Messy-Lecture — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

+$35

Unrealized P&L

+$14

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

181,108 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$80.8K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-21 06:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 259 days

Categories

Crypto

63% 34% +$2,507

Other

29% 28% +$2,079

Politics

6% 34% +$445

Sports

1% 32% -$87

Tech

0% 33% +$44

Pop-Culture

0% 60% +$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 1356 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	—	-411	-$1	0¢	$-1	+$1	09-28 04:08
Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	Yes		+5	-$2	0¢	$0	+$2	09-15 22:15
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes		+3	-$1	0¢	$0	+$1	09-16 12:29
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes		+4	$0	0¢	$0	+$0	09-04 08:17
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes		+3	$0	0¢	$0	+$0	09-04 11:11
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	—	+0	$0	0¢	$0	+$0	09-15 16:56
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes		+0	-$5	0¢	$0	+$5	06-26 14:27
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	—	+0	-$5	0¢	$0	+$5	07-31 10:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	19	$281	5,000	5,000	+0	No	+$271	05-14 12:08
bitcoin above 68k on february 12	9	$244	1,500	1,500	+0	No	-$175	02-12 16:08
will bitcoin reach 110k in march 2026	237	$209	80,000	64,368	+15,632	No	+$49	03-26 04:23
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	21	$190	5,000	5,000	+0	Yes	+$180	05-14 12:25
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	773	$181	59,999	59,999	+0	No	+$61	05-13 14:29
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	431	$180	59,999	59,999	+0	No	+$60	05-22 06:28
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	8	$167	5,000	647	+4,353	No	+$157	05-16 22:55
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	808	$164	59,999	59,999	+0	No	+$44	05-11 23:40
bitcoin above 72k on april 14	24	$160	20,000	20,000	+0	Yes	+$120	04-14 10:06
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	181	$159	79,999	78,402	+1,597	No	-$1	04-20 16:35
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	980	$157	59,999	59,999	+0	No	+$37	05-15 05:03
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	629	$156	77,970	77,970	+0	No	$0	04-22 14:04
will bitcoin dip to 20k in march 2026	179	$153	80,000	67,799	+12,200	No	-$7	04-01 07:37
will bitcoin dip to 25k in march 2026	971	$146	65,333	49,892	+15,441	No	+$15	03-27 14:12
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1,059	$143	59,998	41,406	+18,592	No	+$23	05-31 16:00
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?	370	$143	54,227	47,242	+6,985	No	+$34	04-27 18:09
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	400	$138	39,999	33,946	+6,053	No	+$58	06-30 13:56
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	673	$138	59,999	59,999	+0	No	+$18	05-04 17:58
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?	177	$132	38,000	35,301	+2,698	No	+$56	04-23 17:05
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	68	$124	5,000	5,000	+0	No	+$114	05-16 22:44
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	723	$120	59,999	59,999	+0	No	+$0	05-03 23:51
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	668	$120	59,999	59,999	+0	No	$0	05-03 23:50
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	709	$120	59,999	59,999	+0	No	+$0	05-03 23:47
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	450	$120	39,999	39,999	+0	No	+$40	06-01 02:55
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	5	$115	5,000	5,000	+0	No	+$105	05-14 12:04
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April?	663	$114	72,573	36,214	+36,359	No	-$31	04-27 18:08
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April?	636	$105	51,084	51,280	-196	No	+$3	04-28 13:36
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	387	$102	51,212	51,212	+0	No	$0	05-03 23:51
bitcoin above 64k on july 2 2026	65	$102	32,000	32,000	+0	No	+$38	07-02 15:23
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April?	87	$102	50,859	50,859	+0	No	$0	04-26 01:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 06:16:41	Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	213	0¢	$0	0xb98f08…
10-13 22:31:52	Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	109	0¢	$0	0xdbafc7…
10-01 11:05:32	Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	2,311	0¢	$2	0x5e2428…
10-01 04:49:32	Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x5b72f4…
10-01 01:55:51	Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	5,000	0¢	$5	0x5377ff…
10-01 01:17:00	Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	890	0¢	$1	0xf44775…
10-01 00:16:38	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	1,906	0¢	$2	0x975e57…
10-01 00:16:24	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	5,000	0¢	$5	0x101a0e…
10-01 00:15:27	Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	5,000	0¢	$5	0x59bbda…
10-01 00:15:17	Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	5,000	0¢	$5	0x7e1b50…
10-01 00:14:59	Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	5,000	0¢	$5	0x3107d9…
10-01 00:14:32	Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	5,000	0¢	$5	0x5f8173…
10-01 00:14:23	Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	5,000	0¢	$5	0x056c1d…
10-01 00:14:12	Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	4,110	0¢	$4	0x4c9fd8…
09-30 21:51:45	Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xa6d466…
09-30 10:25:30	Will Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xb2d847…
09-29 19:22:51	Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,370	0¢	$1	0x6fd84b…
09-29 19:21:54	Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	395	0¢	$0	0x2707c7…
09-29 04:20:50	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x216daf…
09-28 20:07:11	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	95	0¢	$0	0xf3875a…
09-28 16:10:56	Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	668	0¢	$1	0x35c999…
09-28 06:57:05	Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	110	0¢	$0	0x376517…
09-28 04:08:11	Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	340	0¢	$0	0x602cc8…
09-27 20:08:24	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xf52e7d…
09-27 19:46:48	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	91	0¢	$0	0x781415…
09-27 17:41:32	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x587c56…
09-27 17:29:38	Will Alexandru Rafila be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	36	0¢	$0	0x9b2040…
09-27 16:38:45	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x32f93a…
09-27 10:27:18	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0xc64821…
09-26 11:24:47	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	95	0¢	$0	0x60ecf5…
09-26 08:51:27	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	136	0¢	$0	0x00f6c6…
09-26 08:46:02	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	101	0¢	$0	0x1367a4…
09-26 00:14:35	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x345ec6…
09-25 07:29:54	Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0x405e25…
09-25 05:49:05	Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	87	0¢	$0	0xbed94d…
09-25 00:54:26	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	63	0¢	$0	0xfab20b…
09-24 07:37:47	Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	137	0¢	$0	0x379ae5…
09-24 00:41:13	Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	25	0¢	$0	0xeb9c41…
09-23 20:50:25	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0x9bafab…
09-23 20:50:23	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xa1b223…
09-23 20:50:20	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xe0e9a5…
09-23 20:50:19	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x5c3957…
09-23 20:50:17	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x790d9a…
09-23 20:50:16	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x653db7…
09-23 20:50:14	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x41a07a…
09-23 20:50:13	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xecde8c…
09-23 20:49:28	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xf8a6e0…
09-23 20:49:28	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0x9d2684…
09-23 20:47:28	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x52e096…
09-23 20:43:04	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	235	0¢	$0	0x81329d…
09-23 12:46:32	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x30bda8…
09-23 10:20:17	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xba9e50…
09-23 09:42:31	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,300	0¢	$3	0x5e9240…
09-23 09:42:16	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	54	0¢	$0	0x73f146…
09-23 04:09:56	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x6cfd7a…
09-23 04:09:49	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xcc8af0…
09-23 02:00:01	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$0	0x2b436d…
09-23 01:45:47	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	330	0¢	$0	0xcb8dd7…
09-23 01:39:58	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	400	0¢	$0	0x0aaa7e…
09-23 01:34:59	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0x87af18…
09-23 01:22:41	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0x3ffb18…
09-22 17:55:39	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	0¢	$0	0x4b46fe…
09-22 15:43:46	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0x34fb5f…
09-22 14:58:46	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xe0b324…
09-22 11:17:22	Will Cătălin Drulă be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	346	0¢	$1	0xb22bc9…
09-22 08:42:58	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x9f998d…
09-22 08:42:43	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x8cc708…
09-22 06:03:40	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Yes	SELL	231	0¢	$1	0xf5c010…
09-22 04:44:31	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xa3cc1b…
09-22 03:11:08	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x060648…
09-22 03:11:02	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x938a3c…
09-21 22:43:07	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x4e9c9f…
09-21 22:36:57	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x15a9b2…
09-21 22:36:49	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xbe7aeb…
09-21 21:29:10	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x106db0…
09-21 21:29:00	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x804717…
09-21 17:23:10	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x6711f1…
09-21 17:23:04	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xfa154c…
09-21 15:47:55	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x6132f2…
09-21 15:47:49	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x93290a…
09-21 12:22:14	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Yes	SELL	9	0¢	$0	0x4baf05…
09-21 11:31:42	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x4b59fd…
09-21 11:24:47	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x491534…
09-21 11:24:38	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xfebf94…
09-21 09:45:05	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x9ae18f…
09-21 09:32:47	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xa07c76…
09-21 09:32:39	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xa6fd44…
09-21 08:01:41	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x6406ac…
09-21 07:42:00	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xf5056d…
09-21 07:41:54	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xdd1eec…
09-21 06:52:15	Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0x4ad8a0…
09-21 06:04:15	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x005375…
09-21 06:04:05	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x5d9b78…
09-21 01:43:46	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x5d6233…
09-21 01:25:29	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xb2f6a5…
09-21 00:04:02	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x1a9fae…
09-20 23:37:31	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x26e983…
09-20 23:12:47	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x14f7d4…
09-20 23:12:32	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x38ec2d…
09-20 16:19:48	Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x22e840…