Realized P&L
-$6.99K
Unrealized P&L
+$886
Hit rate
57.6%
Resolved
8,270
Trades
42,403
lifetime
Volume
$747.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$18
Open exposure
$53.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-08-09
last 11-01 00:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 82 days
Categories
Other
58% 77% -$6,628
Politics
37% 73% -$1,679
Tech
3% 68% +$1,388
Sports
1% 68% +$15
Pop-Culture
0% 47% -$78
Crypto
0% 50% -$8
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 944 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +8,351 $4,061 66¢ $5.5K +$1,422 10-27 15:30
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +7,283 $5,085 70¢ $5.1K -$20 10-31 20:27
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +3,880 $3,179 90¢ $3.5K +$294 10-31 11:44
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +8,179 $4,225 34¢ $2.8K -$1,416 10-27 15:30
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +8,361 $2,595 30¢ $2.5K -$45 10-31 20:27
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? No +3,825 $2,862 66¢ $2.5K -$357 10-31 18:58
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +2,872 $2,275 78¢ $2.3K -$23 10-31 20:24
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? No +2,463 $2,123 83¢ $2.0K -$77 10-31 14:21
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +1,916 $1,778 94¢ $1.8K +$30 10-31 17:10
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No +3,079 $1,454 58¢ $1.8K +$317 10-31 00:41
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +2,303 $1,862 76¢ $1.7K -$120 10-31 03:18
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? No +2,391 $1,793 72¢ $1.7K -$59 10-29 12:32
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? No +2,450 $1,838 67¢ $1.6K -$197 10-31 11:50
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? No +4,367 $1,192 34¢ $1.5K +$304 10-31 22:02
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +1,773 $1,332 84¢ $1.5K +$158 10-31 17:06
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No +1,626 $1,134 84¢ $1.4K +$224 10-21 13:11
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +2,119 $917 64¢ $1.3K +$429 10-27 09:06
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? No +1,639 $1,001 72¢ $1.2K +$188 10-31 22:55
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No +2,669 $1,430 44¢ $1.2K -$269 10-30 18:20
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1,137 $1,002 95¢ $1.1K +$78 10-27 10:21
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +1,685 $1,331 60¢ $1.0K -$319 10-30 13:41
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +1,448 $1,053 70¢ $1.0K -$47 10-31 16:21
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No +1,261 $875 80¢ $1.0K +$127 10-29 21:38
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +2,116 $599 47¢ $995 +$396 10-29 20:29
Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026? No +1,078 $954 92¢ $987 +$33 10-31 23:54
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? No +1,287 $870 76¢ $972 +$102 10-28 08:43
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +1,342 $828 70¢ $946 +$118 10-26 20:53
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +2,045 $1,364 44¢ $910 -$454 10-31 18:28
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes +1,020 $879 88¢ $902 +$23 10-28 17:15
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No +1,586 $816 55¢ $865 +$48 10-30 17:10