Carefree-Sauce — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.60K

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

98.1%

Resolved

13,814

Trades

49,325

lifetime

Volume

$2.93M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$59

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-21 04:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 284 days

Categories

Other

89% 98% +$3,474

Politics

6% 90% +$19

Crypto

5% 95% +$222

Sports

0% 82% -$119

Tech

0% 88% +$4

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

68 active days in 12wk • peak 150 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No		+7	$6	76¢	$5	-$1	09-14 23:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
highest temperature in nyc on february 4 2026 40 41f	83	$6.3K	3,880	2,546	+1,334	No	-$32	02-04 21:07
bitcoin up or down january 9 7am et	12	$6.0K	3,000	3,000	+0	Down	+$28	01-09 13:05
bitcoin up or down january 27 7am et	15	$6.0K	4,000	2,000	+2,000	Down	+$43	01-27 13:03
bitcoin up or down january 9 6am et	4	$5.9K	3,003	3,003	+0	Down	+$59	01-09 12:34
will trump say american dream during wef address on january 21	29	$4.2K	2,262	1,945	+317	Yes	+$11	01-21 16:33
will starmer say u turn during the next prime ministers questions event 972	11	$4.1K	1,313	2,802	-1,489	Yes	+$13	03-18 13:04
highest temperature in nyc on january 24 26forhigher	54	$3.8K	2,431	1,389	+1,042	No	+$9	01-24 20:23
bitcoin up or down february 5 10am et	51	$3.8K	1,979	1,979	+0	Down	+$8	02-05 15:56
highest temperature in atlanta on february 10 2026 58 59f	100	$3.7K	1,763	1,972	-209	No	+$10	02-10 16:33
highest temperature in nyc on april 14 2026 90forhigher	92	$3.7K	2,266	1,466	+800	No	+$6	04-14 20:30
will starmer say police during the next prime ministers questions event	12	$3.5K	2,662	858	+1,804	No	+$26	03-25 13:36
highest temperature in nyc on february 8 2026 24 25f	81	$3.5K	1,747	1,747	+0	No	+$11	02-08 20:14
highest temperature in nyc on march 1 2026 46forhigher	24	$3.4K	2,539	839	+1,700	No	+$19	03-02 02:24
highest temperature in nyc on january 20 28 29f	28	$3.3K	1,493	1,815	-322	No	+$9	01-20 20:23
highest temperature in toronto on january 29 neg 9c	9	$3.3K	1,803	1,495	+309	No	+$43	01-29 22:11
highest temperature in nyc on march 2 2026 40 41f	55	$3.2K	1,923	1,318	+605	No	+$17	03-02 21:04
bitcoin up or down february 4 9am et	5	$3.2K	1,737	1,737	+0	Down	-$182	02-04 15:04
highest temperature in toronto on february 23 2026 neg 1c	19	$3.2K	1,758	1,437	+320	Yes	+$15	02-23 18:53
highest temperature in nyc on january 11 52forhigher	11	$3.1K	1,533	1,533	+0	No	+$4	01-11 15:21
bitcoin up or down february 14 12pm et	8	$3.0K	1,515	1,515	+0	Down	+$19	02-14 18:01
bitcoin up or down january 7 9am et	8	$3.0K	1,533	1,533	+0	Down	+$11	01-07 15:06
bitcoin up or down january 8 11am et	12	$3.0K	1,502	1,502	+0	Up	+$14	01-08 17:04
bitcoin up or down january 22 10am et	2	$3.0K	1,500	1,500	+0	Down	+$14	01-22 16:02
bitcoin up or down january 2 11am et	83	$2.9K	4,310	1,487	+2,824	Up	-$6	01-02 16:59
highest temperature in ankara on february 12 2026 12c	14	$2.9K	1,396	1,508	-111	No	+$6	02-12 18:58
highest temperature in seattle on january 27 54forhigher	14	$2.8K	2,887	0	+2,887	No	+$49	01-27 22:07
highest temperature in nyc on january 11 50 51f	20	$2.8K	1,288	1,519	-231	No	+$8	01-11 19:55
highest temperature in dallas on february 13 2026 68forhigher	100	$2.8K	1,108	1,699	-591	Yes	+$7	02-13 16:48
will the highest temperature in new york city be 39f or higher on february 2	6	$2.8K	1,190	1,590	-400	No	+$9	02-02 21:17
highest temperature in nyc on march 12 2026 60forhigher	22	$2.7K	1,573	1,194	+380	No	+$26	03-12 20:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 04:24:44	Will Andy Burnham not participate in the next PMQ?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xa009af…
10-16 15:00:34	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hillary Clinton by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x5649e7…
10-13 12:30:23	Will Andy Burnham say "Mr Speaker" 12+ times during the next PMQ?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x8955fe…
10-12 11:53:21	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x0732aa…
10-11 09:28:07	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x4610c9…
10-07 14:06:53	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0xf67dc9…
10-06 22:15:51	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x6636f3…
10-06 20:24:32	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on October 6?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xeff00a…
10-05 18:14:25	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on October 5?	No	BUY	101	100¢	$100	0xef514d…
10-04 17:12:34	Will Trump post "President Xi" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x363a75…
10-04 17:12:28	Will Trump post "China" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0xb370a2…
10-01 13:39:48	Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in September?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x9dbf54…
10-01 13:15:17	Will anyone say "Jury" during Big Brother E41?	No	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0xf73d5b…
10-01 07:10:59	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on September 30?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x73b7ee…
10-01 05:59:38	Will anyone say "Jury" during Big Brother E41?	No	SELL	7	19¢	$1	0x08edf4…
10-01 02:59:15	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x9ac7e7…
10-01 01:09:09	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 1?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x88846a…
10-01 01:09:09	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C or below on October 1?	No	BUY	187	100¢	$187	0x74eb0a…
10-01 01:09:06	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C or below on October 1?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x5bdc30…
10-01 01:09:06	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on October 1?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x038abd…
09-30 23:58:35	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on September 30?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xaaac4a…
09-30 22:12:36	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on September 30?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8a8c93…
09-30 21:15:08	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on September 30?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xa9b992…
09-30 21:08:02	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on October 1?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x835f16…
09-30 21:07:02	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or below on October 1?	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x0061e4…
09-30 21:06:51	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on October 1?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x68e6b3…
09-30 21:05:20	Will the lowest temperature in Helsinki be 4°C on September 30?	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xb7261f…
09-30 21:04:08	Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on September 30?	No	BUY	65	100¢	$65	0xabc634…
09-30 21:02:06	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on September 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe93b3c…
09-30 21:02:06	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on September 30?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x97fa0c…
09-30 21:00:18	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x26ea4e…
09-30 21:00:05	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on September 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x46944d…
09-30 20:57:08	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on October 1?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x43a71a…
09-30 20:57:06	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on October 1?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa520b6…
09-30 20:57:05	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on October 1?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd821c5…
09-30 20:57:05	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on October 1?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9aa44d…
09-30 20:57:05	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on October 1?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x579b05…
09-30 20:57:03	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on October 1?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x679fe1…
09-30 20:57:03	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on October 1?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x1e4871…
09-30 20:57:03	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on October 1?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0c057a…
09-30 20:57:02	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on October 1?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc37c0b…
09-30 20:57:02	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on October 1?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa695be…
09-30 20:57:00	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on October 1?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xdaf7ee…
09-30 20:57:00	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on October 1?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbd55f0…
09-30 20:57:00	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on October 1?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xacf5d6…
09-30 20:57:00	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on October 1?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x99b835…
09-30 20:57:00	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on October 1?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x906c0a…
09-30 20:57:00	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on October 1?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x7fdfff…
09-30 20:57:00	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on October 1?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4ec363…
09-30 20:56:59	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on October 1?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf4d3df…
09-30 20:56:59	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on October 1?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe031b8…
09-30 20:55:23	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on September 30?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x358407…
09-30 20:52:54	will bitcoin reach 90k in september 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x671149…
09-30 20:52:38	will bitcoin dip to 75k in september 2026 from september 16	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x3e4090…
09-30 20:52:29	will bitcoin dip to 77pt5k in september 2026 from september 18	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x09c2a9…
09-30 20:21:00	Will anyone say "Veto" 5+ times during Big Brother E41?	No	SELL	13	20¢	$3	0xd22319…
09-30 19:24:23	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C or higher on September 30?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd3743b…
09-30 19:23:27	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on September 30?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb84d7e…
09-30 19:19:12	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on September 30?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xbe5333…
09-30 19:04:12	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hillary Clinton by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x27b3e6…
09-30 19:03:47	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	21	73¢	$15	0xfa6edf…
09-30 19:01:05	Will anyone say "Final" during Big Brother E41?	No	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0x2de330…
09-30 18:29:24	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 53°F or below on September 30?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xf23c27…
09-30 18:26:18	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on October 1?	No	BUY	93	99¢	$92	0x373e16…
09-30 17:04:53	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on October 1?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x824d2c…
09-30 15:04:06	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on October 1?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa6ccd7…
09-30 15:04:06	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on October 1?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x976f31…
09-30 15:04:06	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 1?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x78979a…
09-30 14:06:29	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 1?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x09bfeb…
09-30 14:06:17	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 1?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xc4a3e7…
09-30 14:03:29	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 1?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x757253…
09-30 14:03:03	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 1?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xbddd78…
09-30 14:02:56	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 1?	No	BUY	58	100¢	$58	0xfe4924…
09-30 13:44:21	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on September 30?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x98fc15…
09-30 13:20:41	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on October 1?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x20574a…
09-30 13:14:30	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on October 1?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x3bb7fc…
09-30 13:14:20	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on October 1?	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x08a43f…
09-30 13:04:48	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C or higher on September 30?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xee9ac3…
09-30 12:45:48	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on September 30?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x8e84b4…
09-30 12:44:36	Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or higher on September 30?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xd61059…
09-30 12:11:21	Will Trump praise Nicki Minaj in September?	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0xe6ecfb…
09-30 12:11:05	Will Trump praise Warren Buffett in September?	No	BUY	14	97¢	$14	0x65f9a6…
09-30 12:09:14	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x7e61eb…
09-30 12:08:51	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x7acf99…
09-30 08:53:03	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on October 1?	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0xe7c504…
09-30 07:53:48	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C or higher on September 30?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x14b7e2…
09-30 07:18:51	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or higher on September 30?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x348dae…
09-30 07:18:35	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on September 30?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x044e25…
09-30 07:01:39	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on September 30?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x54fb5f…
09-30 06:52:29	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on September 30?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x59b98e…
09-30 05:21:50	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on September 30?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x9a0398…
09-30 04:36:05	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on October 1?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xbec833…
09-30 04:17:23	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 29?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xd16df4…
09-30 04:14:05	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on September 30?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc61649…
09-30 03:57:20	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on September 30?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x7c3135…
09-30 03:07:32	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on September 30?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x288e40…
09-30 03:07:23	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on September 30?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x21d9eb…
09-30 01:32:59	Will Andy Burnham not participate in the next PMQ?	Yes	SELL	110	99¢	$109	0x3f5ed2…
09-29 23:04:36	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on September 29?	Yes	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x8ea43c…
09-29 23:03:05	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on September 29?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x51948d…