Complicated-Crude — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$16.5K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

3,380

lifetime

Volume

$42.5M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12.6K

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-27

last 05-13 17:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

65% 100% +$16,515

Other

35% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 503 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	268	$8.20M	4,108,662	4,108,662	+0	open	—	04-28 02:09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	148	$8.16M	8,168,991	0	+8,168,991	Yes	+$10,169	05-09 19:32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	94	$6.34M	6,346,422	0	+6,346,422	Yes	+$6,346	05-09 19:43
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	546	$4.64M	4,644,851	0	+4,644,851	open	—	03-12 15:27
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	574	$3.95M	3,964,177	0	+3,964,177	open	—	04-06 22:02
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	333	$2.72M	2,726,244	0	+2,726,244	open	—	05-13 17:19
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	203	$2.34M	2,350,444	0	+2,350,444	open	—	04-29 18:25
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	66	$2.13M	2,132,713	0	+2,132,713	open	—	04-09 19:23
netanyahu out by march 31 854	229	$1.29M	1,271,954	30,520	+1,241,434	open	—	04-01 04:35
Trump out as President by April 30?	553	$762.7K	764,385	0	+764,385	open	—	04-28 14:30
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	149	$660.8K	664,706	0	+664,706	open	—	02-01 11:45
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	7	$555.0K	555,555	0	+555,555	open	—	05-12 20:22
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	102	$544.4K	322,820	222,820	+100,000	open	—	04-06 08:56
will trump visit china by march 31	11	$74.3K	74,925	0	+74,925	open	—	03-30 01:49
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	40	$73.9K	77,777	0	+77,777	open	—	01-31 16:04
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	15	$26.8K	26,893	0	+26,893	open	—	04-26 15:03
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	29	$19.2K	11,789	11,789	+0	open	—	03-23 13:55
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	8	$10.4K	10,456	0	+10,456	open	—	01-27 17:18
will netanyahu visit nyc by march 31	5	$8.2K	8,185	0	+8,185	open	—	03-29 18:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-13 17:19:48	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc8b89c…
05-13 17:19:46	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0xc6449d…
05-13 17:19:27	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x648147…
05-13 17:19:27	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x2a377b…
05-13 17:10:31	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x60932c…
05-13 17:00:29	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	3,000	100¢	$2,997	0xc4feb2…
05-13 16:52:10	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xca3a01…
05-13 16:46:48	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xb3d896…
05-13 16:43:08	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	4,440	100¢	$4,436	0x6a9054…
05-13 16:33:58	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	9,950	100¢	$9,940	0xaabb83…
05-13 16:30:37	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,995	0x579670…
05-13 16:24:42	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x5c0bda…
05-13 16:11:45	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xe95ad2…
05-13 16:07:42	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xe3d6f3…
05-13 15:39:26	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbf960b…
05-13 15:31:37	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	2,200	100¢	$2,198	0xfdc9a2…
05-13 15:28:07	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,998	0xb7c914…
05-13 15:27:04	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xca868e…
05-13 15:26:52	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x082d51…
05-13 15:26:31	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,998	0x3e4b9e…
05-13 15:21:40	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,995	0x729f5e…
05-13 15:16:27	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xb3e201…
05-13 14:57:31	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	6,700	100¢	$6,693	0x3ff7a2…
05-13 14:49:18	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,990	0xf8c6e8…
05-13 14:36:50	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x394d8c…
05-13 14:35:16	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,995	0xcbd928…
05-13 14:34:11	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5,030	100¢	$5,025	0xef3579…
05-13 14:21:26	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x378614…
05-13 14:17:32	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xda9211…
05-13 14:16:36	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xe7807f…
05-13 14:15:00	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x996c30…
05-13 14:13:02	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,990	0x592b95…
05-13 14:12:31	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,990	0x476536…
05-13 14:10:55	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	2,980	100¢	$2,977	0x3fce32…
05-13 14:08:31	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x187a3e…
05-13 13:57:30	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,990	0xf8b6b7…
05-13 13:29:52	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x841699…
05-13 13:22:30	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x6390a8…
05-13 13:09:27	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xfbd1d8…
05-13 13:07:00	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x860195…
05-13 12:56:50	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x4c9ac3…
05-13 12:49:20	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	10,230	100¢	$10,220	0x78a326…
05-13 12:43:46	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x1e5c61…
05-13 12:37:22	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xff49e1…
05-13 12:30:22	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$500	0x55b179…
05-13 12:28:37	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x7dfc3f…
05-13 12:23:40	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,998	0xcaef8c…
05-13 12:23:38	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5,960	100¢	$5,954	0x427426…
05-13 12:19:05	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x5d963e…
05-13 12:15:16	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,995	0x14ac03…
05-13 12:13:34	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb71676…
05-13 12:10:31	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x11542a…
05-13 12:06:15	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	4,710	100¢	$4,705	0xddbdef…
05-13 11:58:26	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,998	0x790316…
05-13 11:57:34	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x0a9806…
05-13 11:54:56	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xb2c663…
05-13 11:52:08	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	9,801	100¢	$9,791	0xa4c5cd…
05-13 11:49:34	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,995	0x754423…
05-13 11:45:26	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc2ab8a…
05-13 11:45:01	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	3,000	100¢	$2,997	0xd3027c…
05-13 11:43:48	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	39,710	100¢	$39,670	0xe342e7…
05-13 11:43:06	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x2af46d…
05-13 11:41:49	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x72c7e7…
05-13 11:40:26	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,369	100¢	$1,367	0x6c4bdb…
05-13 10:09:05	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	488	100¢	$487	0x09b954…
05-13 10:08:55	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	40,000	100¢	$39,960	0xc2443c…
05-13 10:05:00	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x64953d…
05-13 09:58:20	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,998	0xa0cebf…
05-13 09:57:31	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbe40d0…
05-13 09:54:50	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	2,860	100¢	$2,857	0x05f25d…
05-13 09:52:19	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x5f2a61…
05-13 09:48:35	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xf6bc80…
05-13 09:48:33	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xff632e…
05-13 09:48:16	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x02c15c…
05-13 09:45:42	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xdc5295…
05-13 09:42:14	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x8c37b1…
05-13 09:41:46	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	9,510	100¢	$9,500	0x5d5565…
05-13 09:40:46	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	23,780	100¢	$23,756	0x59492e…
05-13 09:33:41	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x97ab7e…
05-13 09:33:27	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xb433d7…
05-13 09:32:59	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,029	100¢	$1,028	0x6fab1d…
05-13 09:32:57	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,008	100¢	$1,007	0x77e893…
05-13 09:32:38	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x373615…
05-13 09:32:34	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	22,330	100¢	$22,308	0x688c04…
05-13 09:29:25	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	161	100¢	$161	0xc3323b…
05-13 09:28:45	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xb679b9…
05-13 09:26:16	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,990	0xbbc568…
05-13 09:24:30	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x998761…
05-13 09:24:00	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	111,800	100¢	$111,688	0xb1afbc…
05-13 09:23:23	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xc41094…
05-13 09:21:59	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,680	100¢	$1,678	0xfb5517…
05-13 09:19:32	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x8c2198…
05-13 09:17:58	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x5bbcb9…
05-13 09:14:49	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xf0e3c0…
05-13 09:14:00	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x344bf2…
05-13 09:11:50	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	3,000	100¢	$2,997	0x4700c0…
05-13 09:10:09	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	50,000	100¢	$49,950	0x1b1c26…
05-13 09:08:18	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,998	0x933f61…
05-13 09:03:02	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xeff9f2…
05-13 08:59:51	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x323966…