Secret-Allegation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$10.6K

Unrealized P&L

-$3.40K

Hit rate

74.6%

Resolved

628

Trades

1,686

lifetime

Volume

$187.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$111

Open exposure

$7.79K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 23:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Other

72% 89% +$12,178

Tech

15% 27% -$1,908

Crypto

13% 98% +$302

Politics

0% 100% +$42

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 269 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	+9,703	$4,934	50¢	$4.9K	-$82	10-27 07:26
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	+2,000	$1,220	66¢	$1.3K	+$90	10-18 07:09
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	+2,535	$1,126	44¢	$1.1K	-$23	10-09 17:46
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?	No	+405	$381	95¢	$386	+$6	06-18 20:28
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+3,742	$3,529	4¢	$137	-$3,392	10-27 21:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?	9	$14.6K	0	14,691	-14,691	Yes	-$119	06-08 01:44
grok 5 released by march 31 2026	76	$12.9K	15,040	0	+15,040	No	+$2,186	02-19 07:09
will grok 4pt20 be released on january 21 2026	4	$12.8K	10,898	2,030	+8,868	No	+$126	01-21 23:27
grok 4pt20 released by february 28 844	71	$10.2K	15,660	1,401	+14,260	Yes	+$5,177	02-16 08:22
will grok 4pt20 not be released by january 31 2026	70	$9.3K	10,183	0	+10,183	Yes	+$924	01-28 07:00
grok 4pt20 released by january 31 273	60	$8.9K	9,795	439	+9,356	No	+$591	01-28 07:01
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?	1	$7.8K	8,763	0	+8,763	Yes	+$976	07-21 07:05
grok 4pt20 released by march 31 147	20	$6.0K	3,474	3,474	-0	Yes	-$202	02-17 20:19
grok 4pt20 released by january 15 984	72	$5.9K	9,030	0	+9,030	No	+$3,158	01-10 10:30
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	29	$5.7K	13,664	9,922	+3,742	open	—	10-27 21:19
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	1	$5.2K	0	5,245	-5,245	No	-$77	05-17 04:57
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor?	24	$5.1K	5,174	735	+4,439	Yes	+$330	06-12 17:20
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	15	$4.9K	9,703	0	+9,703	open	—	10-27 07:26
grok 4pt20 released by january 9	30	$4.6K	4,512	500	+4,012	No	+$423	01-10 01:25
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	5	$4.5K	0	4,568	-4,568	Yes	-$79	06-08 01:38
grok 4pt20 released by february 14	18	$3.5K	2,445	1,268	+1,177	No	+$146	02-15 04:56
grok 4pt20 released by april 20 988 375 998 452	6	$3.4K	1,751	1,751	+0	Yes	+$1	02-17 20:16
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?	15	$3.1K	3,733	0	+3,733	Yes	+$679	10-09 17:44
will xai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 497	21	$2.5K	3,469	1,161	+2,307	No	+$91	02-19 06:52
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	14	$2.1K	16,415	80	+16,335	No	-$2,138	04-08 08:52
will grok 4pt20 be released on january 20 2026	2	$1.9K	1,895	0	+1,895	No	+$16	01-20 08:51
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	10	$1.9K	933	1,076	-143	No	+$85	06-12 17:01
grok 4pt4 released by june 30	9	$1.8K	1,377	1,267	+110	No	-$247	06-26 17:16
grok 4pt4 released by july 31 883	20	$1.8K	2,158	489	+1,669	Yes	+$431	07-06 17:59
grok 4pt4 released by july 17	15	$1.7K	2,341	0	+2,341	Yes	+$614	07-07 09:06
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	2	$1.7K	0	1,729	-1,729	Yes	-$11	06-08 01:41
grok 4pt4 released by june 15	6	$1.6K	1,026	612	+414	No	+$61	06-12 17:15
Meta's Watermelon released by October 15, 2026?	12	$1.5K	2,240	0	+2,240	Yes	+$702	10-09 17:44
will grok 4pt20 not be released by february 14 2026	3	$1.4K	1,442	94	+1,348	Yes	+$97	02-15 04:58
will the next grok model released by xai debut at a score of at least 1460 by december 31 2026 20260708011851340	5	$1.4K	4,793	0	+4,793	No	-$1,382	07-10 17:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 23:13:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0xf8ab88…
10-27 23:13:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0xd5a1e0…
10-27 21:19:54	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,400	2¢	$25	0x9c3b50…
10-27 20:53:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x48bf6f…
10-27 20:53:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0xabc2f1…
10-27 20:53:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0x489e15…
10-27 20:53:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0x9dbaa4…
10-27 20:53:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0xea322d…
10-27 20:53:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0xac5919…
10-27 20:38:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0xcb6299…
10-27 20:38:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	46	91¢	$42	0xb18c60…
10-27 20:38:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	45	93¢	$42	0xcf8107…
10-27 20:38:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	43	96¢	$42	0xd27eaa…
10-27 20:38:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	43	96¢	$42	0x3aca3d…
10-27 20:38:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0x1dcd43…
10-27 20:33:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0x142086…
10-27 20:33:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0x1b3048…
10-27 20:33:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0xc85556…
10-27 20:33:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0x453625…
10-27 20:29:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	15	87¢	$13	0x6fab3c…
10-27 20:08:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	39	98¢	$38	0xfea5d3…
10-27 20:08:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0xec0cda…
10-27 20:08:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0xab2daf…
10-27 20:08:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0x25a4ad…
10-27 20:08:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x63f577…
10-27 20:08:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	43	96¢	$42	0x4d8c39…
10-27 20:03:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	39	96¢	$38	0x8d3177…
10-27 20:03:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	43	96¢	$42	0x165978…
10-27 20:03:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x124b6d…
10-27 20:03:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	43	96¢	$42	0xe08407…
10-27 20:03:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	43	96¢	$42	0x529cb0…
10-27 20:03:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	44	96¢	$42	0x1ce567…
10-27 18:10:39	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	124	6¢	$8	0x303cc1…
10-27 15:23:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe5d254…
10-27 15:14:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	45	93¢	$42	0x7df379…
10-27 15:14:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	45	93¢	$42	0x1e3337…
10-27 15:04:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x90b942…
10-27 14:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	24	97¢	$23	0x459c91…
10-27 14:43:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0x27d1fe…
10-27 14:43:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0xf007e1…
10-27 14:43:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0x5c3265…
10-27 14:33:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x045a7d…
10-27 14:29:42	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6c7fe6…
10-27 14:28:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0xf70b88…
10-27 14:28:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0xccbb41…
10-27 14:08:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	45	94¢	$42	0xbd80fe…
10-27 14:08:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0xc77747…
10-27 14:08:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0xa050f4…
10-27 14:04:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	44	95¢	$42	0x16bb9a…
10-27 14:04:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	44	95¢	$42	0x8c3fb2…
10-27 13:48:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	24	92¢	$22	0xab8332…
10-27 13:48:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	43	96¢	$42	0x973033…
10-27 13:48:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	44	96¢	$42	0xec19cc…
10-27 13:48:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	44	95¢	$42	0x1ed01f…
10-27 13:43:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	24	92¢	$22	0x9bf0b4…
10-27 13:43:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	46	92¢	$42	0xf0701e…
10-27 13:43:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	44	95¢	$42	0xee858a…
10-27 13:43:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0x3bb77c…
10-27 13:43:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x3a0440…
10-27 13:43:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0xc69a41…
10-27 13:43:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x56d067…
10-27 13:34:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x2003d0…
10-27 13:13:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8c35ac…
10-27 13:13:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0xb81dd7…
10-27 13:13:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	43	98¢	$42	0xe1b184…
10-27 13:13:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x06367f…
10-27 12:58:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	43	98¢	$42	0x8691a8…
10-27 12:58:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x7ceb26…
10-27 12:58:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x0575f7…
10-27 12:58:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	43	96¢	$42	0x798196…
10-27 12:53:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	45	92¢	$42	0x160c69…
10-27 12:53:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	45	92¢	$42	0x83929e…
10-27 12:48:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	23	92¢	$21	0xaeb2fa…
10-27 12:48:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	45	92¢	$42	0x33da27…
10-27 12:48:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	45	92¢	$42	0x54a6af…
10-27 12:48:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	45	93¢	$42	0x19c9f4…
10-27 12:44:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0x148ad0…
10-27 12:44:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0xae6035…
10-27 12:44:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x59c38d…
10-27 12:39:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0xd7a410…
10-27 12:39:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x1aa5c3…
10-27 12:33:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	23	96¢	$22	0x148e63…
10-27 12:33:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0x332857…
10-27 12:33:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x07c94b…
10-27 12:33:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0x329c72…
10-27 12:14:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	44	95¢	$42	0x9311a3…
10-27 12:03:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	23	95¢	$22	0x97ec2a…
10-27 12:03:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	44	94¢	$42	0x4331ad…
10-27 12:03:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	45	93¢	$42	0xfc71aa…
10-27 12:03:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	45	93¢	$42	0x171881…
10-27 11:18:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0x4bab50…
10-27 11:08:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0xb2a04e…
10-27 11:08:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	23	97¢	$23	0x910bcf…
10-27 11:08:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	43	96¢	$42	0xe84694…
10-27 11:08:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	44	95¢	$42	0x27cb52…
10-27 11:03:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x24060f…
10-27 10:59:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	42	98¢	$42	0x73d28c…
10-27 10:59:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	44	95¢	$42	0x0e59a4…
10-27 10:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	44	95¢	$42	0x8bc787…
10-27 10:53:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	23	98¢	$23	0x10ebce…