Polite-Half — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

96.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.64K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$45

Open exposure

$12

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 11-05 12:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 48 days

Categories

Crypto

53% 100% +$1

Other

40% 94% -$1

Politics

6% 67% -$3

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No		+12	$12	100¢	$12	$0	11-05 12:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
ethereum above 3000 on january 6	1	$81	81	+81	Yes	+$0	01-06 08:17
bitcoin above 94k on january 10	1	$81	81	+81	No	+$0	01-10 08:56
bitcoin above 98k on january 19	1	$81	81	+81	No	+$0	01-19 08:53
bitcoin above 90k on january 16	1	$80	80	+80	Yes	+$0	01-16 01:24
will the us next strike iran on january 22 2026 et 837	2	$80	1,876	+1,876	No	-$4	01-23 08:33
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 23?	1	$79	79	+79	No	+$0	05-23 02:00
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	1	$79	79	+79	No	+$0	05-11 02:17
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7?	1	$79	79	+79	Yes	+$0	05-07 07:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 16?	1	$79	79	+79	Yes	+$0	05-15 10:40
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?	1	$79	79	+79	No	+$0	06-06 08:44
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	1	$79	79	+79	No	+$0	05-30 06:19
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	1	$79	79	+79	No	+$0	06-02 02:05
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	1	$79	79	+79	No	+$0	06-09 10:41
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	1	$79	79	+79	No	+$0	05-27 02:58
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14?	1	$79	79	+79	Yes	+$0	05-13 07:16
will the price of bitcoin be less than 62000 on march 19	1	$78	78	+78	No	+$0	03-19 09:07
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 560 579	1	$78	78	+78	No	+$0	03-11 03:15
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 340 359	1	$78	78	+78	No	+$0	04-02 09:06
elon musk of tweets march 14 march 16 215 239	1	$78	78	+78	No	+$0	03-15 03:35
ethereum above 1500 on march 5	1	$78	78	+78	Yes	+$0	03-04 09:29
will the price of bitcoin be between 78000 80000 on february 7	1	$78	78	+78	No	+$0	02-07 07:57
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 460 479	1	$77	77	+77	No	+$0	02-28 08:01
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	1	$76	76	+76	No	+$0	03-29 06:59
bitcoin above 64k on march 25	1	$76	76	+76	Yes	+$0	03-25 02:59
bitcoin above 68k on april 22	1	$75	75	+75	Yes	+$0	04-21 09:53
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 400 419	1	$75	75	+75	No	+$0	04-16 09:30
will the price of bitcoin be between 62000 64000 on april 13	1	$75	75	+75	No	+$0	04-13 01:43
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	1	$75	75	+75	No	+$0	04-30 03:54
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$75	75	+75	No	+$0	01-28 03:23
bitcoin above 74k on february 14	1	$75	75	+75	No	+$0	02-14 06:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 12:59:45	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x44dfae…
10-27 04:27:44	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x450c0b…
09-27 11:12:59	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xfa65fa…
09-27 11:09:05	Will Gangwon FC vs. Incheon United FC end in a draw?	No	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0x7ef478…
08-08 09:44:03	will wti dip to 30 in august 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x32213e…
06-09 10:41:30	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	No	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0x337b13…
06-06 08:44:54	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?	No	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0x527813…
06-02 02:05:39	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	No	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0xcc3d23…
05-30 06:19:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0x66f223…
05-27 02:58:17	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0x638782…
05-23 02:00:06	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 23?	No	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0xd04924…
05-15 10:40:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 16?	Yes	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0xbd3004…
05-13 07:16:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0xb37055…
05-11 02:17:40	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0xdc3171…
05-07 07:00:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7?	Yes	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0x596846…
04-30 03:54:34	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0xdf013f…
04-26 03:37:40	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 26?	Yes	BUY	73	100¢	$73	0x7010bb…
04-26 03:37:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 26?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1618c8…
04-26 03:37:12	Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 28?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x70f1bb…
04-26 03:36:56	Will Trump talk to Yoon Suk Yeol in April?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7dbd6b…
04-21 09:53:38	bitcoin above 68k on april 22	Yes	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0x0ed291…
04-21 09:53:24	ethereum above 2500 on april 21	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1ce1e5…
04-16 09:30:24	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 400 419	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0x17760b…
04-16 09:24:30	highest temperature in london on april 16 2026 19c	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x888545…
04-16 09:24:10	Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x361896…
04-13 01:43:55	will the price of bitcoin be between 62000 64000 on april 13	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0x9a90fa…
04-07 07:07:11	bitcoin above 78k on april 8	No	BUY	74	100¢	$74	0x5522f8…
04-07 07:06:59	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xaee2eb…
04-07 07:06:41	Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x718668…
04-07 07:06:19	Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6626aa…
04-07 07:02:39	elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 165 189	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xfce2fb…
04-02 09:06:37	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 340 359	No	BUY	78	100¢	$78	0xf1ad7f…
03-29 06:59:52	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	76	100¢	$76	0xd71b66…
03-25 02:59:21	bitcoin above 64k on march 25	Yes	BUY	76	100¢	$76	0xf7986f…
03-25 02:59:11	will openai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 562	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9da63b…
03-25 02:58:59	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x08468d…
03-19 09:07:17	will the price of bitcoin be less than 62000 on march 19	No	BUY	78	100¢	$78	0xd35d1f…
03-15 03:35:17	elon musk of tweets march 14 march 16 215 239	No	BUY	78	100¢	$78	0x5f3f8f…
03-11 03:15:53	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 560 579	No	BUY	78	100¢	$78	0xab2df9…
03-04 09:29:15	ethereum above 1500 on march 5	Yes	BUY	78	100¢	$78	0xe1aa4b…
02-28 08:01:25	elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 460 479	No	BUY	77	100¢	$77	0x3f8964…
02-14 06:46:29	bitcoin above 74k on february 14	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0xb58f94…
02-14 06:46:21	will baidu have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x70cc40…
02-14 06:46:11	will countdown app be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on february 20	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4c3aa4…
02-07 07:57:23	will the price of bitcoin be between 78000 80000 on february 7	No	BUY	78	100¢	$78	0x3f0494…
02-01 03:09:44	bitcoin above 86k on february 1	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0xd3df70…
02-01 03:09:32	will capcut photo video editor be 1 free app in the us apple app store on february 6	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x182f8b…
02-01 03:09:22	will the highest temperature in new york city be 19f or below on february 1	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x454bf8…
01-28 03:23:45	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0x5e397c…
01-28 03:23:35	will nvidia be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x530b6c…
01-23 08:33:14	will the us next strike iran on january 22 2026 et 837	No	BUY	76	100¢	$76	0x4a815f…
01-23 08:31:50	elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 220 239	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x01cca9…
01-23 08:29:38	will the us next strike iran on january 22 2026 et 837	Yes	BUY	1,800	0¢	$4	0x864afe…
01-19 08:53:14	bitcoin above 98k on january 19	No	BUY	81	100¢	$81	0x6a5291…
01-16 01:24:52	bitcoin above 90k on january 16	Yes	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xf8a93a…
01-16 01:24:42	elon musk of tweets january 2026 1120 1159	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5bbaa0…
01-16 01:24:36	will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 756	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7881fc…
01-10 08:56:00	bitcoin above 94k on january 10	No	BUY	81	100¢	$81	0x3539f8…
01-06 08:17:11	ethereum above 3000 on january 6	Yes	BUY	81	100¢	$81	0x44f5e9…