Decent-Refuge — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$24

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

97.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$4.35K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$79

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 07-27 08:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Other

83% 95% -$31

Politics

10% 100% +$4

Crypto

5% 100% +$2

Tech

2% 100% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-27).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	1	$138	139	+139	No	+$1	06-15 01:48
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	1	$116	116	+116	No	+$0	06-10 01:39
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	1	$116	116	+116	No	+$0	06-07 02:58
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	1	$115	139	+139	No	+$23	06-12 07:51
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	1	$107	107	+107	No	+$0	06-04 03:15
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	1	$107	116	+116	No	+$9	06-06 10:40
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026?	1	$103	106	+106	Yes	+$3	06-02 06:45
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$103	103	+103	No	+$0	05-30 06:52
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	1	$103	104	+104	No	+$1	05-28 07:22
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 61 million views on day 6?	1	$102	102	+102	No	+$0	05-22 02:15
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	1	$102	103	+103	No	+$1	05-24 07:34
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in May 2026?	1	$101	101	+101	No	+$0	05-19 07:24
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	1	$100	100	+100	No	+$0	04-02 08:15
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 280 299	1	$100	101	+101	Yes	-$100	04-14 01:19
bitcoin above 60k on april 7	1	$100	100	+100	Yes	+$0	04-07 03:05
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 180 199	1	$100	100	+100	No	+$0	04-12 09:47
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	1	$99	101	+101	No	+$2	05-17 08:01
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	1	$99	99	+99	No	+$0	05-15 02:51
will the us next strike iran on february 11 2026 et	1	$99	99	+99	No	+$0	02-12 09:13
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 140 159	1	$98	99	+99	No	+$0	02-08 03:17
elon musk of tweets february 5 february 7 0 39	1	$98	98	+98	No	+$0	02-05 08:28
elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 0 39	1	$97	98	+98	No	+$1	02-02 08:52
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$97	97	+97	Yes	+$0	01-30 08:48
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$97	98	+98	Yes	+$0	03-17 02:48
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 140 159	1	$97	97	+97	No	+$0	03-22 08:38
no change in bank of japans interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$96	96	+96	Yes	+$1	01-22 08:35
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	1	$95	95	+95	Yes	+$0	03-31 02:11
elon musk of tweets january 13 january 20 420 439	1	$95	95	+95	No	+$0	01-18 02:12
will crude oil cl hit low 70 by march 13 323 755 644	1	$95	95	+95	No	+$0	03-13 11:18
elon musk of tweets march 14 march 16 0 39	1	$95	97	+97	No	+$2	03-16 07:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-27 08:45:22	will bitcoin reach 80k in july 2026	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x4f92f3…
06-15 01:48:54	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	No	BUY	139	99¢	$138	0xbbea44…
06-12 07:51:37	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	No	BUY	139	83¢	$115	0x18275d…
06-10 01:39:57	Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	No	BUY	116	100¢	$116	0xe1c084…
06-07 02:58:09	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	No	BUY	116	100¢	$116	0x8548e5…
06-06 10:40:21	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	No	BUY	116	92¢	$107	0x1c7bdf…
06-04 03:15:22	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	107	100¢	$107	0x1b66be…
06-02 06:45:34	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	106	97¢	$103	0xadec94…
05-30 06:52:20	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0x589db1…
05-28 07:22:22	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	104	99¢	$103	0xc0c1a1…
05-24 07:34:59	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	103	99¢	$102	0x64e5dd…
05-22 02:15:43	Will MrBeast's next video get less than 61 million views on day 6?	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x056dcb…
05-19 07:24:52	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in May 2026?	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xbe49f8…
05-17 08:01:45	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	No	BUY	101	98¢	$99	0xd05e90…
05-15 02:51:39	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0xe86c34…
05-13 09:49:50	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	99	91¢	$90	0x532ad2…
05-08 09:35:37	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0xcdaf3b…
05-07 08:57:13	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	90	83¢	$75	0xf89f9b…
05-06 03:20:06	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0xa7c584…
05-04 03:46:12	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	76	98¢	$74	0x7a993d…
05-03 07:53:44	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	71	100¢	$71	0xbb5872…
04-19 08:53:12	elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 65 89	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0xac8551…
04-14 01:19:11	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 280 299	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x63f540…
04-12 09:47:07	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 180 199	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xa09d8d…
04-07 03:05:31	bitcoin above 60k on april 7	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x3cb9c2…
04-02 08:17:47	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x64109e…
04-02 08:16:37	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x31dacf…
04-02 08:16:23	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x55e48f…
04-02 08:15:45	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x5f34c3…
03-31 02:11:05	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0x071668…
03-26 10:38:39	will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x79868e…
03-26 10:38:33	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 220 239	No	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0x6ad048…
03-22 08:38:29	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 140 159	No	BUY	97	100¢	$97	0xe4bfe7…
03-17 02:48:55	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	98	99¢	$97	0x75f073…
03-16 07:21:41	elon musk of tweets march 14 march 16 0 39	No	BUY	97	98¢	$95	0x740771…
03-13 11:18:17	will crude oil cl hit low 70 by march 13 323 755 644	No	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0xe7f099…
03-10 06:40:57	ethereum above 2300 on march 10	No	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0xa03444…
03-07 02:08:39	will openai have the best ai model for math on march 31	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x03baf7…
03-07 02:08:23	will xai have the 2 ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	3	98¢	$2	0xe1ba81…
03-07 02:08:19	will deepseek have the 2 ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x065800…
03-07 02:08:07	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 140 159	No	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0x83921a…
03-01 06:19:41	will mrbeasts million dollar puzzle be solved by february 28	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf257fa…
03-01 06:19:35	another critical cloudflare incident by february 28 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$2	0x46a667…
03-01 06:19:27	elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 160 179	No	BUY	96	99¢	$95	0x1597fe…
02-12 09:13:53	will the us next strike iran on february 11 2026 et	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0xcb549b…
02-08 03:17:37	elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 140 159	No	BUY	99	100¢	$98	0x26765f…
02-05 08:28:21	elon musk of tweets february 5 february 7 0 39	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x1a3b9d…
02-02 08:52:46	elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 0 39	No	BUY	98	99¢	$97	0x190c46…
01-30 08:48:00	will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	Yes	BUY	97	100¢	$97	0x1f72e9…
01-22 08:35:10	no change in bank of japans interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	96	99¢	$96	0x540d9e…
01-18 02:12:54	elon musk of tweets january 13 january 20 420 439	No	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0xc17f01…
01-16 06:59:40	elon musk of tweets january 15 january 17 40 64	No	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0x925098…
01-11 09:29:48	elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 460 479	No	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0x17c2eb…
01-08 06:34:17	elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 420 439	No	BUY	95	99¢	$95	0x6e96ae…
01-04 02:45:15	elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 380 399	No	BUY	94	100¢	$94	0x3f9d16…