Villainous-Referendum — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

21.9%

Resolved

Trades

164

lifetime

Volume

$7.91K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$48

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-04

last 07-26 07:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

53% 100% +$4

Crypto

27% 0% $-1

Politics

20% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	21	$1.0K	2,283	2,537	-254	open	—	06-26 20:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	19	$572	590	390	+200	open	—	06-14 10:01
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	2	$487	251	251	+0	open	—	07-01 16:13
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	3	$456	232	435	-203	open	—	05-29 18:40
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	7	$413	630	630	+0	open	—	06-26 16:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4	$410	215	215	+0	open	—	05-29 09:43
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	2	$354	195	195	+0	open	—	05-07 21:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$352	239	239	+0	open	—	05-24 08:37
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	4	$262	0	2,621	-2,621	open	—	05-31 13:36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	5	$223	296	296	+0	open	—	05-19 18:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$210	200	200	+0	open	—	06-27 01:17
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 19-25?	2	$208	109	109	+0	open	—	05-25 16:37
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	2	$200	625	625	+0	open	—	06-04 13:09
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	1	$192	0	282	-282	open	—	06-13 18:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	2	$185	100	100	+0	open	—	06-03 12:12
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?	8	$184	155	50	+105	open	—	05-17 15:27
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	4	$183	275	0	+275	open	—	06-03 12:12
Will STRC market cap hit $12B by June 30?	3	$180	100	100	+0	open	—	06-24 16:35
microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase march 31 april 6	2	$168	174	0	+174	open	—	04-01 19:08
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	4	$151	320	0	+320	open	—	04-13 11:46
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	1	$150	165	0	+165	open	—	03-24 06:21
microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase june 2 8	7	$126	230	0	+230	open	—	06-07 15:58
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	2	$107	136	132	+3	open	—	04-11 00:30
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 5-11?	3	$107	55	55	+0	Yes	$-1	05-11 11:43
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	4	$104	157	0	+157	open	—	04-11 11:16
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	2	$95	60	60	+0	open	—	04-07 15:14
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	2	$92	200	200	+0	open	—	06-26 20:37
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 30 july 6	2	$80	177	177	+0	open	—	07-06 12:07
microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase february 3 9	4	$78	212	0	+212	open	—	02-06 18:27
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082 171 832	1	$76	90	0	+90	open	—	07-09 07:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-26 07:12:49	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	99	69¢	$69	0x9d9852…
07-09 07:57:13	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082 171 832	No	BUY	90	84¢	$76	0x1bdcb1…
07-06 12:07:55	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 30 july 6	Yes	SELL	177	0¢	$0	0x3f2966…
07-01 16:13:01	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	251	100¢	$251	0xe67aa4…
07-01 16:11:41	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 30 july 6	Yes	BUY	177	45¢	$80	0x828687…
06-27 01:17:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	53¢	$106	0x6f8f66…
06-26 21:05:43	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	251	94¢	$236	0xae1362…
06-26 20:44:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0xd0a4a4…
06-26 20:37:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	400	5¢	$20	0xd2ce94…
06-26 20:37:32	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	Yes	SELL	200	21¢	$42	0xa4f624…
06-26 18:50:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0x1a3d20…
06-26 17:45:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0x1056a3…
06-26 16:10:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	545	33¢	$180	0x732539…
06-26 16:07:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	85	33¢	$28	0x43ea3f…
06-26 15:34:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	200	34¢	$68	0x42cd65…
06-26 13:18:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	100	11¢	$11	0xe94d0c…
06-26 12:38:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	337	10¢	$35	0xee1a7b…
06-26 11:04:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	300	10¢	$31	0xf33338…
06-26 11:02:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	200	10¢	$21	0x1cb1e2…
06-26 11:01:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	200	11¢	$22	0x3cb607…
06-26 10:58:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0xc53511…
06-26 10:44:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0x581428…
06-26 04:26:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	100	16¢	$16	0xc04e6a…
06-25 15:26:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xd36d9f…
06-25 13:20:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	200	18¢	$36	0x987918…
06-25 13:17:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	100	14¢	$14	0xb74f30…
06-25 12:55:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	200	13¢	$25	0x3ded6c…
06-24 16:36:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x0bf56f…
06-24 16:35:52	Will STRC market cap hit $12B by June 30?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x650008…
06-22 21:17:17	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	289	32¢	$93	0x523412…
06-22 21:16:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0xa584fc…
06-22 21:15:26	Will STRC market cap hit $12B by June 30?	No	SELL	96	98¢	$94	0x298f0a…
06-22 21:14:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	120	32¢	$38	0x1f807f…
06-18 13:32:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	200	13¢	$26	0xa73686…
06-17 05:47:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	200	18¢	$36	0x198ab6…
06-15 07:26:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0xe00722…
06-14 22:31:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1,083	27¢	$288	0x8f8bac…
06-14 22:28:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	300	68¢	$204	0x7ed2f9…
06-14 16:32:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x784e76…
06-14 10:01:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	170	49¢	$83	0x0a30bf…
06-14 09:59:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	16	49¢	$8	0x36a28e…
06-14 09:46:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x792cac…
06-14 09:46:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	49¢	$6	0xdbab3d…
06-14 09:40:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	94	50¢	$47	0xddbc24…
06-14 09:19:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	56	49¢	$28	0xfb799b…
06-14 09:19:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x412804…
06-14 09:19:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x280f21…
06-14 09:16:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x1f301e…
06-14 09:15:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xb0d8dc…
06-14 09:15:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x2d4303…
06-14 09:15:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x2a4157…
06-14 09:15:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xd690ab…
06-14 09:09:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0xb2e318…
06-14 09:09:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	98	49¢	$48	0xa4c9da…
06-13 23:28:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	140	53¢	$74	0xbe411c…
06-13 18:58:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x5262b3…
06-13 18:56:33	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	282	68¢	$192	0x9728db…
06-11 06:40:39	will bitcoin dip to 62k on june 11	Yes	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0x5ddae9…
06-11 06:39:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	84¢	$42	0x57c9b7…
06-10 12:02:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	190	84¢	$160	0x71e23f…
06-07 15:58:01	microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xa94aa1…
06-07 13:46:16	microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0xd61589…
06-05 19:22:39	microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	95	34¢	$32	0x3ea744…
06-05 16:45:28	microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	1	34¢	$0	0xe547c1…
06-05 15:17:28	microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	4	34¢	$1	0xb9068e…
06-04 13:17:51	will bitcoin dip to 60k in june 2026	Yes	BUY	78	66¢	$52	0x5ac37c…
06-04 13:10:51	microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	12	22¢	$3	0x688744…
06-04 13:09:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	625	16¢	$100	0x496787…
06-03 12:12:41	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	Yes	BUY	119	80¢	$95	0x005d56…
06-03 12:12:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x1ad0bc…
06-03 12:10:00	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	Yes	BUY	116	59¢	$68	0xc60024…
06-03 10:11:54	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8?	Yes	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0xa59040…
06-03 09:12:31	Will STRC market cap hit $12B by June 30?	No	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x3f0eb4…
06-02 19:59:18	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xb3717b…
06-02 16:43:27	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xe37ab1…
06-01 05:27:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	625	16¢	$100	0xcb1f92…
05-31 15:27:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x07290b…
05-31 13:36:38	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,421	7¢	$104	0x5c4e2d…
05-29 18:40:57	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	435	66¢	$287	0xbc228e…
05-29 09:44:38	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	73¢	$110	0x724d0b…
05-29 09:43:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	115	99¢	$114	0x4c565b…
05-29 08:13:29	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	71¢	$59	0x09cd91…
05-29 02:33:16	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	101	20¢	$20	0xeb2416…
05-29 02:32:48	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	199	20¢	$39	0xfeeab1…
05-28 03:11:34	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	900	11¢	$99	0x0522d5…
05-26 23:53:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0x8afd97…
05-25 16:38:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	112	97¢	$108	0x4d8dae…
05-25 16:37:14	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 19-25?	No	SELL	109	100¢	$108	0x6fb621…
05-24 08:39:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	103	87¢	$90	0xa363c9…
05-24 08:37:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	139	64¢	$89	0x84228c…
05-22 13:44:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	139	76¢	$106	0x504adf…
05-19 18:30:15	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 19-25?	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x11de1a…
05-19 18:20:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	Yes	SELL	247	40¢	$99	0xb5b4d1…
05-17 15:27:18	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?	Yes	BUY	11	83¢	$9	0xc793c0…
05-17 15:26:45	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?	Yes	BUY	13	83¢	$11	0x2998ed…
05-17 15:17:55	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?	Yes	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xe32313…
05-17 15:11:16	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?	Yes	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x9c6f35…
05-17 15:01:38	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?	Yes	BUY	39	83¢	$33	0x530269…
05-17 14:46:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	91¢	$91	0x267c98…
05-15 08:28:11	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?	Yes	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0xc63361…