Elegant-Lawsuit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$237

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

347

lifetime

Volume

$31.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$89

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 05-13 16:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

55% 0% $-75

Other

32% 0% $-162

Crypto

12% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	14	$6.8K	14,508	11,417	+3,091	open	—	03-30 04:24
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	17	$3.0K	7,308	7,308	+0	open	—	01-31 05:18
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	5	$2.2K	4,233	3,122	+1,111	open	—	02-14 13:53
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$2.1K	1,540	1,540	+0	open	—	03-29 00:31
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?	17	$1.1K	6,419	4,325	+2,095	open	—	01-29 00:18
will the us not strike iran by january 31 2026 314	4	$1.1K	811	811	+0	open	—	01-23 23:44
us strikes iran by february 4 2026	2	$1.0K	913	100	+813	open	—	02-04 00:26
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?	3	$990	781	781	+0	open	—	02-14 13:37
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	2	$703	6,412	6,412	+0	open	—	03-29 00:38
us strike on somalia by february 7 553	5	$682	1,111	1,111	+0	open	—	02-07 14:25
bitcoin above 58k on february 12	4	$658	2,108	1,339	+769	open	—	02-05 23:42
btc updown 4h 1770325200	3	$654	1,074	385	+690	open	—	02-06 00:01
us strike on somalia by january 31 338	5	$595	2,301	0	+2,301	open	—	01-23 18:14
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	4	$580	1,887	0	+1,887	open	—	02-03 17:55
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	12	$497	10,629	629	+10,000	open	—	02-09 15:53
will no qualifying us iran meeting occur by february 13 2026	2	$465	500	500	+0	open	—	02-06 14:27
Will the US strike Somalia next?	2	$451	251	251	+0	open	—	02-20 01:36
bitcoin above 60k on february 12	2	$445	909	909	+0	open	—	02-05 23:07
will bitcoin dip to 60k in february 2026 394 616	2	$432	263	263	+0	open	—	02-06 00:17
bitcoin above 62k on february 12	2	$426	645	645	+0	open	—	02-05 23:07
bitcoin above 64k on february 12	2	$424	488	488	+0	open	—	02-05 23:07
will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	4	$343	456	456	+0	open	—	02-14 13:35
israel strikes iran by january 26 2026	4	$328	520	520	+0	open	—	01-24 23:54
will house and senate pass funding bill by january 30 2026	6	$300	1,013	1,013	+0	open	—	01-29 00:19
will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by february 28 2026 369	2	$275	238	238	+0	open	—	02-20 01:37
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	8	$258	3,709	102	+3,607	Yes	$-162	05-13 16:32
us strike on somalia by february 14	2	$251	218	218	+0	open	—	02-11 04:02
Will the US strike Somalia next?	2	$221	122	122	+0	open	—	02-10 16:00
will bitcoin dip to 55k in february 2026 644 513 935	2	$204	336	0	+336	open	—	02-06 00:15
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$183	435	435	+0	open	—	01-25 00:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-13 16:32:52	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	400	5¢	$20	0x8f446e…
05-13 16:31:26	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	408	5¢	$20	0x4aa7b5…
05-13 16:30:58	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	61	33¢	$20	0x9d5bcb…
05-13 16:30:00	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	201	5¢	$10	0xc9726f…
05-13 16:29:10	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$10	0xdfd7bf…
05-09 18:45:13	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	1,020	5¢	$50	0x597b98…
05-09 18:42:34	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	1,020	5¢	$50	0x82056a…
05-07 21:19:12	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	557	9¢	$50	0x148b18…
05-07 21:16:03	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	No	BUY	131	14¢	$19	0xc999f5…
05-07 21:10:53	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	No	BUY	104	5¢	$5	0xe71e7e…
05-07 18:37:31	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	No	BUY	256	4¢	$10	0x5dde5f…
05-07 18:36:34	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	No	BUY	397	13¢	$50	0x59a4f2…
05-07 18:24:57	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	61	33¢	$20	0xbc0c38…
04-23 02:54:38	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xbd64c5…
04-23 02:53:40	nba phx okc 2026 04 22	Suns	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xaf468e…
04-20 00:40:32	nba orl det 2026 04 19	Magic	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0x3f5024…
03-30 04:24:12	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	2,145	93¢	$2,001	0x1963cf…
03-30 04:18:42	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	3,091	6¢	$194	0x51a364…
03-29 01:13:38	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	73	89¢	$65	0x89b520…
03-29 00:56:22	jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	Yes	SELL	347	19¢	$65	0x7459cf…
03-29 00:43:32	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	2,072	90¢	$1,865	0x7b5c58…
03-29 00:38:04	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	Yes	SELL	6,412	3¢	$203	0x234096…
03-29 00:37:30	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	6,181	10¢	$618	0xbb139c…
03-29 00:31:22	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,540	68¢	$1,044	0xd18cc0…
03-28 20:18:16	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,540	69¢	$1,062	0xe50024…
03-28 20:15:56	will israel take military action in lebanon on march 20 2026	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x8414a6…
03-28 18:31:01	will israel take military action in lebanon on march 20 2026	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x89569d…
03-28 17:06:43	will israel take military action in lebanon on march 20 2026	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0xeb49eb…
03-28 00:03:23	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	Yes	BUY	6,412	8¢	$500	0x4eac28…
03-27 23:46:37	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	46	17¢	$8	0xf6956e…
03-27 23:44:33	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	2,222	18¢	$400	0x850964…
03-27 23:42:41	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	5,556	18¢	$1,000	0x888e88…
03-26 21:18:13	will israel take military action in lebanon on march 20 2026	No	BUY	1,708	0¢	$5	0x3927ad…
03-26 21:14:15	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	429	14¢	$60	0xb695c1…
03-26 21:12:39	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	Yes	SELL	132	9¢	$12	0xe07844…
03-26 21:12:25	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	SELL	102	47¢	$48	0xe840db…
03-26 21:09:35	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	2,211	14¢	$300	0xd40883…
03-26 21:01:29	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	238	16¢	$38	0xcfba9f…
03-26 21:00:05	Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by March 31?	Yes	SELL	236	14¢	$33	0xc04443…
03-26 20:59:09	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	714	14¢	$100	0x97de17…
03-26 20:57:17	JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by March 31?	Yes	SELL	53	10¢	$5	0xbb1735…
03-26 20:56:33	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	233	15¢	$35	0x177914…
03-26 20:55:41	Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by March 31?	Yes	SELL	236	15¢	$35	0x70086e…
03-26 20:53:41	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	714	14¢	$100	0xef17ad…
03-25 20:31:43	Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by March 31?	Yes	BUY	471	21¢	$100	0x2c3d69…
03-25 20:27:23	JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by March 31?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x5b2744…
03-25 20:23:43	jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	Yes	BUY	347	29¢	$100	0x7bfa60…
03-25 20:15:19	will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 947	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0xb4b17d…
03-25 20:14:27	will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 947	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x4760b1…
03-08 17:42:41	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	Yes	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0xd3ad92…
03-08 17:40:29	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	102	10¢	$10	0x6f5c82…
03-08 17:40:11	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	Yes	BUY	132	38¢	$50	0x24b7e3…
03-04 15:00:37	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	124	16¢	$20	0x5938c1…
03-04 14:57:57	will us or israel strike iran on march 5 2026	No	BUY	356	1¢	$3	0xcbe04d…
03-01 22:08:19	will us or israel strike iran on march 2 2026	No	BUY	952	2¢	$20	0xb1503b…
03-01 22:07:49	will us or israel strike iran on march 5 2026	No	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x3009b0…
03-01 22:07:19	will us or israel strike iran on march 4 2026	No	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0xb0793e…
03-01 22:06:29	will us or israel strike iran on march 2 2026	No	BUY	493	2¢	$10	0x18285d…
03-01 22:06:03	will us or israel strike iran on march 3 2026	No	BUY	306	3¢	$10	0xe18cf9…
02-20 01:37:52	will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by february 28 2026 369	No	SELL	238	73¢	$175	0x1f2455…
02-20 01:36:52	Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	SELL	251	100¢	$251	0x1ba803…
02-17 00:28:27	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison?	No	BUY	95	5¢	$5	0xb4b9af…
02-17 00:26:37	Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	BUY	251	80¢	$200	0x9b812f…
02-17 00:24:51	us strike on somalia by february 21	No	BUY	179	28¢	$50	0xd6cdd0…
02-17 00:21:31	us x iran meeting by february 28 2026	No	BUY	374	3¢	$10	0x0b4fe4…
02-17 00:12:05	will jd vance say crypto or bitcoin during the fundraiser	Yes	BUY	113	9¢	$10	0xee3471…
02-14 13:53:09	Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	Yes	BUY	1,111	27¢	$300	0xde7b7b…
02-14 13:47:05	will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by february 28 2026 369	No	BUY	238	42¢	$100	0x687726…
02-14 13:41:43	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	131	1¢	$1	0x824054…
02-14 13:37:49	Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	391	62¢	$244	0xf31e7c…
02-14 13:35:49	will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	Yes	SELL	99	88¢	$87	0xf9882b…
02-14 13:33:35	will jd vance say crypto or bitcoin during the fundraiser	Yes	BUY	77	26¢	$20	0xb5c1db…
02-14 13:30:19	another us government shutdown by february 14	No	SELL	59	98¢	$58	0x53fe52…
02-12 02:14:59	another us government shutdown by february 14	No	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0xf439b6…
02-11 04:07:31	will bernie sanders say affordability during the fighting oligarchy rally	Yes	BUY	333	30¢	$100	0x61d21f…
02-11 04:04:07	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	385	16¢	$60	0x0cf4fe…
02-11 04:02:09	us strike on somalia by february 14	Yes	SELL	218	60¢	$130	0x9f7ff7…
02-11 04:01:23	Will the US strike 3 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,755	2¢	$35	0x64b812…
02-10 16:05:09	will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	Yes	BUY	99	79¢	$78	0xa21ea6…
02-10 16:04:43	will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	No	SELL	357	22¢	$79	0xac2cd7…
02-10 16:04:09	us strike on somalia by february 14	Yes	BUY	218	56¢	$121	0x104026…
02-10 16:00:53	Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	SELL	122	99¢	$121	0x595bac…
02-10 02:45:31	will the bad bunny apple music super bowl halftime show video get between 40 and 50 million views on day 1	No	BUY	2,120	5¢	$100	0x82b995…
02-10 02:29:33	btc updown 15m 1770689700	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x339e41…
02-10 00:29:15	will bernie sanders say crypto or bitcoin during the fighting oligarchy rally	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x1e17b4…
02-10 00:28:47	will bernie sanders say zuckerberg or bezos 8 times during the fighting oligarchy rally	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x06f88c…
02-10 00:28:13	will bernie sanders say affordability during the fighting oligarchy rally	Yes	BUY	56	36¢	$20	0x3cf40d…
02-10 00:27:07	will bernie sanders say elon or musk 4 times during the fighting oligarchy rally	No	BUY	108	46¢	$50	0xa0d1e6…
02-10 00:08:23	Will the US strike 3 countries in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,755	6¢	$100	0x19e1e0…
02-09 23:54:33	Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0x6ad883…
02-09 23:42:47	btc updown 15m 1770679800	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xee5eee…
02-09 23:38:21	btc updown 15m 1770679800	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x9f173a…
02-09 23:30:29	btc updown 15m 1770679800	Down	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x4a21a7…
02-09 23:26:43	btc updown 15m 1770678900	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xc6ca47…
02-09 23:25:47	btc updown 15m 1770678900	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xc21184…
02-09 23:24:43	btc updown 15m 1770678900	Up	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x1f9024…
02-09 23:22:39	btc updown 15m 1770678900	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x21aedd…
02-09 23:21:29	btc updown 15m 1770678900	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x12cd37…
02-09 23:17:15	btc updown 15m 1770678900	Down	SELL	22	60¢	$13	0x2954ca…
02-09 23:15:41	btc updown 15m 1770678900	Down	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xc76b49…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	93	$12.1M	15,168	05-16 00:50
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	93	$123.0K	11,191	03-28 13:00
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	90	$75.0K	6,338	05-16 13:46
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	90	$19.9K	4,139	05-16 15:05
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	88	$37.6K	13,387	04-17 01:03
Vacant-Challenge 0x3078…0389	79	$196.5K	24,143	04-08 16:46
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	78	$467.0K	8,711	05-16 00:47
(anonymous) 0x945a…a48c	76	$7.76K	4,724	05-16 09:58