Sour-Repayment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$249

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

83.6%

Resolved

Trades

280

lifetime

Volume

$53.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$192

Open exposure

$108

1 position

First seen

2026-01-07

last 10-15 13:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 46 days

Categories

Other

40% 61% +$46

Crypto

30% 86% -$158

Politics

30% 74% -$137

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No		+110	$108	98¢	$108	$0	10-15 13:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	18	$7.5K	3,808	3,808	+0	No	+$2	02-06 10:52
will the government shutdown last 1 day or more 842	7	$5.1K	2,556	2,556	+0	Yes	+$2	01-31 13:32
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	21	$2.9K	1,497	1,497	+0	No	+$1	02-06 16:27
will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	13	$2.7K	1,383	1,383	+0	Yes	+$1	02-01 13:41
bitcoin above 90k on january 26	5	$2.5K	1,675	836	+839	No	+$4	01-26 16:19
us strikes iran by february 14 2026	15	$1.7K	869	869	+0	No	+$1	02-13 00:32
us strikes iran by february 1 2026	3	$1.7K	850	850	+0	No	+$0	02-01 09:03
bitcoin above 82k on january 28	3	$1.7K	843	843	+0	Yes	+$0	01-28 13:47
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	10	$1.7K	842	842	+0	Yes	-$1	01-26 08:39
bitcoin above 100k on january 14	2	$1.4K	710	710	+0	No	-$6	01-14 06:49
us strikes iran by february 3 2026	7	$1.3K	638	638	+0	No	+$0	02-03 16:24
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	12	$1.3K	648	648	+0	No	+$1	02-11 19:06
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	3	$1.2K	191	1,033	-842	No	-$2	01-28 12:40
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	21	$974	770	770	+0	Yes	-$9	04-10 17:07
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	6	$928	500	500	+0	No	+$10	04-22 05:36
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	7	$859	443	443	+0	No	+$1	02-20 15:06
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	13	$859	439	439	+0	No	+$4	02-19 15:45
bitcoin above 94k on january 28	1	$841	842	0	+842	No	+$1	01-28 15:52
bitcoin above 86k on january 29	2	$840	846	0	+846	No	+$6	01-29 16:41
bitcoin above 86k on january 27	2	$821	822	0	+822	Yes	+$1	01-27 16:36
bitcoin above 96k on january 13	1	$701	704	0	+704	No	+$3	01-13 11:42
bitcoin above 94k on january 12	1	$700	701	0	+701	No	+$1	01-12 16:26
bitcoin above 102k on january 14	1	$697	698	0	+698	No	+$1	01-14 06:53
bitcoin above 98k on january 15	3	$695	698	0	+698	No	+$3	01-15 15:57
bitcoin above 88k on january 20	1	$615	617	0	+617	Yes	+$2	01-20 16:01
bitcoin above 92k on january 18	1	$606	606	0	+606	Yes	+$1	01-18 15:42
bitcoin above 98k on january 17	1	$604	606	0	+606	No	+$2	01-17 08:06
bitcoin above 98k on january 16	1	$599	602	0	+602	No	+$2	01-16 16:03
bitcoin above 96k on january 19	3	$598	606	0	+606	No	+$8	01-19 09:04
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	2	$551	340	230	+110	open	—	10-15 13:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-15 13:08:37	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	230	96¢	$221	0xd570a1…
10-07 21:08:29	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	340	97¢	$329	0xe655d6…
09-29 13:54:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 29?	No	BUY	280	98¢	$274	0x74a99b…
09-14 18:24:25	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	190	99¢	$189	0x4cc560…
08-27 10:27:15	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	124	98¢	$122	0xda3193…
08-27 10:20:55	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	66	98¢	$64	0x0fe4ec…
08-26 11:20:39	Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	190	100¢	$189	0x83b42b…
08-05 13:27:48	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x1d0e08…
08-05 11:59:17	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x3ed896…
08-05 11:32:08	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xaba5c7…
08-05 04:46:36	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	143	99¢	$141	0x1c0d82…
08-03 03:38:33	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	190	98¢	$187	0x553553…
07-08 13:03:22	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	190	97¢	$185	0x47ccc7…
07-04 13:50:55	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	190	95¢	$180	0xd3e3fc…
06-23 01:24:56	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x34092d…
06-23 01:11:52	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	137	94¢	$128	0xd11de9…
06-19 11:23:29	Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	BUY	70	61¢	$43	0x9bc36e…
06-19 10:58:20	Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x36097c…
06-14 18:01:10	Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	140	99¢	$138	0x8c9c75…
06-14 18:00:36	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	80	99¢	$79	0x6aefe3…
06-13 20:59:40	Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0x60b42d…
06-13 20:23:52	Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0x273b07…
06-13 20:05:19	Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0x18d62f…
06-13 20:05:18	Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	2	18¢	$0	0xc63739…
06-13 20:05:18	Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	2	18¢	$0	0x9df4ac…
06-13 20:05:18	Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	18	18¢	$3	0x7c7921…
06-13 20:05:18	Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	3	18¢	$1	0x3c21be…
06-13 20:05:18	Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	3	18¢	$0	0x252f6c…
06-13 20:05:16	Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0xc627f6…
06-13 20:05:16	Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x543c6a…
06-13 20:05:16	Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x0addf2…
06-13 20:04:49	Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	4	18¢	$1	0xba52bb…
06-13 20:03:45	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 btts	Yes	BUY	24	18¢	$4	0xfa25fe…
06-13 20:03:37	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 btts	Yes	BUY	12	18¢	$2	0xf77932…
06-13 20:03:16	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 btts	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0xbf7d00…
06-13 20:02:33	Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	27	18¢	$5	0x5439ca…
06-13 19:54:12	Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x3266d0…
06-13 19:30:19	Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0xf9e207…
06-13 19:30:19	Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x12e8a2…
06-13 19:30:18	Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0xe51470…
06-13 19:30:16	Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	4	6¢	$0	0xae466a…
06-13 19:29:21	Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x73a19a…
06-13 19:29:16	Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x7dad67…
06-13 19:29:10	Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	40	6¢	$2	0x3da7d9…
06-13 19:08:39	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	80	99¢	$79	0xcf791d…
06-01 14:52:15	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x59d0df…
06-01 14:52:15	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x595c9b…
06-01 14:52:15	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x318607…
06-01 14:52:15	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x25dc04…
06-01 14:52:15	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	41	99¢	$40	0x1ec74e…
06-01 14:51:05	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x268f9b…
05-31 16:27:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	160	99¢	$158	0xb84cbb…
05-31 16:26:54	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	160	99¢	$158	0x07cc82…
05-23 22:12:58	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	160	99¢	$158	0x53d767…
05-21 01:56:06	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	160	99¢	$159	0xfbeb55…
05-18 09:37:54	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	80	99¢	$79	0xaec423…
05-18 07:04:59	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	SELL	80	99¢	$79	0xa3147a…
05-11 09:20:21	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	80	98¢	$78	0xd4911d…
05-10 13:25:13	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	SELL	64	98¢	$63	0x5a3f81…
05-10 12:53:43	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0xffd329…
04-22 05:36:20	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	160	99¢	$159	0x5d2f69…
04-12 06:37:33	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	160	96¢	$154	0x6c192e…
04-10 17:07:25	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	SELL	58	63¢	$36	0xd79fed…
04-10 17:07:09	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	SELL	125	63¢	$79	0x15a2ae…
04-10 17:05:03	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0x9b7bca…
04-10 17:04:35	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	SELL	52	63¢	$33	0xbd8f86…
04-10 15:40:13	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	240	69¢	$166	0x3c50e3…
04-09 14:13:19	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	SELL	97	62¢	$60	0x5cc16b…
04-09 14:12:17	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	SELL	127	62¢	$79	0x2b9aaa…
04-09 14:12:07	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	SELL	46	62¢	$28	0x973c1e…
04-09 11:51:09	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	85	61¢	$52	0x2c2b6c…
04-09 11:50:23	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x0b7831…
04-09 11:48:49	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	14	61¢	$8	0x3e45fb…
04-09 11:48:27	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x0065ee…
04-09 11:42:39	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xaf0de1…
04-09 11:39:17	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x37dab9…
04-09 11:38:47	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	19	61¢	$12	0x09ae6d…
04-09 11:32:49	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	40	61¢	$24	0x84df2d…
04-09 11:32:47	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	12	61¢	$7	0x48d47e…
04-09 11:13:55	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	12	61¢	$7	0xd4e7dc…
04-09 11:12:23	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	53	61¢	$32	0xb243b3…
04-09 10:43:23	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	SELL	260	63¢	$164	0x734449…
04-09 08:37:33	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	260	62¢	$161	0x86f104…
04-08 08:55:53	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	160	98¢	$157	0xf65c35…
04-05 13:40:05	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	160	96¢	$154	0x549b97…
03-31 12:30:11	bitcoin above 64k on march 31	No	BUY	73	2¢	$1	0x354da7…
03-21 08:23:51	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	SELL	140	100¢	$139	0xc1948b…
03-18 07:40:11	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	140	99¢	$139	0x981fe4…
03-17 18:19:29	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	180	85¢	$153	0x7d0e2d…
03-15 14:44:43	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	180	84¢	$151	0x761b94…
03-15 11:38:55	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	160	96¢	$154	0x5ad2f5…
03-08 12:02:29	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	160	89¢	$143	0x875d2c…
02-27 11:05:55	US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	No	BUY	185	78¢	$144	0xbe7f5a…
02-20 15:06:52	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	No	SELL	223	98¢	$219	0x0ff36f…
02-20 14:51:56	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	No	BUY	223	98¢	$219	0x6ddadd…
02-19 15:45:58	us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	No	SELL	220	99¢	$218	0x4cfbbb…
02-18 06:19:24	us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	No	BUY	32	98¢	$32	0x953097…
02-18 06:18:38	us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x711224…
02-18 06:18:30	us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	No	BUY	58	98¢	$57	0xe9d66f…
02-18 06:18:02	us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	No	BUY	80	98¢	$78	0x0e59ab…