Relieved-Pence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

11.3%

Resolved

Trades

103

lifetime

Volume

$304

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-03

last 08-11 15:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

59% 25% $-5

Other

32% — —

Sports

7% — —

Pop-Culture

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will trump say million or billion 15 times during friday roundtable 20260805211427271	2	$19	14	14	+0	open	—	08-07 19:44
will dollar be said 10 times during the next episode of the all in podcast	2	$16	10	10	+0	open	—	04-17 22:53
will trump say jesus this week march 8	2	$12	14	14	+0	open	—	03-09 09:17
Will Trump say "Keir" or "Starmer" during King Charles visit?	2	$10	10	10	+0	open	—	04-28 09:16
Will Trump say "Regarded" this week?	2	$9	15	15	+0	No	$-1	05-06 08:22
will the announcers say hattrick or hat trick during the england vs dr congo fifa world cup match 20260630205034690	2	$8	12	12	+0	open	—	07-01 17:54
will trump say made in america during no tax on tips roundtable	2	$8	21	0	+21	open	—	04-17 00:04
will trump say tax 30 times during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421446	3	$6	9	3	+6	open	—	08-05 21:15
will trump say sleepy joe during miami address	2	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	03-09 21:43
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Cabinet meeting?	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	05-27 16:53
will trump say stupid or low iq during meetings with chancellor merz	2	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	03-03 17:25
will trump say ceasefire during monday press conference	2	$5	12	12	+0	open	—	03-09 23:56
Will Trump say "Waste" or "Fraud" 2+ times during WHCA Dinner events?	1	$5	12	0	+12	open	—	04-25 12:39
will trump say world cup during speech to the nation 20260713200621432	1	$5	12	0	+12	open	—	07-14 11:00
Will Trump say "Queen" during King Charles visit?	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	04-27 18:06
will penalty be said 5 times during the 2026 sidemen charity match	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	04-18 10:03
Will Leavitt say "Ceasefire" during the next White House press briefing?	1	$5	8	0	+8	open	—	04-15 17:01
will trump say no no no this week april 19	1	$5	15	0	+15	open	—	04-19 14:06
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 320 339	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	03-10 12:45
will starmer say oil or gas during the next prime ministers questions event	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	04-12 21:27
atp mensik shelton 2026 08 11	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	08-11 15:25
will trump say research and development or rd during healthcare event	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	04-23 11:18
will trump say medal of freedom during tpusa events on april 17	1	$5	8	0	+8	open	—	04-17 15:17
Will King Charles say "King" or "Kingdom" during the joint meeting of Congress?	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	04-28 17:07
will the announcers say ronaldo during the argentina vs cape verde fifa world cup match 20260702193236646	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	07-03 11:29
will trump say manufacture or manufacturing during miami address 756	2	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	03-09 21:17
will trump say democrat 5 times during miami address	2	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	03-09 21:08
elon musk of tweets march 7 march 9 90 114	2	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	03-09 16:09
will trump say nato during meetings with chancellor merz	2	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-03 17:11
Will Candace Owens or Hunter Biden say "Covid" on Thursday?	1	$4	6	0	+6	open	—	05-21 09:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 15:25:39	atp mensik shelton 2026 08 11	Ben Shelton	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xc7e77d…
08-07 19:44:48	will trump say million or billion 15 times during friday roundtable 20260805211427271	Yes	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0xf333f3…
08-06 11:05:45	will trump say million or billion 15 times during friday roundtable 20260805211427271	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xceb628…
08-05 21:15:32	will trump say tax 30 times during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421446	No	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x34604d…
08-05 20:37:35	will trump say tax 30 times during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421446	Yes	SELL	3	59¢	$2	0x44e5dc…
08-05 20:34:03	will trump say tax 30 times during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421446	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x3f807d…
07-30 16:46:08	will trump say oil or gas or gasoline during announcement on freedom haulers 20260730133922112	Yes	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xb266f1…
07-14 11:00:01	will trump say world cup during speech to the nation 20260713200621432	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xd04ed0…
07-03 11:29:19	will the announcers say ronaldo during the argentina vs cape verde fifa world cup match 20260702193236646	Yes	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xcb8de8…
07-01 17:54:19	will the announcers say hattrick or hat trick during the england vs dr congo fifa world cup match 20260630205034690	Yes	SELL	12	27¢	$3	0xd06dfb…
07-01 16:30:37	will the announcers say hattrick or hat trick during the england vs dr congo fifa world cup match 20260630205034690	Yes	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x8d9729…
06-18 11:20:59	will the announcers say what a save during the czechia vs south africa fifa world cup match 20260616211456429	Yes	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x67c2cc…
06-13 10:43:18	will mrbeast say cash during his next youtube video 20260609182228653	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x9ead80…
06-11 10:48:31	will ai be said 50 times during the next episode of the all in podcast 20260605165706064	Yes	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xdff3d7…
06-04 20:50:36	will trump say fossil or fuel during coal announcement 20260604130800085 346	No	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x4199f1…
06-02 17:44:24	Will Starmer say "Investment" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x87ef2d…
05-28 11:27:57	Will Vance say "President" or "Trump" 10+ times during Air Force Academy Address?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x5b1c31…
05-28 11:27:43	Will Vance say "Commitment" during Air Force Academy Address?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xbf2f85…
05-27 16:53:18	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Cabinet meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x587516…
05-27 11:08:40	will xi be said on the lemonade stand podcast	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x17f79d…
05-21 09:21:18	Will Candace Owens or Hunter Biden say "Covid" on Thursday?	Yes	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x9ae18e…
05-20 16:33:29	Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during Coast Guard event?	Yes	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0xf13a95…
05-20 16:15:46	Will Trump say "Fighter" during Coast Guard event?	Yes	SELL	4	48¢	$2	0x969a3a…
05-20 14:25:05	Will Trump say "Fighter" during Coast Guard event?	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x3f8305…
05-19 09:36:59	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x72e329…
05-15 11:24:35	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	3	18¢	$1	0xa5c2db…
05-15 06:54:59	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x958b38…
05-07 06:47:42	Will Trump say "President Xi" during events with Brazilian president?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x957963…
05-06 17:59:39	Will Trump say "Get along" or "Getting along" during events with Brazilian president?	Yes	BUY	6	61¢	$3	0xe494db…
05-06 14:43:06	Will Trump or Melania say "School" at the Military Mothers event?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x004b85…
05-06 08:22:40	Will Trump say "Regarded" this week?	Yes	SELL	15	28¢	$4	0x404d31…
05-02 16:38:26	Will MrBeast say "Feastable" or "Feastables" during his next video?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x9af789…
05-02 16:28:12	Will MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next video?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xf54c14…
05-02 16:05:44	Will MrBeast say "Insane" during his next video?	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x7aa707…
05-02 13:38:18	Will Trump say "Regarded" this week?	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x1a4afd…
05-02 08:52:04	Will MrBeast say "Donate" or "Donated" during his next video?	Yes	BUY	13	24¢	$3	0x421154…
04-28 17:07:54	Will King Charles say "King" or "Kingdom" during the joint meeting of Congress?	Yes	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xdd4018…
04-28 09:16:10	Will Trump say "Keir" or "Starmer" during King Charles visit?	Yes	SELL	10	54¢	$5	0x25425b…
04-27 18:06:06	Will Trump say "Queen" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xf8a0c8…
04-27 08:52:36	Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xea1c41…
04-27 08:52:16	Will Trump say "Keir" or "Starmer" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x9b315a…
04-25 12:39:04	Will Trump say "Waste" or "Fraud" 2+ times during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x4077a8…
04-23 11:18:06	will trump say research and development or rd during healthcare event	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x7dbc50…
04-19 14:06:26	will trump say no no no this week april 19	Yes	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0x2ee008…
04-18 10:03:58	will penalty be said 5 times during the 2026 sidemen charity match	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xa128b2…
04-17 22:53:24	will dollar be said 10 times during the next episode of the all in podcast	Yes	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xb8c039…
04-17 15:17:30	will trump say medal of freedom during tpusa events on april 17	Yes	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x0e8525…
04-17 07:54:00	will dollar be said 10 times during the next episode of the all in podcast	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xd1fde7…
04-17 00:04:10	will trump say made in america during no tax on tips roundtable	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x25da12…
04-16 22:43:22	will trump say made in america during no tax on tips roundtable	Yes	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0xc3701d…
04-15 17:07:22	Will Leavitt say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the next White House press briefing?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x52dc9f…
04-15 17:03:08	Will Leavitt say "President" 55+ times during the next White House press briefing?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xe4cdbc…
04-15 17:01:40	Will Leavitt say "Ceasefire" during the next White House press briefing?	Yes	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x2b2314…
04-14 20:49:46	will starmer say urgent during the next prime ministers questions event	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xdff340…
04-14 20:42:00	will starmer say renewables during the next prime ministers questions event	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xb3050a…
04-12 21:27:09	will starmer say oil or gas during the next prime ministers questions event	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x8f1ed2…
04-06 10:37:59	will trump say nato during monday news conference	Yes	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0xc80ca8…
04-01 22:01:41	will trump say oil or gas 3 times during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0xd3013c…
03-27 17:18:21	will trump say dairy during national agriculture day events	No	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0x2a127c…
03-26 16:41:27	will trump say cyprus during greek independence day event	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xc037ed…
03-26 16:02:07	will trump say cuba during cabinet meeting on march 26	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xff6158…
03-15 15:25:09	will hottest be said at the oscars	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x0d15c4…
03-15 15:20:23	will mrbeast hit 477 million subscribers by march 31 246 645 675 153 553	Yes	SELL	42	1¢	$1	0xe4c45f…
03-11 13:29:21	will trump say eli lilly during ohio visit	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xf5329a…
03-11 13:28:39	will epstein be said at the oscars	Yes	SELL	4	36¢	$2	0x48aff5…
03-11 13:28:33	will trump be said at the oscars	Yes	SELL	3	54¢	$2	0x28db6a…
03-11 13:28:03	will trump say ivf during ohio visit	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x0d03c0…
03-10 16:44:09	will fuck him up be said on the first joe rogan experience episode of the week march 15	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x985c82…
03-10 13:31:49	will starmer say intervene during the next prime ministers questions event	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x02948f…
03-10 13:23:41	will holy shit be said on the first joe rogan experience episode of the week march 15	Yes	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x4139fc…
03-10 12:45:53	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 320 339	Yes	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xba78e2…
03-10 12:45:07	will mrbeast hit 490 million subscribers by march 31 772 164 857 377 793 556 125 855 849	Yes	SELL	119	0¢	$0	0xcd91f2…
03-09 23:56:55	will trump say ceasefire during monday press conference	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0xc406b9…
03-09 22:15:55	will trump say ceasefire during monday press conference	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x39d235…
03-09 21:43:25	will trump say sleepy joe during miami address	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x4d09a2…
03-09 21:17:35	will trump say manufacture or manufacturing during miami address 756	Yes	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0xf42a43…
03-09 21:08:55	will trump say democrat 5 times during miami address	Yes	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x37b46a…
03-09 17:30:09	will trump say manufacture or manufacturing during miami address 756	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x9f00e6…
03-09 17:29:35	will trump say sleepy joe during miami address	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xe9839c…
03-09 17:26:17	will trump say democrat 5 times during miami address	Yes	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xff75dd…
03-09 17:13:37	will mrbeast hit 500 million subscribers by march 31 553 452 464 445 672 654 894 237 216	Yes	SELL	99	0¢	$0	0x8ba918…
03-09 17:11:29	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 300 319	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x6a38b6…
03-09 16:09:47	elon musk of tweets march 7 march 9 90 114	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xb3f95c…
03-09 12:06:51	us strikes iraq by march 7	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x9e6790…
03-09 11:06:17	will mrbeasts next video get between 46 and 49 million views on day 3	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x61e477…
03-09 11:00:07	elon musk of tweets march 7 march 9 90 114	Yes	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xa13dd2…
03-09 09:17:21	will trump say jesus this week march 8	Yes	SELL	14	77¢	$11	0x0d2d46…
03-08 19:14:53	will trump say jesus this week march 8	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x9eea81…
03-05 13:04:19	will mrbeast hit 477 million subscribers by march 31 246 645 675 153 553	Yes	BUY	42	7¢	$3	0xe36e8a…
03-05 12:48:33	will mrbeast hit 490 million subscribers by march 31 772 164 857 377 793 556 125 855 849	Yes	BUY	119	2¢	$2	0x1146b8…
03-05 12:48:25	will mrbeast hit 500 million subscribers by march 31 553 452 464 445 672 654 894 237 216	Yes	BUY	99	2¢	$2	0x9eb577…
03-05 11:39:07	will trump be said at the oscars	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x0609de…
03-05 11:36:07	will epstein be said at the oscars	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x34aac2…
03-05 10:06:31	will performance be said during the nyc apple event on march 4	Yes	SELL	2	4¢	$0	0x862de0…
03-05 10:06:29	will ipad be said during the nyc apple event on march 4	Yes	SELL	2	6¢	$0	0xd34676…
03-04 12:51:35	Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" during his next YouTube video?	Yes	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x6f6df1…
03-04 12:02:35	will conspiracy be said on the first joe rogan experience episode of the week march 8	Yes	BUY	1,653	0¢	$2	0xb91e31…
03-03 17:39:55	will ipad be said during the nyc apple event on march 4	Yes	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x2ccc38…
03-03 17:39:29	will performance be said during the nyc apple event on march 4	Yes	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x4a0d13…
03-03 17:25:53	will trump say stupid or low iq during meetings with chancellor merz	Yes	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xd26fa4…