Thirsty-Blossom — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$59

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

217

lifetime

Volume

$18.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$86

Open exposure

$195

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-08 09:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

74% 100% +$59

Other

23% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Tech

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President by June 30?	No	+57	$56	99¢	$56	+$0	06-04 17:17
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	-50	$-49	98¢	$-49	+$0	06-07 17:03
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	-50	$-44	92¢	$-46	$-2	06-04 17:18
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30?	No	+44	$44	99¢	$44	+$0	06-04 17:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	29	$3.5K	4,455	4,455	+0	open	—	03-01 01:37
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	14	$1.2K	672	672	+0	open	—	02-06 13:04
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	7	$914	1,000	1,100	-100	open	—	03-01 01:36
nothing ever happens khamenei	5	$867	522	522	+0	open	—	02-14 14:51
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	6	$752	501	401	+100	open	—	01-30 18:54
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	3	$720	374	374	+0	open	—	02-14 07:15
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	7	$706	400	400	+0	open	—	02-13 02:29
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	7	$662	400	400	+0	open	—	02-06 13:06
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	2	$613	635	0	+635	open	—	01-21 16:58
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	5	$532	400	400	+0	open	—	02-06 13:06
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	3	$497	307	307	+0	open	—	02-06 13:05
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	1	$469	469	0	+469	open	—	02-01 14:56
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	4	$445	308	308	+0	open	—	04-08 09:12
Iran leadership change by May 31?	3	$397	257	200	+57	open	—	05-22 08:10
will the silicon data h100 index sdh100rt hit 2pt00 low by february 28 2026	2	$385	206	206	+0	open	—	02-12 16:27
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	6	$379	200	200	-0	open	—	02-16 16:01
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	1	$300	0	301	-301	open	—	01-31 00:54
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?	1	$281	281	0	+281	open	—	02-04 02:05
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	1	$255	0	300	-300	open	—	01-24 15:35
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	3	$242	200	200	+0	open	—	02-06 13:06
Trump out as President by April 30?	2	$201	205	0	+205	open	—	04-05 13:13
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	1	$190	200	0	+200	open	—	01-21 16:57
Iran leadership change by April 30?	3	$183	207	0	+207	open	—	04-06 10:16
will the government shutdown last 14 days or more 343 693 775 861 153	2	$156	158	0	+158	open	—	02-03 12:54
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	1	$151	175	0	+175	open	—	04-07 06:47
us forcibly removes khamenei from power by march 31	4	$150	100	100	+0	open	—	03-01 01:41
Trump cabinet member out by June 30, 2026?	1	$134	134	0	+134	open	—	02-04 02:06
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	1	$119	161	0	+161	open	—	01-21 16:53
netanyahu out by march 31 854	1	$102	105	0	+105	open	—	03-18 05:07
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	1	$100	0	100	-100	open	—	01-03 09:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 09:34:10	will anthropic ipo by july 31 2026	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0x87afa2…
06-07 17:03:36	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x6bc2ac…
06-04 17:19:48	DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30?	No	BUY	44	99¢	$44	0x48613a…
06-04 17:18:39	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0x19c370…
06-04 17:17:33	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x6fb4a9…
05-30 11:13:26	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x0772bf…
05-27 16:22:45	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	40¢	$6	0x2cc525…
05-27 16:09:12	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	40¢	$5	0x810f8e…
05-27 16:08:35	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	40¢	$9	0x5738f4…
05-22 08:17:04	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0xf59fb3…
05-22 08:13:13	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0xa58c32…
05-22 08:13:01	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Yes	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x3bf7c1…
05-22 08:10:37	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	57	97¢	$55	0xf1a108…
05-22 08:09:38	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x95ca25…
05-22 08:09:01	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x4c4566…
05-17 20:43:09	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$49	0x4e8ed0…
05-17 20:30:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	SELL	34	95¢	$33	0x6b1d28…
05-17 20:30:33	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	50	60¢	$30	0x6d8d33…
05-17 20:28:27	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	200	93¢	$186	0xc7d9fd…
05-16 13:32:36	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xc10154…
05-14 04:26:29	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	34	89¢	$31	0xd7d1b9…
05-14 04:15:36	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	69¢	$35	0x9803f5…
05-06 08:56:08	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	50	67¢	$34	0xd11d65…
05-06 08:46:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	41	63¢	$26	0x7b4b89…
05-06 08:40:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x91eef0…
05-06 08:37:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0x44c74e…
05-06 08:36:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x30255d…
05-06 08:36:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x58eeb0…
05-06 08:36:02	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x078f13…
05-06 08:35:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0x191e72…
05-06 08:34:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x7e397b…
05-06 08:32:20	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xf84360…
05-06 08:31:04	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x27b0ae…
04-08 09:12:19	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	154	0¢	$0	0xce6820…
04-07 06:47:59	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	175	86¢	$151	0x03f686…
04-07 05:20:31	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	154	98¢	$151	0x096133…
04-06 10:53:27	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	258	96¢	$247	0x27ad66…
04-06 10:16:59	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xcae288…
04-06 07:52:59	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x217d60…
04-06 07:38:03	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x2b4c42…
04-06 05:12:47	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0x960534…
04-06 05:12:21	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	57	87¢	$49	0x3532c8…
04-05 13:13:59	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x606216…
04-05 13:13:09	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	80	98¢	$79	0xb1041f…
04-05 08:50:49	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	125	98¢	$123	0xbe5f14…
03-27 12:00:29	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xf64dfd…
03-18 05:07:41	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	105	97¢	$102	0x9103f5…
03-07 08:09:35	wbc jap sok 2026 03 07	Japan	BUY	101	89¢	$90	0x38de68…
03-06 10:37:57	wbc cht jap 2026 03 06	Japan	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe34244…
03-06 10:37:57	wbc cht jap 2026 03 06	Japan	BUY	63	99¢	$62	0x43b82a…
03-01 01:41:51	us forcibly removes khamenei from power by march 31	No	SELL	38	50¢	$19	0x1a2e9f…
03-01 01:41:23	us forcibly removes khamenei from power by march 31	No	SELL	62	72¢	$44	0x91c6eb…
03-01 01:37:35	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	SELL	352	1¢	$2	0xabf1aa…
03-01 01:37:31	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x1a14ad…
03-01 01:37:31	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	SELL	2,810	1¢	$17	0x075dc5…
03-01 01:37:31	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	SELL	483	1¢	$3	0x04eeae…
03-01 01:36:11	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	SELL	202	0¢	$1	0x0ed483…
03-01 01:36:09	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	SELL	13	0¢	$0	0x382b83…
03-01 01:36:05	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	SELL	325	0¢	$1	0xfbdfb3…
03-01 01:35:59	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	SELL	460	0¢	$2	0xf15866…
03-01 01:30:37	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	1,454	2¢	$36	0x9b27b8…
02-24 02:55:46	minneapolis border patrol shooter charged	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xeaf32d…
02-19 07:31:32	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	189	92¢	$174	0x172dd4…
02-19 06:42:10	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	66	92¢	$61	0xb64449…
02-19 06:35:18	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xf1b580…
02-19 06:31:12	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x753987…
02-18 13:07:20	us forcibly removes khamenei from power by march 31	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x1dbd45…
02-18 11:31:52	us forcibly removes khamenei from power by march 31	No	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0xcbe6af…
02-16 16:01:07	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	200	96¢	$191	0x4dded7…
02-14 22:42:57	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	16	96¢	$16	0x560c52…
02-14 22:42:53	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	27	96¢	$26	0xfbe91f…
02-14 22:42:53	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	27	96¢	$26	0xa85bb9…
02-14 22:42:53	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	126	96¢	$122	0x917318…
02-14 22:42:53	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x19b91e…
02-14 22:42:51	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x1eca1d…
02-14 22:36:25	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	27	96¢	$26	0xb8b88e…
02-14 22:27:11	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	27	96¢	$26	0xebb7eb…
02-14 22:09:31	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	220	96¢	$212	0x5f7259…
02-14 14:51:47	nothing ever happens khamenei	Yes	SELL	24	84¢	$20	0x471914…
02-14 14:51:37	nothing ever happens khamenei	Yes	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0xc656f2…
02-14 12:44:47	nothing ever happens khamenei	Yes	SELL	355	84¢	$298	0x8c7a77…
02-14 11:24:13	nothing ever happens khamenei	Yes	SELL	138	84¢	$116	0x0e169c…
02-14 08:58:49	will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 20 million 836	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x4efd79…
02-14 08:51:13	will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 18 million 565	No	BUY	36	96¢	$35	0x82fdfb…
02-14 08:17:51	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	90	96¢	$87	0x630123…
02-14 08:17:23	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	130	96¢	$125	0x615df0…
02-14 07:15:41	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	374	97¢	$363	0x308384…
02-14 06:35:35	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	246	96¢	$236	0x136f49…
02-13 03:41:25	will claude 5 be released by february 28 2026 352 784	No	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0x67f6f6…
02-13 02:29:03	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	204	93¢	$190	0xeb44a3…
02-12 16:57:19	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	204	95¢	$194	0x4ad3ba…
02-12 16:27:27	will the silicon data h100 index sdh100rt hit 2pt00 low by february 28 2026	No	SELL	206	94¢	$194	0x5c0607…
02-12 16:25:43	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	171	95¢	$163	0x37f691…
02-12 15:07:25	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0x6e5cd8…
02-12 15:07:23	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	57	94¢	$53	0x2aa5af…
02-12 15:05:39	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	39	94¢	$37	0x57ca71…
02-12 15:05:37	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xb3e5f9…
02-12 15:03:01	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xaf0db7…
02-11 14:43:11	will claude 5 be released by february 28 2026 352 784	No	BUY	5	92¢	$4	0x0f362e…
02-11 14:39:43	will claude 5 be released by february 28 2026 352 784	No	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0xaf74ad…