Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$467

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

54.8%

Resolved

1,690

Trades

5,084

lifetime

Volume

$18.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 10-15 19:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 55 days

Categories

Other

84% 58% -$336

Sports

9% 55% -$97

Tech

3% — —

Politics

3% 0% -$32

Crypto

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (15) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes		+20	$4	18¢	$4	-$1	10-15 19:51
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No		+0	$2	38¢	$0	-$2	10-06 22:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	13	$887	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$13	10-01 18:33
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	11	$839	800	800	+0	Yes	-$11	10-06 09:06
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	12	$511	303	303	+0	Yes	+$2	10-04 05:48
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	9	$414	410	410	+0	open	—	10-13 15:20
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	7	$341	232	232	+0	open	—	10-15 18:28
ufc mov ler 2026 03 21	2	$330	195	195	+0	Movsar Evloev	+$60	03-21 23:41
Académico de Viseu FC vs. Vitória SC: O/U 2.5	2	$255	185	185	+0	Over	+$111	09-12 21:22
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	8	$233	264	264	+0	open	—	10-08 05:05
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	8	$223	323	323	+0	open	—	10-06 07:23
fl1 olm lil 2026 03 22 total 3pt5	5	$223	131	131	+0	Under	+$39	03-22 18:24
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	2	$221	156	156	+0	open	—	10-09 05:13
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	2	$211	128	128	+0	open	—	10-05 00:43
rus csk mak 2026 03 21 csk	2	$209	136	136	+0	Yes	+$60	03-21 15:15
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	3	$199	156	156	+0	Yes	+$5	10-09 11:39
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	9	$170	244	244	+0	open	—	10-06 22:20
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	3	$169	139	139	+0	open	—	10-13 14:54
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	7	$166	110	110	+0	open	—	10-02 13:42
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?	4	$164	161	161	+0	open	—	10-15 18:28
spain snap election called by october 31	2	$158	211	211	+0	Yes	-$32	10-04 19:16
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	3	$155	215	215	+0	open	—	10-08 18:37
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	3	$151	100	100	+0	open	—	10-14 20:52
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	2	$148	94	94	+0	open	—	10-02 08:03
aus bri wel 2026 03 21 total 2pt5	6	$144	90	90	+0	Over	+$36	03-21 06:22
Racing Club Montevideo vs. CA Boston River: O/U 4.5	3	$141	106	106	+0	Over	+$69	09-12 17:53
j1100 kas jef 2026 03 22 total 2pt5	3	$141	100	100	+0	Over	+$59	03-22 10:00
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	2	$141	97	97	+0	open	—	10-13 17:50
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	3	$138	168	168	+0	open	—	10-06 14:05
es2 hue leo 2026 04 01 total 2pt5	1	$138	250	0	+250	Under	-$138	04-01 19:30
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	5	$137	114	114	+0	Yes	-$1	10-03 02:45
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. FC Seoul: O/U 2.5	3	$136	95	95	+0	Over	+$52	09-12 09:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-15 19:51:47	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	16	21¢	$3	0xb4109c…
10-15 19:49:58	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	4	21¢	$1	0x6d84e2…
10-15 18:28:37	Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?	Yes	SELL	61	28¢	$17	0xb6b591…
10-15 18:28:26	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	78¢	$2	0x003170…
10-14 20:52:13	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	67	75¢	$50	0x017316…
10-14 20:33:52	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	33	75¢	$25	0x32e8ee…
10-14 15:39:40	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0xf85ced…
10-14 01:47:16	Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	SELL	31	21¢	$6	0xf158a8…
10-13 22:18:36	Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	SELL	1	21¢	$0	0x64b16c…
10-13 22:18:36	Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	SELL	7	21¢	$2	0x27e27e…
10-13 22:18:36	Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	SELL	2	21¢	$0	0x17fede…
10-13 22:18:34	Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	SELL	2	21¢	$0	0x33ea9b…
10-13 22:18:33	Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	SELL	14	21¢	$3	0xa33ebd…
10-13 17:50:39	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	97	73¢	$71	0xe06c18…
10-13 17:30:04	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	97	72¢	$70	0x51e1e7…
10-13 15:54:19	Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	SELL	100	21¢	$21	0x5cfe54…
10-13 15:20:22	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	156	19¢	$30	0x85ea10…
10-13 15:10:37	Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	265	10¢	$26	0xdfb0e6…
10-13 14:54:05	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	No	SELL	77	57¢	$44	0xdb5d06…
10-13 14:54:04	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	No	SELL	62	57¢	$35	0x7be266…
10-13 12:57:20	Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	Yes	SELL	200	28¢	$56	0xd3a588…
10-12 19:59:21	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	No	SELL	76	51¢	$39	0xce90a2…
10-12 17:53:23	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	22	74¢	$16	0x8b368a…
10-12 17:52:47	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0xda8ebd…
10-12 17:52:45	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x2fe5e3…
10-12 11:50:26	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	No	BUY	76	51¢	$39	0xeda9b1…
10-11 15:04:13	Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	Yes	BUY	200	29¢	$58	0xbbb79a…
10-09 13:36:12	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0x3649e3…
10-09 13:16:31	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	136	76¢	$104	0xe76c55…
10-09 12:39:04	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	No	BUY	139	64¢	$89	0x47004b…
10-09 11:39:01	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	156	65¢	$102	0xe8ab16…
10-09 10:21:57	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0xc71476…
10-09 05:13:47	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	156	71¢	$111	0x479458…
10-08 18:37:24	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	95	37¢	$35	0x33c4a1…
10-08 18:33:44	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	120	37¢	$44	0xfe839d…
10-08 14:40:11	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	17	67¢	$11	0x38545c…
10-08 12:05:54	Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	265	12¢	$32	0x0a5c8c…
10-08 10:02:59	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	134	62¢	$84	0xcc7abc…
10-08 10:02:59	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	22	62¢	$13	0x05162b…
10-08 09:34:41	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	156	68¢	$106	0xf6c277…
10-08 05:05:55	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	72	23¢	$16	0x94be85…
10-08 00:12:20	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	215	35¢	$75	0xf21a2f…
10-07 21:47:49	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	156	70¢	$109	0xf3110e…
10-07 18:51:25	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	156	25¢	$39	0x223260…
10-07 18:51:21	Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	BUY	156	28¢	$44	0x90d210…
10-07 07:16:20	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	70	68¢	$48	0x897920…
10-07 07:16:18	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	104	68¢	$70	0x68b66a…
10-07 01:56:41	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	174	68¢	$118	0x2afbf3…
10-06 22:20:06	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	72	35¢	$25	0x81e690…
10-06 22:17:26	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	68¢	$20	0x969ed3…
10-06 22:09:42	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	68¢	$34	0xb1bb29…
10-06 21:45:26	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0x1007af…
10-06 21:45:23	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0xb97250…
10-06 19:23:21	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0xd9eeca…
10-06 19:23:21	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	38	33¢	$13	0xd9df79…
10-06 19:23:20	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	51	33¢	$17	0xe91f73…
10-06 19:23:20	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	4	33¢	$1	0xc7beeb…
10-06 19:23:20	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	27	33¢	$9	0x2723b6…
10-06 16:59:21	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	200	35¢	$70	0xbcb79b…
10-06 14:05:53	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	168	42¢	$71	0x518fb8…
10-06 11:11:01	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	44	37¢	$16	0x2b7259…
10-06 10:50:25	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	24¢	$2	0x2797ad…
10-06 10:22:54	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	24¢	$12	0xdf79ca…
10-06 10:07:18	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	24¢	$6	0x743c8a…
10-06 09:52:04	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	44	36¢	$16	0xe55aa6…
10-06 09:06:39	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Yes	SELL	172	44¢	$76	0xf85fae…
10-06 07:23:25	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	33	34¢	$11	0x5a4c00…
10-06 06:28:28	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	34¢	$34	0xa83fa6…
10-06 04:40:36	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	34¢	$3	0x0235e6…
10-06 02:06:10	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Yes	SELL	28	46¢	$13	0xbd94b9…
10-06 02:05:59	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Yes	BUY	200	46¢	$93	0x053cec…
10-06 01:06:56	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	47	34¢	$16	0xbcf472…
10-05 23:31:38	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	40¢	$15	0x929c6f…
10-05 23:31:38	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	131	40¢	$53	0x35a306…
10-05 20:20:17	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	57	23¢	$13	0x8aab2a…
10-05 19:32:25	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	40	6¢	$2	0xbebd6b…
10-05 16:40:26	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	33¢	$3	0x853a7e…
10-05 16:13:07	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	93	24¢	$22	0x106ed4…
10-05 16:10:11	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	24¢	$12	0xea902d…
10-05 15:20:16	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	156	24¢	$37	0xa2157b…
10-05 14:15:14	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	34¢	$68	0xa3d59c…
10-05 14:07:37	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Yes	SELL	200	51¢	$103	0x2b1b72…
10-05 14:01:34	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Yes	BUY	200	51¢	$102	0x7bf99e…
10-05 08:50:22	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Yes	SELL	160	50¢	$80	0xc2bf39…
10-05 04:57:56	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Yes	SELL	40	61¢	$25	0x71d5cb…
10-05 02:46:40	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Yes	BUY	175	57¢	$100	0xd52939…
10-05 02:46:40	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Yes	BUY	25	58¢	$15	0x864ac1…
10-05 01:49:16	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Yes	SELL	200	59¢	$118	0x64dbf6…
10-05 00:43:43	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	128	82¢	$105	0x9facd8…
10-05 00:32:41	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Yes	BUY	200	58¢	$115	0xfe2e5a…
10-04 22:10:50	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	65	76¢	$49	0x3eba0b…
10-04 22:10:35	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	76¢	$8	0xe8ba73…
10-04 19:28:50	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	108	74¢	$80	0x7909be…
10-04 19:16:53	spain snap election called by october 31	No	SELL	211	30¢	$63	0x956997…
10-04 19:00:04	spain snap election called by october 31	No	BUY	211	45¢	$95	0xafe23d…
10-04 16:47:56	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	123	37¢	$46	0x8ffde8…
10-04 16:24:50	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	23¢	$46	0xea7421…
10-04 14:10:08	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	128	83¢	$106	0xd71938…
10-04 13:34:59	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	76	79¢	$60	0x1665e6…
10-04 13:03:14	israel accuses iranproxies of plane stabbing incident by oct 31	Yes	SELL	106	8¢	$9	0xcb45fb…