Careful-Providence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5.68K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

69.4%

Resolved

352

Trades

3,413

lifetime

Volume

$718.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$211

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-31

last 07-02 00:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 93 days

Categories

Other

75% 76% -$28,086

Politics

16% 67% +$23,298

Sports

7% 77% +$118

Tech

2% 50% -$254

Crypto

1% 66% -$759

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-02).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	191	$36.5K	198,348	198,348	+0	No	-$28,857	03-25 14:18
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	53	$35.3K	55,222	55,222	+0	Yes	+$20,566	02-28 16:38
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	260	$26.4K	25,733	25,733	+0	No	-$3,392	05-15 14:22
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?	59	$17.1K	24,080	24,080	+0	No	-$459	06-17 20:03
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	3	$15.8K	7,919	7,919	+0	Yes	+$32	04-08 01:50
nba por sas 2026 04 08	4	$13.8K	6,942	6,941	+1	Spurs	+$35	04-09 04:16
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	11	$12.5K	6,685	6,685	+0	No	+$878	05-08 07:03
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	46	$11.2K	6,749	6,749	+0	Yes	-$439	05-12 16:02
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	26	$10.2K	10,615	2,058	+8,557	Yes	+$253	05-08 07:37
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	103	$9.0K	20,161	15,716	+4,445	No	+$3,874	05-01 02:56
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	24	$8.5K	6,591	3,288	+3,303	No	-$521	05-01 15:39
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	21	$8.1K	5,724	5,724	+0	No	-$20	05-15 05:48
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 260 279	11	$7.6K	4,360	3,477	+883	No	+$179	04-21 15:39
cbb ill hou 2026 03 26	1	$7.5K	7,744	0	+7,744	Illinois Fighting Illini	+$245	03-27 03:37
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?	5	$7.4K	4,781	4,781	+0	Yes	-$467	05-13 15:12
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	3	$7.4K	4,500	4,500	+0	Yes	+$1,588	03-08 21:15
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	27	$6.9K	3,679	3,679	+0	Yes	+$135	06-12 18:50
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	49	$6.6K	4,650	4,650	+0	Yes	+$2,650	05-11 16:39
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	20	$6.5K	6,628	1,157	+5,471	Yes	+$715	05-01 13:04
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	44	$6.3K	5,910	5,910	+0	Yes	+$638	05-15 14:06
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	25	$5.7K	4,500	1,500	+3,000	Yes	+$114	06-02 19:45
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?	4	$5.6K	5,569	100	+5,469	No	+$48	05-22 22:46
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	4	$5.3K	2,700	2,700	+0	No	+$76	05-17 20:28
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	20	$5.3K	2,685	2,685	-0	No	+$83	06-05 21:05
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	7	$5.2K	2,720	2,720	+0	No	+$188	06-12 15:55
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	30	$5.1K	4,668	1,000	+3,668	Yes	-$107	05-22 14:13
nba orl bos 2026 04 12	3	$5.1K	5,130	0	+5,130	Celtics	+$34	04-13 00:43
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	25	$5.0K	4,000	4,000	+0	No	-$1,351	05-26 14:44
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 240 259	14	$5.0K	5,349	0	+5,349	No	+$363	04-21 14:48
nba nop min 2026 04 12	6	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	Timberwolves	+$35	04-13 02:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 00:51:16	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	No	BUY	465	97¢	$453	0x22c238…
07-02 00:50:38	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	No	BUY	35	97¢	$34	0x2d8cca…
07-02 00:50:02	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	No	BUY	500	95¢	$475	0xa8e59b…
07-01 15:52:17	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	97	97¢	$94	0x11edee…
07-01 15:50:53	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0xebeadf…
07-01 15:48:49	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x5cb1c9…
07-01 15:37:38	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	97	90¢	$88	0xe10e68…
07-01 15:31:04	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	85¢	$51	0x202e26…
07-01 15:30:25	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	140	84¢	$117	0x8e893b…
07-01 15:27:16	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?	No	BUY	500	93¢	$465	0xe17b0b…
07-01 15:25:49	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?	No	SELL	500	18¢	$90	0xaebf80…
07-01 04:49:01	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?	No	BUY	175	78¢	$136	0xb7045c…
07-01 02:39:52	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0x1d317e…
07-01 02:14:05	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?	No	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0xaad2de…
07-01 02:13:43	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?	No	BUY	65	84¢	$55	0x376b0f…
06-30 16:19:11	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	No	BUY	500	96¢	$479	0x0a57bd…
06-30 14:41:04	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,579	100¢	$1,574	0x680dec…
06-30 11:55:02	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	28	47¢	$13	0xc88455…
06-30 11:34:29	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	156	47¢	$73	0x97fb8d…
06-30 11:07:44	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	48¢	$48	0x72b57f…
06-30 03:38:28	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	No	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0xc27add…
06-30 03:06:50	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	56¢	$56	0xf23e16…
06-30 03:00:20	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	116	58¢	$68	0x576dc9…
06-30 02:59:10	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	No	BUY	319	96¢	$305	0xe02775…
06-30 02:52:56	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	472	94¢	$443	0x15485c…
06-30 02:52:25	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	600	94¢	$564	0x1c2510…
06-30 02:51:11	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7	93¢	$7	0xda3404…
06-29 03:12:17	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	13¢	$2	0x510c2e…
06-29 02:55:43	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	251	13¢	$33	0x596a03…
06-29 02:54:14	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0xb86b68…
06-29 02:53:44	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0x5cdfcf…
06-29 02:52:22	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	74	14¢	$10	0x9aa0fc…
06-29 02:51:20	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	14¢	$8	0x62a378…
06-29 02:50:49	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	309	14¢	$43	0x632810…
06-29 02:42:11	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	86	17¢	$15	0x0571e9…
06-28 16:20:40	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	238	94¢	$223	0x1b2186…
06-28 16:20:17	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	138	94¢	$130	0x08287a…
06-28 16:19:40	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	500	94¢	$470	0x1002db…
06-28 08:10:35	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	15¢	$18	0x80deab…
06-28 05:39:13	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	882	15¢	$131	0x6f0212…
06-28 02:03:23	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	52	84¢	$43	0x2797e8…
06-28 02:02:49	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	498	84¢	$420	0x036910…
06-28 00:08:43	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	97¢	$486	0x93215a…
06-27 11:45:20	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0xca271e…
06-27 11:45:02	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	337	96¢	$325	0xb9d02d…
06-27 07:18:02	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0x974f7b…
06-27 00:26:29	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1,110	97¢	$1,076	0x1f65b0…
06-27 00:23:59	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x145ebd…
06-27 00:23:46	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x8ca3e5…
06-27 00:22:31	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x0d3874…
06-27 00:06:47	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	No	BUY	258	95¢	$245	0x7c5cb3…
06-27 00:03:50	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	No	BUY	250	95¢	$238	0x14ab50…
06-27 00:03:43	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	No	BUY	130	95¢	$123	0x7b0310…
06-27 00:03:14	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x8de127…
06-27 00:02:53	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	No	BUY	165	95¢	$156	0x9ff2a6…
06-26 22:28:17	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	No	BUY	200	87¢	$175	0xb9a013…
06-26 22:27:37	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	No	BUY	187	87¢	$163	0x17e05a…
06-26 22:26:28	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	No	BUY	119	87¢	$104	0xd38c61…
06-26 14:38:25	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	No	BUY	68	96¢	$65	0xb674ea…
06-26 14:15:06	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	No	BUY	90	96¢	$86	0x84e796…
06-26 12:27:19	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	No	BUY	45	96¢	$43	0x94de00…
06-26 12:26:38	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	BUY	500	90¢	$450	0x65a0d6…
06-25 22:13:38	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x518d83…
06-25 12:25:07	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	SELL	50	76¢	$38	0x73b15a…
06-25 12:23:10	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	SELL	50	76¢	$38	0x0d6b24…
06-25 12:22:50	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0x884746…
06-25 12:21:04	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x5abfae…
06-25 12:16:43	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	SELL	80	76¢	$60	0x81ca9b…
06-25 12:16:28	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	SELL	30	76¢	$23	0x8d6d60…
06-25 12:15:49	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	SELL	80	76¢	$60	0x4d8537…
06-25 12:15:22	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	SELL	30	76¢	$23	0x0d0d24…
06-25 12:14:26	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	SELL	100	76¢	$76	0xe4a695…
06-25 12:13:32	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	SELL	50	76¢	$38	0x777f59…
06-25 12:11:08	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0xcda5c8…
06-25 08:29:56	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	BUY	312	91¢	$284	0x054395…
06-25 08:26:50	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x02aac7…
06-25 08:25:02	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x22791d…
06-25 08:24:52	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	BUY	188	91¢	$171	0x6b9f51…
06-25 07:12:05	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	BUY	43	77¢	$33	0x70e283…
06-25 07:11:32	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xc77dc4…
06-25 07:09:32	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xd85adc…
06-25 07:08:47	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0xdbba4e…
06-25 07:07:55	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x84b377…
06-25 07:07:14	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x0ebfd2…
06-25 07:06:17	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x8c0aeb…
06-25 07:06:14	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	BUY	310	77¢	$239	0xd4cb68…
06-25 06:32:04	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	228	96¢	$218	0x37e2f4…
06-25 06:11:44	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	148	96¢	$142	0x1b8566…
06-25 04:14:23	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	No	BUY	161	96¢	$154	0x56d8b2…
06-25 03:01:07	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	No	BUY	65	96¢	$62	0xe74f1d…
06-24 22:34:53	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	BUY	500	97¢	$486	0xdfc7d3…
06-24 14:16:55	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	81	94¢	$76	0xa038a8…
06-24 14:16:22	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	219	94¢	$206	0xff902f…
06-24 14:11:08	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0xcadc8f…
06-23 22:25:32	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	No	BUY	300	95¢	$285	0xed55d2…
06-23 22:08:38	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	No	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0xe64b90…
06-23 22:08:32	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	No	BUY	191	94¢	$180	0x022be4…
06-23 22:08:23	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xf9275d…
06-23 19:19:43	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	No	BUY	118	98¢	$115	0xb0f44a…
06-23 19:16:01	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	No	BUY	82	98¢	$80	0x7c1058…