Probable-Clock — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$73

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

51.5%

Resolved

Trades

151

lifetime

Volume

$775

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 06-03 23:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

95% 28% +$73

Sports

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 61 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (13) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	2	$49	45	45	+0	Down	+$39	05-10 00:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	2	$49	45	45	+0	Down	+$39	05-10 00:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	4	$22	176	60	+116	Up	+$6	05-10 13:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	3	$15	529	0	+529	open	—	06-02 19:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	3	$15	285	0	+285	Down	$-15	05-10 00:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	3	$15	81	0	+81	Down	+$58	05-08 15:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	3	$14	555	0	+555	open	—	06-02 19:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	3	$11	256	0	+256	Up	$-11	05-10 00:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	2	$10	600	0	+600	Up	$-10	05-08 15:43
btc updown 5m 1776031500	1	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	04-12 22:01
btc updown 5m 1776031200	1	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	04-12 21:59
btc updown 5m 1776030600	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	04-12 21:53
nba sac por 2026 04 12 total 227pt5	1	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	04-12 21:40
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	1	$10	24	0	+24	open	—	04-13 07:41
mlb tex lad 2026 04 12	1	$10	14	0	+14	open	—	04-12 22:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	2	$10	129	0	+129	open	—	06-02 12:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	2	$10	133	0	+133	Down	$-10	05-08 16:02
btc updown 5m 1776069000	2	$10	30	0	+30	open	—	04-13 08:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	2	$9	295	0	+295	Down	$-9	05-10 13:04
eth updown 5m 1776072300	2	$7	207	0	+207	open	—	04-13 09:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	2	$7	105	0	+105	Up	$-7	05-08 15:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	2	$6	100	0	+100	Down	$-6	05-10 00:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	2	$6	1,066	0	+1,066	Down	$-6	05-09 23:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	2	$6	108	0	+108	Up	$-6	05-10 00:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	06-02 19:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	06-02 17:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	06-02 19:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	06-02 19:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	06-02 14:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	06-02 19:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-03 23:46:43	btc updown 5m 1780533900	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xa1f263…
06-03 23:46:06	btc updown 5m 1780533600	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x627aa8…
06-03 23:45:58	btc updown 5m 1780533300	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf5a733…
06-03 23:45:49	btc updown 5m 1780533000	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xb5dd36…
06-03 23:45:37	btc updown 5m 1780532700	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xb4269f…
06-03 23:45:24	btc updown 5m 1780532400	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x4a15b5…
06-03 23:45:16	btc updown 5m 1780532100	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x1c6692…
06-03 23:45:01	btc updown 5m 1780531800	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x902077…
06-03 23:44:42	btc updown 5m 1780531500	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x10904d…
06-03 23:44:31	btc updown 5m 1780531200	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x26735b…
06-03 23:44:21	btc updown 5m 1780530900	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xae4cd5…
06-03 23:44:12	btc updown 5m 1780530600	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xd664e6…
06-03 23:44:04	btc updown 5m 1780530300	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x477e3d…
06-03 13:28:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xf53bf2…
06-03 12:59:40	btc updown 5m 1780491300	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xe2c4e1…
06-03 12:58:44	eth updown 5m 1780491300	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x4376ca…
06-03 09:04:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	47	11¢	$5	0xd38137…
06-02 22:03:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xb7c67b…
06-02 19:40:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x82bd48…
06-02 19:40:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x6eb9d2…
06-02 19:40:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x2b7408…
06-02 19:40:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x01eb47…
06-02 19:39:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x3d811a…
06-02 19:36:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xeb279a…
06-02 19:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x769247…
06-02 19:30:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x9a9d9f…
06-02 19:30:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xd08736…
06-02 19:30:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x9dd3c8…
06-02 19:29:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x322da2…
06-02 19:28:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	45	9¢	$4	0x925b27…
06-02 19:24:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xf04588…
06-02 19:24:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe3c78e…
06-02 19:24:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x0f941e…
06-02 19:24:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xff92a6…
06-02 19:24:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x578522…
06-02 19:23:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x93b741…
06-02 19:23:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xaf5336…
06-02 19:23:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x279fbd…
06-02 19:23:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xd982af…
06-02 19:23:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x06c392…
06-02 19:23:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xa91b86…
06-02 19:23:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x605ef6…
06-02 19:23:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xa89b93…
06-02 19:23:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x796ecb…
06-02 19:23:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x975792…
06-02 19:22:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x2c7e28…
06-02 19:22:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x93be37…
06-02 19:22:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf4ac9d…
06-02 19:22:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x683310…
06-02 17:41:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x0b14cf…
06-02 17:41:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x3e07b2…
06-02 17:41:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf91a4e…
06-02 17:41:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x69c3aa…
06-02 17:41:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x71f3b7…
06-02 17:41:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x7fbc7e…
06-02 17:41:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x9ace95…
06-02 17:40:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xd62657…
06-02 17:40:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x26d6cf…
06-02 17:40:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x16ddbe…
06-02 17:40:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x4e9a99…
06-02 17:40:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x1c1586…
06-02 17:40:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x0410ed…
06-02 17:40:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x55d359…
06-02 17:40:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x8e3016…
06-02 14:07:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x026869…
06-02 14:07:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xd7a316…
06-02 14:06:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x5cb289…
06-02 14:06:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x1b8bf3…
06-02 14:06:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x531c98…
06-02 14:06:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x5f46e2…
06-02 14:06:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x3183a9…
06-02 14:06:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x94554a…
06-02 14:06:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x484ae4…
06-02 14:05:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x3571c7…
06-02 14:05:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x4bcc4d…
06-02 14:03:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x6abd4a…
06-02 12:12:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xcf3f9d…
06-02 12:11:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xda43e8…
05-10 19:28:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x43e794…
05-10 15:03:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x4f454d…
05-10 14:52:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xc9b641…
05-10 14:07:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xbe2f8b…
05-10 13:27:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xe4cd48…
05-10 13:24:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x974618…
05-10 13:22:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	16	14¢	$2	0x489f30…
05-10 13:22:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	SELL	60	24¢	$14	0x30f23a…
05-10 13:22:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0x265b01…
05-10 13:19:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x3d5b70…
05-10 13:19:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x04157d…
05-10 13:14:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x429570…
05-10 13:07:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	14	9¢	$1	0x5cc828…
05-10 13:04:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x5d17c1…
05-10 13:04:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	45	8¢	$4	0xc92bd8…
05-10 12:59:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xd89d41…
05-10 07:53:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	82	6¢	$5	0x0e8964…
05-10 00:53:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	47	11¢	$5	0x5ad3f7…
05-10 00:48:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x93cf01…
05-10 00:46:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	73	7¢	$5	0xe42d28…
05-10 00:46:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x4111f6…
05-10 00:43:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x1ac82e…