Realized P&L
-$657
Unrealized P&L
+$378
Hit rate
20.8%
Resolved
1,775
Trades
6,727
lifetime
Volume
$49.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$7
Open exposure
$1.79K
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-21
last 11-08 15:17
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 73 days
Categories
Other
63% 19% -$507
Politics
14% 11% -$18
Crypto
12% 66% -$86
Tech
7% 8% -$35
Sports
3% 8% -$4
Pop-Culture
1% 0% -$7
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
45 active days in 12wk • peak 707 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes +150 $74 74¢ $110 +$36 11-02 05:39
Will Dricus Du Plessis fight Nasourdine Imavov next? No +120 $99 83¢ $100 +$1 11-01 05:24
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026? No +120 $74 74¢ $89 +$15 11-01 06:23
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +100 $56 78¢ $78 +$21 10-21 15:58
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026? Yes +94 $66 75¢ $71 +$4 11-05 07:36
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%? Yes +105 $47 67¢ $71 +$24 10-28 21:28
Will Robinhood be first to list tokenized stocks in the US? No +90 $40 72¢ $64 +$24 11-01 03:45
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +68 $57 94¢ $64 +$8 10-17 22:06
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No +74 $50 86¢ $64 +$14 10-26 15:00
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +100 $47 64¢ $64 +$16 11-02 03:47
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? No +70 $75 90¢ $62 -$13 10-27 03:12
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2027? Yes +100 $73 59¢ $59 -$14 11-01 14:27
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026? Yes +100 $15 58¢ $59 +$44 11-04 10:59
Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $100M and $125M by November 30? No +78 $47 72¢ $57 +$9 10-28 02:36
Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election? No +60 $51 94¢ $56 +$5 10-26 14:58
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting? Yes +60 $30 91¢ $55 +$25 10-27 00:57
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? No +58 $46 89¢ $52 +$6 10-28 22:59
Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? No +60 $52 84¢ $51 -$1 11-02 03:39
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? No +50 $43 99¢ $50 +$7 10-26 14:37
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? No +50 $32 98¢ $49 +$17 10-11 05:38
Will Bruce Blakeman win Nassau County in the New York governor race in 2026? No +50 $21 96¢ $48 +$28 10-08 10:55
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No +50 $36 94¢ $48 +$12 10-26 14:28
Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.25T at the end of November 2026? No +60 $48 78¢ $47 -$1 11-05 07:17
Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $3.00T and $3.50T at the end of 2026? No +59 $43 80¢ $47 +$4 10-27 17:31
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 65% or higher? Yes +80 $18 58¢ $46 +$29 11-02 00:50
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.75T? No +60 $20 77¢ $46 +$26 10-31 19:08
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +55 $25 84¢ $46 +$21 11-04 11:21
Will "Resident Evil Requiem" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? Yes +60 $35 76¢ $46 +$11 11-04 11:07
Will Kroger Q3 identical sales without fuel growth be above 1%? No +59 $42 76¢ $45 +$3 11-08 03:33
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.6% and 2.8%? No +60 $47 74¢ $44 -$3 11-02 06:14