Informal-Explanation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$32

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

45.2%

Resolved

Trades

211

lifetime

Volume

$999

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-04

last 05-29 19:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

69% 14% $-32

Other

31% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 199 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	4	$134	0	250	-250	open	—	05-29 19:02
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic	3	$84	210	0	+210	open	—	05-29 18:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	8	$78	52	52	+0	open	—	05-04 15:09
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score	5	$69	200	200	+0	open	—	05-04 15:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	3	$59	67	67	+0	open	—	05-04 12:29
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	6	$48	162	162	+0	open	—	05-04 12:04
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	3	$31	58	58	+0	Up	+$1	05-04 20:59
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	3	$26	24	24	+0	open	—	05-04 11:37
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	2	$26	27	27	+0	open	—	05-04 12:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	2	$23	38	38	+0	open	—	05-04 11:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	5	$21	47	37	+10	open	—	05-04 12:53
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31?	2	$21	0	36	-36	open	—	05-29 18:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	3	$17	62	12	+50	open	—	05-04 10:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	2	$16	42	42	+0	open	—	05-04 17:43
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	6	$16	56	40	+15	open	—	05-04 12:58
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	3	$13	50	50	+0	open	—	05-04 11:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	2	$13	38	0	+38	open	—	05-04 13:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	5	$13	80	0	+80	open	—	05-04 14:57
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	4	$13	14	14	+0	open	—	05-04 15:18
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	2	$12	29	0	+29	Down	$-12	05-05 12:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	4	$12	22	0	+22	open	—	05-04 13:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	1	$10	19	0	+19	Down	$-10	05-06 16:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	05-04 13:39
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	5	$9	32	0	+32	open	—	05-04 15:03
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	2	$9	16	16	+0	open	—	05-04 11:50
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	4	$8	14	14	+0	open	—	05-04 14:23
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	5	$8	19	9	+10	open	—	05-04 12:53
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	3	$7	68	0	+68	open	—	05-04 12:32
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	3	$7	67	0	+67	open	—	05-04 13:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	7	$7	28	7	+21	open	—	05-04 15:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-29 19:02:02	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	128	53¢	$68	0x5816b4…
05-29 18:50:07	Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic	Novak Djokovic	BUY	67	30¢	$20	0x0c7017…
05-29 18:49:23	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	36	53¢	$19	0xe0e32c…
05-29 18:37:59	Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic	Novak Djokovic	BUY	90	39¢	$35	0x9af4c4…
05-29 18:28:33	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	41	54¢	$22	0x811ce4…
05-29 18:28:30	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31?	No	SELL	27	57¢	$15	0xdb9820…
05-29 18:10:39	Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic	Novak Djokovic	BUY	53	54¢	$29	0x3d5596…
05-29 18:07:16	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31?	No	SELL	9	62¢	$5	0xe461b5…
05-29 18:07:05	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	45	56¢	$25	0xc89778…
05-06 16:10:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x201d0d…
05-05 12:19:26	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x1092e9…
05-05 12:18:22	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x107fa6…
05-04 21:03:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xfaa0b4…
05-04 21:01:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x9999aa…
05-04 20:59:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	SELL	58	28¢	$16	0x4f5d82…
05-04 20:59:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x0dc858…
05-04 20:56:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xe86743…
05-04 20:54:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	SELL	67	1¢	$1	0x09cf1a…
05-04 20:53:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0xf7c7df…
05-04 20:52:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x6d96ee…
05-04 20:52:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	SELL	13	8¢	$1	0x80b827…
05-04 20:52:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x7826b4…
05-04 20:48:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0x15fa50…
05-04 17:43:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	SELL	42	26¢	$11	0xad4007…
05-04 17:42:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	42	13¢	$5	0x79112f…
05-04 15:43:48	Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score	No	SELL	200	3¢	$6	0xc2fb7a…
05-04 15:42:50	Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	87	30¢	$26	0x913b04…
05-04 15:25:06	Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0x88f568…
05-04 15:22:48	Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x6c4802…
05-04 15:22:46	Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x84e540…
05-04 15:20:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xc4bad0…
05-04 15:18:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x80d52b…
05-04 15:18:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x5dc60c…
05-04 15:18:02	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	SELL	14	71¢	$10	0xf82a37…
05-04 15:16:40	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x3b7c11…
05-04 15:16:38	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xbf0905…
05-04 15:16:38	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x387264…
05-04 15:13:36	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xe8b76a…
05-04 15:13:22	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x1a7e31…
05-04 15:12:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xe7b921…
05-04 15:12:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xbe1999…
05-04 15:12:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x9dc81d…
05-04 15:12:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x5995a0…
05-04 15:11:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	SELL	7	8¢	$1	0xd3c66d…
05-04 15:11:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x24e98d…
05-04 15:11:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x86d606…
05-04 15:09:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	SELL	52	99¢	$51	0x2272b9…
05-04 15:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xfcd821…
05-04 15:08:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x14ae70…
05-04 15:08:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xa5f324…
05-04 15:08:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x6f77f5…
05-04 15:06:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xd8dc35…
05-04 15:06:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x6e16b5…
05-04 15:06:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xd4e97d…
05-04 15:05:22	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x1b434d…
05-04 15:03:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xea343a…
05-04 15:03:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x454fb4…
05-04 15:03:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xff0509…
05-04 15:03:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x783127…
05-04 15:03:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xb4a677…
05-04 15:01:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x08559a…
05-04 14:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x060ef1…
05-04 14:56:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x984830…
05-04 14:56:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x408938…
05-04 14:56:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x8414b4…
05-04 14:56:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x4d528d…
05-04 14:53:38	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x512372…
05-04 14:53:10	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	22	4¢	$1	0xc98eef…
05-04 14:51:28	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xc809ed…
05-04 14:51:28	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x97f1fd…
05-04 14:48:00	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xa02a34…
05-04 14:48:00	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x75fe60…
05-04 14:47:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x5da416…
05-04 14:47:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x528f96…
05-04 14:24:26	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x1525bb…
05-04 14:23:24	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	14	38¢	$5	0xb8b43f…
05-04 14:22:56	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xff0822…
05-04 14:22:56	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x9d9d25…
05-04 14:22:56	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x47836f…
05-04 14:22:54	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xd83b9d…
05-04 14:22:54	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x7a733a…
05-04 14:22:54	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x5fcf10…
05-04 14:22:52	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x66ec20…
05-04 14:22:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	6	13¢	$1	0xd3c6bd…
05-04 14:22:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0x35f9ec…
05-04 14:22:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0x1bc11b…
05-04 13:42:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0xc88665…
05-04 13:42:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xb0bfc6…
05-04 13:39:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x0702fa…
05-04 13:25:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xb67eb8…
05-04 13:25:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x4a0929…
05-04 13:25:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xff3de7…
05-04 13:25:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xc8a6db…
05-04 13:24:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xc3f703…
05-04 13:18:44	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xd77452…
05-04 13:18:44	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xa60457…
05-04 13:17:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x8548ef…
05-04 13:12:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x425b16…
05-04 13:12:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x15e68f…
05-04 13:12:30	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xda90be…