Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$117

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

45.8%

Resolved

153

Trades

1,966

lifetime

Volume

$6.15K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$109

12 positions

First seen

2026-10-19

last 10-29 21:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Other

71% 27% -$85

Politics

17% 10% -$18

Tech

8% 28% -$5

Pop-Culture

2% 33% -$1

Sports

2% 25% -$7

Crypto

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 285 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (15) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	+55	$6	68¢	$37	+$31	10-29 05:39
Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	+34	$29	99¢	$34	+$5	10-29 07:01
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	+55	$49	32¢	$18	-$31	10-29 05:39
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	No	+7	$6	98¢	$7	+$1	10-27 14:45
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	+6	$5	88¢	$5	+$0	10-27 16:46
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?	Yes	+5	$5	95¢	$5	+$0	10-25 20:53
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?	Yes	+5	$0	22¢	$1	+$1	10-21 01:50
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	No	+6	$1	12¢	$1	+$0	10-29 17:47
Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	+56	$9	1¢	$0	-$8	10-29 12:35
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?	No	+5	$1	5¢	$0	$0	10-26 12:33
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	+7	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	10-27 22:59
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	Yes	+2	$1	4¢	$0	-$1	10-24 00:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	8	$90	462	462	+0	Yes	-$3	10-21 18:44
Will the Republicans win Greenville County in the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	17	$88	172	162	+10	open	—	10-24 09:22
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of October 19 2026?	12	$72	198	66	+132	No	+$3	10-20 19:35
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	8	$64	50	50	+0	open	—	10-21 14:57
Will "Klara and the Sun" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $2M?	7	$62	58	58	+0	Yes	-$3	10-22 00:15
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $166 Week of October 19 2026?	5	$61	66	22	+44	No	+$1	10-20 18:20
Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 25?	4	$61	44	44	+0	Yes	-$1	10-22 21:50
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	2	$55	110	0	+110	open	—	10-29 05:39
Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?	10	$51	86	74	+12	open	—	10-24 06:13
Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $2M?	12	$51	87	87	+0	open	—	10-21 17:57
France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?	6	$49	66	66	+0	open	—	10-21 20:21
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	5	$48	46	46	+0	open	—	10-25 10:55
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	8	$47	53	53	+0	Yes	-$1	10-22 00:13
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.30% before 2027?	10	$45	145	97	+48	open	—	10-29 07:07
Will Hilton (HLT) beat quarterly earnings?	5	$44	47	44	+3	Yes	+$1	10-26 22:23
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027?	6	$43	45	44	+1	open	—	10-27 02:47
Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 24?	6	$43	43	43	+0	Yes	+$0	10-24 15:45
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on October 20?	4	$43	88	0	+88	No	+$1	10-20 13:48
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?	2	$42	220	220	+0	No	+$2	10-21 16:34
Will Julia Stiles be eliminated in week 7 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?	11	$42	143	91	+52	No	-$1	10-24 06:55
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 10, 2026?	4	$41	41	41	+0	open	—	10-28 11:35
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 20?	4	$41	84	0	+84	Yes	+$1	10-20 14:03
Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 22?	5	$41	44	44	+0	No	-$1	10-22 02:04
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 28, 2026?	9	$41	59	56	+4	No	+$2	10-27 16:09
Will the Democrats win Greenville County in the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	4	$41	42	42	+0	open	—	10-21 22:12
will xagusd reach 58 by october 19 2026 from october 20	2	$41	22	22	+0	Yes	+$0	10-20 19:00
Will Jean Silva fight Kevin Vallejos next?	4	$40	40	34	+6	open	—	10-22 12:57
Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	13	$40	87	52	+35	open	—	10-27 22:52
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 4%-8%?	7	$40	57	57	+0	open	—	10-26 01:50
Nuñez out as French Interior Minister by October 31, 2026?	3	$40	22	22	+0	open	—	10-21 12:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 22:29:13	Will Magan's Fare win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	22	10¢	$2	0x7b605a…
10-29 22:13:40	Will Andrey Gyurov win the second round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	6	14¢	$1	0xf83f43…
10-29 22:13:09	Will Andrey Gyurov win the second round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0xf47ba6…
10-29 22:11:34	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	8	5¢	$0	0x9e96a8…
10-29 22:11:03	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	5¢	$0	0x35c005…
10-29 22:00:39	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-04 House election by 15%-20%?	No	SELL	14	84¢	$12	0x432441…
10-29 21:57:09	Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?	Yes	SELL	16	10¢	$2	0x995650…
10-29 21:56:31	Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?	Yes	BUY	16	10¢	$2	0xedf6fc…
10-29 21:55:09	Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31?	Yes	BUY	55	17¢	$9	0x46c59e…
10-29 21:34:27	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	9¢	$0	0xab2f42…
10-29 21:11:24	Will Russia enter Moskovka by November 30?	Yes	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0x94bd99…
10-29 21:10:12	Will Cambridge Dictionary's 2026 Word of the Year contain "bait"?	Yes	SELL	22	7¢	$1	0x1ab894…
10-29 21:05:21	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	9¢	$1	0x2b28ba…
10-29 21:04:45	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0xd04c6c…
10-29 20:58:57	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x188c87…
10-29 20:46:43	Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on November 2?	Yes	SELL	11	10¢	$1	0x6402fe…
10-29 20:17:55	Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	No	SELL	8	37¢	$3	0xdbe830…
10-29 20:14:03	Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	No	SELL	14	34¢	$5	0xb52f7e…
10-29 19:23:34	Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?	Yes	SELL	22	10¢	$2	0xee1ee7…
10-29 19:07:01	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.0 on October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	22	14¢	$3	0x9aa7d3…
10-29 17:56:32	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 14, 2026?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$11	0x305be1…
10-29 17:47:13	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	No	SELL	11	11¢	$1	0x257091…
10-29 17:46:05	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	No	SELL	2	11¢	$0	0xca5f1d…
10-29 17:42:22	Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	SELL	16	16¢	$3	0x3f7ac5…
10-29 17:42:20	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	7¢	$0	0x91a089…
10-29 17:42:19	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	7¢	$1	0x059d5e…
10-29 17:41:37	Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	No	SELL	17	11¢	$2	0xd4199a…
10-29 17:37:22	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	No	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x7345bc…
10-29 17:36:14	Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.6% and 2.8%?	Yes	BUY	22	13¢	$3	0xeba526…
10-29 17:32:38	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x164448…
10-29 17:32:28	Democratic Senate odds <60% on November 1?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x15dbaf…
10-29 17:32:04	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x6efd61…
10-29 17:31:47	Democratic Senate odds <60% on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x7b1d2d…
10-29 17:31:13	Will Collins's 2026 Word of the Year contain "rot"?	Yes	SELL	22	8¢	$2	0xacff83…
10-29 17:28:10	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between December 14 and December 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	10¢	$2	0x543488…
10-29 17:20:46	Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	12¢	$2	0x5cfd37…
10-29 17:20:43	Will there be no Gemini Carbon release by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	9¢	$5	0x74840a…
10-29 17:20:13	Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	12¢	$0	0x23953f…
10-29 17:20:08	Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x50d128…
10-29 17:20:07	Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	12¢	$1	0x1a86ae…
10-29 17:16:32	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $547.50 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0x7a2efc…
10-29 17:01:25	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on November 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	7¢	$2	0x2206be…
10-29 16:54:23	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	10¢	$2	0x4e2d85…
10-29 16:52:11	Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 43m?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x82a7fc…
10-29 16:51:56	Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 43m?	Yes	SELL	14	13¢	$2	0xc82263…
10-29 16:43:59	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	22	16¢	$4	0x17ed04…
10-29 16:43:04	Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	22	6¢	$1	0x503c6f…
10-29 16:39:28	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	9¢	$0	0xcaaf36…
10-29 16:34:07	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MT-01 House election by 3%-6%?	Yes	SELL	22	16¢	$4	0x2a1378…
10-29 16:33:34	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MT-01 House election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0xca5566…
10-29 16:33:32	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MT-01 House election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x17f79b…
10-29 16:31:43	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	10¢	$4	0xa6e36e…
10-29 16:31:20	Will there be no Gemini Carbon release by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x101681…
10-29 16:31:07	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x88eb49…
10-29 16:31:07	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	10¢	$2	0x7d9569…
10-29 16:12:41	Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on November 2?	Yes	BUY	11	11¢	$1	0xd104a6…
10-29 16:02:01	Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	7¢	$1	0xf77582…
10-29 16:01:10	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0x2899ee…
10-29 16:00:25	Will there be no Gemini Carbon release by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	10¢	$0	0x13c7ff…
10-29 15:47:56	Will there be no Gemini Carbon release by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	10¢	$0	0xba2a4f…
10-29 15:45:02	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in October?	Yes	BUY	22	13¢	$3	0x705034…
10-29 15:43:02	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-29 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	SELL	22	12¢	$3	0xc22e89…
10-29 15:42:26	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-29 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0xf858a8…
10-29 15:42:25	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-29 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	BUY	21	11¢	$2	0x797fcb…
10-29 15:40:37	Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 43m?	Yes	BUY	12	11¢	$1	0xd5bfac…
10-29 15:33:11	Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0xf66699…
10-29 15:33:11	Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0xe33c09…
10-29 15:32:26	Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	7¢	$2	0x7ffde8…
10-29 15:25:40	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	21	6¢	$1	0xdbf241…
10-29 15:21:38	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0xcb9adf…
10-29 15:21:02	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0xc9018e…
10-29 15:21:01	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x3bba41…
10-29 15:14:53	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	22	7¢	$2	0x2500c5…
10-29 15:14:13	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	8¢	$2	0x539dc1…
10-29 15:08:28	Will Alfajer play for Gentle Mates in 2027?	No	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x5e2881…
10-29 14:58:25	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x487e21…
10-29 14:57:10	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 23 and November 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	15¢	$2	0xb592ff…
10-29 14:53:11	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	Yes	SELL	22	8¢	$2	0x082edf…
10-29 14:52:17	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	Yes	BUY	22	8¢	$2	0xce95f1…
10-29 14:51:19	Will any other company have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	22	10¢	$2	0xbdf525…
10-29 14:46:37	Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?	Yes	BUY	22	10¢	$2	0x7823a6…
10-29 14:43:20	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	22	9¢	$2	0x91d92e…
10-29 14:41:52	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	8¢	$1	0xa18b17…
10-29 14:41:52	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x548f9c…
10-29 14:39:44	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	22	10¢	$2	0xa38e02…
10-29 14:36:23	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	22	10¢	$2	0xcd763e…
10-29 14:15:07	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	12¢	$3	0x2bd5d4…
10-29 14:14:02	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	12¢	$3	0x7bdf8e…
10-29 14:11:56	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	22	10¢	$2	0xa01626…
10-29 14:10:41	Will Gemini Carbon be released between December 14 and December 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	17¢	$4	0x2f501b…
10-29 14:10:07	Will Gemini Carbon be released between December 14 and December 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0xe111eb…
10-29 14:10:07	Will Gemini Carbon be released between December 14 and December 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0xd23e7b…
10-29 14:08:01	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.50T and $1.75T at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x420ce4…
10-29 14:02:31	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	7¢	$1	0xe940bb…
10-29 13:55:37	Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	9¢	$2	0x3ff511…
10-29 13:54:56	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x960ebc…
10-29 13:54:23	Will any other company have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	22	11¢	$2	0x331129…
10-29 13:43:49	Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	10¢	$2	0xcc5444…
10-29 13:39:55	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	No	SELL	12	11¢	$1	0x34c1e1…
10-29 13:35:46	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	22	8¢	$2	0xda993e…