22 15:14
will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	3	$15	27	0	+27	No	+$13	07-05 03:41
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	3	$14	21	3	+17	Yes	+$7	06-20 04:10
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	3	$13	8	6	+2	Yes	+$1	08-14 12:44
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$13	8	8	+0	Yes	+$4	06-14 05:16
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	2	$11	16	0	+16	Yes	-$11	06-14 17:48
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	6	$10	31	16	+16	Yes	-$1	08-16 13:18
will trump praise allah again by june 30	2	$8	5	5	+0	Yes	+$0	06-08 06:28
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	3	$8	9	4	+5	Yes	-$1	08-17 02:06
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?	3	$8	10	6	+4	Yes	-$2	07-21 05:10
will 50 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	4	$8	5	5	+0	No	+$0	07-13 17:36
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	06-03 04:38
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	3	$7	6	3	+3	Yes	+$1	07-02 04:44
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	4	$7	5	5	+0	Spain	+$1	07-19 22:20
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	2	$6	5	5	+0	No	$0	07-05 03:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 02:34:32	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	43¢	$2	0x9af0f6…
10-27 02:33:41	Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	2¢	$0	0x3ab949…
10-27 02:33:18	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	95¢	$35	0xc211d0…
10-25 13:41:39	Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x8a1378…
10-25 13:41:06	Will Trump say "Biden" or "Kamala" or "Obama" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x748406…
10-25 13:40:53	Will Trump say "Hell" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xf6fd6f…
10-25 13:37:51	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	4¢	$1	0x3c23ec…
10-25 13:37:20	Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x777783…
10-23 07:56:18	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x832c4d…
10-22 11:25:30	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0x9af45f…
10-22 03:17:45	Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Iowa?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x6ce9c7…
10-22 03:17:35	Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa?	Yes	BUY	2	68¢	$2	0x1092f2…
10-22 03:17:05	Will Trump say "Data Center" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa?	Yes	BUY	3	57¢	$1	0x80fee3…
10-22 03:16:45	Will Trump say "Ass" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x3cee9d…
10-22 03:16:33	Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa?	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x6dc3cc…
10-22 03:16:15	Will Trump say "Hell" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Iowa?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x3a7f32…
10-22 03:08:09	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	79¢	$15	0xb27101…
10-21 15:52:18	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x7a6ace…
10-21 15:51:48	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x5b4a79…
10-21 11:00:21	Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	SELL	12	6¢	$1	0x080e71…
10-21 06:20:23	Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?	Yes	SELL	7	8¢	$1	0x73805b…
10-21 06:20:12	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	1¢	$0	0x0e7db5…
10-21 06:18:30	Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x741966…
10-21 06:11:47	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 22, 2026?	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xa59660…
10-20 13:49:14	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	99¢	$56	0x08305c…
10-19 14:53:57	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	73¢	$35	0x15ac30…
10-19 11:23:23	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	33¢	$3	0xaa0128…
10-18 14:19:12	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x5805d6…
10-16 04:40:54	Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	75¢	$27	0xc504ea…
10-15 04:58:52	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0xaa2040…
10-15 04:58:41	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0xf8ead8…
10-14 04:10:26	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	65¢	$3	0x311790…
10-12 04:45:51	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	85¢	$30	0x366936…
10-08 02:49:22	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	9¢	$2	0x0ea90f…
10-07 16:34:56	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x4059ed…
10-07 16:34:38	Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0x828194…
10-07 10:27:21	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	21¢	$2	0x67b2b9…
10-06 04:17:48	Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0x470ac9…
10-04 03:56:23	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x6d329c…
10-02 12:02:14	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	87¢	$32	0xd2be94…
10-01 11:35:23	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x068648…
09-29 15:07:38	Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xc94e6a…
09-29 14:48:48	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	95¢	$12	0x6e1aca…
09-28 02:17:36	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x54ec2e…
09-25 02:22:56	Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	79¢	$17	0x1ce5bf…
09-24 13:48:31	Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xa9a92c…
09-22 03:38:03	Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x926218…
09-22 03:35:59	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	No	SELL	23	85¢	$20	0x0c2d56…
09-22 03:35:14	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	No	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0xf70e95…
09-17 07:51:03	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x7a9c6d…
09-16 04:34:36	Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30?	No	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0x22dfbb…
09-12 13:33:09	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	2¢	$0	0x8818fb…
09-09 03:31:37	Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	7	5¢	$0	0x5a3fce…
09-03 05:17:19	Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?	Yes	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0x090f85…
08-24 02:07:19	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x5ea951…
08-23 12:10:27	Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0x39bcbc…
08-21 16:53:49	Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	37¢	$2	0xda0e7a…
08-21 16:52:37	Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x797fca…
08-20 17:09:33	Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x0169fe…
08-20 01:36:46	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by october 31 2026 20260811165319370 684	Yes	BUY	22	22¢	$5	0x4436f4…
08-19 02:21:16	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1 893 748	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x6f322f…
08-17 02:06:45	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xf372df…
08-17 02:06:19	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	80¢	$4	0xb703a1…
08-16 13:18:00	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	SELL	1	32¢	$0	0xccd1fb…
08-16 08:28:30	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1 893	No	BUY	9	69¢	$6	0xe74164…
08-16 08:27:16	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0x5b6035…
08-14 12:45:07	moscow air traffic suspended by august 31 20260720155944305	No	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0x0ff497…
08-14 12:44:43	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x33f99d…
08-14 11:25:03	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x5887b7…
08-14 04:51:21	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	SELL	7	32¢	$2	0xe1675a…
08-13 12:41:37	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1 893	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x871b62…
08-13 12:41:15	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by september 30 2026 715	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0xedb329…
08-13 12:34:12	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 15	No	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0xcf3684…
08-12 12:09:22	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x7dd71d…
08-12 12:03:34	will russia capture kindrativka by september 30	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x6f3a52…
08-12 12:03:07	will russia capture toretske by september 30 2026	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xaf1502…
08-12 03:49:25	will drake attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630272	Yes	SELL	17	1¢	$0	0xa3b8d5…
08-12 03:49:22	will luka modric attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630269	Yes	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0x380b23…
08-12 03:49:21	will sergio ramos attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630257	Yes	SELL	9	7¢	$1	0xcf7687…
08-11 03:39:42	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0xe8debf…
08-10 06:47:22	will russia enter hannivka by september 30 2026 20260729205140183	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xbd21c7…
08-10 06:03:46	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 15	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x335f0c…
08-09 03:36:06	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x5cfa13…
08-09 03:35:01	will russia enter stinky by august 31	No	BUY	4	61¢	$2	0xa30d02…
08-08 04:02:58	will luka modric attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630269	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x3b2206…
08-08 04:02:43	will sergio ramos attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630257	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x11031e…
08-08 04:02:33	will drake attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630272	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xc31dc3…
08-07 18:12:51	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x94c3f6…
08-07 08:22:03	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	SELL	8	26¢	$2	0xcc6a5e…
08-06 10:38:21	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1 893	No	SELL	36	44¢	$16	0x9266bf…
08-06 04:25:36	will russia capture huliaipilske by september 30	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x4cd90b…
08-04 16:37:21	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	41¢	$2	0x798a8c…
08-04 16:28:12	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xb7a034…
08-04 11:49:00	will russia enter myrne by august 31 2026	No	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x317ae3…
08-04 11:47:30	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xaaaf5d…
08-04 08:10:50	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	47¢	$2	0x1fb9f4…
08-03 15:36:11	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1 893	No	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x2a00ef…
08-03 14:41:36	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 15	No	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0xf6ab4b…
08-03 11:55:29	will russia capture toretske by september 30 2026	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xc42406…
08-03 11:53:38	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232 846	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x2a954f…