Complicated-Crude — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$94.1K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

3,878

lifetime

Volume

$46.0M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11.9K

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-27

last 05-13 23:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Politics

60% 92% +$55,202

Other

40% 100% +$38,893

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-13).

Open positions Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	268	$8.20M	4,108,662	4,108,662	+0	No	+$8,217	04-28 02:09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	148	$8.16M	8,168,991	0	+8,168,991	Yes	+$10,169	05-09 19:32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	94	$6.34M	6,346,422	0	+6,346,422	Yes	+$6,346	05-09 19:43
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	546	$4.64M	4,644,851	0	+4,644,851	No	+$9,290	03-12 15:27
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	574	$3.95M	3,964,177	0	+3,964,177	Yes	+$15,886	04-06 22:02
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	352	$2.83M	2,836,092	0	+2,836,092	Yes	+$6,769	05-13 17:19
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	206	$2.39M	2,396,444	0	+2,396,444	No	+$7,933	04-29 18:25
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	66	$2.13M	2,132,713	0	+2,132,713	Yes	+$2,133	04-09 19:23
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	124	$2.02M	2,023,526	0	+2,023,526	No	+$3,047	05-13 18:34
netanyahu out by march 31 854	229	$1.29M	1,271,954	30,520	+1,241,434	No	+$12,347	04-01 04:35
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	178	$789.5K	790,414	0	+790,414	No	+$914	05-13 04:04
Trump out as President by April 30?	553	$762.7K	764,385	0	+764,385	No	+$1,662	04-28 14:30
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	149	$660.8K	664,706	0	+664,706	Yes	+$3,917	02-01 11:45
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	174	$575.5K	576,512	0	+576,512	Yes	+$963	05-13 23:04
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	7	$555.0K	555,555	0	+555,555	Yes	+$556	05-12 20:22
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	102	$544.4K	322,820	222,820	+100,000	Yes	+$267	04-06 08:56
will trump visit china by march 31	11	$74.3K	74,925	0	+74,925	No	+$620	03-30 01:49
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	40	$73.9K	77,777	0	+77,777	No	+$3,889	01-31 16:04
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	15	$26.8K	26,893	0	+26,893	No	+$108	04-26 15:03
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	29	$19.2K	11,789	11,789	+0	No	-$1,027	03-23 13:55
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	8	$10.4K	10,456	0	+10,456	Yes	+$73	01-27 17:18
will netanyahu visit nyc by march 31	5	$8.2K	8,185	0	+8,185	No	+$16	03-29 18:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-13 23:04:29	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x3b0976…
05-13 22:54:27	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0x22d196…
05-13 22:53:29	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1,131	100¢	$1,130	0x3c4ef2…
05-13 22:52:30	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1,591	100¢	$1,589	0xe8e99c…
05-13 22:48:09	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	11,783	100¢	$11,772	0x40b6f6…
05-13 22:46:36	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	7,683	100¢	$7,675	0x9ae8c2…
05-13 22:44:41	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1,923	100¢	$1,921	0x82f587…
05-13 22:43:08	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	3,530	100¢	$3,527	0x413a80…
05-13 21:30:25	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc66213…
05-13 21:05:26	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1,940	100¢	$1,938	0x4dce42…
05-13 20:52:04	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,995	0x63f6be…
05-13 20:25:07	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xceaa4d…
05-13 20:05:36	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xd2e8b3…
05-13 19:29:58	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcda660…
05-13 19:27:27	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb0652c…
05-13 19:08:16	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa8c4ab…
05-13 19:04:53	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x25741f…
05-13 18:59:31	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa7c2d3…
05-13 18:49:29	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc2c1b8…
05-13 18:40:46	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd41ef9…
05-13 18:40:05	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x13646e…
05-13 18:34:26	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	555,555	100¢	$554,999	0xab0966…
05-13 18:29:16	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb19e54…
05-13 18:23:17	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x614665…
05-13 18:18:23	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2bf2c8…
05-13 18:15:41	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xe37be7…
05-13 18:14:59	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xc85835…
05-13 18:09:56	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x38767d…
05-13 17:57:48	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf5384d…
05-13 17:50:01	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xfeacff…
05-13 17:19:48	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc8b89c…
05-13 17:19:46	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0xc6449d…
05-13 17:19:27	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x648147…
05-13 17:19:27	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x2a377b…
05-13 17:10:31	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x60932c…
05-13 17:00:29	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	3,000	100¢	$2,997	0xc4feb2…
05-13 16:59:42	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x41b44e…
05-13 16:57:46	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa1aac5…
05-13 16:56:47	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf778a2…
05-13 16:52:10	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xca3a01…
05-13 16:47:43	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc470ca…
05-13 16:46:48	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xb3d896…
05-13 16:43:20	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,998	0xe51d3b…
05-13 16:43:08	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	4,440	100¢	$4,436	0x6a9054…
05-13 16:38:44	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa2eda9…
05-13 16:38:03	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xfcd482…
05-13 16:33:58	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	9,950	100¢	$9,940	0xaabb83…
05-13 16:30:37	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,995	0x579670…
05-13 16:27:18	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd18059…
05-13 16:24:42	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x5c0bda…
05-13 16:11:45	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xe95ad2…
05-13 16:07:42	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xe3d6f3…
05-13 15:42:40	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	50,000	100¢	$49,950	0x5524ae…
05-13 15:41:34	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x94a562…
05-13 15:39:26	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbf960b…
05-13 15:38:28	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x67fd20…
05-13 15:31:37	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	2,200	100¢	$2,198	0xfdc9a2…
05-13 15:28:07	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,998	0xb7c914…
05-13 15:27:04	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xca868e…
05-13 15:26:52	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x082d51…
05-13 15:26:31	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,998	0x3e4b9e…
05-13 15:21:40	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,995	0x729f5e…
05-13 15:16:27	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xb3e201…
05-13 15:07:58	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x166c4b…
05-13 14:57:31	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	6,700	100¢	$6,693	0x3ff7a2…
05-13 14:49:18	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,990	0xf8c6e8…
05-13 14:40:48	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1,400	100¢	$1,399	0x6c22e6…
05-13 14:36:50	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x394d8c…
05-13 14:36:40	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xee83de…
05-13 14:35:16	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,995	0xcbd928…
05-13 14:34:11	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5,030	100¢	$5,025	0xef3579…
05-13 14:28:54	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,995	0xb0aea9…
05-13 14:21:26	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x378614…
05-13 14:17:32	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xda9211…
05-13 14:16:36	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xe7807f…
05-13 14:15:00	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x996c30…
05-13 14:13:02	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,990	0x592b95…
05-13 14:12:31	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,990	0x476536…
05-13 14:10:55	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	2,980	100¢	$2,977	0x3fce32…
05-13 14:08:31	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x187a3e…
05-13 13:57:30	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,990	0xf8b6b7…
05-13 13:39:16	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,995	0x243780…
05-13 13:29:52	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x841699…
05-13 13:27:11	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xe8bb73…
05-13 13:22:30	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x6390a8…
05-13 13:09:52	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbf1cc7…
05-13 13:09:27	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xfbd1d8…
05-13 13:07:00	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x860195…
05-13 12:58:12	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	493	100¢	$493	0x9d1b19…
05-13 12:58:10	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe53ba6…
05-13 12:58:08	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	201	100¢	$201	0xede3e1…
05-13 12:58:03	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x1d536c…
05-13 12:58:01	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x87422b…
05-13 12:58:01	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x4f02b7…
05-13 12:58:01	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x14029e…
05-13 12:58:00	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	5,114	100¢	$5,109	0x1d8e24…
05-13 12:56:50	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x4c9ac3…
05-13 12:49:20	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	10,230	100¢	$10,220	0x78a326…
05-13 12:43:46	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x1e5c61…
05-13 12:37:22	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xff49e1…