Monstrous-Duckling — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$245

Unrealized P&L

-$14

Hit rate

91.4%

Resolved

139

Trades

511

lifetime

Volume

$45.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$90

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 09-18 11:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 60 days

Categories

Other

46% 86% +$503

Politics

37% 88% -$312

Crypto

11% 100% +$3

Sports

5% 100% +$50

Tech

1% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 25 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+61	$19	10¢	$6	-$14	07-09 13:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
netanyahu out by march 31 854	38	$5.8K	4,082	4,082	+0	No	+$4	03-28 13:39
trump out as president by march 31	11	$2.2K	1,128	1,128	+0	No	+$2	03-03 16:57
will t mobile tmus q2 total service revenues be above 19pt4b 20260703212654954	22	$1.7K	3,442	110	+3,332	No	+$141	07-05 05:26
will ethereum reach 4000 in february 2026	12	$1.7K	846	846	+0	No	+$1	02-15 15:51
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	2	$1.5K	780	780	+0	No	+$1	04-16 00:47
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	3	$1.5K	777	777	+0	No	+$1	04-15 09:01
Trump out as President by April 30?	8	$1.4K	697	697	+0	No	+$3	04-22 08:47
will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	7	$1.3K	631	631	+0	No	+$0	01-09 15:56
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	5	$1.1K	536	533	+3	No	+$0	02-13 05:40
will norway win the most medals in the 2026 winter olympics	4	$1.1K	532	532	+0	Yes	+$3	02-21 08:33
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	5	$1.1K	531	531	+0	Yes	+$1	02-12 09:59
will solana reach 200 in february 2026	3	$956	746	214	+532	No	+$1	02-16 13:12
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	8	$844	437	437	+0	No	+$1	01-20 08:29
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	4	$837	420	420	+0	No	+$0	01-13 03:43
will bnb reach 1200 in february	4	$677	339	339	+0	No	+$0	02-24 13:07
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	4	$641	428	214	+214	Yes	+$1	02-03 14:41
will wti reach 95 by june 29 2026	6	$617	1,852	618	+1,234	No	$0	07-02 12:07
will trump say jd or vance during fox interview on wednesday	3	$546	547	0	+547	No	+$1	04-16 07:57
will the dhs shutdown last 14 days or more	4	$535	536	0	+536	Yes	+$1	02-26 18:37
will the us next strike iran on february 22 2026 et	1	$534	535	0	+535	No	+$1	02-24 14:07
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	1	$532	0	550	-550	No	-$18	02-19 04:26
us x iran meeting by february 13 2026 452	3	$527	529	0	+529	No	+$2	02-14 04:30
will trump say america or us 7 times during dinner with dutch royals	5	$516	325	200	+125	No	+$9	04-14 05:13
Will Enterprise Esports Win Emea Challengers Stage	10	$510	924	100	+824	Yes	+$114	07-06 13:13
will gleans valuation hit low 5pt5b by july 31 20260630205002629	7	$486	1,059	484	+575	No	+$46	07-01 04:00
Will Adidas be the brand of gloves worn by the Golden Glove winner at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	9	$472	997	36	+961	No	+$28	07-06 03:08
Will LOS Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2	9	$443	968	53	+915	Yes	+$54	07-05 11:56
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	2	$427	214	214	+0	No	+$0	02-03 05:15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	2	$425	215	215	+0	No	+$1	04-12 16:48
highest temperature in shanghai on april 8 2026 18c	2	$423	212	212	+1	Yes	+$1	04-08 14:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-18 11:45:36	Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xaef6e9…
09-18 11:45:27	Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0xf76407…
09-13 04:49:27	Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.0% and 0.2%?	Yes	SELL	27	30¢	$8	0x123216…
09-12 05:37:51	will the fix score at least 25 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	No	SELL	9	75¢	$7	0xf6ceee…
09-12 05:37:42	will the fix score at least 25 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xea587a…
09-12 05:33:37	Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.0% and 0.2%?	Yes	SELL	135	37¢	$50	0xbb2848…
09-12 05:16:21	Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.0% and 0.2%?	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x1801d3…
09-12 05:16:06	Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.0% and 0.2%?	Yes	SELL	170	45¢	$76	0x1c6a4f…
09-12 04:53:39	will the fix score at least 15 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	Yes	SELL	11	84¢	$9	0xcc3ef9…
09-12 04:39:55	Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.0% and 0.2%?	Yes	SELL	66	45¢	$30	0xa5b16d…
09-12 04:37:03	Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.0% and 0.2%?	Yes	BUY	14	44¢	$6	0x3ee1ad…
09-12 04:36:40	Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.0% and 0.2%?	Yes	BUY	51	36¢	$18	0x5cdcb3…
09-12 04:35:51	Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.0% and 0.2%?	Yes	BUY	313	29¢	$89	0x2931ad…
09-12 04:27:33	Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	28¢	$19	0x1c3b3c…
09-12 04:27:07	Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	62¢	$37	0x7b5dc7…
09-12 04:27:07	Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x6025b5…
09-12 03:51:34	Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0xb3b11e…
09-12 03:51:18	Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	43¢	$26	0x0362fc…
09-12 03:50:52	Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	37¢	$22	0xe6637e…
09-12 02:43:45	will the fix score at least 25 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	No	SELL	25	78¢	$20	0x9b36bb…
09-12 02:38:46	will the fix score at least 25 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	No	SELL	45	80¢	$36	0x35b828…
09-12 02:34:48	will the fix score at least 15 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	Yes	SELL	25	73¢	$18	0xbaec3a…
09-12 02:34:06	will the fix score at least 15 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	Yes	SELL	25	79¢	$20	0xbab304…
09-12 02:33:48	will the fix score at least 25 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	No	BUY	25	62¢	$16	0xd042d3…
09-12 02:33:09	will the fix score at least 15 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	Yes	SELL	25	80¢	$20	0x54a3d8…
09-12 02:16:13	will the fix score at least 25 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	No	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x6b40d2…
09-12 02:16:12	will the fix score at least 25 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	No	BUY	40	53¢	$21	0xb34288…
09-12 02:15:54	will the fix score at least 15 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	Yes	BUY	86	54¢	$46	0x953868…
07-26 09:05:13	will ng reach 4 60 in july 2026	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x902c21…
07-24 03:23:42	will xagusd dip to 49 by july 20 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x67ecc2…
07-21 07:27:09	will ng reach 4 60 in july 2026	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xd6d1d6…
07-19 08:54:07	will ng reach 4 20 in july 2026	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x8c9e31…
07-16 05:15:43	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x96a970…
07-09 13:44:02	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x9629b8…
07-08 12:56:59	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0x9286c7…
07-06 13:13:46	Will Enterprise Esports Win Emea Challengers Stage	Yes	BUY	24	93¢	$23	0x29f56f…
07-06 11:30:25	Will Enterprise Esports Win Emea Challengers Stage	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x499902…
07-06 09:19:29	Will Enterprise Esports Win Emea Challengers Stage	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x3fb534…
07-06 09:16:28	Will Enterprise Esports Win Emea Challengers Stage	Yes	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xbea133…
07-06 09:15:47	Will Enterprise Esports Win Emea Challengers Stage	Yes	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0x28ab99…
07-06 09:05:34	Will Uhlsport be the brand of gloves worn by the Golden Glove winner at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	8	61¢	$5	0x8fb76d…
07-06 09:05:25	Will Uhlsport be the brand of gloves worn by the Golden Glove winner at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x168886…
07-06 03:08:04	Will Adidas be the brand of gloves worn by the Golden Glove winner at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	36	27¢	$10	0x3080d4…
07-06 03:02:26	Will Adidas be the brand of gloves worn by the Golden Glove winner at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	179	64¢	$115	0xc2e4c3…
07-06 02:55:53	Will Adidas be the brand of gloves worn by the Golden Glove winner at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	302	57¢	$171	0x47440d…
07-06 02:02:23	Will Adidas be the brand of gloves worn by the Golden Glove winner at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xc52dce…
07-06 02:02:23	Will Adidas be the brand of gloves worn by the Golden Glove winner at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	55	40¢	$22	0x817e03…
07-06 02:02:23	Will Adidas be the brand of gloves worn by the Golden Glove winner at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x31078f…
07-06 02:02:23	Will Uhlsport be the brand of gloves worn by the Golden Glove winner at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	231	36¢	$83	0x044589…
07-06 01:58:44	Will Adidas be the brand of gloves worn by the Golden Glove winner at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	401	32¢	$128	0x4fdc5f…
07-06 01:51:41	Will Uhlsport be the brand of gloves worn by the Golden Glove winner at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	235	58¢	$136	0x39785f…
07-05 11:56:47	Will LOS Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2	Yes	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0xb20651…
07-05 11:56:38	Will LOS Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xeacbd1…
07-05 11:54:31	Will LOS Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2	No	BUY	190	74¢	$140	0x5f073a…
07-05 11:16:47	Will LOS Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x07c10c…
07-05 11:11:37	Will LOS Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2	No	BUY	241	65¢	$157	0x53a247…
07-05 10:05:50	Will FURIA Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2	Yes	SELL	137	43¢	$59	0x4becd7…
07-05 10:05:17	Will FURIA Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2	Yes	SELL	347	44¢	$154	0x309aad…
07-05 09:34:25	Will FURIA Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2	Yes	BUY	484	38¢	$184	0x1c4bc2…
07-05 09:15:52	Will LOS Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xbce23c…
07-05 09:15:11	Will LOS Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2	Yes	SELL	43	41¢	$18	0x6a3d83…
07-05 09:14:43	Will LOS Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2	No	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0xba9be5…
07-05 09:14:40	Will LOS Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2	Yes	BUY	486	22¢	$104	0xf458e7…
07-05 05:26:59	will t mobile tmus q2 total service revenues be above 19pt4b 20260703212654954	No	SELL	110	90¢	$98	0x6d0875…
07-05 05:25:50	will t mobile tmus q2 total service revenues be above 19pt4b 20260703212654954	No	BUY	168	89¢	$150	0x843f6f…
07-05 05:25:49	will t mobile tmus q2 total service revenues be above 19pt4b 20260703212654954	No	BUY	532	88¢	$470	0xdd5153…
07-05 04:27:04	will t mobile tmus q2 total service revenues be above 19pt4b 20260703212654954	Yes	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0x56673c…
07-05 04:22:23	will t mobile tmus q2 total service revenues be above 19pt4b 20260703212654954	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x920cd1…
07-05 04:18:22	will t mobile tmus q2 total service revenues be above 19pt4b 20260703212654954	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xc04722…
07-05 04:18:22	will t mobile tmus q2 total service revenues be above 19pt4b 20260703212654954	Yes	BUY	40	15¢	$6	0xbb2c02…
07-05 04:18:22	will t mobile tmus q2 total service revenues be above 19pt4b 20260703212654954	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xab6415…
07-05 04:18:22	will t mobile tmus q2 total service revenues be above 19pt4b 20260703212654954	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x62e31b…
07-05 04:18:22	will t mobile tmus q2 total service revenues be above 19pt4b 20260703212654954	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x2faebf…
07-05 04:18:22	will t mobile tmus q2 total service revenues be above 19pt4b 20260703212654954	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x21a619…
07-05 04:18:22	will t mobile tmus q2 total service revenues be above 19pt4b 20260703212654954	Yes	BUY	40	15¢	$6	0x086cc0…
07-05 04:18:20	will t mobile tmus q2 total service revenues be above 19pt4b 20260703212654954	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xaf800f…
07-05 04:18:20	will t mobile tmus q2 total service revenues be above 19pt4b 20260703212654954	Yes	BUY	40	15¢	$6	0x72d31c…
07-05 04:18:19	will t mobile tmus q2 total service revenues be above 19pt4b 20260703212654954	No	BUY	130	83¢	$108	0x9fd505…
07-05 04:18:19	will t mobile tmus q2 total service revenues be above 19pt4b 20260703212654954	No	BUY	487	82¢	$399	0x52ce30…
07-05 03:56:19	Will Enterprise Esports Win Emea Challengers Stage	No	BUY	250	52¢	$129	0x1b7c0f…
07-05 02:54:14	will t mobile tmus q2 total service revenues be above 19pt4b 20260703212654954	No	BUY	267	73¢	$195	0x76eeb8…
07-05 02:21:47	Will Enterprise Esports Win Emea Challengers Stage	No	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x495f87…
07-05 01:59:11	will t mobile tmus q2 total service revenues be above 19pt4b 20260703212654954	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x03615c…
07-05 01:57:31	will t mobile tmus q2 total service revenues be above 19pt4b 20260703212654954	Yes	BUY	2	18¢	$0	0xd185bf…
07-05 01:57:25	will t mobile tmus q2 total service revenues be above 19pt4b 20260703212654954	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0x791a07…
07-05 01:57:22	will t mobile tmus q2 total service revenues be above 19pt4b 20260703212654954	No	BUY	192	78¢	$150	0xe87ceb…
07-05 01:56:26	Will Enterprise Esports Win Emea Challengers Stage	No	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xdb4be0…
07-05 01:54:01	will t mobile tmus q2 total service revenues be above 19pt4b 20260703212654954	Yes	BUY	1,334	7¢	$98	0x861768…
07-05 01:24:58	Will Enterprise Esports Win Emea Challengers Stage	No	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x07d346…
07-05 01:24:04	Will Enterprise Esports Win Emea Challengers Stage	Yes	BUY	400	21¢	$84	0x8d44ec…
07-03 21:48:41	Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	78	99¢	$77	0x257212…
07-03 11:59:11	Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x2ae919…
07-03 11:57:55	Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xe6a1d0…
07-02 14:51:38	Will Trump say "Hundred" or "Thousand" 10+ times during remarks at the Burning Hills Amphitheater?	No	BUY	2,151	0¢	$2	0xcd5015…
07-02 14:44:26	will trump say hundred or thousand 10 times during remarks at the burning hills amphitheater 20260701154547081	No	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xe0a78a…
07-02 14:24:28	will trump say hundred or thousand 10 times during remarks at the burning hills amphitheater 20260701154547081	No	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xaec32d…
07-02 14:23:04	will trump say hundred or thousand 10 times during remarks at the burning hills amphitheater 20260701154547081	No	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x45533e…
07-02 13:52:22	will trump say hundred or thousand 10 times during remarks at the burning hills amphitheater 20260701154547081	No	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x314612…
07-02 13:52:22	will trump say hundred or thousand 10 times during remarks at the burning hills amphitheater 20260701154547081	No	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x2cb5a3…
07-02 13:42:26	will trump say hundred or thousand 10 times during remarks at the burning hills amphitheater 20260701154547081	No	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xec0e1e…