Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?
open
Total volume
$1,080
Trades
34
Unique wallets
26
Liquidity
$39,827
Latest YES mid
5¢
Latest NO mid
95¢
End date
2026-05-18
First seen
2026-05-13
last 05-17 00:12
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+49.0¢
(top1%: 92% YES on $354
vs crowd: 43% YES on $1.1K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐟 Fish | 5 | $342 | $107 | +$234 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 21 | $121 | $508 | $387 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 2 | $325 | $29 | +$297 |
| Median | 6 | — | $10 | $10 |
| Below median | 4 | — | $8 | $8 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $18 | $10 | +$8 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | $20 | $79 | $59 |
| unranked | 9 | $100 | $481 | $381 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polite-Age 0xe558…dcd2 | Yes | +26,639 | $240 | $240 | 1 | 05-16 17:41 |
| Normal-Check 0x2b46…684d | Yes | +4,500 | $86 | $86 | 3 | 05-16 19:27 |
| Lustrous-Harmony 0xc8ea…7f8d | Yes | +2,222 | $20 | $20 | 2 | 05-16 17:39 |
| Verifiable-Gearshift 0x1332…2b23 | Yes | +1,000 | $70 | $70 | 1 | 05-16 21:17 |
| Lumbering-Atom 0xdf8e…94b8 | Yes | +431 | $22 | $22 | 1 | 05-16 21:22 |
| Queasy-Sensitive 0x728a…da37 | No | +215 | $203 | $203 | 1 | 05-16 21:17 |
| Handy-Obedience 0x8268…e975 | No | +207 | $199 | $199 | 1 | 05-16 21:27 |
| Glittering-Chaise 0x5c57…5b16 | Yes | +205 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 05-16 20:52 |
| Glass-Queen 0x5e02…b178 | Yes | +160 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 05-16 19:27 |
| Super-Flour 0x16dd…adf5 | No | +83 | $78 | $78 | 1 | 05-16 20:12 |
| Watchful-Misnomer 0xb58e…ad21 | Yes | +77 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-16 21:15 |
| Feline-Department 0x671a…2f1e | No | +50 | $50 | $50 | 2 | 05-14 19:47 |
| Joyous-Snow 0xee5e…e619 | Yes | +33 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-16 20:12 |
| Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e | No | +30 | $29 | $29 | 1 | 05-16 23:13 |
| Normal-Check 0x2b46…684d | No | +30 | $29 | $29 | 1 | 05-16 23:04 |
| Glass-Queen 0x5e02…b178 | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 05-16 20:57 |
| Imperfect-Cellar 0x7ada…b8a0 | Yes | +9 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-16 20:37 |
| Harmless-Forte 0xf4bd…c685 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-16 22:40 |
| (anonymous) 0xa05a…4635 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-16 23:05 |
| Waterlogged-Medal 0xb958…a239 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-17 00:12 |
| Wary-Wish 0xc158…067b | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-17 00:11 |
| Wealthy-Procedure 0xaae9…bada | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-17 00:02 |
| Sarcastic-Economics 0xbdb5…d265 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-17 00:03 |
| Wise-Outcome 0xe724…8e51 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-17 00:08 |
| Violet-Tunnel 0xa2f6…d7bb | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-17 00:07 |
| Big-Checkbook 0x0769…d586 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-17 00:08 |
| Murky-Corsage 0x73fd…b3e4 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-17 00:04 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-17 00:12:16 | Waterlogged-Medal 0xb958…a239 | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xaca339… |
| 05-17 00:11:02 | Wary-Wish 0xc158…067b | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xbb88b7… |
| 05-17 00:08:23 | Big-Checkbook 0x0769…d586 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xf2ffcb… |
| 05-17 00:08:11 | Wise-Outcome 0xe724…8e51 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x22fafa… |
| 05-17 00:07:37 | Violet-Tunnel 0xa2f6…d7bb | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x0fd822… |
| 05-17 00:04:46 | Murky-Corsage 0x73fd…b3e4 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xb4e79e… |
| 05-17 00:03:06 | Sarcastic-Economics 0xbdb5…d265 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xc2e74d… |
| 05-17 00:02:36 | Wealthy-Procedure 0xaae9…bada | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x7275a4… |
| 05-16 23:13:00 | Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e | No | BUY | 30 | 96¢ | $29 | 0xaf68f9… |
| 05-16 23:05:33 | (anonymous) 0xa05a…4635 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xf74338… |
| 05-16 23:04:37 | Normal-Check 0x2b46…684d | No | BUY | 30 | 96¢ | $29 | 0x05e8ab… |
| 05-16 22:40:42 | Harmless-Forte 0xf4bd…c685 | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x6c9cf3… |
| 05-16 21:27:46 | Far-Flung-Tender 0xcdf2…8555 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xbd6e03… |
| 05-16 21:27:21 | Handy-Obedience 0x8268…e975 | No | BUY | 207 | 96¢ | $199 | 0xe6ea41… |
| 05-16 21:22:25 | Lumbering-Atom 0xdf8e…94b8 | Yes | BUY | 431 | 5¢ | $22 | 0x2230c8… |
| 05-16 21:17:49 | Verifiable-Gearshift 0x1332…2b23 | Yes | BUY | 1,000 | 7¢ | $70 | 0x37431c… |
| 05-16 21:17:33 | Queasy-Sensitive 0x728a…da37 | No | BUY | 215 | 94¢ | $203 | 0x240f0b… |
| 05-16 21:15:24 | Watchful-Misnomer 0xb58e…ad21 | Yes | BUY | 77 | 6¢ | $5 | 0xdff7ba… |
| 05-16 20:57:31 | Glass-Queen 0x5e02…b178 | No | BUY | 5 | 92¢ | $5 | 0x909e0f… |
| 05-16 20:52:02 | Glittering-Chaise 0x5c57…5b16 | Yes | BUY | 205 | 8¢ | $16 | 0xa03ff5… |
| 05-16 20:37:22 | Imperfect-Cellar 0x7ada…b8a0 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xca466f… |
| 05-16 20:24:07 | Glass-Queen 0x5e02…b178 | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x7b142e… |
| 05-16 20:12:50 | Joyous-Snow 0xee5e…e619 | Yes | BUY | 33 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x4d1825… |
| 05-16 20:12:48 | Super-Flour 0x16dd…adf5 | No | BUY | 83 | 94¢ | $78 | 0x430eb9… |
| 05-16 19:27:18 | Normal-Check 0x2b46…684d | Yes | BUY | 1,000 | 2¢ | $19 | 0x31995f… |
| 05-16 19:27:16 | Normal-Check 0x2b46…684d | Yes | BUY | 1,000 | 2¢ | $19 | 0xc72875… |
| 05-16 19:27:16 | Normal-Check 0x2b46…684d | Yes | BUY | 2,500 | 2¢ | $48 | 0x12a5cb… |
| 05-16 19:27:13 | Glass-Queen 0x5e02…b178 | Yes | BUY | 60 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x1308e8… |
| 05-16 17:41:55 | Polite-Age 0xe558…dcd2 | Yes | BUY | 26,639 | 1¢ | $240 | 0xb49b97… |
| 05-16 17:39:39 | Lustrous-Harmony 0xc8ea…7f8d | Yes | BUY | 1,111 | 1¢ | $10 | 0x3e0fbf… |
| 05-16 14:09:49 | Lustrous-Harmony 0xc8ea…7f8d | Yes | BUY | 1,111 | 1¢ | $10 | 0x381fce… |
| 05-14 20:24:12 | Glass-Queen 0x5e02…b178 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xe938b5… |
| 05-14 19:47:06 | Feline-Department 0x671a…2f1e | No | BUY | 25 | 100¢ | $25 | 0x82fac8… |
| 05-13 03:28:29 | Feline-Department 0x671a…2f1e | No | BUY | 25 | 100¢ | $25 | 0x3256f1… |