Tense-Birdbath — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$174

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

97.3%

Resolved

2,577

Trades

2,633

lifetime

Volume

$42.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-14

last 08-17 01:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 170 days

Categories

Crypto

90% 97% -$147

Other

10% 97% -$25

Politics

0% 96% -$2

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
xrp up or down june 20 2026 4pm et	1	$50	51	+51	Up	+$1	06-20 20:55
solana up or down july 7 2026 12pm et	1	$50	51	+51	Up	+$1	07-07 16:56
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on May 28?	1	$50	51	+51	No	+$1	05-28 20:32
ethereum up or down on august 2 2026	1	$50	51	+51	Down	+$1	08-02 15:36
ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-31 20:00 UTC	1	$50	51	+51	Down	+$1	07-31 23:52
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-14 12:00 UTC	1	$50	51	+51	Up	+$1	08-14 15:52
ethereum up or down june 20 2026 11pm et	1	$50	51	+51	Up	+$1	06-21 03:56
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 11PM ET	1	$50	51	+51	Down	+$1	05-09 03:56
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 9AM ET	1	$50	51	+51	Down	+$1	05-09 13:55
xrp up or down july 8 2026 10am et	1	$50	51	+51	Down	+$1	07-08 14:55
xrp up or down on july 29 2026	1	$50	51	+51	Up	+$1	07-29 15:32
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 8?	1	$50	51	+51	Down	+$1	05-08 20:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3PM ET	1	$50	51	+51	Up	+$1	05-12 19:56
solana up or down july 3 2026 12am et	1	$50	51	+51	Down	+$1	07-03 04:56
xrp up or down june 20 2026 3am et	1	$50	51	+51	Down	+$1	06-20 07:56
bitcoin up or down july 23 2026 5am et	1	$50	51	+51	Up	+$1	07-23 09:57
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 4AM ET	1	$50	51	+51	Up	+$1	05-14 08:56
solana up or down july 22 2026 6am et	1	$50	51	+51	Up	+$1	07-22 10:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8AM ET	1	$50	51	+51	Up	+$1	05-12 12:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10PM ET	1	$50	51	+51	Up	-$50	05-27 02:58
xrp up or down july 23 2026 8pm et	1	$50	51	+51	Down	+$1	07-24 00:59
wti closes above 76 on august 4 2026	1	$50	51	+51	No	+$1	08-04 20:32
ethereum up or down on july 27 2026	1	$50	51	+51	Up	+$1	07-27 15:31
bitcoin up or down june 11 2026 5pm et	1	$50	52	+52	Up	+$2	06-11 21:56
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 5PM ET	1	$50	52	+52	Down	+$2	05-12 21:58
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 5AM ET	1	$50	52	+52	Up	+$2	05-12 09:57
xrp up or down july 9 2026 4pm et	1	$50	52	+52	Down	+$2	07-09 20:57
ethereum up or down on june 21 2026	1	$50	52	+52	Down	+$2	06-21 15:36
ethereum up or down july 15 2026 6pm et	1	$50	52	+52	Up	+$2	07-15 22:58
bitcoin up or down july 7 2026 12pm et	1	$50	52	+52	Up	+$2	07-07 16:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-17 01:29:01	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-17 01:15 UTC	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x5d806a…
08-17 00:59:04	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-17 00:45 UTC	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x440fd7…
08-17 00:43:37	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-17 00:30 UTC	Down	BUY	19	93¢	$18	0xb511ea…
08-16 19:50:28	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-16 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xe027fe…
08-16 15:42:25	bitcoin up or down on august 16 2026	Up	BUY	7	93¢	$7	0x2ab839…
08-16 15:32:36	Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on August 16?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x7b0165…
08-16 15:32:33	Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on August 16?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xf6f614…
08-16 15:32:30	xrp above 1 on august 16 2026	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x917f4c…
08-16 11:56:15	bitcoin up or down august 16 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0x56411d…
08-16 09:58:45	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-16 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xbda68d…
08-16 08:59:40	bitcoin up or down august 16 2026 4am et	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x1966f2…
08-16 08:09:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 08:05 UTC	Down	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x152745…
08-16 07:50:55	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-16 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0x75c0e1…
08-16 02:28:46	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-16 02:15 UTC	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x756a91…
08-15 14:56:34	solana up or down august 15 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x2c7e72…
08-15 06:58:13	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-15 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	19	92¢	$17	0xf1f9fd…
08-15 06:58:09	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-15 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x797368…
08-14 20:38:43	ng up or down on august 14 2026	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x2a75c9…
08-14 19:59:40	bitcoin up or down august 14 2026 3pm et	Up	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0xf62814…
08-14 19:59:37	bitcoin up or down august 14 2026 3pm et	Up	BUY	0	96¢	$0	0x7e9b07…
08-14 15:52:39	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-14 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xd4106e…
08-14 15:34:55	xrp above 1 on august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x20c09b…
08-14 10:55:34	bitcoin up or down august 14 2026 6am et	Up	BUY	52	95¢	$49	0x182b50…
08-14 08:43:15	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-14 08:30 UTC	Up	BUY	18	97¢	$17	0x012803…
08-14 03:09:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 03:05 UTC	Up	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0x53d907…
08-13 20:04:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	12	96¢	$12	0xc8cadc…
08-13 15:41:22	bitcoin up or down on august 13 2026	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x0a130d…
08-13 15:41:18	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on August 13?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x97ede3…
08-13 15:41:13	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on August 13?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x36fd93…
08-13 15:41:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on August 13?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x2c2071…
08-13 14:56:25	ethereum up or down august 13 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x6c33f3…
08-13 11:55:37	solana up or down august 13 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xa11b14…
08-13 09:13:28	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-13 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xd02d16…
08-13 07:56:15	solana up or down august 13 2026 3am et	Down	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xad6ffc…
08-13 01:59:39	solana up or down august 12 2026 9pm et	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x614a4e…
08-12 15:49:03	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on August 12?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x0e676f…
08-12 15:40:15	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on August 12?	Yes	BUY	32	92¢	$29	0xfcde22…
08-12 15:40:10	ethereum above 1900 on august 12 2026	No	BUY	32	91¢	$29	0x9a66ed…
08-12 14:28:46	Ethereum Up or Down - August 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x128fef…
08-12 14:28:43	Solana Up or Down - August 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x26b3b2…
08-12 10:13:46	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x787b1c…
08-12 00:13:46	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x70e990…
08-11 19:58:52	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x6ea066…
08-11 18:13:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 18:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x20e80d…
08-11 12:34:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 12:30 UTC	Up	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xb43e63…
08-11 09:44:22	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 09:30 UTC	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xcf6488…
08-11 08:14:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 08:10 UTC	Down	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x5605e7…
08-11 04:59:25	solana up or down august 11 2026 12am et	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x9394e7…
08-11 03:53:00	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-11 00:00 UTC	Up	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x26a0ed…
08-11 02:28:22	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 02:15 UTC	Down	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x6bfc9b…
08-11 00:49:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 00:45 UTC	Up	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xc1ef67…
08-11 00:13:48	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xad10ec…
08-11 00:13:45	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-11 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7ed3e1…
08-10 15:40:10	bitcoin above 64k on august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0x049902…
08-10 15:40:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 10?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x9f699d…
08-10 15:40:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on August 10?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xeb1398…
08-10 08:28:58	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-10 08:15 UTC	Up	BUY	18	97¢	$17	0x1cdd0b…
08-10 00:28:13	Solana Up or Down - August 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x18cedc…
08-10 00:28:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-10 00:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xcd9671…
08-09 18:39:07	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 18:35 UTC	Down	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xc47f62…
08-09 15:30:19	xrp up or down on august 9 2026	Down	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x9cfc7b…
08-09 15:30:15	bitcoin up or down on august 9 2026	Up	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x0b622c…
08-09 14:19:19	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 14:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$1	0xc4f210…
08-09 06:28:18	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-09 06:15 UTC	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xd54bac…
08-09 06:28:15	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-09 06:15 UTC	Up	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xabc1e9…
08-08 23:59:21	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 23:55 UTC	Down	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x0ecf81…
08-08 19:53:48	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xfdcbe2…
08-08 15:31:24	bitcoin up or down on august 8 2026	Up	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0xd1476d…
08-08 15:31:21	ethereum up or down on august 8 2026	Up	BUY	53	93¢	$49	0xa25ab7…
08-08 14:39:25	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 14:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe40258…
08-08 05:58:19	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-08 05:45 UTC	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x64243e…
08-07 20:49:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0xa49977…
08-07 11:43:24	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 11:30 UTC	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xf87cd9…
08-07 07:14:12	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 07:00 UTC	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xd6710d…
08-07 04:58:19	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-07 04:45 UTC	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xd5fa72…
08-06 21:14:00	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-06 21:00 UTC	Up	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0x56d800…
08-06 21:09:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 21:05 UTC	Up	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x2fd0c4…
08-06 21:09:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 21:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x429425…
08-06 20:53:29	wti closes above 78 on august 6 2026	Yes	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0x0f9e76…
08-06 20:44:33	xauusd up or down on august 6 2026	Down	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x84f990…
08-06 20:44:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-06 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0x060d35…
08-06 20:44:24	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-06 20:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x53b490…
08-06 10:13:38	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-06 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x18b981…
08-06 10:13:32	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-06 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xe6002d…
08-06 08:14:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 08:10 UTC	Down	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xe2f103…
08-05 15:32:03	bitcoin up or down on august 5 2026	Up	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xee3950…
08-05 10:19:30	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 10:15 UTC	Down	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x63b085…
08-05 09:55:11	bitcoin up or down august 5 2026 5am et	Up	BUY	52	95¢	$49	0x7eb9c0…
08-05 03:43:11	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-05 03:30 UTC	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x9fa2e1…
08-05 03:43:06	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-05 03:30 UTC	Up	BUY	18	97¢	$17	0xb1ccfa…
08-05 01:28:15	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-05 01:15 UTC	Up	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x83c6fc…
08-04 20:32:18	wti closes above 76 on august 4 2026	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x8d1bc8…
08-04 18:43:11	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-04 18:30 UTC	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xa92778…
08-04 18:43:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-04 18:30 UTC	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xaa0cc4…
08-04 18:09:38	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 18:05 UTC	Up	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x6ba7d7…
08-04 14:44:24	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 14:40 UTC	Up	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x2d9a0c…
08-04 12:43:14	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-04 12:30 UTC	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x71d30d…
08-04 05:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xdd6270…
08-04 04:29:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-04 04:15 UTC	Up	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0x0fb1e7…
08-03 23:19:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 23:15 UTC	Up	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x6b2626…