Rundown-Conspirator — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$146

Unrealized P&L

+$483

Hit rate

71.8%

Resolved

223

Trades

456

lifetime

Volume

$2.78K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$264

10 positions

First seen

2026-04-26

last 10-29 22:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 104 days

Categories

Other

77% 65% +$150

Tech

13% 74% +$12

Politics

9% 52% -$17

Sports

1% 61% $0

Crypto

0% 100% +$2

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

49 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	+100	$78	98¢	$98	+$20	10-28 19:39
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	+104	$24	60¢	$63	+$39	10-29 11:52
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+38	$21	95¢	$36	+$15	10-29 22:54
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+50	$25	66¢	$33	+$8	10-05 20:08
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	+50	$14	52¢	$26	+$12	10-05 20:08
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	+19	$5	14¢	$3	-$3	10-29 22:50
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+50	$2	4¢	$2	+$0	10-29 00:08
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+80	$72	2¢	$2	-$70	10-07 11:34
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	+19	$10	9¢	$2	-$8	10-29 22:54
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	+0	-$470	3¢	$0	+$470	09-29 19:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	29	$734	30,850	30,850	+0	open	—	09-29 19:52
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	25	$180	162,763	801	+161,962	open	—	10-26 21:05
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	3	$150	180	0	+180	open	—	10-28 19:39
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,400 in October?	1	$117	120	0	+120	open	—	10-28 14:03
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of October 26 2026?	3	$77	104	0	+104	open	—	10-29 11:52
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	1	$65	79	0	+79	No	+$14	10-07 11:34
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea by December 31, 2027?	3	$49	45	45	+0	open	—	10-27 11:26
israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 29	1	$47	50	0	+50	open	—	10-29 00:08
Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 30, 2026?	4	$31	34	0	+34	No	+$3	10-24 13:21
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	3	$30	79	0	+79	No	+$48	10-13 17:19
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	1	$29	30	0	+30	No	+$1	10-21 15:59
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?	3	$29	111	0	+111	No	-$29	10-21 17:17
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 22, 2026?	1	$28	30	0	+30	No	+$2	10-21 15:59
Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 29, 2026?	4	$27	34	0	+34	No	+$7	10-24 13:21
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026?	1	$25	40	0	+40	No	+$15	10-21 17:17
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	1	$25	50	0	+50	open	—	10-05 20:08
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	3	$25	55	0	+55	Yes	-$5	10-24 13:16
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	3	$24	104	0	+104	open	—	10-29 11:52
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	2	$21	38	0	+38	open	—	10-29 22:54
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?	3	$21	49	0	+49	Yes	+$28	10-24 13:21
Will Alexia Putellas finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?	2	$21	40	0	+40	Yes	+$19	10-05 01:21
Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 31, 2026?	3	$21	71	0	+71	No	-$1	10-24 13:16
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 28, 2026?	3	$20	28	0	+28	Yes	-$20	10-24 13:21
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	2	$20	119	0	+119	No	+$99	10-15 16:30
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	3	$19	77	0	+77	No	-$19	10-13 17:19
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 23, 2026?	1	$17	20	0	+20	No	+$3	10-23 09:58
Will "Animals" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	1	$15	20	0	+20	No	+$5	10-09 16:43
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	1	$14	50	0	+50	open	—	10-05 20:08
Will Muse from Meta be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	1	$14	20	0	+20	No	+$6	10-18 14:04
Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?	1	$13	30	0	+30	Yes	-$13	10-09 16:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 22:54:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	19	50¢	$10	0x5aa82f…
10-29 22:54:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	19	45¢	$9	0x16dd73…
10-29 22:50:04	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	19	66¢	$13	0x68a4ec…
10-29 22:50:04	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x42ca46…
10-29 11:52:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x5e2e84…
10-29 11:52:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xd0e6c3…
10-29 11:50:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0xa5f940…
10-29 11:50:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0x2fd338…
10-29 09:12:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	34	16¢	$5	0xd6facb…
10-29 09:12:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	34	80¢	$27	0x4df278…
10-29 00:08:29	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 29	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$47	0xdd3c94…
10-29 00:08:29	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x770706…
10-28 19:39:16	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	90	78¢	$70	0xd9f190…
10-28 19:39:16	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x17c645…
10-28 19:39:14	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xe788bb…
10-28 19:39:14	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	106	3¢	$4	0xb7e1f4…
10-28 19:39:14	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x9080b2…
10-28 19:39:14	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x0c128f…
10-28 14:03:28	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in October?	Yes	BUY	122	1¢	$1	0x9f96ab…
10-28 14:03:28	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,400 in October?	No	BUY	120	98¢	$117	0x8b8e38…
10-27 11:26:08	US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?	Yes	SELL	47	4¢	$2	0x07741a…
10-27 11:26:06	U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	19	47¢	$9	0xb5fe43…
10-27 10:52:32	U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	26	64¢	$17	0x158da6…
10-27 06:19:27	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + KD?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xbbe4eb…
10-27 06:19:27	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + KD?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x85df11…
10-27 06:19:27	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + KD?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x65ce97…
10-27 06:19:27	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + KD?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x4aeaa6…
10-26 23:59:56	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + KD?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xde8c75…
10-26 23:59:56	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + KD?	Yes	BUY	19	0¢	$0	0xa202bb…
10-26 23:59:56	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + KD?	Yes	BUY	19	0¢	$0	0x30e091…
10-26 23:55:33	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + KD?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x5f1a10…
10-26 23:55:33	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + KD?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x537780…
10-26 23:50:26	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + KD?	Yes	BUY	54	0¢	$0	0x327ed8…
10-26 23:48:59	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + KD?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xce24cd…
10-26 23:48:57	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + KD?	Yes	BUY	25	0¢	$0	0xceed33…
10-26 23:48:57	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + KD?	Yes	BUY	17	0¢	$0	0x564c84…
10-26 22:29:20	uptspt recognizes russian sovereignty over crimea by december 31 2027	No	BUY	45	52¢	$23	0xeb4f8c…
10-26 22:29:20	US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?	Yes	BUY	47	6¢	$3	0x12508b…
10-26 21:05:48	Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0x6ce2e6…
10-26 10:17:57	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x1b3ee1…
10-26 10:17:57	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x14650c…
10-26 10:17:57	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x090cf0…
10-26 10:15:45	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xe7033d…
10-26 10:15:44	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Yes	BUY	18	0¢	$0	0xbe63e0…
10-25 22:48:08	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Yes	BUY	27	0¢	$0	0xb1d5bd…
10-25 22:48:08	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xa6d1f4…
10-25 16:54:26	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xc3be10…
10-24 20:04:24	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Yes	BUY	22	0¢	$0	0x548c4e…
10-24 19:50:30	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0xafcc7f…
10-24 13:21:45	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	8	79¢	$6	0x348418…
10-24 13:21:45	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	8	73¢	$6	0x23416b…
10-24 13:21:44	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	44¢	$4	0x931eb8…
10-24 13:21:44	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0x400dcb…
10-24 13:16:27	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0xd53d85…
10-24 13:16:27	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcf988e…
10-24 13:16:27	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0xbeed09…
10-24 13:16:27	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xac3c7a…
10-24 13:16:27	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x296599…
10-24 13:14:23	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf360fe…
10-24 13:14:23	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x42b1bc…
10-24 13:14:23	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x21a6f8…
10-24 13:14:23	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x0bbcb2…
10-24 13:14:23	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x04947d…
10-23 20:57:15	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	44¢	$15	0xafb018…
10-23 20:57:15	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	2¢	$1	0x3dfebd…
10-23 20:57:15	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	35	45¢	$16	0x02bcfe…
10-23 09:58:21	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on or prior to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x919bae…
10-23 09:58:21	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x5f804b…
10-23 09:10:42	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0x98f655…
10-23 09:10:42	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	39¢	$2	0x927861…
10-23 09:10:42	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x8f81c0…
10-23 09:10:42	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x865bce…
10-23 09:10:42	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x85ba96…
10-23 09:10:42	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x065848…
10-22 14:21:00	Will "Gladiator II" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x992ddf…
10-22 14:21:00	Will "Gladiator II" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x6f0955…
10-21 21:43:45	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xc9e6ac…
10-21 21:43:44	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xfab004…
10-21 21:43:44	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xaf1b4f…
10-21 18:09:29	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0xfccaa1…
10-21 18:09:29	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x81bdb4…
10-21 18:09:29	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0x454462…
10-21 17:53:24	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x2d97b1…
10-21 17:17:05	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	8¢	$3	0xe6db93…
10-21 17:17:05	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0x986695…
10-21 17:17:05	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x67235b…
10-21 17:17:05	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x50cd6f…
10-21 17:17:05	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	4¢	$2	0x20f41d…
10-21 17:17:05	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	9¢	$4	0x00edfb…
10-21 17:17:00	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xe79339…
10-21 17:17:00	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xa6d8e9…
10-21 17:17:00	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0x668123…
10-21 17:17:00	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x65d96a…
10-21 17:17:00	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x0f6eac…
10-21 17:17:00	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x0c4b77…
10-21 15:59:45	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0xfec1b9…
10-21 15:59:45	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	5¢	$2	0x6fa7a9…
10-21 15:59:45	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 22, 2026?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0x39aa99…
10-20 06:17:05	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + SD?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xaa419e…
10-18 14:04:00	Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xe8546e…