Fearless-Arithmetic — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$81.6K

Unrealized P&L

+$5

Hit rate

92.5%

Resolved

10,628

Trades

18,718

lifetime

Volume

$1.29M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$69

Open exposure

$1.25K

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-23

last 10-30 03:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 251 days

Categories

Other

62% 98% +$101,250

Crypto

24% 99% -$32,388

Sports

8% 96% +$11,815

Politics

5% 98% +$1,004

Tech

0% 93% -$147

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 354 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No		+876	$863	99¢	$869	+$5	10-29 22:49
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi		+385	$379	98¢	$379	$0	10-29 17:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	3	$87.6K	88,000	0	+88,000	No	+$392	06-03 21:36
dogecoin up or down march 15 2026 11am et	3	$37.3K	40,086	0	+40,086	Down	-$37,233	03-15 16:08
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on June 1?	3	$7.9K	7,931	0	+7,931	Yes	+$79	06-01 10:55
will ethereum reach 2000 in august 2026	2	$7.8K	7,854	0	+7,854	Yes	+$79	08-19 15:07
will ethereum reach 2250 on april 13	3	$7.7K	7,777	0	+7,777	Yes	+$78	04-13 19:32
will bitcoin reach 76k on march 16	4	$7.7K	7,777	0	+7,777	Yes	+$78	03-17 01:36
will ethereum reach 2200 in march 2026	1	$7.7K	7,777	0	+7,777	Yes	+$78	03-13 13:20
Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on April 26?	2	$7.7K	7,777	0	+7,777	Yes	+$78	04-26 14:20
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 on April 27?	1	$7.7K	7,777	0	+7,777	Yes	+$78	04-27 15:04
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on April 27?	1	$7.7K	7,777	0	+7,777	Yes	+$78	04-27 15:18
will ethereum dip to 1950 on march 29	2	$7.7K	7,777	0	+7,777	Yes	+$78	03-29 22:45
will bitcoin dip to 63k on june 3	1	$7.7K	7,777	0	+7,777	Yes	+$78	06-04 00:54
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 30?	3	$7.7K	7,777	0	+7,777	Yes	+$78	05-01 03:19
will bitcoin dip to 60k on june 5	1	$7.7K	7,777	0	+7,777	Yes	+$78	06-05 15:41
will bitcoin reach 68k on march 30	2	$7.7K	7,777	0	+7,777	Yes	+$82	03-30 11:27
will ethereum reach 2100 on march 12	1	$7.6K	7,777	0	+7,777	Yes	+$150	03-13 00:15
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	1	$7.5K	7,777	0	+7,777	$80k	+$245	05-04 02:00
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 2?	8	$6.8K	6,882	0	+6,882	Yes	+$69	05-02 21:37
Exact Score: AEK 0 - 0 OFI?	73	$6.7K	13,783	0	+13,783	Yes	+$7,100	09-02 19:19
will solana reach 85 on april 1	13	$5.5K	5,555	0	+5,555	Yes	+$56	04-01 16:37
Will Solana dip to $85 on May 22?	1	$5.5K	5,555	0	+5,555	Yes	+$56	05-22 18:45
will solana reach 85 on april 13	1	$5.5K	5,555	0	+5,555	Yes	+$56	04-13 22:14
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw?	108	$4.6K	4,765	0	+4,765	Yes	+$148	06-08 09:58
cs2 faze tyloo 2026 03 20 game1	18	$4.3K	2,091	2,953	-862	TYLOO	+$739	03-20 14:40
Exact Score: 1. FC Cologne 2 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian?	65	$4.1K	4,193	0	+4,193	Yes	+$112	08-08 05:13
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09?	75	$4.1K	4,354	0	+4,354	No	+$286	06-08 09:58
will bitcoin dip to 67k on march 31	32	$4.0K	4,006	0	+4,006	Yes	+$50	03-31 10:48
AEK vs. OFI: Draw at halftime?	45	$3.9K	4,707	0	+4,707	Yes	+$789	09-02 19:34
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09?	74	$3.8K	3,925	0	+3,925	No	+$99	06-08 09:53
donald trump of truth social posts march 20 march 27 80 99	25	$3.8K	1,919	1,919	+0	No	-$4	03-27 10:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 03:12:24	Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 108.5	Over	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x57fd12…
10-30 03:09:04	Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 110.5	Over	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x94aaac…
10-30 02:42:24	Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 257.5	Under	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x124fb6…
10-30 01:36:37	Panthers vs. Packers: 1H O/U 28.5	Over	BUY	77	98¢	$76	0x96a1fd…
10-30 01:25:09	1H Spread: Pelicans (-6.5)	Kings	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0xbce51a…
10-30 01:24:51	Kings vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 120.5	Over	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xfaea45…
10-30 01:20:10	Kings vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 118.5	Over	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd99b2e…
10-30 01:15:10	Kings vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 114.5	Over	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6d7869…
10-30 01:14:30	nba sac nop 2026 10 29 1h total 116pt5	Over	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x620909…
10-30 00:39:54	Panthers vs. Packers: 1Q O/U 7.5	Over	BUY	77	98¢	$75	0x36d595…
10-29 23:12:30	Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 6°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	28	99¢	$27	0x9c8a02…
10-29 22:49:01	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	76	99¢	$75	0x8ddea1…
10-29 22:30:33	ACV vs. Amsterdamsche FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xe9abb6…
10-29 21:34:07	Dota 2: Rottweilas Latam vs Roshan Hunters - Game 1 Winner	Rottweilas Latam	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xf93687…
10-29 21:04:46	Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on October 29?	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xd6616d…
10-29 20:55:09	Spread: KK Crvena Zvezda (-6.5)	KK Crvena Zvezda	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x716e4c…
10-29 20:52:48	Dota 2: Rottweilas Latam vs Roshan Hunters - Game 1 Winner	Rottweilas Latam	BUY	74	99¢	$74	0xa8dacb…
10-29 20:30:51	Dota 2: Rottweilas Latam vs Roshan Hunters - Game 1 Winner	Rottweilas Latam	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x832a65…
10-29 20:23:16	Will Strategy (MSTR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$3	0x14d004…
10-29 20:05:51	Pyramids FC vs. Wadi Degla SC: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0xd6e7d6…
10-29 19:39:04	Set Handicap: Alexander Zverev (-1.5) vs Tallon Griekspoor (+1.5)	Alexander Zverev	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x1d73a6…
10-29 19:33:06	Set Handicap: Alexander Zverev (-1.5) vs Tallon Griekspoor (+1.5)	Alexander Zverev	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x6dfe84…
10-29 19:32:58	Set Handicap: Alexander Zverev (-1.5) vs Tallon Griekspoor (+1.5)	Alexander Zverev	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x952c24…
10-29 19:20:18	Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5)	Atlanta Dream	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x83a9be…
10-29 19:07:21	Will Pyramids FC win on 2026-10-29?	Yes	BUY	75	99¢	$74	0x1c4d81…
10-29 19:04:04	Will Pyramids FC win on 2026-10-29?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xb06392…
10-29 19:02:12	Frosinone Calcio vs. US Lecce: Frosinone Calcio O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x172c48…
10-29 17:47:08	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	BUY	77	97¢	$75	0xf8f123…
10-29 17:46:28	Set 2 Winner: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0x227127…
10-29 17:46:17	Set 1 Winner: Daniel Altmaier vs Jiri Lehecka	Jiri Lehecka	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x25bd83…
10-29 17:46:16	M15 João Pessoa: Nicolas Bruna vs Bastian Malla	Nicolas Bruna	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x8b8831…
10-29 17:45:17	Set 1 Winner: Daniel Altmaier vs Jiri Lehecka	Jiri Lehecka	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0xeb92f3…
10-29 17:45:11	Modern SC vs. El Ahly SC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x9da555…
10-29 17:35:17	Set 2 Winner: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd9452f…
10-29 17:29:55	Set 2 Winner: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0xf3fbd7…
10-29 17:29:55	Set 1 Winner: Daniel Altmaier vs Jiri Lehecka	Jiri Lehecka	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0xaf96e5…
10-29 17:26:32	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x304385…
10-29 17:11:32	Will Leigh Gray win the next Brighton mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	64	99¢	$64	0xd06258…
10-29 17:06:59	M15 João Pessoa: Nicolas Bruna vs Bastian Malla	Nicolas Bruna	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x76d04b…
10-29 17:06:32	M15 João Pessoa: Nicolas Bruna vs Bastian Malla	Nicolas Bruna	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0xf69d38…
10-29 16:45:44	KHL: Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg vs. Torpedo	Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x19720e…
10-29 16:45:05	KHL: Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg vs. Torpedo	Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x816b7e…
10-29 14:56:44	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	BUY	68	99¢	$67	0x5e1abd…
10-29 14:53:46	M25 Sheffield: Matt Ponchet vs Martin Krumich	Matt Ponchet	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x45c8f9…
10-29 14:00:41	Set 1 Winner: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Erika Andreeva	Marina Bassols Ribera	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x86b9f1…
10-29 13:31:22	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0xbcc3cf…
10-29 12:53:35	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x1271b0…
10-29 12:35:44	StarCraft II: Clem vs Classic (BO3) - IntoTheTV x SOOP SC2 League Premier Group D	Clem	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0x7fc7c8…
10-29 11:03:17	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x48a306…
10-29 07:43:49	Carabobo FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x68e100…
10-29 07:32:38	Carabobo FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	45	99¢	$45	0x9c10e7…
10-29 03:47:29	1H Spread: Lakers (-6.5)	Lakers	BUY	64	99¢	$63	0x7bbc4f…
10-29 03:37:17	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	BUY	65	99¢	$64	0xde3112…
10-29 03:18:02	Lakers vs. Clippers: Race to 10 Points	Lakers	BUY	77	96¢	$74	0x09d4a5…
10-29 02:54:41	1H Spread: Thunder (-2.5)	Mavericks	BUY	59	99¢	$59	0xcf99f2…
10-29 02:17:28	Spread: Raptors (-6.5)	Raptors	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x006f10…
10-29 02:10:22	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	77	98¢	$76	0x75174e…
10-29 01:44:20	Hornets vs. Pistons: O/U 189.5	Under	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x60e16b…
10-29 01:43:56	Hornets vs. Pistons: O/U 189.5	Under	BUY	38	99¢	$37	0x3cbebe…
10-29 01:42:40	Bulls 1H Team Total: O/U 60.5	Over	BUY	63	51¢	$32	0xeded90…
10-29 01:20:58	Warriors vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 108.5	Over	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0xc57b74…
10-29 01:17:31	nba gsw min 2026 10 28 1h spread away 14pt5	Warriors	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x3b9165…
10-29 01:17:22	nba gsw min 2026 10 28 1h spread away 14pt5	Warriors	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x5c309c…
10-29 01:15:05	1H Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)	Warriors	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x2b79ba…
10-29 00:50:19	Magic vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 111.5	Over	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x94304e…
10-29 00:48:59	Knicks vs. Bulls: Race to 20 Points	Knicks	BUY	77	96¢	$74	0x3d35cb…
10-29 00:47:35	Knicks vs. Bulls: Race to 30 Points	Knicks	BUY	77	96¢	$74	0x92d1e9…
10-29 00:33:02	76ers vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 116.5	Under	BUY	47	99¢	$46	0x06a0a7…
10-29 00:13:35	1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)	Wizards	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x5b07e8…
10-29 00:07:53	US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	55	99¢	$55	0xc26583…
10-29 00:06:02	1H Spread: Hawks (-3.5)	Heat	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x55ce98…
10-28 23:42:23	KVV Quick Boys vs. VV Eemdijk: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x8e6bdd…
10-28 22:51:32	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x70b503…
10-28 20:57:10	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0xbb9378…
10-28 20:54:22	Liverpool FC to score first vs. Chelsea FC?	No	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x6ad756…
10-28 20:04:22	Will Warsh say "Payroll" during October Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	59	99¢	$58	0x001eaa…
10-28 19:43:23	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	77	98¢	$75	0x471a57…
10-28 19:17:17	M25 Norman, OK: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Giles Hussey	Johan Alexander Rodriguez	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0xe0e9d6…
10-28 18:50:40	Will Warsh say "Good Day" during October Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	37	96¢	$35	0x4c3ca5…
10-28 18:48:46	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	BUY	77	98¢	$76	0x09537e…
10-28 18:40:22	Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	77	98¢	$75	0x362879…
10-28 18:37:28	Will Warsh say "Good Day" during October Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	63	99¢	$63	0xa0206f…
10-28 18:14:43	M15 Selva Gardena: Luca Castagnola vs Jake Fellows	Jake Fellows	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x8e69eb…
10-28 17:06:41	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	77	98¢	$75	0x732795…
10-28 16:05:43	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x5ccc45…
10-28 15:54:23	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	52	99¢	$51	0xd86014…
10-28 15:38:17	W50 Istanbul: Anastasia Gasanova vs Ekaterina Dotsenko	Ekaterina Dotsenko	BUY	77	96¢	$74	0x29f5b1…
10-28 15:35:19	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x53a80a…
10-28 15:12:23	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x66d423…
10-28 14:17:56	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0xfe2a26…
10-28 13:49:02	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	48	99¢	$48	0xa6cb91…
10-28 13:34:46	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	73	99¢	$72	0x6f582f…
10-28 13:33:19	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x36de67…
10-28 04:51:05	Spread: Canucks (-1.5)	Ducks	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x1f421d…
10-28 04:50:49	Spread: Canucks (-1.5)	Ducks	BUY	47	99¢	$47	0x8162d2…
10-28 04:50:46	Spread: Canucks (-1.5)	Ducks	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x10ab57…
10-28 04:34:56	Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 113.5	Over	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x277b05…
10-28 02:37:05	Set Handicap: Ekaterina Alexandrova (-1.5) vs Kamilla Rakhimova (+1.5)	Kamilla Rakhimova	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0xd9d185…
10-28 01:25:39	Pistons vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 110.5	Under	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x592fd0…
10-28 01:22:47	Pistons vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 110.5	Under	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x9c27f8…