Agitated-Fallacy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

89.4%

Resolved

286

Trades

4,572

lifetime

Volume

$5.73K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-16

last 06-17 16:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 88% $-2

Other

2% 100% +$0

Sports

1% — —

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 104 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (13) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 260 279	5	$16	9	9	+0	open	—	02-17 18:08
xrp updown 15m 1771597800	11	$15	10	10	+0	open	—	02-20 14:42
xrp updown 15m 1771604100	4	$14	8	8	+0	open	—	02-20 16:28
bitcoin above 66k on february 16	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	02-16 15:39
xrp updown 15m 1771601400	6	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	02-20 15:40
btc updown 5m 1774770300	6	$10	10	6	+4	open	—	03-29 07:50
btc updown 5m 1771615800	2	$9	5	5	+0	open	—	02-20 19:33
xrp updown 15m 1771652700	6	$8	8	3	+6	open	—	02-21 05:53
btc updown 5m 1772899500	4	$8	8	8	+0	open	—	03-07 16:03
btc updown 15m 1773101700	8	$8	8	8	+0	open	—	03-10 00:24
btc updown 15m 1773501300	8	$8	8	8	+0	open	—	03-14 15:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	1	$8	8	0	+8	Down	+$0	05-11 12:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	1	$7	9	0	+9	Up	+$2	05-11 22:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	1	$7	8	0	+8	Down	+$1	05-12 15:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	1	$7	9	0	+9	Up	$-7	05-13 02:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	1	$7	9	0	+9	Down	+$1	05-11 14:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	1	$7	9	0	+9	Down	+$2	05-11 19:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	1	$7	8	0	+8	Up	+$1	05-13 03:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	1	$7	8	0	+8	Up	+$1	05-11 21:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	1	$7	9	0	+9	Down	+$1	05-11 18:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	1	$7	8	0	+8	Up	+$1	05-13 01:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	1	$7	9	0	+9	Up	+$1	05-12 06:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	1	$7	8	0	+8	Up	+$0	05-11 15:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	1	$7	8	0	+8	Up	+$0	05-12 09:30
btc updown 5m 1772900700	4	$7	8	8	+0	open	—	03-07 16:26
sol updown 15m 1774774800	4	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	03-29 09:15
will trump say job 15 times in rome ga on february 19	2	$6	7	7	+0	open	—	02-19 06:11
btc updown 15m 1772524800	2	$6	6	6	+0	open	—	03-03 08:14
btc updown 5m 1771275600	4	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	02-16 21:06
solana up or down march 21 2026 2pm et	4	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	03-21 18:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-17 16:38:47	btc updown 5m 1781714100	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xcbf265…
06-17 16:33:47	btc updown 5m 1781713800	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xadcb17…
06-17 16:18:46	btc updown 5m 1781712900	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x505acf…
06-17 16:03:46	btc updown 5m 1781712000	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x02f64e…
06-17 15:59:34	btc updown 5m 1781711700	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x527df4…
06-17 15:48:44	btc updown 5m 1781711100	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x741512…
06-17 15:38:46	btc updown 5m 1781710500	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xefde07…
06-17 15:23:46	btc updown 5m 1781709600	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x558812…
06-17 15:08:44	btc updown 5m 1781708700	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2dd7ba…
06-17 15:03:50	btc updown 5m 1781708400	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xb0759b…
06-17 14:53:44	btc updown 5m 1781707800	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf118a7…
06-17 14:53:22	btc updown 5m 1781707800	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x574f5f…
06-17 14:48:46	btc updown 5m 1781707500	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x16cdd4…
06-17 14:47:34	btc updown 5m 1781707500	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x77c3b1…
06-17 14:38:44	btc updown 5m 1781706900	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x4c7cc6…
06-17 14:33:52	btc updown 5m 1781706600	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xe3c3b5…
06-17 14:13:46	btc updown 5m 1781705400	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xfc0ab4…
06-17 14:13:04	btc updown 5m 1781705400	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xe9346e…
06-17 14:09:22	btc updown 5m 1781705100	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x150487…
06-17 14:08:52	btc updown 5m 1781705100	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x63a8ba…
06-02 00:59:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xa9d09b…
06-02 00:44:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x43e750…
06-02 00:29:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe1fdff…
06-02 00:24:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x037f89…
06-02 00:14:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4dbcaf…
06-02 00:09:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcd3ea8…
06-01 23:14:51	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x78edf8…
06-01 22:47:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf3426b…
06-01 22:34:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcc38e2…
06-01 22:26:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x848d1d…
06-01 22:03:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x256f23…
06-01 21:44:49	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x9bf120…
06-01 21:34:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x430fe2…
06-01 21:27:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xc313a2…
06-01 21:07:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf7cb5a…
06-01 20:59:29	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xe9632d…
06-01 20:54:42	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x48c711…
06-01 20:39:48	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x78bebb…
06-01 20:24:33	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x5b97b3…
06-01 20:14:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x3d797a…
06-01 19:54:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5f86ea…
06-01 19:39:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x35b51b…
06-01 19:24:47	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x40a9fc…
06-01 18:59:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe169f2…
06-01 18:40:04	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xa155ae…
06-01 18:39:50	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x5a8da5…
06-01 18:25:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xbcb8a7…
06-01 18:24:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x12eb93…
06-01 18:04:47	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x8e2795…
06-01 18:04:38	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x45159b…
06-01 16:43:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xb31fff…
06-01 16:42:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x4fc74a…
06-01 16:40:01	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd7c346…
06-01 16:39:52	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xc2583c…
06-01 16:34:55	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x439430…
06-01 16:34:41	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc97bd3…
06-01 16:28:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x0bdd83…
06-01 16:28:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xbdfad0…
06-01 16:19:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x2a7b86…
06-01 16:19:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd51335…
06-01 16:12:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xf42a28…
06-01 16:12:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x150603…
06-01 16:08:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x59265d…
06-01 16:07:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x4f8863…
06-01 14:39:39	Solana Up or Down - June 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xe46453…
06-01 14:39:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xd23c67…
06-01 14:39:28	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xa62d11…
06-01 14:39:02	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x2f2650…
06-01 14:38:01	Solana Up or Down - June 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xc80063…
06-01 14:37:31	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xb54f02…
06-01 14:34:50	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	SELL	1	14¢	$0	0x6ee0c4…
06-01 14:34:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xc15d11…
06-01 14:33:28	XRP Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xd97a94…
06-01 14:32:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xe2db45…
06-01 14:29:14	Solana Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x32e8d4…
06-01 14:27:52	Solana Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x7ab8c4…
06-01 14:13:08	Solana Up or Down - June 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xf665a2…
06-01 13:58:03	Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xae1e78…
06-01 13:57:18	Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x3f4b28…
06-01 12:58:25	Solana Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x5142bf…
06-01 12:37:56	Solana Up or Down - June 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	SELL	1	65¢	$1	0xbc3f27…
06-01 12:37:07	Solana Up or Down - June 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x35ef9c…
06-01 12:34:23	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2c1cb4…
06-01 12:34:05	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xff2044…
06-01 12:24:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x516956…
06-01 12:21:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x545ce8…
06-01 12:19:56	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x0c96cd…
06-01 12:16:51	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x0ebcd8…
06-01 12:04:53	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	SELL	1	66¢	$1	0xa3c65b…
06-01 12:04:03	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xd902d9…
06-01 11:44:20	Solana Up or Down - June 1, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x8d1a58…
06-01 11:39:19	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x31e38c…
06-01 11:38:12	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x7aa2ac…
06-01 11:29:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xc4cdb3…
06-01 11:29:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x8862a8…
06-01 09:54:55	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xb0c4b5…
06-01 09:52:44	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x6f360d…
06-01 09:40:08	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x97fc37…
06-01 09:39:56	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xd4670f…
06-01 09:39:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x2590ab…