Criminal-Dynamics — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$65

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

69.1%

Resolved

168

Trades

620

lifetime

Volume

$2.79K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-20

last 10-28 23:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 46% +$48

Politics

1% 100% +$17

Other

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 67 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 12:25 UTC	2	$159	111	111	+0	Up	+$61	07-08 12:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 12:35 UTC	4	$80	89	89	+0	Down	+$14	07-08 12:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 05:25 UTC	13	$63	64	64	+0	Up	+$15	07-08 05:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 12:50 UTC	1	$60	162	0	+162	Up	-$60	07-08 12:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 12:15 UTC	5	$59	80	50	+30	Up	$0	07-08 12:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-21 16:05 UTC	6	$56	47	44	+2	Up	+$18	04-21 16:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 11:40 UTC	3	$40	129	29	+100	Up	+$18	07-08 11:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 05:20 UTC	6	$40	61	43	+18	Down	+$2	07-08 05:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 14:55 UTC	6	$39	51	48	+2	Up	+$10	04-20 15:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 06:15 UTC	7	$39	58	52	+6	Down	+$3	07-08 06:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 06:05 UTC	6	$38	53	38	+15	Up	+$9	07-08 06:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 14:25 UTC	6	$37	51	48	+3	Up	+$15	04-20 14:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 11:15 UTC	5	$35	38	33	+5	Up	+$11	07-08 11:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	10	$34	80	38	+42	Up	+$6	10-25 23:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	14	$33	55	37	+18	Down	+$5	10-25 23:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 20:50 UTC	2	$33	21	21	+1	Up	+$9	04-20 20:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 21:40 UTC	6	$32	46	44	+2	Up	+$8	04-20 21:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 11:25 UTC	5	$31	44	23	+21	Up	+$22	07-08 11:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 21:00 UTC	3	$31	29	27	+2	Down	+$25	04-20 21:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 17:45 UTC	3	$31	24	23	+1	Up	+$16	04-20 17:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 20:05 UTC	4	$31	27	26	+2	Up	+$22	04-20 20:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 11:30 UTC	4	$30	25	25	+0	Up	+$10	07-08 11:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 05:45 UTC	4	$30	22	22	+0	Down	+$14	07-08 05:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 10:55 UTC	7	$30	28	28	+0	Up	+$6	07-08 10:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 05:50 UTC	8	$29	39	31	+8	Up	+$4	07-08 05:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 05:40 UTC	2	$28	19	19	+0	Down	+$10	07-08 05:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 05:00 UTC	6	$28	25	25	+0	Down	+$12	07-08 05:05
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$27	33	33	+0	Yes	+$17	10-25 22:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-21 16:15 UTC	6	$26	44	41	+2	Up	+$9	04-21 16:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 12:45 UTC	2	$26	62	0	+62	Down	-$26	07-08 12:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 23:10:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xb762b6…
10-28 23:08:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	SELL	15	5¢	$1	0x765251…
10-28 23:05:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x5e1500…
10-28 23:05:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0xcd6b61…
10-28 23:00:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x8e448b…
10-28 23:00:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x50d74f…
10-28 22:58:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x891268…
10-28 22:57:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x805aaf…
10-28 22:57:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	SELL	7	58¢	$4	0x47a2c7…
10-28 22:55:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x21a57e…
10-28 22:53:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	SELL	7	51¢	$4	0xabff17…
10-28 22:52:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x625114…
10-28 22:51:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	SELL	8	49¢	$4	0xcacfcd…
10-28 22:50:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0x8a89ec…
10-28 22:49:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	SELL	17	64¢	$11	0x75a146…
10-28 22:45:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xe79cb5…
10-28 22:45:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x93a360…
10-28 22:41:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xbe6d0b…
10-28 22:28:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x0f6902…
10-28 22:27:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0x947314…
10-28 22:25:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x7799d8…
10-28 22:23:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	16	11¢	$2	0xad8e19…
10-28 22:21:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x7bf078…
10-28 22:21:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x96e411…
10-28 22:20:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	SELL	8	47¢	$4	0xcfa594…
10-28 22:20:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0x984d78…
10-28 22:15:56	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xd49dc9…
10-28 22:15:13	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x0359c9…
10-28 22:14:14	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0xff9737…
10-28 22:13:35	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xf00795…
10-28 22:13:22	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	SELL	6	51¢	$3	0x51ba20…
10-28 22:11:08	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x2b5f3d…
10-25 23:41:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	36	11¢	$4	0xdfa06a…
10-25 23:41:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xf2ff0a…
10-25 23:40:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x16433b…
10-25 23:35:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x60406e…
10-25 23:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xc58ce6…
10-25 23:33:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0x3bfe55…
10-25 23:32:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	SELL	30	45¢	$14	0xd583be…
10-25 23:30:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	16	25¢	$4	0xe283d9…
10-25 23:30:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x3fdd36…
10-25 23:26:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xb2b7f8…
10-25 23:25:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x8c51ce…
10-25 23:25:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0xecd741…
10-25 23:21:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x6ecdd8…
10-25 23:21:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xd7965c…
10-25 23:21:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	SELL	11	42¢	$5	0x9445a0…
10-25 23:20:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x2faeb5…
10-25 23:14:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x62d0ef…
10-25 23:13:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xb5ae63…
10-25 23:13:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	SELL	6	65¢	$4	0xa0b571…
10-25 23:12:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x73e22a…
10-25 23:12:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	SELL	9	55¢	$5	0x85f0a0…
10-25 23:11:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0xc09848…
10-25 23:11:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	SELL	22	48¢	$10	0x37a4b2…
10-25 23:11:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xf5cb42…
10-25 23:11:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x3b9054…
10-25 23:10:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0xa80ce9…
10-25 23:09:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0xb27d32…
10-25 23:09:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	SELL	7	25¢	$2	0x55e235…
10-25 23:08:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x96a0e6…
10-25 23:08:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	SELL	4	40¢	$1	0xa4926b…
10-25 23:08:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x279723…
10-25 23:08:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0xd09402…
10-25 23:07:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x07e59c…
10-25 23:07:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	SELL	8	63¢	$5	0xa8dcd5…
10-25 23:07:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x90cf0d…
10-25 23:06:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x865ec2…
10-25 23:06:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xfa8dfd…
10-25 23:05:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	SELL	11	60¢	$6	0x0998e1…
10-25 23:05:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x05812b…
10-25 23:05:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x5f367f…
10-25 23:03:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xe1dc76…
10-25 23:02:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x9d8f55…
10-25 23:02:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x263166…
10-25 23:02:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x5ad5e2…
10-25 23:01:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	SELL	6	54¢	$3	0x92e096…
10-25 23:01:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x26164a…
10-25 23:01:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	SELL	8	67¢	$5	0xb503e3…
10-25 23:00:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0x767c09…
10-25 22:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xfc5523…
10-25 22:55:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x92ed11…
10-25 22:54:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x2e0db5…
10-25 22:54:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xb9eee8…
10-25 22:53:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x001504…
10-25 22:53:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	SELL	3	48¢	$2	0x165c99…
10-25 22:52:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xa72ba0…
10-25 22:52:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	SELL	14	63¢	$9	0x1257fd…
10-25 22:50:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x364b21…
10-25 22:50:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0xe0dedc…
10-25 22:49:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x085787…
10-25 22:48:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	SELL	19	44¢	$8	0x78e0e2…
10-25 22:47:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xa83293…
10-25 22:46:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x19f470…
10-25 22:46:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	SELL	9	78¢	$7	0x08f569…
10-25 22:45:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0x71cc13…
10-25 22:41:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x76b1f1…
10-25 22:41:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x8d0499…
10-25 22:38:02	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	33	68¢	$22	0x4e346d…
10-04 22:29:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0x4081e2…