Waterlogged-Principle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

186

lifetime

Volume

$36.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$194

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-16

last 05-27 03:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

92% 100% +$1

Sports

6% — —

Politics

1% — —

Other

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 94k on january 17	1	$3.0K	3,051	0	+3,051	open	—	01-17 15:14
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch?	2	$3.0K	3,019	0	+3,019	open	—	01-16 14:52
bitcoin above 98k on january 18	5	$2.3K	1,170	1,170	+0	open	—	01-18 13:43
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5	2	$2.0K	1,021	1,021	+0	open	—	05-27 03:02
bitcoin above 96k on january 20	5	$2.0K	1,985	0	+1,985	open	—	01-20 08:55
bitcoin above 96k on january 19	4	$1.9K	1,947	0	+1,947	open	—	01-19 08:16
bitcoin above 92k on january 18	2	$1.9K	1,880	0	+1,880	open	—	01-18 04:47
bitcoin above 92k on january 21	7	$1.6K	1,662	0	+1,662	open	—	01-21 04:32
will the price of bitcoin be less than 84000 on january 26	2	$994	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	01-26 11:13
bitcoin above 86k on january 22	1	$993	998	0	+998	open	—	01-22 10:02
bitcoin above 94k on january 23	12	$985	2,973	0	+2,973	open	—	01-23 03:31
bitcoin above 86k on january 25	1	$984	994	0	+994	open	—	01-25 02:37
will the price of bitcoin be between 94000 96000 on january 24	1	$980	984	0	+984	open	—	01-24 01:52
Will Solana dip to $75 on May 25?	1	$928	929	0	+929	open	—	05-26 03:23
btc updown 15m 1768661100	2	$910	971	0	+971	open	—	01-17 14:59
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 on May 26?	2	$510	511	0	+511	open	—	05-27 03:24
Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on May 26?	2	$510	511	0	+511	open	—	05-27 03:20
Bitcoin above 79,600 on May 25, 7AM ET?	1	$473	474	0	+474	open	—	05-25 10:34
bitcoin above 75600 on may 25 2026 7am et	1	$347	347	0	+347	open	—	05-25 10:33
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	3	$328	221	110	+111	open	—	04-23 00:57
btc updown 15m 1768658400	1	$300	312	0	+312	open	—	01-17 14:15
Bitcoin above 79,200 on May 25, 7AM ET?	1	$220	220	0	+220	open	—	05-25 10:34
will ethereum reach 2400 in march 2026	2	$208	104	104	+0	open	—	03-31 12:07
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$204	103	103	+0	open	—	03-29 14:28
bitcoin above 78400 on may 25 2026 12pm et	1	$164	164	0	+164	open	—	05-25 15:55
Bitcoin above 77,000 on May 25, 10AM ET?	1	$164	164	0	+164	open	—	05-25 13:58
bitcoin above 77200 on may 25 2026 12pm et	1	$164	164	0	+164	open	—	05-25 15:58
bitcoin above 76800 on may 25 2026 12pm et	1	$164	164	0	+164	open	—	05-25 15:54
bitcoin above 78000 on may 25 2026 12pm et	1	$164	164	0	+164	open	—	05-25 15:58
btc updown 15m 1768659300	1	$162	165	0	+165	open	—	01-17 14:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-27 03:24:46	Will Ethereum reach $2,300 on May 26?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x86809c…
05-27 03:23:59	Will Ethereum reach $2,300 on May 26?	No	BUY	510	100¢	$509	0x9876f2…
05-27 03:20:44	Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on May 26?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x4bb777…
05-27 03:20:22	Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on May 26?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x4913ca…
05-27 03:02:39	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5	Over	SELL	1,021	100¢	$1,020	0x4ae89f…
05-27 02:14:28	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5	Over	BUY	1,021	99¢	$1,012	0x8447d7…
05-26 23:46:57	São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	28	98¢	$28	0xeb60f6…
05-26 03:23:59	Will Solana reach $90 on May 25?	No	BUY	126	100¢	$126	0xb79e7e…
05-26 03:23:29	Will Solana dip to $75 on May 25?	No	BUY	929	100¢	$928	0x9fed93…
05-26 00:55:59	Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline	Knicks	BUY	59	99¢	$58	0x1f9120…
05-25 15:58:30	bitcoin above 78000 on may 25 2026 12pm et	No	BUY	164	100¢	$164	0x644698…
05-25 15:58:21	bitcoin above 77200 on may 25 2026 12pm et	Yes	BUY	164	100¢	$164	0xc317c5…
05-25 15:55:16	bitcoin above 78400 on may 25 2026 12pm et	No	BUY	164	100¢	$164	0xaf20e2…
05-25 15:54:58	bitcoin above 78800 on may 25 2026 12pm et	No	BUY	93	100¢	$93	0x465235…
05-25 15:54:46	bitcoin above 76800 on may 25 2026 12pm et	Yes	BUY	164	100¢	$164	0xedc235…
05-25 15:54:41	bitcoin above 76400 on may 25 2026 12pm et	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x47616f…
05-25 13:58:52	Bitcoin above 77,000 on May 25, 10AM ET?	Yes	BUY	164	100¢	$164	0x688e94…
05-25 13:58:22	bitcoin above 77800 on may 25 2026 10am et	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x8885b2…
05-25 13:58:11	bitcoin above 76600 on may 25 2026 10am et	Yes	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x79af82…
05-25 13:47:24	bitcoin above 76200 on may 25 2026 10am et	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xc2cb3b…
05-25 13:47:19	bitcoin above 78200 on may 25 2026 10am et	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x073922…
05-25 12:53:37	Bitcoin above 78,200 on May 25, 9AM ET?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x9f5543…
05-25 12:53:25	Bitcoin above 76,600 on May 25, 9AM ET?	Yes	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xc75bf8…
05-25 12:51:40	Bitcoin above 78,200 on May 25, 9AM ET?	No	BUY	91	100¢	$91	0x5c1674…
05-25 10:34:50	Bitcoin above 79,200 on May 25, 7AM ET?	No	BUY	220	100¢	$220	0x2dc23a…
05-25 10:34:24	Bitcoin above 79,600 on May 25, 7AM ET?	No	BUY	474	100¢	$473	0xd89376…
05-25 10:33:51	bitcoin above 75600 on may 25 2026 7am et	Yes	BUY	347	100¢	$347	0x3acb0d…
05-25 03:35:52	Will Solana reach $90 on May 24?	No	BUY	64	100¢	$64	0xb4e6ab…
05-25 03:35:29	Will XRP dip to $1.30 on May 24?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x1c944c…
05-25 03:35:13	Will XRP reach $1.40 on May 24?	No	BUY	145	100¢	$145	0x7d2408…
05-25 03:11:22	Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xe3fab5…
05-25 03:09:26	Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	38	100¢	$37	0xfd1a1c…
05-25 03:04:46	Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x5757d2…
05-25 01:58:28	Bitcoin above 76,400 on May 24, 10PM ET?	Yes	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x6bf468…
05-25 01:50:18	ethereum above 2140 on may 24 2026 10pm et	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xa2ec87…
05-25 01:50:01	Bitcoin above 78,400 on May 24, 10PM ET?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd85286…
05-25 01:49:54	bitcoin above 76000 on may 24 2026 10pm et	Yes	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xcba50b…
05-25 01:44:18	Bitcoin above 78,800 on May 24, 10PM ET?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x837b6f…
05-25 01:44:07	Bitcoin above 79,200 on May 24, 10PM ET?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9b32bc…
05-25 01:43:59	bitcoin above 75600 on may 24 2026 10pm et	Yes	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0xd0fa25…
05-25 01:18:26	Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 107.5	Under	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x1021c9…
05-13 11:45:17	Will XRP dip to $1.30 on May 13?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x6fb86b…
05-13 11:45:01	Will XRP reach $1.65 on May 13?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xc4a63b…
05-13 11:43:07	Will Solana dip to $75 on May 13?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xe861a5…
05-06 02:49:22	Ethereum above 2,310 on May 5, 11PM ET?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x9c956a…
04-23 00:57:34	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	111	99¢	$110	0xe8f901…
04-22 14:11:40	USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0x9eb69a…
04-22 14:10:48	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	110	99¢	$109	0x0a4bac…
04-21 02:16:16	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0x0a74bc…
04-16 06:35:08	Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	109	99¢	$108	0x09b024…
04-14 05:54:57	Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	108	99¢	$107	0x03e816…
04-13 15:24:51	will the price of xrp be between 1pt20 1pt30 on april 13	No	BUY	107	100¢	$107	0x34b649…
04-12 14:58:31	will ethereum reach 2600 april 6 12	No	BUY	107	100¢	$107	0x29f65a…
04-10 15:58:53	bitcoin above 72k on april 10	Yes	BUY	107	100¢	$106	0x0a6550…
04-07 14:42:23	ethereum above 1900 on april 7	Yes	BUY	106	100¢	$106	0xb43bad…
04-06 02:48:23	will bitcoin dip to 65k on april 5	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x901c30…
04-06 02:47:55	will bitcoin dip to 65k on april 5	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0xb3232d…
04-06 02:47:55	will bitcoin dip to 65k on april 5	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x84745a…
04-01 13:12:29	EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	57	99¢	$56	0x4850d8…
04-01 13:10:49	EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	49	99¢	$49	0x26966a…
03-31 12:07:41	will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	No	BUY	105	99¢	$104	0x1e0367…
03-31 12:07:07	will ethereum reach 2400 in march 2026	No	SELL	104	100¢	$104	0x0ab1ec…
03-30 12:47:06	will ethereum reach 2400 in march 2026	No	BUY	104	99¢	$103	0x117a40…
03-29 14:39:02	will bitcoin dip to 60k march 23 29	No	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0x19c08b…
03-29 14:28:24	will trump visit china by march 31	No	SELL	103	100¢	$103	0xe5f4e8…
03-18 01:59:09	will trump visit china by march 31	No	BUY	103	98¢	$101	0xac9b55…
03-17 13:09:17	ethereum above 2500 on march 17	No	BUY	101	100¢	$100	0xbe605d…
03-16 19:38:57	will bitcoin reach 81k on march 16	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x709df1…
03-15 11:31:03	will solana dip to 70 on march 15	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x100bcb…
03-13 01:00:35	will the price of bitcoin be less than 60000 on march 13	No	BUY	113	100¢	$113	0x8a9607…
03-11 11:59:23	will the price of bitcoin be less than 64000 on march 11	No	BUY	113	100¢	$112	0x07661b…
03-10 10:00:09	bitcoin above 76k on march 10	No	BUY	112	99¢	$111	0x73d96c…
03-09 10:42:15	will the price of bitcoin be between 60000 62000 on march 9	No	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0xe2cd8b…
03-08 08:03:17	will bitcoin dip to 56k march 2 8	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x684368…
03-07 06:00:03	will the price of ethereum be between 1500 1600 on march 7	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0xd1d468…
03-06 12:03:13	ethereum above 2300 on march 6	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0xadb1af…
03-05 10:55:39	bitcoin above 66k on march 5	Yes	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x8865b7…
03-04 09:05:27	ethereum above 1700 on march 4	Yes	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0xf0b4c5…
03-03 01:35:01	bitcoin above 54k on march 3	Yes	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x1eeb77…
03-02 12:19:09	will the price of bitcoin be between 58000 60000 on march 2	No	BUY	110	100¢	$109	0xb7583d…
03-02 03:28:09	will bitcoin dip to 62k february 23 march 1	No	BUY	109	100¢	$109	0x941db7…
03-01 13:41:07	ethereum above 1700 on march 1	Yes	BUY	109	100¢	$109	0xe23565…
02-28 14:17:37	ethereum above 2200 on february 28	No	BUY	109	100¢	$109	0x2ff1f3…
02-27 12:16:31	will the price of bitcoin be between 58000 60000 on february 27	No	BUY	109	100¢	$109	0x4d36b8…
02-26 14:35:54	ethereum above 1800 on february 26	Yes	BUY	109	100¢	$109	0xc037ee…
02-25 13:33:10	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on february 25	No	BUY	109	100¢	$109	0x52cc88…
02-24 15:10:46	bitcoin above 58k on february 24	Yes	BUY	109	100¢	$108	0x985641…
02-23 07:07:46	bitcoin above 58k on february 23	Yes	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0x73f459…
02-22 01:43:36	will the price of ethereum be less than 1600 on february 22	No	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0xd70879…
02-19 15:03:28	ethereum above 1700 on february 19	Yes	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0xc2b100…
02-18 03:10:48	will the price of bitcoin be between 74000 76000 on february 18	No	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0x77e2db…
02-17 14:37:21	bitcoin above 62k on february 17	Yes	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0x619a45…
02-16 12:07:07	will the price of bitcoin be less than 62000 on february 16	No	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0x0603c7…
02-15 10:45:25	ethereum above 2500 on february 15	No	BUY	108	100¢	$107	0xaccd95…
02-14 13:26:19	ethereum above 2400 on february 14	No	BUY	107	100¢	$107	0x8db428…
02-13 11:49:01	bitcoin above 60k on february 13	Yes	BUY	107	100¢	$107	0x77590c…
02-12 11:43:51	bitcoin above 60k on february 12	Yes	BUY	107	100¢	$107	0x4246a7…
02-10 13:54:19	bitcoin above 74k on february 10	No	BUY	107	100¢	$107	0x201298…
02-04 08:18:04	will the price of bitcoin be between 82000 84000 on february 4	No	BUY	107	100¢	$106	0x4de103…
02-03 07:56:42	will the price of bitcoin be between 86000 88000 on february 3	No	BUY	106	100¢	$106	0x169103…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	58	$7.58K	2,914	04-16 07:08
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	52	$7.33K	2,166	04-22 18:21
(anonymous) 0xe7d0…39aa	49	$9.15K	78	05-13 11:44
Crooked-Noir 0x4ee2…46e1	48	$141.9K	5,861	04-10 14:03
Reasonable-Mover 0x0f62…922e	48	$1.57K	49	05-26 15:36
(anonymous) 0x90bb…531f	47	$660	1,577	04-12 15:06
(anonymous) 0x25af…bcaf	46	$6.89K	1,250	03-27 08:21
Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81	46	$1.19K	370	03-26 17:36