Graceful-Poppy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$138

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

95.1%

Resolved

332

Trades

362

lifetime

Volume

$7.67K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-02

last 10-14 13:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 149 days

Categories

Other

70% 93% -$143

Politics

24% 100% +$13

Crypto

6% 90% -$4

Tech

1% 100% +$1

Sports

0% 50% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes		+14	$10	55¢	$8	-$2	09-17 13:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 380 399	2	$350	176	176	+0	No	+$1	02-27 01:17
us strikes iran by february 14 2026	2	$305	154	154	+0	No	+$1	02-14 14:44
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	2	$301	152	152	+0	No	+$1	02-13 16:25
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 8	1	$180	184	0	+184	Yes	+$4	03-09 02:32
will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 22	3	$180	187	187	+0	Yes	-$179	03-23 06:45
bitcoin above 60k on march 3	1	$180	180	0	+180	Yes	+$1	03-03 09:37
will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 1	1	$176	180	0	+180	No	+$4	02-27 13:52
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	1	$175	176	0	+176	No	+$1	02-27 01:18
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 380 399	1	$174	174	0	+174	No	+$1	02-24 14:52
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	1	$173	174	0	+174	No	+$1	02-24 01:41
andrew tate of tweets march 3 march 10 2026 130 159	1	$164	164	0	+164	No	+$0	03-10 14:14
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 360 379	1	$163	164	0	+164	No	+$1	03-16 12:19
will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by february 22	1	$154	173	0	+173	No	+$19	02-15 08:13
elon musk of tweets february 12 february 14 65 89	1	$153	154	0	+154	No	+$1	02-14 14:44
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 360 379	1	$151	152	0	+152	Yes	+$1	02-13 16:25
us strikes iran by february 11 2026 664	1	$149	150	0	+150	No	+$1	02-11 14:11
us strikes iran by february 10 2026	1	$148	149	0	+149	No	+$2	02-10 07:57
will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 15	1	$100	101	0	+101	No	+$1	03-13 03:27
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 44°C or higher on July 20?	1	$100	101	0	+101	No	+$1	07-20 01:54
us strikes iran by february 8 2026	2	$93	47	47	+0	No	+$0	02-09 06:45
us strikes iran by february 7 2026	2	$93	47	47	+0	No	+$1	02-08 04:43
us strikes iran by february 4 2026	2	$91	46	46	+0	No	+$0	02-05 01:28
us strikes iran by february 2 2026	2	$90	45	45	+0	No	+$0	02-03 02:01
will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 15	1	$89	92	0	+92	No	+$4	03-13 03:27
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 25?	2	$80	40	40	+0	No	+$0	07-25 11:42
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	1	$80	81	0	+81	Yes	+$1	07-02 01:56
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 27?	1	$72	73	0	+73	No	+$1	07-27 01:47
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 16?	1	$63	64	0	+64	No	+$1	09-15 14:41
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C or below on September 12?	1	$63	63	0	+63	No	+$0	09-11 13:50
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 9?	1	$63	63	0	+63	Yes	+$0	09-09 14:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-14 13:46:09	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	99¢	$42	0x350506…
10-11 13:50:10	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x7c1007…
10-08 12:04:11	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 10?	No	BUY	9	92¢	$8	0x8478c6…
10-08 12:04:00	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C or below on October 10?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x2c050f…
10-08 12:03:50	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 9?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xcdf915…
10-06 14:21:30	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 7?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xf2f22a…
10-06 14:21:23	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on October 7?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x00dded…
10-05 07:06:20	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 6?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x78a938…
10-05 07:06:11	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on October 6?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x855929…
10-05 07:06:02	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on October 6?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x755228…
10-03 13:16:20	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 4?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xb7f260…
10-03 13:16:08	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on October 4?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x5b45b3…
10-02 09:25:41	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 2?	Up	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x0f6fc9…
10-01 13:18:35	bitcoin up or down on october 1 2026	Down	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x6bbf2d…
10-01 13:17:50	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 2?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xdd2f8b…
09-17 13:19:01	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x0fe554…
09-17 13:18:43	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x2d888d…
09-15 14:41:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 16?	No	BUY	64	99¢	$63	0x88b4be…
09-11 13:50:33	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C or below on September 12?	No	BUY	63	100¢	$63	0x5824ae…
09-09 14:46:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 9?	Yes	BUY	63	100¢	$63	0x5a9711…
09-05 15:08:30	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on September 6?	No	BUY	63	99¢	$62	0x6a8b29…
08-29 11:19:16	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 30?	No	BUY	62	99¢	$61	0xb8d8d8…
08-26 16:23:01	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on August 28?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x554bd3…
08-26 16:22:22	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 27?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xa478e7…
08-24 13:20:46	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 25?	No	BUY	61	99¢	$60	0x9d7d47…
08-16 09:27:45	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on August 18?	No	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xd4fb03…
08-15 03:14:28	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 16?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xbd79c3…
08-14 15:05:30	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 15?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xe245ed…
08-14 15:05:24	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 15?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd7dd09…
08-13 15:53:24	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 14?	No	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x62fc4b…
08-13 03:04:43	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 13?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x5d989d…
08-13 03:04:21	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 13?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x2ca267…
08-12 02:50:10	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 12?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x752c17…
08-12 02:50:03	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 12?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x26a60d…
08-10 15:57:01	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on August 11?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xc8a979…
08-10 15:56:52	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 11?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x6bcba2…
08-06 01:46:57	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 6?	No	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0x11e027…
08-05 07:43:53	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 6?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x000fd4…
08-05 07:43:41	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 6?	No	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0x5760a2…
08-04 05:46:41	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 5?	No	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0x0add0b…
08-04 05:38:02	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 4?	No	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0xfc0ab3…
08-01 06:15:23	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or higher on August 2?	No	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0xf6da0f…
08-01 06:15:08	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 1?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x51adb0…
07-31 02:02:08	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 31?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x9810c1…
07-31 02:02:00	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 31?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x1b76e4…
07-30 01:08:56	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on July 31?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x5c0cea…
07-30 01:08:30	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on July 30?	No	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x7a2570…
07-29 03:30:33	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 29?	No	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0x276dd6…
07-28 05:43:16	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 29?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0xa64ef5…
07-28 05:38:34	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x1ab4ed…
07-27 13:32:30	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 28?	No	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0xaaa116…
07-27 13:32:07	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on July 27?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x45c18c…
07-27 01:47:16	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 27?	No	BUY	73	99¢	$72	0x02937c…
07-26 07:12:19	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 26?	No	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0xca781f…
07-26 03:07:31	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on July 27?	No	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0x36c412…
07-25 14:42:28	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xeb3e18…
07-25 14:41:51	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?	No	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0xedcd53…
07-25 11:48:57	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x2db19c…
07-25 11:43:09	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 26?	No	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x61a2db…
07-25 11:43:03	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 26?	No	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0x526d50…
07-25 11:42:46	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 25?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0xe845ae…
07-25 03:37:21	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 26?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xdec7a4…
07-25 03:37:15	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or below on July 26?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x89ad9d…
07-24 13:34:13	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 25?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xcf56c7…
07-24 13:33:54	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 25?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x3c691f…
07-23 13:58:57	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 43°C on July 24?	No	BUY	45	99¢	$45	0x015ea2…
07-23 13:57:03	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 24?	No	SELL	7	76¢	$5	0x09280f…
07-23 05:54:12	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 24?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x44f046…
07-23 05:52:54	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 23?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x0449e7…
07-23 05:52:21	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 23?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x2d7ad0…
07-22 05:58:45	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 22?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xdebf73…
07-22 05:46:33	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 22?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xd275cd…
07-21 15:06:15	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 42°C on July 22?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xde2a7c…
07-21 15:06:09	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 43°C on July 22?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xe09e75…
07-21 03:25:31	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 42°C on July 21?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xc4cb41…
07-21 03:17:12	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 21?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x18a74a…
07-21 03:17:01	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 21?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xf39c0f…
07-20 01:54:09	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 44°C or higher on July 20?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xca8e83…
07-18 08:02:49	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 19?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x5a15ea…
07-18 08:02:40	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 19?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xdda1f4…
07-18 08:02:30	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 19?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x12c0b4…
07-17 08:51:51	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xb0f0dc…
07-17 08:45:52	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on July 17?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xca840c…
07-16 01:23:16	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 16?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x34e08c…
07-15 01:06:50	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 15?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0xd0085e…
07-15 01:06:43	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 15?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x237498…
07-14 07:53:32	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 14?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x1a533c…
07-14 07:52:59	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 15?	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x13f49b…
07-14 07:52:52	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 15?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x439cbb…
07-14 07:52:44	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 15?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x0a2c32…
07-14 07:50:31	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	16	21¢	$3	0x615bf9…
07-14 07:31:32	Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Spain?	Yes	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0xfc25b5…
07-14 07:30:08	Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x65eaea…
07-14 07:29:50	Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x2ca1f7…
07-13 06:15:07	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x49807c…
07-13 01:32:32	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 14?	No	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0x2038cb…
07-13 01:32:23	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or below on July 14?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xdd40e0…
07-13 01:31:55	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 13?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0xf1b52c…
07-10 01:33:20	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 10?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xb6b3bc…
07-10 01:11:56	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?	No	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0xba8daa…