Immense-Hacienda — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.10K

Unrealized P&L

+$23

Hit rate

70.4%

Resolved

1,173

Trades

2,085

lifetime

Volume

$35.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

$1.13K

6 positions

First seen

2026-03-18

last 10-28 16:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 201 days

Categories

Other

91% 45% +$2,157

Politics

6% 52% -$13

Sports

2% 41% -$23

Tech

1% 20% -$16

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 70 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+543	$500	96¢	$519	+$19	10-27 04:25
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	+517	$500	99¢	$512	+$12	10-27 04:25
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	+68	$50	72¢	$49	-$1	10-28 02:44
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+94	$50	50¢	$48	-$2	10-28 16:39
russia military action against eu country by december 31 2026	Yes	+50	$5	7¢	$4	-$1	09-19 02:25
Will Monaco win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?	Yes	+57	$5	4¢	$2	-$3	09-04 21:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or below on September 22?	3	$936	567	567	+0	No	-$64	09-22 00:25
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	1	$500	543	0	+543	open	—	10-27 04:25
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	1	$500	517	0	+517	open	—	10-27 04:25
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 22?	8	$452	273	273	+0	Yes	+$12	10-22 06:47
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 1?	3	$440	240	240	+0	Yes	+$40	10-01 13:35
highest temperature in tokyo on april 16 2026 21c	2	$414	215	214	+1	Yes	+$15	04-16 12:03
highest temperature in wellington on april 18 2026 18c	3	$397	229	228	+1	Yes	-$2	04-17 22:38
will spacex starship flight test 14 launch by august 31	4	$314	167	167	+0	No	+$14	08-21 17:14
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9?	4	$253	212	212	+0	Yes	+$53	08-09 00:24
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 16?	2	$225	125	125	+0	Yes	+$25	09-16 11:01
highest temperature in nyc on april 16 2026 84 85f	3	$210	111	110	+1	No	+$11	04-16 18:05
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or below on July 4?	6	$207	113	113	+0	Yes	+$7	07-04 23:08
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	10	$165	455	92	+363	No	-$65	10-25 23:18
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17?	4	$156	152	152	+0	Yes	+$56	06-17 02:03
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 25?	4	$146	104	102	+2	Yes	+$28	04-24 23:14
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 25?	3	$141	105	102	+3	No	+$41	04-25 02:01
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 15?	3	$138	88	88	+0	Yes	+$37	05-15 09:47
highest temperature in toronto on march 27 2026 3corhigher	5	$125	85	85	+0	No	+$25	03-27 09:42
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on May 2?	5	$124	97	97	+0	Yes	+$14	05-02 05:04
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on October 25?	2	$119	103	103	+0	Yes	+$79	10-25 17:20
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on September 22?	5	$117	97	97	+0	Yes	+$76	09-22 19:51
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 14?	2	$116	87	87	+0	Yes	+$56	07-14 09:00
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on September 23?	2	$116	75	75	+0	No	+$16	09-23 18:30
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on July 11?	2	$116	110	110	+0	Yes	+$76	07-11 08:27
Will Joao Azevêdo win the most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?	2	$115	68	68	+0	Yes	+$15	08-22 18:29
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on October 19?	3	$114	74	74	+0	No	+$34	10-19 11:48
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23?	5	$114	108	108	+0	Yes	+$14	06-23 12:04
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on October 4?	2	$113	118	118	+0	No	+$103	10-04 22:12
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 26?	10	$112	66	66	+0	No	+$13	10-26 14:26
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7?	4	$112	78	78	+0	Yes	+$33	06-07 05:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 16:39:07	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0x4c2917…
10-28 02:44:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0x925e06…
10-27 21:06:39	Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by October 31?	No	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0x5cc32f…
10-27 12:10:27	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	39	38¢	$15	0xe863d6…
10-27 04:25:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	543	92¢	$500	0x891ed8…
10-27 04:25:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	517	97¢	$500	0x2fa618…
10-26 22:29:51	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	42	15¢	$6	0xb60fe2…
10-26 20:23:54	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xfaa32c…
10-26 20:09:38	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0xd62d91…
10-26 17:47:38	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x066c42…
10-26 17:26:59	Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31?	No	BUY	113	18¢	$20	0x1a543b…
10-26 17:23:57	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	70	3¢	$2	0x1b3232…
10-26 17:21:44	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	56	96¢	$53	0x6ed36f…
10-26 15:28:17	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on October 26?	No	SELL	31	90¢	$27	0x3d3bf9…
10-26 14:58:35	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on October 26?	No	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0x7c9d5e…
10-26 14:26:06	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 26?	No	SELL	3	95¢	$2	0x7d4180…
10-26 13:43:14	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 26?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x132f75…
10-26 13:10:35	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 26?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x62d56f…
10-26 12:02:41	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 26?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x3d26c7…
10-26 12:02:38	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 26?	No	SELL	48	95¢	$45	0x9d25d6…
10-26 11:50:38	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	70	14¢	$10	0x3dd721…
10-26 11:27:57	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 26?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x6b9b2d…
10-26 11:09:29	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 26?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x37ac5c…
10-26 11:02:12	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 26?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x1ad83c…
10-26 11:00:50	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 26?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x1b27c8…
10-26 09:15:36	Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31?	No	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x549c42…
10-25 23:18:02	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x151d44…
10-25 23:13:59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	75	13¢	$10	0x1712fa…
10-25 22:56:23	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x2e5927…
10-25 22:55:51	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xeb5acb…
10-25 22:10:47	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	60	34¢	$20	0xc4775f…
10-25 21:46:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0xcfdd12…
10-25 19:40:35	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	56	36¢	$20	0x3148fb…
10-25 19:40:23	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xe10837…
10-25 19:39:30	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	46	11¢	$5	0x3d0911…
10-25 19:39:11	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on October 26?	No	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0xf7e26e…
10-25 17:20:08	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on October 25?	Yes	SELL	103	96¢	$99	0xc360a9…
10-25 16:10:06	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 26?	No	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0x43810d…
10-25 16:07:03	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x6db71a…
10-25 13:43:17	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xda2e45…
10-25 13:25:08	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 25?	No	SELL	43	91¢	$39	0xd1960e…
10-25 12:22:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x4f0a00…
10-25 03:16:02	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	103	19¢	$20	0xe45ef9…
10-25 03:15:50	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	159	6¢	$10	0xfb1273…
10-25 03:15:26	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	244	1¢	$2	0x795633…
10-25 03:15:14	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x238ee8…
10-25 03:14:50	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	52	0¢	$0	0x88f99c…
10-25 02:20:15	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on October 25?	Yes	SELL	100	23¢	$23	0xa18aff…
10-25 01:01:26	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on October 25?	Yes	SELL	115	4¢	$5	0xc3e799…
10-25 01:00:11	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	115	9¢	$10	0x208d3c…
10-25 00:59:56	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x37cbb7…
10-25 00:53:00	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 25?	No	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x73b989…
10-25 00:51:08	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 25?	No	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x030342…
10-24 16:52:33	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x02db96…
10-24 16:52:17	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C or below on October 25?	Yes	BUY	104	5¢	$5	0x90b1bc…
10-24 04:11:17	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 24?	Yes	SELL	36	93¢	$34	0xfbef4e…
10-23 23:28:08	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 25?	No	BUY	43	47¢	$20	0x6c95ee…
10-23 22:05:29	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x98c6d8…
10-23 16:40:47	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	67	30¢	$20	0x962567…
10-23 16:37:29	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	217	2¢	$5	0xea15d0…
10-23 16:33:51	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on October 24?	No	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0xa2e9ab…
10-23 14:09:24	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	108	9¢	$10	0x914238…
10-23 14:09:08	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	192	3¢	$5	0x3ea5b1…
10-23 14:07:38	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0xb06247…
10-23 02:41:12	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 23?	No	SELL	62	12¢	$7	0xa9467f…
10-22 23:54:30	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	81	12¢	$10	0xd684e6…
10-22 23:54:03	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 24?	No	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0xb75568…
10-22 23:45:44	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	81	25¢	$20	0xdf8e0e…
10-22 23:45:23	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on October 23?	No	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0xd14da8…
10-22 16:09:11	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	107	9¢	$10	0x8cf839…
10-22 16:08:56	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	543	2¢	$10	0x4e64fc…
10-22 06:47:38	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 22?	Yes	SELL	196	95¢	$186	0x005c19…
10-22 06:47:33	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 22?	Yes	SELL	30	95¢	$28	0x3e7ff0…
10-22 06:28:38	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 22?	Yes	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x4805c3…
10-22 06:27:10	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 22?	Yes	SELL	9	95¢	$9	0xd03527…
10-22 00:22:38	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	102	10¢	$10	0x105b93…
10-22 00:21:53	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 23?	No	BUY	62	65¢	$40	0x30f77c…
10-21 18:30:51	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x59faf2…
10-21 18:30:36	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x94dc84…
10-21 18:11:00	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 22?	No	SELL	36	20¢	$7	0x809eef…
10-21 15:20:20	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	72	21¢	$15	0xfca2d7…
10-21 13:07:18	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 22?	No	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0x480734…
10-21 12:45:06	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on October 21?	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x926754…
10-21 04:31:15	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	57	61¢	$35	0x463b31…
10-21 04:29:36	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 21?	Yes	SELL	67	89¢	$59	0x0bba84…
10-20 23:56:41	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	65	15¢	$10	0x473dcc…
10-20 23:56:29	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	137	4¢	$5	0x8b8ca0…
10-20 19:22:47	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on October 21?	No	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x544f04…
10-20 19:22:30	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on October 21?	No	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0x1477a0…
10-20 15:41:03	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	45	44¢	$20	0x6f911a…
10-20 15:40:17	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	57	35¢	$20	0x532659…
10-20 15:37:45	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0x15226e…
10-20 03:15:48	Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on October 20?	Yes	BUY	468	1¢	$5	0xc78bcd…
10-19 18:51:24	Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on October 20?	No	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0xd73815…
10-19 11:48:59	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on October 19?	Yes	SELL	57	100¢	$57	0x205ecc…
10-19 11:48:39	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on October 19?	No	SELL	74	100¢	$74	0x9c1554…
10-19 02:15:03	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	57	35¢	$20	0xaca8bd…
10-18 22:32:14	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?	Yes	BUY	35	60¢	$21	0x707e4e…
10-18 20:22:54	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	108	5¢	$5	0xfe9f6b…
10-18 13:55:59	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on October 19?	No	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x02304f…