Alarming-Probability — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$315

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

42.7%

Resolved

1,239

Trades

3,208

lifetime

Volume

$14.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 05-27 15:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 62 days

Categories

Crypto

46% 53% -$159

Politics

35% 33% -$81

Other

15% 34% -$73

Sports

4% 50% -$3

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-27).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will lus marques mendes win the 2026 portugal presidential election	114	$2.4K	2,804	2,675	+129	No	-$41	01-10 19:29
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	12	$626	346	446	-100	No	-$18	01-21 12:31
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	15	$588	344	344	+0	Yes	-$5	01-03 16:30
will the houston texans win super bowl 2026	4	$362	200	200	+0	No	+$3	01-18 21:03
elon musk of tweets january 13 january 20 520 539	10	$354	200	197	+3	Yes	+$2	01-18 16:57
will all of trumps greenland tariffs go into effect by feb 1	6	$334	210	210	+0	No	-$8	01-21 12:32
will joo cotrim figueiredo win the 2026 portugal presidential election 643	8	$326	200	200	+0	No	+$3	01-18 18:34
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	11	$291	157	188	-31	Yes	-$3	01-06 02:32
will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	11	$259	130	130	+0	No	+$0	01-07 02:56
will bitcoin reach 110k in february 2026	8	$193	97	97	+0	No	+$0	02-26 12:38
will israel strike gaza on january 21 2026	12	$183	100	100	+0	Yes	+$2	01-21 13:57
will the us conduct a cyberattack on iran by jan 31	2	$180	100	100	+0	No	-$4	01-18 20:17
elon musk of tweets january 13 january 20 540 559	4	$170	100	100	+0	No	-$2	01-18 15:15
elon musk of tweets january 13 january 20 580 599	5	$168	100	100	+0	No	+$1	01-17 00:54
will the new england patriots win super bowl 2026	4	$164	108	108	-0	No	-$6	01-19 15:03
Will the US strike Iran next?	2	$155	100	100	+0	No	-$17	01-13 05:47
will tsla dip to 405 in january	2	$145	100	100	+0	No	-$15	01-28 14:14
will bitcoin reach 115k in february 2026	4	$131	66	66	+0	No	+$0	02-23 15:21
will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	4	$130	65	65	+0	No	+$0	02-27 02:34
will israel strike lebanon on january 16 2026	5	$108	60	60	+0	No	+$2	01-19 10:12
odds of khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 over 50 by january 16	2	$89	50	50	+0	No	-$1	01-12 03:56
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 400 419	2	$86	50	50	+0	No	+$0	01-26 07:34
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 380 399	2	$85	50	50	+0	Yes	+$0	01-26 11:26
Will the US strike Yemen next?	5	$75	40	40	+0	No	+$0	01-11 19:10
Will the US strike Syria next?	3	$72	40	40	+0	No	-$1	01-12 03:56
will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	5	$70	40	40	+0	Yes	$0	01-21 22:34
russia strike on kyiv municipality by january 19	7	$67	40	40	+0	Yes	-$2	01-14 17:45
will bitcoin reach 120k in february 2026	2	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	02-15 06:05
will joo cotrim figueiredo win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	3	$49	30	30	+0	No	+$1	01-16 18:57
will trump and machado handshake last 610 seconds	6	$38	25	25	+0	No	+$0	01-15 00:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-27 15:10:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x50fb2c…
05-27 15:10:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	0	46¢	$0	0x4412e5…
05-27 15:10:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x04d938…
05-27 15:01:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x545a50…
05-27 15:01:05	XRP Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	0	46¢	$0	0xd9e525…
05-27 15:01:04	XRP Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	0	46¢	$0	0x4d96eb…
05-27 15:01:00	XRP Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x64e044…
05-27 15:00:55	Solana Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x11f756…
05-27 15:00:53	Solana Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	52¢	$1	0x1bb3eb…
05-27 15:00:46	XRP Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xec0d17…
05-27 14:45:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xdc4694…
05-27 14:30:10	BNB Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x1ab130…
05-27 14:30:09	BNB Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x7c4b55…
05-27 14:30:05	XRP Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x1383cc…
05-27 14:29:56	BNB Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x72d6ce…
05-27 14:17:01	Solana Up or Down - May 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xde6c79…
05-27 14:16:59	Solana Up or Down - May 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xa5d564…
05-27 14:16:56	BNB Up or Down - May 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	46¢	$0	0xe88b8a…
05-27 14:16:56	BNB Up or Down - May 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	0	46¢	$0	0x95caff…
05-27 14:16:56	BNB Up or Down - May 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x8c95af…
05-27 14:16:54	Solana Up or Down - May 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xeb112b…
05-27 14:16:45	BNB Up or Down - May 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x67d8ec…
05-27 14:16:40	BNB Up or Down - May 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xc72c06…
05-27 14:16:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xa06455…
05-27 14:16:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	46¢	$0	0x50da66…
05-27 14:16:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xd7f745…
05-27 14:16:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x480055…
05-15 18:25:31	BNB Up or Down - May 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x5fe6d8…
05-15 18:25:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x6cf2ef…
05-15 18:25:15	BNB Up or Down - May 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xd0ccbc…
05-15 18:25:15	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x9c6251…
05-15 16:51:41	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x74573d…
05-15 16:51:37	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0xa66541…
05-15 16:51:34	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0x7320db…
05-15 16:51:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xa87fcd…
05-15 16:51:11	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-05-15 16:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x913565…
05-15 16:51:11	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x0a547f…
05-15 16:49:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	SELL	4	32¢	$1	0x61aeff…
05-15 16:49:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	SELL	1	32¢	$0	0x2c946b…
05-15 16:48:51	BNB Up or Down - May 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	42¢	$0	0x7f791a…
05-15 16:48:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x8271e7…
05-15 16:48:48	BNB Up or Down - May 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x47b9e0…
05-15 16:48:46	BNB Up or Down - May 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xcacb60…
05-15 16:48:44	Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xd2659f…
05-15 16:48:41	Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x4d4978…
05-15 16:48:37	Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x0c64d1…
05-15 16:26:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xf7d3a5…
05-15 16:26:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x50286b…
05-15 16:26:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x744b9d…
05-15 16:20:49	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x0b834e…
05-15 16:20:48	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xa67693…
05-15 16:16:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x3b52e3…
05-15 16:16:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xc9a6c9…
05-15 16:16:06	BNB Up or Down - May 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x1f89f9…
05-15 16:15:52	BNB Up or Down - May 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0xe7697a…
05-15 16:15:50	BNB Up or Down - May 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x9ca5e0…
05-09 13:23:13	Solana Up or Down - May 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xd61ec0…
05-09 13:20:06	Solana Up or Down - May 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x3041d9…
05-09 13:19:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x24d124…
05-09 13:18:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xad3e20…
05-09 13:06:39	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xe4301c…
05-09 13:06:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x59908b…
05-09 13:06:18	BNB Up or Down - May 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xd0488e…
05-09 13:06:02	BNB Up or Down - May 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x1a4be3…
05-01 18:07:18	XRP Up or Down - May 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xc3d311…
05-01 18:07:16	Solana Up or Down - May 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x887cc9…
05-01 18:07:16	XRP Up or Down - May 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	0	49¢	$0	0x60e2c1…
05-01 17:19:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x1d796b…
05-01 17:18:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xd1ce35…
05-01 17:17:34	BNB Up or Down - May 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xf2466d…
05-01 17:17:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x4c50b7…
05-01 17:17:28	BNB Up or Down - May 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x522e58…
05-01 17:07:58	XRP Up or Down - May 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xa6dc54…
05-01 17:07:52	XRP Up or Down - May 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xb76fcb…
05-01 17:07:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xe86b72…
05-01 17:07:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xe6e9cc…
05-01 16:26:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xb8433e…
05-01 16:26:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xf85362…
05-01 15:55:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xc8962e…
05-01 15:55:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x82b6f9…
05-01 15:17:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xec8cbf…
05-01 14:32:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x1e84d5…
05-01 07:15:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x715a51…
04-26 17:18:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xd9ada2…
04-24 18:48:40	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x341ed6…
04-24 00:51:34	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 00:50 UTC	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xd3d182…
04-24 00:51:28	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 00:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xa6aa52…
04-24 00:51:18	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 00:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xa4855d…
04-24 00:51:06	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 00:50 UTC	Down	BUY	0	67¢	$0	0x10e384…
04-24 00:48:00	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 00:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	19¢	$0	0xd53797…
04-24 00:48:00	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 00:45 UTC	Down	BUY	4	19¢	$1	0x9f0b93…
04-24 00:48:00	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 00:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0x9bb196…
04-24 00:48:00	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 00:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0x0f75e3…
04-24 00:47:36	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 00:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0x385e22…
04-24 00:47:32	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 00:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0x708016…
04-24 00:47:20	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 00:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0x8e8fa1…
04-24 00:47:16	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 00:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	19¢	$0	0x320e2f…
04-24 00:43:44	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-24 00:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0x85b55a…
04-24 00:43:14	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-24 00:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x437335…
04-24 00:42:30	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-24 00:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xeb1449…