Mad-Pencil — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

49.9%

Resolved

Trades

301

lifetime

Volume

$2.61K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-09

last 07-16 02:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

92% 50% $-1

Politics

3% — —

Crypto

3% 0% $-0

Tech

2% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 115 139	10	$237	334	10	+324	open	—	04-13 10:00
elon musk of tweets march 30 april 1 40 64	3	$225	154	90	+64	open	—	04-01 05:58
will khamenei tweet again on march 10 2026 973	5	$125	247	0	+247	open	—	03-10 11:52
highest temperature in nyc on march 24 2026 48 49f	1	$65	65	0	+65	open	—	03-25 02:46
highest temperature in shanghai on april 9 2026 26c	3	$60	31	31	+0	open	—	04-09 05:23
highest temperature in shanghai on march 25 2026 19c	1	$55	55	0	+55	open	—	03-25 08:07
highest temperature in shanghai on april 9 2026 30corhigher	3	$52	27	26	+0	open	—	04-09 08:20
elon musk of tweets march 28 march 30 90 114	1	$50	51	0	+51	open	—	03-30 09:55
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 260 279	1	$50	51	0	+51	open	—	03-31 13:40
elon musk of tweets april 2 april 4 140 164	1	$50	50	0	+50	open	—	04-04 11:41
elon musk of tweets march 28 march 30 0 39	3	$49	50	0	+50	open	—	03-30 05:57
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	3	$48	48	0	+48	open	—	04-13 10:09
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 340 359	4	$48	50	0	+50	open	—	03-24 07:34
elon musk of tweets march 23 march 25 0 39	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	03-25 05:47
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	3	$38	74	74	+0	open	—	03-19 14:14
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 320 339	2	$35	35	0	+35	open	—	03-27 10:53
elon musk of tweets march 21 march 23 115 139	1	$32	32	0	+32	open	—	03-23 15:15
highest temperature in london on march 26 2026 5c	1	$30	30	0	+30	open	—	03-26 01:02
elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 90 114	1	$30	30	0	+30	open	—	04-13 01:20
elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 0 39	1	$30	30	0	+30	open	—	04-12 07:08
elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 0 39	9	$30	22	22	+0	open	—	04-15 07:41
highest temperature in shanghai on april 7 2026 13c	1	$29	29	0	+29	open	—	04-06 14:44
elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 40 64	2	$28	29	0	+29	open	—	04-08 05:27
elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 115 139	1	$28	28	0	+28	open	—	04-08 02:29
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 340 359	1	$28	28	0	+28	open	—	04-07 08:05
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 240 259	2	$25	25	0	+25	open	—	03-27 03:21
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 220 239	4	$25	59	34	+25	open	—	04-10 07:15
elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 165 189	2	$21	23	0	+23	open	—	04-13 02:20
will shadowrocket be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on april 14	3	$21	21	11	+10	open	—	04-14 09:05
elon musk of tweets march 23 march 25 90 114	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	03-25 05:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-16 02:10:49	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x04684a…
07-13 02:33:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf89eab…
06-01 06:55:17	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	1¢	$0	0x3ef1b1…
05-27 02:31:01	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x478f6a…
05-27 02:30:03	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x239de6…
05-21 09:37:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xd30270…
05-15 07:01:09	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	0	3¢	$0	0xd27839…
05-14 04:07:51	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	4	74¢	$3	0x06fbdc…
05-14 03:01:47	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x7fe505…
05-13 09:29:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xbb1c0a…
05-12 02:28:16	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xe0d0cd…
05-12 00:12:14	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x19f7e4…
05-11 14:03:35	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x84f3bc…
05-11 13:54:54	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x3184d1…
05-11 13:53:35	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x35dad6…
05-11 13:06:02	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xbd8700…
04-28 08:37:50	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xc4f3a1…
04-28 05:14:38	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xcf5885…
04-28 05:13:30	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x424216…
04-28 01:12:26	Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 28?	No	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x8d5e8c…
04-27 18:42:46	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	8¢	$1	0x3817b4…
04-27 10:02:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on April 27?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x9d95eb…
04-27 06:14:06	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0xa5ff58…
04-27 04:26:28	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on April 27?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xeb3c62…
04-27 04:18:48	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x99ccdd…
04-27 04:11:08	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x2414ce…
04-27 03:12:16	Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 28?	No	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x21c765…
04-27 03:04:22	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	8¢	$0	0xa514be…
04-27 03:04:06	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	91¢	$5	0x3b2c18…
04-27 03:03:08	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x662e6f…
04-27 02:43:54	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	2¢	$0	0xe92834…
04-23 15:08:52	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	20¢	$2	0x2263a3…
04-23 08:37:56	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 260 279	Yes	SELL	11	2¢	$0	0xfa804f…
04-22 07:44:42	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x371e60…
04-22 04:19:04	Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x099d8d…
04-22 04:17:56	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0x708cad…
04-22 02:50:18	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x89e303…
04-22 01:54:28	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	19¢	$1	0xe8afb7…
04-21 10:11:12	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0xa64427…
04-21 09:07:34	highest temperature in shanghai on april 21 2026 17c	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x31d390…
04-21 08:44:44	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0xf9baa3…
04-21 07:36:32	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0xd40b13…
04-21 07:35:56	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x9a656b…
04-21 06:26:56	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 200 219	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x114083…
04-21 06:25:06	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 0 39	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0xfaf90b…
04-21 05:51:52	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x0ede56…
04-21 05:12:22	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 0 39	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x41a400…
04-21 03:16:30	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 240 259	Yes	SELL	11	21¢	$2	0xb00638…
04-21 02:31:50	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 200 219	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xce45bd…
04-21 02:29:44	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	1	40¢	$0	0x9312ed…
04-21 02:24:16	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 200 219	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x162573…
04-20 10:32:02	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 180 199	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xdbbc87…
04-20 06:09:26	will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on april 21	No	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xbd6bdd…
04-20 04:53:32	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	7¢	$1	0x11ad9e…
04-18 13:01:50	elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 90 114	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x792828…
04-18 12:18:44	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x1e6051…
04-18 10:26:24	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x517d47…
04-18 10:26:14	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xf1bd42…
04-18 10:26:08	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0xb3fbc1…
04-18 06:37:56	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 280 299	Yes	SELL	12	18¢	$2	0xe338ec…
04-17 10:03:02	will turbotax file your tax return be 1 free app in the us apple app store on april 17	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x8ac4af…
04-17 09:58:26	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 240 259	Yes	SELL	18	11¢	$2	0x39fc0c…
04-17 08:49:24	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 360 379	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9be453…
04-17 08:46:24	will shadowrocket be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on april 17	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x6e2e81…
04-17 08:05:58	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 260 279	Yes	SELL	12	19¢	$2	0xe8a09c…
04-17 08:05:46	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 260 279	Yes	SELL	11	19¢	$2	0xf6e67f…
04-15 07:50:26	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 280 299	Yes	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x62cdb4…
04-15 07:50:18	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 260 279	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xb104c3…
04-15 07:49:44	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 240 259	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x6cac08…
04-15 07:49:14	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 220 239	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x5caefb…
04-15 07:43:26	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 220 239	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xadd4ca…
04-15 07:41:56	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 0 39	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xb755f0…
04-15 07:32:00	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 0 39	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xf9a64b…
04-15 07:31:52	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 0 39	Yes	SELL	4	16¢	$1	0xf4216d…
04-15 07:25:46	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 0 39	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x4f5675…
04-15 07:16:42	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 0 39	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x522743…
04-15 06:52:54	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 0 39	No	SELL	10	42¢	$4	0x56789a…
04-15 06:38:14	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 0 39	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x5639c3…
04-15 06:26:46	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 0 39	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x323663…
04-15 06:22:44	highest temperature in shanghai on april 15 2026 18c	No	SELL	4	30¢	$1	0x567b1a…
04-15 06:18:48	highest temperature in shanghai on april 15 2026 18c	No	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xc9fa6b…
04-15 05:36:46	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xab558c…
04-15 05:36:06	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 220 239	Yes	SELL	23	13¢	$3	0x84a499…
04-15 01:50:20	Claude 4.7 released by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x096445…
04-15 01:39:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xa6513e…
04-15 01:35:54	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x29da8f…
04-14 10:20:13	will hotschedules be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on april 14	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x70b658…
04-14 09:05:33	will shadowrocket be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on april 14	No	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x471020…
04-14 07:04:03	will hotschedules be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on april 14	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x10c7fc…
04-14 05:28:37	will shadowrocket be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on april 14	Yes	SELL	11	70¢	$7	0x09b90c…
04-14 05:28:23	will hotschedules be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on april 14	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xcca9a1…
04-14 04:29:29	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x119cca…
04-14 03:27:49	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x85dfd8…
04-14 01:29:15	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 280 299	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x220aee…
04-14 01:27:39	will shadowrocket be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on april 14	Yes	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x3da889…
04-13 10:09:33	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x15db62…
04-13 10:00:43	elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 115 139	No	BUY	44	72¢	$31	0xfbe9d0…
04-13 09:55:01	elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 115 139	No	BUY	6	72¢	$5	0x1faaef…
04-13 09:33:03	elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 115 139	No	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0xde2477…
04-13 09:32:39	elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 115 139	No	BUY	148	71¢	$106	0xb1d48e…