Nimble-Casualty — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$135

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.0%

Resolved

633

Trades

1,861

lifetime

Volume

$7.32K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-22

last 05-13 17:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

90% 66% $-146

Other

10% 81% +$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 359 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (9) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	3	$20	39	+39	Up	$-20	05-06 09:44
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	2	$20	28	+28	open	—	04-27 12:58
xrp updown 15m 1777014900	1	$20	20	+20	open	—	04-24 07:26
btc updown 15m 1777014900	1	$20	20	+20	open	—	04-24 07:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	2	$15	20	+20	open	—	04-29 07:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	2	$15	21	+21	open	—	04-29 07:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	2	$15	20	+20	open	—	04-29 06:45
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	2	$15	21	+21	open	—	04-29 06:49
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	1	$10	12	+12	open	—	04-27 14:19
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	1	$10	16	+16	Down	+$6	05-06 10:39
BNB Up or Down - May 1, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	2	$10	12	+12	open	—	05-01 06:09
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	1	$10	14	+14	open	—	04-27 13:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	1	$10	14	+14	Up	+$4	05-06 11:54
BNB Up or Down - April 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	1	$10	14	+14	open	—	04-27 14:34
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	1	$10	17	+17	open	—	04-27 15:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	1	$10	15	+15	open	—	04-29 07:59
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	1	$10	13	+13	open	—	04-27 13:08
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	1	$10	26	+26	open	—	04-27 14:44
BNB Up or Down - April 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	1	$10	15	+15	open	—	04-27 14:24
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	1	$10	16	+16	open	—	04-27 13:23
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	1	$10	15	+15	Up	+$5	05-06 12:33
BNB Up or Down - April 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	1	$10	14	+14	open	—	04-27 13:23
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	1	$10	13	+13	Up	+$3	05-06 12:48
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	1	$10	16	+16	open	—	04-27 13:03
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	1	$10	15	+15	Down	$-10	05-06 12:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	1	$10	16	+16	open	—	04-27 13:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	1	$10	14	+14	Up	$-10	05-06 10:29
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	1	$10	17	+17	Down	$-10	05-06 13:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	1	$10	14	+14	Down	$-10	05-06 13:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	2	$10	15	+15	open	—	04-30 18:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-13 17:24:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x0bc4c0…
05-13 17:24:33	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x257b41…
05-13 17:24:19	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xd9afa5…
05-13 16:49:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x986933…
05-13 16:44:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x85e82e…
05-13 16:44:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x0d9978…
05-13 16:39:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x132f0c…
05-13 16:39:19	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x69a78b…
05-13 16:19:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xdd1b6d…
05-13 16:19:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x41208b…
05-13 15:34:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x893020…
05-13 15:34:27	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x4d5b8a…
05-13 15:24:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xba9356…
05-13 15:24:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x797cdc…
05-13 15:04:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xd0784d…
05-13 15:04:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x98b95d…
05-13 14:59:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x7e8c6a…
05-13 14:44:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x6e897c…
05-13 14:39:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xae2e44…
05-13 14:39:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xa65525…
05-13 14:09:18	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x175952…
05-13 13:44:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xe6a9ef…
05-13 13:44:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xe0d763…
05-13 13:34:22	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x7eba35…
05-13 13:34:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x688310…
05-13 13:24:20	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xec95e3…
05-13 13:19:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x169ca1…
05-13 13:19:21	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x56d743…
05-13 13:14:21	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x9e2f6b…
05-13 13:14:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x7505ba…
05-13 13:09:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x9a0dc6…
05-13 12:59:29	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x530817…
05-13 12:54:28	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x1239eb…
05-13 12:29:30	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x1b0c8c…
05-13 12:19:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x6101e6…
05-13 12:14:27	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	65¢	$1	0x4d6500…
05-13 11:59:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xeb3b26…
05-13 11:59:20	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xe00230…
05-13 11:45:01	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x4edfe0…
05-13 11:44:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xa8404f…
05-13 11:39:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x0178d4…
05-13 11:39:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x928240…
05-13 11:19:40	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xa876a2…
05-13 11:04:41	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xa9c558…
05-13 10:59:21	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x9386ed…
05-13 10:59:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xbb7a35…
05-13 10:43:09	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xc738ed…
05-13 10:43:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x48b922…
05-13 10:39:11	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0x7009c3…
05-13 10:38:36	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x4121b4…
05-13 10:38:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x0a593a…
05-13 10:34:37	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x419545…
05-13 10:34:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x3caf13…
05-13 10:34:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x161420…
05-13 10:33:35	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0x36dcb8…
05-13 10:33:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x7ec0c8…
05-13 10:33:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0x30594a…
05-13 10:24:36	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x7dc567…
05-13 10:23:21	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xdc4048…
05-13 10:23:11	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xefd9aa…
05-13 10:23:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf09622…
05-13 10:18:50	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xacac8e…
05-13 10:18:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xabc3c9…
05-13 10:18:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xda5bef…
05-13 09:59:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xb1b20b…
05-13 09:59:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xa09002…
05-13 09:58:27	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x4340e2…
05-13 09:58:09	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xb659fd…
05-13 09:58:06	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x78cdb9…
05-13 09:54:27	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xa3bb7e…
05-13 09:53:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0x96356f…
05-13 09:53:06	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0xf3dc38…
05-13 09:48:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x2ae2ef…
05-13 09:48:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x43b7a8…
05-13 09:44:21	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x90c1f4…
05-13 09:44:21	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x75424d…
05-13 09:38:03	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x66e14b…
05-13 09:19:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x081e95…
05-13 09:14:24	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x1c9b35…
05-13 09:09:18	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x95643f…
05-13 08:49:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x9c0dbd…
05-13 08:34:41	BNB Up or Down - May 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xe13f94…
05-13 08:29:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xc8ac2a…
05-13 08:24:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x54c945…
05-13 08:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x5d2510…
05-13 08:14:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x5ac00d…
05-13 08:14:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x79b49b…
05-13 07:54:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	4	61¢	$2	0xe61cbb…
05-13 07:34:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x088f8b…
05-13 07:29:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x1453c3…
05-13 07:29:17	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xee7028…
05-13 07:24:34	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x470aae…
05-13 07:14:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x5c9c6f…
05-13 06:54:45	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	60¢	$2	0x55f7ae…
05-13 06:49:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	69¢	$2	0xe6d488…
05-13 06:44:57	BNB Up or Down - May 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xb17f0f…
05-13 06:44:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xc355a7…
05-13 06:39:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x176934…
05-13 06:29:47	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xca907e…
05-13 06:09:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x834e69…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Voluminous-Lava 0x46b3…d3de	835	$1.18K	3,685	05-13 09:50
(anonymous) 0x75cc…3ce1	834	$52.0K	6,977	05-13 10:24
(anonymous) 0x38e5…8a4a	823	$109.9K	55,625	05-13 10:24
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	809	$327.2K	24,786	05-13 10:24
Worldly-Shackle 0x941e…1fbf	761	$15.9K	1,624	05-13 10:20
(anonymous) 0x76d4…c512	712	$458.5K	66,218	05-13 10:24
(anonymous) 0x8852…c569	683	$45.0K	14,650	05-13 10:24
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	675	$325.4K	12,971	05-13 10:25