Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$498

Unrealized P&L

+$26

Hit rate

56.3%

Resolved

1,259

Trades

5,791

lifetime

Volume

$35.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$168

7 positions

First seen

2026-07-06

last 10-29 00:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 106 days

Categories

Other

57% 56% -$132

Crypto

33% 56% -$435

Sports

8% 56% +$56

Politics

1% 100% +$32

Tech

1% 50% -$19

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

71 active days in 12wk • peak 512 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	+64	$16	99¢	$63	+$47	10-19 18:35
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+79	$74	63¢	$50	-$24	09-11 06:43
Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?	No	+26	$23	88¢	$23	$0	10-28 22:54
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	No	+25	$16	61¢	$15	-$1	10-27 19:35
Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?	No	+26	$9	33¢	$9	-$1	10-28 13:49
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	+15	$2	49¢	$7	+$5	10-28 15:36
next fable model 5pt2 released by october 31 2026	Yes	+1	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	10-15 21:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?	44	$385	276	245	+31	No	+$2	07-29 07:18
atp paul cobolli 2026 08 21	69	$384	750	0	+750	Flavio Cobolli	-$125	08-20 21:41
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-06 03:00 UTC	40	$321	351	274	+77	Down	-$25	07-06 03:13
atp navone djokovi 2026 08 30	17	$307	256	177	+79	Mariano Navone	+$6	08-31 02:28
Genoa: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Ferrari	41	$290	244	243	+1	cancelled	-$64	09-08 14:40
Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?	25	$287	237	237	+0	Yes	+$153	08-06 18:55
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-06 02:45 UTC	38	$277	315	261	+54	Up	-$17	07-06 02:58
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	35	$270	194	114	+81	No	+$2	07-10 07:47
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	25	$240	150	150	-0	No	-$14	07-22 07:20
wta birrell marcink 2026 08 30	48	$234	245	178	+67	Kimberly Birrell	+$8	08-31 01:14
wta masarov shymano 2026 08 24	25	$231	217	178	+39	Iryna Shymanovich	-$3	08-24 17:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 02:30 UTC	21	$207	315	300	+15	Down	+$2	07-06 02:34
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-06 02:15 UTC	20	$200	210	146	+64	Up	-$26	07-06 02:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 02:55 UTC	19	$198	214	167	+47	Up	-$54	07-06 02:59
atp chopra bigun 2026 08 25	18	$190	124	124	+0	Keshav Chopra	-$5	08-25 20:27
atp borges nakashi 2026 08 19	35	$189	302	0	+302	Brandon Nakashima	+$17	08-20 00:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 02:25 UTC	17	$189	202	136	+66	Down	-$23	07-06 02:29
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 9?	9	$188	99	99	+0	No	+$9	07-09 21:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 03:00 UTC	13	$187	170	109	+61	Up	+$13	07-06 03:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:45 UTC	22	$187	584	29	+555	Up	-$123	07-06 05:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 06:50 UTC	20	$186	234	23	+211	Down	+$29	07-06 06:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 02:10 UTC	19	$170	184	115	+69	Down	-$7	07-06 02:14
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on July 7?	11	$170	93	93	+0	No	+$16	07-07 15:52
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 10?	36	$166	94	94	+0	No	+$5	07-10 20:25
wta bejlek keys 2026 08 21	16	$164	180	12	+168	Sara Bejlek	-$141	08-21 18:08
wta anisimo pegula 2026 08 21	43	$164	394	0	+394	Jessica Pegula	+$52	08-20 19:18
nfl lv hou 2026 08 21	25	$159	281	192	+88	Raiders	-$36	08-21 02:48
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?	7	$151	209	25	+184	Yes	-$122	09-01 17:26
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-06 06:30 UTC	35	$150	164	111	+53	Up	-$6	07-06 06:44
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?	4	$149	180	180	+0	Yes	+$10	08-04 16:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 00:45:34	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xd72cc1…
10-29 00:45:34	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x1114be…
10-29 00:45:17	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	23	14¢	$3	0x8a70b1…
10-29 00:45:14	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	9	14¢	$1	0x574cbf…
10-29 00:45:14	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0x023ec7…
10-29 00:45:13	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x1e37fd…
10-29 00:45:11	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0xd5a95f…
10-29 00:45:11	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0xc5b239…
10-29 00:44:59	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0xbbc17a…
10-29 00:44:59	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0xa8fab6…
10-28 22:54:40	Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?	No	BUY	26	88¢	$23	0xbf61e4…
10-28 19:52:14	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 28?	Yes	SELL	2	27¢	$1	0xe9fc3d…
10-28 19:52:13	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 28?	Yes	SELL	2	24¢	$1	0x65be80…
10-28 19:50:16	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 28?	Yes	SELL	1	34¢	$0	0xc02783…
10-28 19:50:14	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 28?	Yes	SELL	1	34¢	$0	0x2ee464…
10-28 19:48:34	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 28?	Yes	SELL	1	38¢	$0	0xbde127…
10-28 19:48:32	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 28?	Yes	SELL	0	38¢	$0	0x247ee1…
10-28 19:48:10	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 28?	Yes	SELL	2	37¢	$1	0xb2f01e…
10-28 19:47:35	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 28?	Yes	SELL	7	34¢	$2	0x953d70…
10-28 16:40:23	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x764bd6…
10-28 15:36:34	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0x08176c…
10-28 13:49:25	Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?	No	BUY	26	35¢	$9	0x29c934…
10-28 13:43:47	Will FC Barcelona vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw?	No	BUY	26	92¢	$24	0xa1e5f1…
10-28 02:25:03	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0x0ce6a8…
10-27 23:06:48	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x3e7521…
10-27 19:49:02	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 27?	Yes	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x552440…
10-27 19:35:12	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	No	BUY	25	64¢	$16	0x017207…
10-27 19:26:03	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on October 27?	Yes	SELL	3	15¢	$0	0xd99a46…
10-27 18:43:59	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on October 27?	Yes	SELL	0	19¢	$0	0x304bdd…
10-27 18:43:11	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on October 27?	Yes	SELL	0	16¢	$0	0x50e70d…
10-27 18:35:32	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on October 27?	Yes	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0x551369…
10-27 18:30:00	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x8855f4…
10-27 15:38:02	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 27?	Yes	SELL	6	92¢	$5	0x193ff7…
10-27 05:08:51	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on October 27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xa52f97…
10-27 05:04:39	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on October 27?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x3c51b9…
10-27 04:57:35	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on October 27?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xe4606c…
10-27 04:57:33	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on October 27?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x712f3c…
10-27 04:46:56	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0x12ecf6…
10-27 04:34:11	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 27?	Yes	SELL	16	27¢	$4	0xfdcf95…
10-27 04:34:09	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 27?	Yes	SELL	7	27¢	$2	0x85fcaa…
10-27 04:25:08	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on October 27?	No	BUY	21	88¢	$19	0xd54866…
10-27 04:14:47	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 27?	Yes	SELL	3	61¢	$2	0x428b2a…
10-27 04:08:29	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	23	15¢	$3	0x45fa0a…
10-27 04:03:21	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on October 27?	No	BUY	33	71¢	$24	0x4b57a1…
10-27 03:59:35	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on October 27?	No	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0xb1799e…
10-27 00:50:59	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0x8f6e6f…
10-27 00:50:57	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	18	40¢	$7	0x57d7a7…
10-27 00:50:57	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	6	39¢	$2	0x215fc7…
10-26 22:24:32	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on October 26?	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x12b194…
10-26 22:07:44	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on October 26?	Yes	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0xfa4f29…
10-26 22:05:05	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on October 26?	Yes	SELL	2	87¢	$2	0x7211cc…
10-26 22:04:21	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on October 26?	Yes	SELL	2	87¢	$2	0x63d89d…
10-26 22:01:23	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on October 26?	Yes	SELL	0	85¢	$0	0xe3d672…
10-26 22:01:18	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on October 26?	Yes	SELL	2	85¢	$1	0xcb1e2c…
10-26 20:52:36	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	8	30¢	$3	0x210b7e…
10-26 07:57:51	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	26	79¢	$21	0x789dd4…
10-26 07:57:51	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	26	92¢	$24	0x0a23a6…
10-25 23:35:38	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0x292fc8…
10-25 23:34:48	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0xbd3368…
10-25 23:18:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	15	91¢	$14	0x4f522a…
10-25 23:18:03	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0x98b5a9…
10-25 23:17:21	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	16	91¢	$14	0x79bd87…
10-25 22:09:51	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	6	57¢	$4	0xaee5a0…
10-25 22:09:50	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	8	57¢	$5	0x2f94a3…
10-25 22:09:50	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	6	60¢	$4	0x27e252…
10-25 22:09:42	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	3	58¢	$2	0xc86fbf…
10-25 22:09:41	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1	55¢	$0	0xe57a24…
10-25 22:09:41	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0xe0908a…
10-25 22:09:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1	55¢	$0	0xf108b7…
10-25 22:09:24	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	9	55¢	$5	0x0ca342…
10-25 22:09:21	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	6	55¢	$4	0x7d75a6…
10-25 22:08:33	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	22	50¢	$11	0xc763a4…
10-25 22:08:33	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	21	52¢	$11	0x73d490…
10-25 17:40:24	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	17	86¢	$15	0x756044…
10-22 23:26:50	W75 Saguenay: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov	Ariana Arseneault	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xa0639c…
10-22 23:26:39	W75 Saguenay: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov	Ariana Arseneault	BUY	31	80¢	$24	0x967f3a…
10-22 23:25:59	W75 Saguenay: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov	Ariana Arseneault	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x7b3766…
10-22 23:22:51	W75 Saguenay: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov	Katherine Sebov	SELL	2	21¢	$1	0x3ddded…
10-22 23:22:48	W75 Saguenay: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov	Katherine Sebov	SELL	1	21¢	$0	0x3f63ac…
10-22 23:22:39	W75 Saguenay: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov	Katherine Sebov	SELL	0	21¢	$0	0x0ce788…
10-22 23:22:38	W75 Saguenay: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov	Katherine Sebov	SELL	0	21¢	$0	0x921890…
10-22 23:22:35	W75 Saguenay: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov	Katherine Sebov	SELL	3	21¢	$1	0xb32e63…
10-22 23:22:32	W75 Saguenay: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov	Katherine Sebov	SELL	3	21¢	$1	0xc715a0…
10-22 23:22:26	W75 Saguenay: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov	Katherine Sebov	SELL	15	21¢	$3	0x8e0226…
10-22 23:22:24	W75 Saguenay: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov	Katherine Sebov	SELL	1	21¢	$0	0xb6539d…
10-22 23:22:20	W75 Saguenay: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov	Katherine Sebov	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x1f96d8…
10-22 23:22:06	W75 Saguenay: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov	Katherine Sebov	SELL	1	22¢	$0	0xc00500…
10-22 23:22:03	W75 Saguenay: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov	Katherine Sebov	SELL	0	22¢	$0	0xc57e05…
10-22 23:22:00	W75 Saguenay: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov	Katherine Sebov	SELL	0	22¢	$0	0xa66342…
10-22 23:21:59	W75 Saguenay: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov	Katherine Sebov	SELL	4	22¢	$1	0x58920e…
10-22 23:21:56	W75 Saguenay: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov	Katherine Sebov	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x97c195…
10-22 23:21:48	W75 Saguenay: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov	Katherine Sebov	SELL	1	22¢	$0	0xde567e…
10-22 23:21:36	W75 Saguenay: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov	Katherine Sebov	SELL	4	22¢	$1	0x532fd0…
10-22 23:20:38	W75 Saguenay: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov	Katherine Sebov	SELL	3	22¢	$1	0xd1f462…
10-22 23:20:15	W75 Saguenay: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov	Katherine Sebov	SELL	1	23¢	$0	0x3d1964…
10-22 22:57:30	W75 Saguenay: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov	Katherine Sebov	BUY	37	67¢	$25	0xd33ae8…
10-22 22:57:29	W75 Saguenay: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov	Katherine Sebov	BUY	24	67¢	$16	0xf3bf47…
10-22 22:57:05	W75 Saguenay: Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov	Katherine Sebov	BUY	4	62¢	$3	0x36f754…
10-22 20:13:57	W50 Austin: Thea Frodin vs Madison Brengle	Madison Brengle	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x8065e9…
10-22 17:44:38	W50 Austin: Barbora Palicova vs Elizabeth Mandlik	Elizabeth Mandlik	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0x5eba1e…