Mad-Pencil — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$474

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

79.3%

Resolved

447

Trades

859

lifetime

Volume

$7.20K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-09

last 09-01 03:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 119 days

Categories

Other

93% 81% -$446

Tech

5% 70% +$1

Politics

1% 64% -$3

Crypto

1% 33% -$27

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes		+5	$3	52¢	$3	$0	05-07 03:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 115 139	10	$237	334	10	+324	Yes	-$235	04-13 10:00
elon musk of tweets march 30 april 1 40 64	3	$225	154	90	+64	No	-$2	04-01 05:58
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 29?	19	$148	129	101	+28	Yes	-$49	06-29 09:39
will khamenei tweet again on march 10 2026 973	5	$125	247	0	+247	Yes	-$125	03-10 11:52
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	5	$74	50	50	+0	No	+$22	06-29 11:05
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 20?	4	$69	70	0	+70	No	+$1	05-20 06:59
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 9?	3	$69	35	35	+0	No	+$0	06-09 02:39
highest temperature in nyc on march 24 2026 48 49f	1	$65	65	0	+65	Yes	+$0	03-25 02:46
highest temperature in shanghai on april 9 2026 26c	3	$60	31	31	+0	No	+$1	04-09 05:23
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	9	$60	60	30	+30	No	+$2	06-02 06:57
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	1	$60	60	0	+60	No	+$0	06-29 11:38
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 29?	4	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	06-29 09:00
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 29?	7	$58	30	30	+0	No	+$1	06-29 07:58
highest temperature in shanghai on march 25 2026 19c	1	$55	55	0	+55	No	+$0	03-25 08:07
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	5	$53	55	0	+55	No	+$2	05-26 08:12
highest temperature in shanghai on april 9 2026 30corhigher	3	$52	27	26	+0	No	+$1	04-09 08:20
elon musk of tweets march 28 march 30 90 114	1	$50	51	0	+51	No	+$0	03-30 09:55
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 260 279	1	$50	51	0	+51	No	+$1	03-31 13:40
elon musk of tweets april 2 april 4 140 164	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	04-04 11:41
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 28?	1	$49	50	0	+50	No	+$1	06-27 15:26
elon musk of tweets march 28 march 30 0 39	3	$49	50	0	+50	No	+$1	03-30 05:57
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	2	$49	30	30	+0	No	-$4	06-25 13:08
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 28?	2	$48	50	0	+50	No	+$2	06-28 05:17
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 22?	5	$48	25	25	+0	No	+$2	05-22 06:34
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	3	$48	48	0	+48	Yes	+$0	04-13 10:09
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 340 359	4	$48	50	0	+50	No	+$3	03-24 07:34
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	2	$48	50	0	+50	No	+$2	06-25 06:52
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	1	$47	50	0	+50	No	+$3	05-18 07:40
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	4	$45	45	0	+45	No	+$0	06-02 07:05
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 27?	5	$44	60	0	+60	Yes	+$1	05-27 08:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-01 03:43:57	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x96fdc1…
08-31 05:08:28	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xf3c958…
08-21 15:07:09	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0x693b3f…
08-21 02:31:57	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xac0cc0…
08-21 02:29:04	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x15d6eb…
08-21 02:18:34	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0xb00e62…
08-20 02:15:42	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x5e792e…
08-18 08:21:33	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	No	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x94a624…
08-12 09:45:36	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x41ca75…
08-12 03:49:07	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x416a96…
08-11 09:31:10	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xe4ee20…
08-11 06:31:51	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x0cede8…
08-11 05:51:25	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x5e5cfc…
08-10 09:59:31	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xf5e9f9…
08-10 02:26:28	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xc9904d…
08-06 15:41:24	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x421a99…
08-06 05:34:29	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x579ccc…
08-03 08:34:11	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x92128d…
08-03 08:06:32	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x1ae115…
07-30 16:24:39	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd17511…
07-30 16:24:18	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xca0d23…
07-29 06:52:12	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x9e3a10…
07-28 13:29:41	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xc4f0c8…
07-28 06:36:06	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x09a162…
07-28 06:13:54	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	72¢	$1	0xebeac9…
07-28 04:22:21	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xcab461…
07-27 16:43:10	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x30a71f…
07-27 09:21:21	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x14c1c0…
07-27 02:41:33	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x2213d5…
07-23 06:03:00	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x8a0a49…
07-22 05:09:25	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xaa705e…
07-16 02:11:53	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x1dc00f…
07-16 02:10:49	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x04684a…
07-16 02:09:43	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	No	BUY	2	89¢	$1	0x69c83a…
07-15 07:29:19	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 15?	No	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x6640ab…
07-15 02:57:19	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 40°C on July 15?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa126df…
07-15 02:29:02	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 15?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xb26aaf…
07-14 06:32:34	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xdca2a0…
07-13 02:56:58	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xd67d4a…
07-13 02:33:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf89eab…
07-10 09:48:46	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 10?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x12aaf5…
07-10 02:39:47	Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 10?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0xb5fadf…
07-10 02:39:04	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 10?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xdb59d8…
07-10 02:37:58	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x5f57b0…
07-09 09:50:10	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 9?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xbe1cb0…
07-09 08:21:25	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x8a08b3…
07-09 07:15:41	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x479145…
07-09 07:15:17	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x42a66d…
07-09 07:14:47	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 9?	Yes	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0x3a4b8d…
07-09 07:14:38	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 9?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xa7c0ee…
07-09 07:14:11	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 9?	No	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0xa1791d…
07-09 02:40:05	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 9?	Yes	BUY	3	16¢	$0	0xdcd64a…
07-09 02:38:58	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 9?	Yes	SELL	2	27¢	$1	0x88c42c…
07-09 02:25:29	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xad0614…
07-09 02:23:02	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 9?	Yes	BUY	2	16¢	$0	0x532741…
07-09 02:15:59	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 9?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x9f7ebb…
07-08 07:05:13	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x919029…
07-08 07:04:53	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0x8f48d8…
07-08 06:52:04	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 8?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x7fa2b7…
07-08 06:15:31	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x42f6aa…
07-08 05:58:43	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0x218353…
07-08 05:58:14	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0xe4a705…
07-08 05:58:13	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0xad387d…
07-08 05:58:13	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0xa89d5d…
07-08 05:58:13	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0x6d29da…
07-08 05:58:13	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0x49ff96…
07-08 05:58:13	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0x34e013…
07-08 05:58:13	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0x041c26…
07-08 05:55:55	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	1	40¢	$0	0xc85e80…
07-08 05:55:53	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	4	40¢	$2	0xfcb6dd…
07-08 05:32:59	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x573140…
07-08 05:28:01	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xd93376…
07-08 04:34:04	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x78e99f…
07-08 04:31:08	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x110483…
07-08 04:25:55	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x3e3427…
07-08 04:21:44	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0x271c96…
07-08 04:16:37	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0xd548a5…
07-08 04:13:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x35e714…
07-08 04:13:44	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x2a6e6f…
07-08 04:02:04	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xb12433…
07-08 03:52:20	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	1	25¢	$0	0xd87625…
07-08 03:50:23	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	9	25¢	$2	0x455ed7…
07-08 03:44:26	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x4d7821…
07-08 02:50:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 8?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x75ab01…
07-08 02:13:19	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x18a81b…
07-07 07:42:02	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1c8de1…
07-07 06:09:25	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 7?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xaa76d7…
07-07 05:19:31	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 7?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x7165d7…
07-07 04:36:19	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 7?	Yes	SELL	3	46¢	$1	0x407248…
07-07 04:05:26	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 7?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xab9269…
07-07 03:53:01	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 7?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x453299…
07-07 03:08:02	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 7?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xbed322…
07-07 02:59:07	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 7?	Yes	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0x1b79f4…
07-07 02:58:49	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 7?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xab01cf…
07-07 02:38:14	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 7?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x87f03f…
07-07 02:19:19	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd36ff4…
07-07 02:17:02	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 7?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xa81891…
07-06 07:28:53	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C or higher on July 6?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x356194…
07-06 04:15:20	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x4d2806…
07-03 06:15:25	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 3?	No	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xc718b5…