Partial-Ignorant — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

48.7%

Resolved

Trades

103

lifetime

Volume

$2.29K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

$10

1 position

First seen

2026-02-14

last 07-16 11:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

48% — —

Other

31% 0% $-0

Politics

7% — —

Tech

7% — —

Sports

7% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No		+10	$10	96¢	$10	$-0	07-16 11:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	2	$134	71	71	+0	open	—	04-14 00:04
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	2	$133	70	70	+0	open	—	04-14 00:04
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	2	$133	68	68	+0	open	—	04-14 07:04
btc updown 5m 1776124800	2	$128	93	91	+2	open	—	04-14 00:02
btc updown 5m 1776124500	2	$111	86	83	+3	open	—	04-13 23:57
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$75	41	41	+0	open	—	03-20 23:28
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$74	40	40	+0	open	—	03-23 01:20
will silver si hit high 150 by end of march	2	$74	37	37	+0	open	—	03-27 02:13
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$74	38	38	+0	Yes	$-0	04-02 07:50
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	2	$72	37	37	+0	open	—	03-24 07:31
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April?	2	$71	36	36	+0	open	—	04-08 15:07
Will Solana reach $160 in April?	2	$71	36	36	+0	open	—	04-10 12:28
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$70	171	171	+0	No	+$2	03-13 10:46
will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	2	$68	34	34	+0	open	—	03-06 12:17
will bitcoin reach 110k in march 2026	2	$68	34	34	+0	open	—	03-09 07:53
will bitcoin reach 105k in march 2026	2	$68	34	34	+0	open	—	03-11 14:55
btc updown 5m 1776150300	1	$66	105	0	+105	open	—	04-14 07:05
btc updown 5m 1775202900	4	$52	85	80	+4	open	—	04-03 07:57
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	2	$50	27	27	+0	open	—	07-16 11:44
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	3	$48	26	26	+0	open	—	04-26 14:29
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	4	$48	24	24	+0	open	—	05-17 00:13
btc updown 5m 1775116200	2	$47	111	105	+5	open	—	04-02 07:51
btc updown 5m 1776123900	2	$42	56	54	+1	open	—	04-13 23:49
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	3	$36	24	14	+10	open	—	07-16 11:45
btc updown 5m 1776066900	1	$35	95	0	+95	open	—	04-13 07:55
btc updown 5m 1773753600	1	$34	37	0	+37	open	—	03-17 13:24
bitcoin above 62k on march 1	1	$34	34	0	+34	open	—	03-01 08:50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	2	$30	15	15	+0	open	—	05-17 03:45
btc updown 5m 1773753300	1	$30	35	0	+35	open	—	03-17 13:19
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	2	$26	13	13	+0	open	—	04-21 12:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-16 11:45:13	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xe45feb…
07-16 11:45:01	will the next claude opus model be released by july 16 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xabd418…
07-16 11:44:37	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	27	94¢	$25	0xfa56c0…
07-10 12:57:46	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x0252e4…
07-10 12:57:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	14	96¢	$13	0x45d306…
07-10 01:13:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0xce0897…
06-26 04:28:19	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x22be8e…
06-26 04:28:14	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x296326…
06-22 12:53:20	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x05b0f9…
06-22 12:53:04	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$4	0xba421c…
06-12 10:54:45	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x07fc45…
06-06 06:16:55	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x835012…
05-25 08:16:04	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0xb72e3d…
05-19 10:15:33	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xf50ba3…
05-18 07:48:48	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x3c2184…
05-18 07:47:59	Will Trump announce new sanctions on China?	No	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0x6467f7…
05-17 04:40:34	Will Trump announce new sanctions on China?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xe46660…
05-17 03:45:46	Will Solana reach $140 in May?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$4	0x971851…
05-17 03:45:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x4b8610…
05-17 00:15:16	Will Solana reach $140 in May?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$4	0x2907a1…
05-17 00:13:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x3eadf0…
05-17 00:13:41	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x822554…
05-14 02:28:16	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$9	0x778fbe…
05-09 12:04:45	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xf8b387…
05-06 02:08:54	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x18065c…
05-02 14:38:42	Magic vs. Pistons	Magic	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0x4cb6ad…
04-26 14:29:16	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x0e713a…
04-26 14:29:10	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	16	91¢	$15	0x95a1a5…
04-26 14:28:46	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	26	92¢	$24	0x08fecc…
04-26 14:28:00	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x8e0e4b…
04-26 14:27:54	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	15	97¢	$14	0x44cef0…
04-23 10:25:34	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	15	97¢	$14	0x2074d1…
04-23 10:24:28	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x5f0aa7…
04-23 10:23:38	btc updown 5m 1776939600	Up	SELL	3	32¢	$1	0xf77846…
04-23 10:21:20	btc updown 5m 1776939600	Up	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xd83229…
04-23 10:18:00	btc updown 5m 1776939300	Up	SELL	3	89¢	$3	0x3d5af7…
04-23 10:15:24	btc updown 5m 1776939300	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xbcbbcd…
04-21 12:14:34	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	SELL	13	96¢	$13	0x655c45…
04-20 03:53:56	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x07134d…
04-14 07:05:31	btc updown 5m 1776150300	Down	BUY	105	63¢	$66	0xa1f82f…
04-14 07:04:21	Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	68	97¢	$66	0x7857f3…
04-14 00:04:53	Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	68	98¢	$66	0x2b078c…
04-14 00:04:37	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	70	95¢	$67	0x17a5a3…
04-14 00:04:31	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	70	95¢	$67	0x6b3c45…
04-14 00:04:17	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	71	94¢	$67	0xe56e2e…
04-14 00:04:09	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	71	94¢	$67	0x5b4d5f…
04-14 00:02:39	btc updown 5m 1776124800	Up	SELL	91	75¢	$68	0x40936f…
04-14 00:01:33	btc updown 5m 1776124800	Up	BUY	93	64¢	$60	0x419aeb…
04-13 23:57:23	btc updown 5m 1776124500	Down	SELL	83	73¢	$61	0x9842bd…
04-13 23:55:59	btc updown 5m 1776124500	Down	BUY	86	58¢	$50	0x19a569…
04-13 23:54:41	btc updown 5m 1776124200	Up	SELL	17	97¢	$16	0xba8438…
04-13 23:52:07	btc updown 5m 1776124200	Up	BUY	17	35¢	$6	0xe4055d…
04-13 23:49:27	btc updown 5m 1776123900	Up	SELL	54	12¢	$7	0x3732b4…
04-13 23:45:21	btc updown 5m 1776123900	Up	BUY	56	63¢	$35	0xcd5054…
04-13 07:55:59	btc updown 5m 1776066900	Down	BUY	95	37¢	$35	0x12012b…
04-13 07:54:23	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x2bc2d5…
04-10 12:29:17	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x8ff288…
04-10 12:28:49	Will Solana reach $160 in April?	No	SELL	36	100¢	$35	0x7184b0…
04-08 15:08:03	Will Solana reach $160 in April?	No	BUY	36	99¢	$35	0x0f4dde…
04-08 15:07:39	Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April?	No	SELL	36	97¢	$35	0x0ce988…
04-07 11:48:05	Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April?	No	BUY	36	98¢	$36	0xf31849…
04-07 11:47:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	12	97¢	$12	0xc36947…
04-06 01:25:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0x40594a…
04-03 08:01:11	btc updown 5m 1775203200	Down	BUY	51	48¢	$24	0x5846b6…
04-03 07:57:07	btc updown 5m 1775202900	Up	SELL	71	36¢	$26	0xfc88ee…
04-03 07:56:37	btc updown 5m 1775202900	Up	BUY	75	26¢	$20	0xa3d96c…
04-03 07:56:17	btc updown 5m 1775202900	Up	SELL	9	24¢	$2	0x9c3c71…
04-03 07:55:27	btc updown 5m 1775202900	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xc8d7d2…
04-03 07:46:19	btc updown 5m 1775202300	Up	BUY	27	36¢	$10	0x166bca…
04-02 07:51:15	btc updown 5m 1775116200	Up	SELL	105	10¢	$11	0x6cce2e…
04-02 07:50:31	btc updown 5m 1775116200	Up	BUY	111	33¢	$37	0x6c1a63…
04-02 07:50:11	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	38	96¢	$37	0xfcde71…
04-02 03:11:13	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	38	96¢	$37	0x672b3f…
03-27 02:13:47	will silver si hit high 150 by end of march	No	SELL	37	100¢	$37	0xe145ba…
03-24 07:34:29	will silver si hit high 150 by end of march	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0x6a4833…
03-24 07:33:19	btc updown 5m 1774337400	Down	SELL	9	65¢	$6	0x24d409…
03-24 07:33:11	btc updown 5m 1774337400	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xd5da15…
03-24 07:32:33	btc updown 5m 1774337400	Down	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0xa107fb…
03-24 07:32:13	btc updown 5m 1774337400	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x76cc0d…
03-24 07:31:23	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	SELL	37	96¢	$36	0x86d773…
03-23 01:21:31	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	37	97¢	$36	0x45f631…
03-23 01:20:41	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	40	91¢	$36	0x0a89e6…
03-20 23:28:59	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0xa09d20…
03-20 23:28:13	Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	41	92¢	$38	0x5237ed…
03-19 05:59:31	Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	41	93¢	$38	0xce7470…
03-17 13:31:41	btc updown 5m 1773754200	Up	SELL	10	65¢	$6	0xac66cd…
03-17 13:30:45	btc updown 5m 1773754200	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x290cf7…
03-17 13:24:35	btc updown 5m 1773753600	Down	BUY	37	94¢	$34	0x95c99f…
03-17 13:19:03	btc updown 5m 1773753300	Down	BUY	35	86¢	$30	0x331aff…
03-13 10:46:21	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	171	21¢	$36	0x093ff5…
03-11 14:55:57	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	171	20¢	$34	0x393dbb…
03-11 14:55:41	will bitcoin reach 105k in march 2026	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0x42bb5a…
03-09 07:54:07	will bitcoin reach 105k in march 2026	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xbabaa8…
03-09 07:53:51	will bitcoin reach 110k in march 2026	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0x2f6de8…
03-06 12:17:33	will bitcoin reach 110k in march 2026	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0xbb142c…
03-06 12:17:17	will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0x88095b…
03-02 11:20:47	will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x69493e…
03-01 08:50:41	bitcoin above 62k on march 1	Yes	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0x5196f0…
02-24 14:23:02	spx up or down on february 24 2026	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xb33098…
02-24 14:22:48	nba okc tor 2026 02 24	Thunder	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x409e96…