Natural-Whale — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$374

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

65.6%

Resolved

Trades

147

lifetime

Volume

$19.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$135

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 10-29 10:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Politics

60% 88% -$398

Crypto

21% 96% +$6

Other

19% 86% +$18

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	7	$4.1K	2,466	2,226	+240	Yes	-$203	04-04 15:31
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	6	$4.0K	2,400	2,200	+200	No	+$26	03-29 04:21
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	48	$2.8K	2,000	1,690	+310	Yes	-$227	03-27 13:05
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	6	$2.2K	2,180	0	+2,180	No	+$2	03-24 12:28
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	1	$2.1K	2,100	0	+2,100	Yes	+$2	03-23 13:13
will bitcoin reach 90k in february 2026	2	$218	110	110	+0	No	+$1	02-23 09:47
will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by february 18 2026 264	2	$206	104	104	+0	No	+$0	02-19 09:51
will ethereum dip to 1600 in february 2026	2	$200	101	101	+0	No	+$0	02-27 13:48
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	2	$161	162	0	+162	Yes	+$1	03-16 08:26
bitcoin above 76k on march 7	1	$150	150	0	+150	No	+$0	03-07 11:09
Tria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	1	$144	144	0	+144	Yes	+$0	02-04 02:28
Espresso FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$144	144	0	+144	No	+$0	02-13 07:56
ethereum above 2400 on february 7	1	$141	141	0	+141	No	+$0	02-07 13:49
bitcoin above 60k on february 23	1	$140	141	0	+141	Yes	+$1	02-23 09:47
bitcoin above 60k on march 4	1	$140	140	0	+140	Yes	+$0	03-04 11:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$135	135	0	+135	No	+$0	05-15 15:27
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22?	2	$132	132	0	+132	No	+$0	06-22 03:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$130	130	0	+130	No	+$0	05-23 03:18
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 30?	1	$130	130	0	+130	No	+$0	06-30 06:10
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	1	$130	130	0	+130	Yes	+$0	06-17 02:59
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 3?	1	$130	130	0	+130	No	+$0	08-03 07:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$129	130	0	+130	No	+$1	04-30 06:57
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	1	$129	130	0	+130	No	+$1	06-07 03:40
lol gen fox1 2026 03 01	1	$125	128	0	+128	Gen.G	+$3	03-01 09:51
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?	1	$125	125	0	+125	Yes	+$0	04-14 14:13
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$120	121	0	+121	Yes	+$1	01-22 10:38
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$120	121	0	+121	Yes	+$1	01-25 09:55
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on July 8?	1	$120	120	0	+120	No	+$0	07-08 03:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	1	$120	120	0	+120	No	+$0	05-11 09:40
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	1	$119	122	0	+122	No	+$3	05-08 09:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 10:33:34	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xc8b081…
10-29 10:33:29	LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Team Liquid	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x152270…
10-29 10:33:14	LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xf89838…
10-29 10:33:08	LoL: Karmine Corp vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Karmine Corp	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x8b7ae5…
09-29 12:30:38	lol hkg kor 2026 09 30	South Korea	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x0e23c5…
09-29 12:30:30	lol ind kor 2026 09 29	South Korea	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x89857c…
09-29 12:29:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x057a69…
09-11 02:13:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xc537e6…
08-03 07:04:59	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 3?	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x7a70fe…
07-08 03:10:07	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on July 8?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0xac7b91…
06-30 06:10:02	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 30?	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x6e7b14…
06-22 03:03:11	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x52fbe3…
06-22 03:02:32	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x187cc8…
06-17 02:59:01	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x9c9ac6…
06-17 02:48:15	Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x46503a…
06-07 03:40:45	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	130	99¢	$129	0x31c793…
05-23 03:18:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x5ef877…
05-23 02:56:08	LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In	Invictus Gaming	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xce8810…
05-15 15:27:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	135	100¢	$135	0x092c2c…
05-11 09:40:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0xb5234f…
05-08 09:33:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	122	98¢	$119	0x950ad1…
05-05 08:58:12	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	22	96¢	$21	0x494e4f…
05-05 08:57:50	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	66	96¢	$64	0x06cda5…
05-05 08:57:44	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x882473…
04-30 06:57:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	91	100¢	$90	0x74194a…
04-30 06:52:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0xd018af…
04-24 06:12:44	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	No	BUY	120	99¢	$119	0xb9fe60…
04-22 07:29:20	USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x4cafd4…
04-14 14:13:51	Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0x037658…
04-04 15:31:45	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	240	98¢	$236	0x390a89…
03-29 04:21:22	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0xe1e6c5…
03-28 05:15:09	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	1,027	87¢	$893	0x798262…
03-27 15:21:25	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	987	85¢	$839	0x4e45f7…
03-27 15:17:35	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	33	85¢	$28	0x6b38a7…
03-27 14:55:43	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x317976…
03-27 13:05:43	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	SELL	1,198	75¢	$899	0x230f53…
03-27 12:28:05	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	1,200	86¢	$1,032	0xb990d0…
03-27 12:16:17	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	1,200	85¢	$1,020	0x8eeef7…
03-27 11:54:15	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	741	75¢	$556	0x2dea4d…
03-27 11:53:43	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	120	75¢	$90	0xf2e6ed…
03-27 11:51:59	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x31d966…
03-27 11:51:57	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x4103c6…
03-27 11:50:31	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0xde5357…
03-27 11:48:17	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	SELL	250	76¢	$190	0x401416…
03-27 11:43:31	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	SELL	3	76¢	$3	0x039b5c…
03-27 11:42:17	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x73e5d7…
03-27 11:42:15	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0xa8102f…
03-27 11:41:43	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	SELL	22	76¢	$16	0xebce4a…
03-27 11:41:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x823c5e…
03-27 11:41:11	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x1cee88…
03-27 11:40:15	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x0889b1…
03-27 11:40:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x1e76de…
03-27 11:39:11	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x84c125…
03-27 11:39:09	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0xfa5305…
03-27 11:38:33	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x380b74…
03-27 11:38:17	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0xd0db91…
03-27 11:38:17	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x6ad393…
03-27 11:38:01	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xe006a5…
03-27 11:37:53	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	SELL	216	76¢	$164	0x2b853d…
03-27 11:37:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0xe26235…
03-27 11:37:11	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0xd45e4e…
03-27 11:36:17	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x045621…
03-27 11:36:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0xba1889…
03-27 11:35:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x83c110…
03-27 11:35:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x6f2674…
03-27 11:33:17	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x80770e…
03-27 11:33:15	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x5c0948…
03-27 11:32:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x3d9100…
03-27 11:32:11	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x62d04c…
03-27 11:31:55	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	208	75¢	$156	0x6abe73…
03-27 11:31:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0xfdedf2…
03-27 11:31:11	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0xd23669…
03-27 11:30:39	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0xe37f2a…
03-27 11:30:17	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x697aec…
03-27 11:30:15	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x22aff9…
03-27 11:29:35	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0xbd0785…
03-27 11:29:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x001e04…
03-27 11:29:11	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x2047d7…
03-27 11:28:33	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x8b7aba…
03-27 11:28:31	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x1aa139…
03-27 11:28:07	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x1b611c…
03-27 11:28:05	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0xc07102…
03-27 11:26:37	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0xb49102…
03-27 11:26:01	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x73dff7…
03-27 11:25:19	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x1a0f5e…
03-26 13:03:41	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	1,976	88¢	$1,739	0xefd140…
03-26 13:01:55	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	23	88¢	$20	0x88a500…
03-26 13:01:21	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	2	88¢	$1	0xbbd50e…
03-26 13:00:57	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	200	88¢	$176	0xe51f70…
03-26 12:44:25	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	2,200	87¢	$1,914	0x799453…
03-24 12:28:35	Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	622	100¢	$621	0x2848d8…
03-24 12:21:45	Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9ea9d0…
03-24 12:21:45	Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x9c7ffa…
03-24 12:03:01	Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,001	100¢	$1,000	0xbdd711…
03-24 11:36:27	Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x59a05b…
03-24 11:36:05	Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	526	100¢	$526	0xcfb6e8…
03-23 13:13:01	Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	Yes	BUY	2,100	100¢	$2,098	0x4c5365…
03-21 17:43:31	lol blg jdg 2026 03 21	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	36	95¢	$34	0xf2e104…
03-16 08:27:31	lol blg fox1 2026 03 16	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xb0ebd9…
03-16 08:26:57	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	161	100¢	$160	0xd984e0…