Authorized-Mandolin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$10.1K

Unrealized P&L

+$6

Hit rate

88.2%

Resolved

244

Trades

2,148

lifetime

Volume

$109.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$51

Open exposure

$52

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-31 19:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 96 days

Categories

Other

79% 71% +$9,341

Politics

13% 64% +$347

Tech

6% 75% +$229

Crypto

1% 100% +$88

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Sports

0% 100% +$67

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 41 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No		+200	$41	24¢	$48	+$7	10-31 19:54
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?	Yes		-6	-$3	78¢	$-4	-$1	04-29 19:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Astralis Make a Roster Change before September?	51	$3.5K	2,389	2,389	+0	No	+$879	09-01 06:36
Will Eduardo Camavinga stay at Real Madrid?	23	$3.5K	4,233	1,147	+3,086	Yes	+$1,548	09-01 11:03
will mrbeast say feastables during his next youtube video 20260729175811872	30	$3.2K	3,861	63	+3,798	Yes	+$688	08-06 03:54
Will Jack Grealish join Everton?	46	$2.5K	2,121	2,121	+0	Yes	+$227	07-14 14:38
Will no live-action Miles Morales actor be chosen by end of 2027?	71	$2.4K	3,211	3,211	+0	open	—	10-16 07:32
Will Emiliano Martinez stay at Aston Villa?	19	$2.3K	2,427	679	+1,747	No	-$1,127	08-20 17:22
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?	49	$2.0K	1,574	1,574	+0	open	—	06-17 10:32
will mrbeast say feastables during his next youtube video 20260702154826881	48	$2.0K	2,103	449	+1,654	No	+$458	07-25 16:23
will mrbeast say subscribe or subscribed during his next youtube video 20260729175811875	14	$1.9K	2,345	28	+2,317	No	+$439	08-06 00:16
will mrbeast say feastables during his next youtube video 20260616145800199	28	$1.8K	2,285	0	+2,285	No	+$509	06-27 15:50
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?	17	$1.4K	1,092	969	+124	Yes	+$151	06-28 07:36
will mrbeast say chandler during his next youtube video 20260702154826874	16	$1.3K	1,404	213	+1,191	No	+$301	07-25 16:23
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video?	28	$1.3K	1,783	0	+1,783	No	+$517	05-30 15:43
Will Emiliano Martinez join Al-Hilal?	8	$1.1K	677	677	+0	No	+$190	08-17 16:48
will mrbeast say feastables during his next youtube video 20260609182228663	12	$1.1K	1,475	7	+1,468	Yes	+$380	06-13 15:55
SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?	5	$995	745	745	+0	open	—	10-28 11:37
will betboom make a roster change before september 20260623161949704	39	$994	1,053	781	+272	No	+$404	07-13 19:47
Will no live-action Gwen Stacy actor be chosen by end of 2027?	35	$922	1,592	525	+1,067	open	—	10-15 18:39
Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?	9	$912	1,095	620	+475	open	—	10-26 22:06
will gamerlegion make a roster change before august 20260610173103189	17	$906	650	650	+0	Yes	+$74	07-13 13:52
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by March 31, 2027?	4	$878	887	887	+0	open	—	10-23 20:17
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?	9	$873	1,909	0	+1,909	Yes	-$873	08-30 14:44
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video?	24	$870	547	547	+0	No	+$223	05-16 16:23
Lindsay Hubbard and Matt James confirm relationship in 2026?	15	$870	1,142	317	+825	open	—	10-31 09:34
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid?	28	$857	657	657	+0	Yes	+$143	07-08 01:29
will mrbeast say subscriber during his next youtube video 20260702154826883	6	$849	464	464	+0	No	+$78	07-25 16:27
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	8	$843	850	850	+0	Yes	-$10	06-19 14:38
Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?	12	$831	1,006	1,006	+0	open	—	09-18 23:40
Will Marcus Rashford join Aston Villa?	10	$778	509	509	+0	No	+$132	06-22 00:09
Will Rodri join Real Madrid?	10	$767	881	881	+0	No	+$66	08-06 10:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 19:54:09	Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	200	20¢	$41	0x97ff02…
10-31 19:06:01	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	220	94¢	$207	0x3d19b6…
10-31 19:03:34	Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or below $30 in 2026?	No	BUY	182	61¢	$111	0x31f454…
10-31 18:57:25	Święczkowski reinstated as Constitutional Tribunal President by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	332	60¢	$200	0x06e83f…
10-31 18:50:16	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $25 in 2026?	No	BUY	169	68¢	$115	0x44ce1d…
10-31 17:38:49	Święczkowski reinstated as Constitutional Tribunal President by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	301	74¢	$221	0x7a4096…
10-31 15:57:09	Next Israeli election called by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	250	60¢	$150	0x02de70…
10-31 14:33:07	Alix Earle and Lando Norris confirm relationship in 2026?	No	BUY	44	50¢	$22	0x568bee…
10-31 14:25:45	Jacob Elordi and Kendall Jenner engaged in 2026?	No	BUY	215	59¢	$126	0x3cf40a…
10-31 14:16:43	Will the Democrats win Michigan in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	40	55¢	$22	0x796b77…
10-31 14:07:45	Will the Republicans win Texas in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	478	65¢	$309	0x830638…
10-31 09:34:21	Lindsay Hubbard and Matt James confirm relationship in 2026?	No	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x8a3796…
10-31 09:33:01	Will the Republicans win Iowa in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	40	59¢	$24	0x08be6e…
10-31 09:32:04	Will Ethan Klein livestream again on YouTube in 2026?	No	SELL	395	75¢	$298	0xf73944…
10-31 09:30:31	Will Muse be available on Meta glasses by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	174	61¢	$106	0x7f5718…
10-31 06:24:21	swieczkowski reinstated as constitutional tribunal president by march 31 2027	No	BUY	301	50¢	$150	0x0d9906…
10-30 22:26:34	Decibel FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	42	49¢	$21	0x973493…
10-30 21:08:25	Will Muse be available on Meta glasses by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	151	62¢	$94	0xf4dbe0…
10-30 17:48:01	Will Ethan Klein livestream again on YouTube in 2026?	No	BUY	395	51¢	$200	0x3d1d4f…
10-30 17:25:09	Supreme Court sides with Apple in Epic Games appeal?	Yes	SELL	357	73¢	$262	0xe0c400…
10-30 16:24:52	Closer Senate Race: Maine or Texas?	Maine	SELL	137	44¢	$60	0xab5327…
10-30 12:52:43	Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31?	Yes	SELL	189	100¢	$188	0xab6522…
10-30 11:55:03	Supreme Court sides with Apple in Epic Games appeal?	Yes	BUY	357	56¢	$200	0xfb57a2…
10-30 07:37:54	Court finds BBC liable for defaming Trump?	No	BUY	460	65¢	$300	0x3059d9…
10-30 04:34:39	Will the Republicans win Texas in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	166	66¢	$110	0x637b55…
10-30 04:10:28	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez not run for Senate or President in 2028?	Yes	BUY	230	5¢	$12	0x48bede…
10-30 04:01:13	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Morelos Congress election?	Yes	SELL	147	76¢	$111	0xddaf84…
10-30 03:52:24	Will the Republicans win Florida in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	282	63¢	$179	0x10cfc8…
10-29 17:06:01	Will the Republicans win Ohio in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	279	79¢	$222	0x3176fd…
10-29 17:03:11	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Sinaloa Congress election?	Yes	BUY	122	52¢	$63	0xc0b1a7…
10-29 14:13:07	Will the Democrats win Minnesota in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	14	59¢	$8	0x5ec2d7…
10-29 13:35:47	Will the Republicans win Texas in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	300	60¢	$180	0xe73d76…
10-29 13:06:16	Will the Republicans win Texas in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	40	57¢	$23	0x890051…
10-29 13:01:55	Will the Republicans win Alaska in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	714	61¢	$437	0x0097ce…
10-29 12:38:38	Will the Democrats win New Mexico in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	589	61¢	$359	0xac6dd1…
10-29 12:35:11	Will the Democrats win Virginia in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	350	78¢	$273	0x66e054…
10-29 07:51:29	Israel tourism plunges below 40K by January?	No	SELL	210	77¢	$161	0x1df62d…
10-29 07:50:02	Will ChatGPT Dots be available on the free plan by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	220	60¢	$133	0xebf326…
10-29 07:26:29	Will the Democrats win New Mexico in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	132	59¢	$78	0xebef59…
10-29 07:05:22	Will voter turnout be 70% or higher in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	227	59¢	$133	0x5d675e…
10-29 06:29:43	Will "Mask Off" by Future be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?	No	SELL	156	77¢	$121	0x7b5e1e…
10-29 03:59:16	Will the Democrats win Maine in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	320	61¢	$196	0x28d1a7…
10-29 03:21:58	Will the Republicans win Arizona in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	222	25¢	$56	0xe7499a…
10-29 03:00:49	Will the Democrats win Minnesota in the 2028 Presidential Election?	No	SELL	3	26¢	$1	0x8928fe…
10-29 02:59:20	Will the Democrats win Maine in the 2028 Presidential Election?	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x260e4e…
10-29 02:58:50	Will the Democrats win Minnesota in the 2028 Presidential Election?	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xa6d3ef…
10-29 02:56:43	Will the Republicans win Georgia in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xb465b9…
10-29 02:55:07	Will the Republicans win Ohio in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	279	59¢	$165	0xf71054…
10-29 02:40:07	Will the Republicans win Iowa in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	404	59¢	$239	0x30761c…
10-29 02:22:47	Will the Republicans win Georgia in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x4d6e70…
10-29 02:16:32	Will Alix Earle attend an F1 race in 2026?	No	SELL	14	43¢	$6	0x03b625…
10-29 02:16:23	Will Alix Earle attend an F1 race in 2026?	No	SELL	100	56¢	$56	0x729fdb…
10-29 02:14:23	Israel tourism plunges below 40K by January?	No	BUY	210	56¢	$117	0x122797…
10-28 13:57:34	Will Gyanesh Kumar be out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?	No	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0x140f4c…
10-28 13:57:32	Will Gyanesh Kumar be out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?	No	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0x3be5ea…
10-28 11:37:55	SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	474	72¢	$341	0x1c560f…
10-28 11:35:28	Will RISEx launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	165	73¢	$121	0x437ce9…
10-28 11:26:17	Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	243	41¢	$100	0x5acf9f…
10-28 11:08:43	Will the Republicans win Iowa in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	40	48¢	$19	0x296130…
10-28 07:50:08	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IN-08 House election by 25%-30%?	No	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0xb30f61…
10-28 07:29:53	Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	20¢	$40	0xd87a65…
10-28 05:31:59	Will Codex launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x908675…
10-28 05:31:44	Will Codex launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	181	52¢	$94	0x0ade45…
10-28 05:11:07	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Nayarit Congress election?	Yes	SELL	29	81¢	$23	0xaf2716…
10-28 05:05:29	Will StripChain launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x2335fa…
10-28 05:05:20	Will StripChain launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	36¢	$11	0xd67fa8…
10-28 03:37:04	Will China GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?	No	BUY	188	53¢	$100	0xfcece0…
10-28 02:42:47	Will the Republicans win Arizona in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	40	26¢	$10	0x4d8299…
10-28 01:28:53	Will the Republicans win Texas in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x792316…
10-28 01:26:18	Will the Republicans win Nevada in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	229	33¢	$76	0x8c9b90…
10-28 00:29:06	Will Apostle Mxolisi Phakathi be the next mayor of eThekwini?	Yes	SELL	74	38¢	$28	0xb236a7…
10-28 00:29:00	Will Haniff Hoosen be the next mayor of eThekwini?	No	SELL	519	74¢	$383	0x1dad46…
10-28 00:19:11	Will the Republicans win Arizona in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	65	24¢	$16	0xea66b9…
10-28 00:17:50	Will the Democrats win Virginia in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	350	53¢	$187	0x4cc719…
10-27 09:17:32	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Nayarit Congress election?	Yes	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0xf34a68…
10-27 06:36:11	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont be between 300,000 and 325,000?	No	BUY	307	53¢	$162	0x8028e5…
10-26 22:06:42	Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xf1ece3…
10-26 21:53:23	Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	159	52¢	$83	0x838946…
10-26 21:44:06	Will "Bad and Boujee" by Migos, Lil Uzi Vert be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?	No	BUY	80	60¢	$48	0x099b74…
10-26 21:42:14	Will Codex launch a token by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	13	25¢	$3	0x84b6a2…
10-26 21:34:47	Will Catena launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	30	45¢	$14	0xcf8d67…
10-26 06:43:54	Will GTE launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	60	47¢	$28	0x75d7da…
10-26 05:13:51	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Morelos Congress election?	Yes	BUY	147	54¢	$80	0x60d011…
10-26 05:13:03	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Colima Congress election?	Yes	BUY	114	53¢	$60	0x7acbf6…
10-26 04:44:23	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Colima Congress election?	Yes	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0x0e61cd…
10-26 02:32:23	SlingshotDAO FDV above $8M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	53¢	$16	0x9f5280…
10-26 02:32:18	SlingshotDAO FDV above $8M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	32	53¢	$17	0x28530f…
10-26 02:30:05	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Colima Congress election?	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0xfe0051…
10-26 02:30:05	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Colima Congress election?	Yes	BUY	164	50¢	$83	0x517c4d…
10-26 02:18:54	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	244	61¢	$150	0x539c29…
10-26 01:37:18	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Durango Congress election?	Yes	SELL	708	60¢	$424	0x1bc32b…
10-26 01:22:35	Lindsay Hubbard and Matt James confirm relationship in 2026?	No	BUY	322	67¢	$217	0xf21801…
10-26 01:15:50	Will StripChain launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	182	51¢	$93	0x46651c…
10-26 01:11:47	Will Apostle Mxolisi Phakathi be the next mayor of eThekwini?	Yes	BUY	74	23¢	$17	0xde0574…
10-26 01:04:42	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Nayarit Congress election?	Yes	SELL	85	85¢	$72	0x6a639f…
10-25 08:42:42	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Michoacán Congress election?	Yes	SELL	344	77¢	$265	0x293083…
10-25 03:05:15	Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	220	60¢	$132	0x0d9e82…
10-25 02:40:26	Will N1 launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x593615…
10-25 02:40:21	Will N1 launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	60	42¢	$26	0x82c6b0…
10-25 02:37:20	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Sinaloa Congress election?	Yes	SELL	193	83¢	$160	0x5cb1e9…