Mad-Refuge — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.74K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.7%

Resolved

6,036

Trades

57,569

lifetime

Volume

$243.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 10-28 15:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 280 days

Categories

Other

100% 55% +$1,822

Politics

0% 54% -$85

Crypto

0% 25% +$2

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 168 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
highest temperature in nyc on february 11 2026 40 41f	65	$398	524	347	+176	Yes	+$133	02-11 17:17
highest temperature in london on february 15 2026 8c	49	$343	535	197	+339	No	-$200	02-15 17:43
highest temperature in london on february 10 2026 11c	50	$288	405	189	+216	No	-$65	02-10 12:26
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 9?	35	$287	265	265	+0	Yes	-$14	05-09 14:02
highest temperature in nyc on february 16 2026 38 39f	52	$282	366	202	+164	Yes	+$105	02-16 20:11
highest temperature in london on february 11 2026 12c	43	$282	392	305	+88	Yes	+$50	02-11 12:34
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	26	$277	380	380	+0	Yes	+$15	01-31 00:07
highest temperature in moscow on april 16 2026 12c	24	$262	222	218	+5	No	+$4	04-16 13:36
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C or below on May 6?	23	$256	203	203	+0	Yes	+$23	05-06 22:19
highest temperature in los angeles on march 29 2026 74 75f	10	$252	251	125	+126	No	-$3	03-30 07:27
highest temperature in nyc on february 14 2026 44 45f	32	$244	462	52	+410	Yes	+$229	02-14 20:55
highest temperature in wellington on march 21 2026 18c	23	$242	237	114	+124	No	-$14	03-21 11:12
highest temperature in denver on march 26 2026 80 81f	11	$241	228	114	+114	No	-$16	03-27 09:28
highest temperature in nyc on february 13 2026 36 37f	29	$236	360	245	+115	No	-$62	02-13 20:43
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10?	39	$233	439	439	+0	Yes	-$85	06-10 15:12
highest temperature in london on february 13 2026 8c	33	$229	392	105	+287	Yes	+$75	02-13 12:26
highest temperature in wuhan on march 26 2026 20c	13	$228	236	112	+123	No	-$4	03-26 13:49
highest temperature in seoul on april 5 2026 13c	9	$226	223	108	+115	No	-$9	04-05 18:44
highest temperature in seattle on february 14 2026 46 47f	32	$226	305	106	+199	No	-$84	02-14 22:44
highest temperature in dallas on april 13 2026 82forhigher	18	$225	116	150	-34	Yes	+$15	04-13 16:56
highest temperature in london on january 20 11c	18	$224	220	220	+0	No	+$84	01-20 13:53
highest temperature in helsinki on april 7 2026 9corhigher	22	$220	177	105	+73	No	-$10	04-07 19:19
highest temperature in nyc on february 11 2026 42 43f	36	$218	269	244	+24	No	+$23	02-11 15:17
highest temperature in helsinki on april 13 2026 12corhigher	36	$218	117	155	-38	Yes	+$10	04-13 09:51
highest temperature in london on february 13 2026 9corhigher	22	$217	412	80	+332	No	+$163	02-13 12:30
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 31?	34	$213	210	210	+0	No	+$35	05-31 13:20
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or higher on May 9?	45	$211	210	210	+0	No	+$9	05-09 20:17
highest temperature in london on april 14 2026 17c	45	$204	240	161	+79	Yes	+$108	04-14 14:39
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 9?	21	$203	180	180	+0	No	+$15	05-09 15:04
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C or higher on May 12?	35	$201	197	197	+0	Yes	+$42	05-12 07:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 16:32:38	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 28?	No	SELL	0	38¢	$0	0x51cdd1…
10-28 16:20:50	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 28?	No	SELL	8	38¢	$3	0x29d53c…
10-28 16:02:13	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xe52010…
10-28 15:48:10	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 28?	No	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0x85f836…
10-28 15:48:10	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 28?	No	SELL	39	38¢	$15	0x4bf63b…
10-28 15:42:56	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x1e7dd6…
10-28 15:38:11	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	0	38¢	$0	0x3250de…
10-28 15:30:35	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xa18c11…
10-28 15:29:53	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 28?	No	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0x21c260…
10-28 15:24:31	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x2f8d4e…
10-28 15:22:32	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 28?	No	SELL	6	40¢	$2	0x5c873b…
10-28 15:22:32	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 28?	No	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x5a3b00…
10-28 15:12:10	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on October 28?	Yes	SELL	6	45¢	$3	0xbcdf8c…
10-28 15:12:10	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on October 28?	Yes	SELL	6	45¢	$3	0x32705f…
10-28 15:12:07	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on October 28?	Yes	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0xa8f494…
10-28 15:12:07	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on October 28?	Yes	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0x85798f…
10-28 15:12:07	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on October 28?	Yes	SELL	17	42¢	$7	0x4a8b0c…
10-28 15:12:07	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on October 28?	Yes	SELL	11	40¢	$4	0x2fcbdc…
10-28 15:09:31	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on October 28?	Yes	SELL	0	40¢	$0	0xbeba3f…
10-28 14:53:08	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 28?	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x8544e0…
10-28 14:47:10	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 28?	No	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x63f6bd…
10-28 14:31:46	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x56edf2…
10-28 14:17:01	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 28?	No	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x570bc9…
10-28 14:16:46	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 28?	No	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xea1fc6…
10-28 14:16:19	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 28?	No	BUY	35	31¢	$11	0xf6ec3b…
10-28 14:11:29	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 28?	No	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0xc31bf8…
10-28 14:11:17	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 28?	No	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x406645…
10-28 14:11:05	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 28?	No	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0xc0f46f…
10-28 14:09:40	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0xc97992…
10-28 14:09:28	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	35	30¢	$10	0xc72e3e…
10-28 14:03:43	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0x39c851…
10-28 14:00:08	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on October 28?	No	SELL	18	56¢	$10	0x311b21…
10-28 11:11:28	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0xc1178c…
10-28 11:07:50	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	4	10¢	$0	0x28bc11…
10-28 10:32:16	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	53	16¢	$9	0x2e6079…
10-28 10:28:19	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	13	52¢	$7	0xf02060…
10-28 10:14:04	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	35	20¢	$7	0x02477e…
10-28 10:11:58	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xcebab1…
10-28 10:11:49	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x3e4838…
10-28 10:11:47	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x1a0fc5…
10-28 10:11:47	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0x16ae7f…
10-28 10:11:47	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x105eb6…
10-28 10:10:10	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on October 28?	No	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x98b1d4…
10-28 09:12:41	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on October 28?	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xa8071e…
10-28 09:12:11	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on October 28?	No	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xba671e…
10-28 08:51:23	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xb82f3c…
10-28 08:51:02	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x568687…
10-28 08:20:05	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0xcb6aca…
10-28 08:10:49	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x9b8b11…
10-28 08:09:31	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	15	11¢	$2	0xcce2ce…
10-28 08:09:16	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xde62e7…
10-28 07:58:02	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	28	9¢	$2	0x03ab0b…
10-28 07:54:49	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x1f0aff…
10-28 07:04:31	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x6c2651…
10-28 06:59:07	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	30	40¢	$12	0xcb937c…
10-28 06:50:11	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xe9b952…
10-28 06:49:46	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	28	40¢	$11	0x203230…
10-28 06:46:47	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	30	43¢	$13	0xd1d01d…
10-28 05:14:40	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x93cc7d…
10-28 05:13:41	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xf6aadc…
10-28 05:13:28	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x22663f…
10-28 01:05:20	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 28?	No	SELL	34	6¢	$2	0x79d04d…
10-27 22:34:27	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 28?	No	SELL	1	55¢	$0	0xffe76f…
10-27 19:40:44	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x25b617…
10-27 19:34:27	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 28?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x9113f7…
10-27 19:34:11	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xe6798d…
10-27 19:25:39	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x6e5459…
10-27 19:17:12	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 28?	No	BUY	30	45¢	$14	0xf584e8…
10-27 18:18:24	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on October 27?	Yes	SELL	65	8¢	$5	0xc13467…
10-27 18:07:20	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 27?	Yes	SELL	96	6¢	$6	0x9455c1…
10-27 17:56:38	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on October 27?	No	SELL	52	31¢	$16	0x1c2723…
10-27 17:53:33	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x9ce16f…
10-27 17:14:20	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on October 27?	No	SELL	3	44¢	$1	0x10852a…
10-27 16:26:35	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on October 27?	No	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xdf81a0…
10-27 16:10:18	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on October 27?	No	BUY	4	32¢	$1	0xa62f63…
10-27 15:43:36	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xaca5da…
10-27 15:39:21	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xee363d…
10-27 15:25:17	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x207ae3…
10-27 15:25:05	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x0de579…
10-27 15:25:00	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	0	32¢	$0	0xf161d6…
10-27 15:25:00	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	8	32¢	$3	0xa400da…
10-27 15:25:00	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x9c9942…
10-27 15:24:54	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	11	32¢	$4	0x4e66aa…
10-27 15:24:51	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0xbfa655…
10-27 15:23:39	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0xd64fd9…
10-27 15:15:23	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on October 27?	No	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x63cb9a…
10-27 15:15:02	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x2d4bc6…
10-27 15:15:00	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xb9b45f…
10-27 15:14:08	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on October 27?	No	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0x455554…
10-27 15:07:59	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	2	18¢	$0	0x2d7433…
10-27 15:05:05	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	2	18¢	$0	0x07dac3…
10-27 15:01:54	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on October 27?	No	SELL	6	42¢	$3	0x20824f…
10-27 15:01:47	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on October 27?	No	SELL	3	42¢	$1	0xa49cad…
10-27 15:01:47	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on October 27?	No	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0x47948c…
10-27 15:01:33	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on October 27?	No	SELL	16	42¢	$7	0xf829c1…
10-27 14:58:03	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x3c1e42…
10-27 14:55:44	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x61092e…
10-27 14:44:51	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on October 27?	No	BUY	35	34¢	$12	0x367332…
10-27 14:01:11	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on October 27?	No	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x95a00a…
10-27 13:31:47	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on October 27?	No	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0xe3eb35…