Partial-Waterfall — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$78

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

98.1%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$4.98K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$156

Open exposure

$209

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-07 05:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 23 days

Categories

Other

47% 93% +$25

Politics

26% 100% +$34

Crypto

19% 100% +$9

Tech

9% 100% +$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No		+113	$110	96¢	$108	-$2	10-07 05:55
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?	No		+101	$100	100¢	$101	+$1	10-07 05:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin reach 130k in january 2026	1	$378	380	0	+380	No	+$2	01-20 15:35
will threads be 1 free app in the us apple app store on january 9	1	$376	378	0	+378	No	+$2	01-05 12:14
will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	2	$269	159	114	+45	No	+$4	06-25 16:25
will khamenei leave iran by february 28 2026 713 559	1	$254	259	0	+259	No	+$5	02-09 05:18
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	1	$234	240	0	+240	No	+$6	04-12 04:51
Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	1	$233	237	0	+237	No	+$4	05-08 05:32
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	1	$230	241	0	+241	No	+$11	05-08 05:36
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	1	$230	236	0	+236	No	+$6	03-05 01:30
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	1	$230	232	0	+232	Yes	+$3	03-27 11:29
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	1	$225	227	0	+227	No	+$2	04-23 11:58
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase april 7 13	1	$220	223	0	+223	Yes	+$3	04-12 04:49
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase march 3 9	1	$211	213	0	+213	Yes	+$2	03-05 01:40
will silver si hit high 190 by end of february 182	1	$192	193	0	+193	No	+$1	02-09 05:17
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	1	$172	173	0	+173	No	+$1	06-15 15:35
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	1	$160	166	0	+166	Yes	+$6	06-15 15:33
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	1	$160	163	0	+163	No	+$3	07-17 06:15
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	1	$120	122	0	+122	No	+$2	05-25 05:28
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	1	$120	122	0	+122	No	+$2	05-25 05:30
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30?	1	$120	122	0	+122	No	+$2	09-16 11:29
will bitcoin dip to 50k june 22 28 2026	1	$112	113	0	+113	No	+$1	06-25 16:25
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	1	$110	113	0	+113	open	—	10-07 05:55
us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	1	$100	101	0	+101	No	+$1	08-02 06:54
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	1	$100	103	0	+103	No	+$3	08-02 06:54
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?	1	$100	101	0	+101	open	—	10-07 05:55
cs2 tl1 vit 2026 07 24	2	$91	56	56	+0	Liquid	-$9	07-24 16:32
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	1	$83	84	0	+84	No	+$1	09-16 11:29
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	1	$50	52	0	+52	Yes	+$2	01-05 12:12
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$41	53	0	+53	Yes	+$12	07-24 16:32
will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	07-17 06:15
bitcoin up or down on january 5	1	$16	17	0	+17	Up	+$1	01-05 12:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-07 05:55:44	Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x079e04…
10-07 05:55:18	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	113	97¢	$110	0x7fc9b7…
09-16 11:29:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	No	BUY	84	99¢	$83	0x5ab5e7…
09-16 11:29:28	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30?	No	BUY	122	98¢	$120	0xdce5c3…
08-02 06:54:32	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0xb0b3c2…
08-02 06:54:02	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x68e929…
07-24 16:32:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	53	78¢	$41	0xe3d4a9…
07-24 16:32:04	cs2 tl1 vit 2026 07 24	Vitality	SELL	56	73¢	$41	0xb4c795…
07-24 02:39:49	cs2 tl1 vit 2026 07 24	Vitality	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0x244a7e…
07-17 06:15:55	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	BUY	163	98¢	$160	0xe91757…
07-17 06:15:10	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x175565…
06-25 16:25:55	will bitcoin dip to 50k june 22 28 2026	No	BUY	113	99¢	$112	0xf7c5a7…
06-25 16:25:05	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	No	SELL	114	100¢	$114	0x6d9642…
06-15 15:35:01	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	173	99¢	$172	0x204aae…
06-15 15:33:33	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	166	96¢	$160	0x1049c9…
06-15 15:32:34	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	No	BUY	159	98¢	$155	0x6f90e3…
05-25 05:30:15	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	122	98¢	$120	0x8d9be3…
05-25 05:28:18	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	122	98¢	$120	0x935138…
05-08 05:36:10	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	241	95¢	$230	0x679264…
05-08 05:32:36	Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	237	98¢	$233	0x5ced23…
04-23 11:58:24	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	No	BUY	227	99¢	$225	0x33e449…
04-12 04:51:25	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	240	98¢	$234	0xf5a55a…
04-12 04:49:01	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase april 7 13	Yes	BUY	223	98¢	$220	0x47ff60…
03-27 11:29:27	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	232	99¢	$230	0x1e3132…
03-05 01:40:05	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase march 3 9	Yes	BUY	213	99¢	$211	0x2937af…
03-05 01:30:21	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	BUY	236	97¢	$230	0xa1070f…
02-09 05:18:05	will khamenei leave iran by february 28 2026 713 559	No	BUY	259	98¢	$254	0x80b2e4…
02-09 05:17:21	will silver si hit high 190 by end of february 182	No	BUY	193	99¢	$192	0xcfbe56…
01-20 15:35:44	will bitcoin reach 130k in january 2026	No	BUY	380	100¢	$378	0xfcda6b…
01-05 12:14:41	will threads be 1 free app in the us apple app store on january 9	No	BUY	378	100¢	$376	0xf3cbd9…
01-05 12:12:45	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	Yes	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0x230572…
01-05 12:12:25	bitcoin up or down on january 5	Up	BUY	17	95¢	$16	0x97e781…