Realized P&L
-$640
Unrealized P&L
+$352
Hit rate
21.2%
Resolved
1,747
Trades
6,727
lifetime
Volume
$49.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$7
Open exposure
$1.85K
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-21
last 11-08 15:17
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 71 days
Categories
Other
63% 19% -$492
Politics
14% 8% -$18
Crypto
12% 67% -$85
Tech
7% 8% -$35
Sports
3% 8% -$4
Pop-Culture
1% 0% -$7
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
46 active days in 12wk • peak 707 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes +150 $74 74¢ $111 +$36 11-02 05:39
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026? No +101 $61 99¢ $100 +$39 11-03 15:34
Will Dricus Du Plessis fight Nasourdine Imavov next? No +120 $99 83¢ $100 +$0 11-01 05:24
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October? Yes +119 $67 76¢ $90 +$24 11-01 12:07
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026? No +120 $74 66¢ $80 +$6 11-01 06:23
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026? Yes +94 $66 82¢ $77 +$11 11-05 07:36
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%? No +105 $59 68¢ $71 +$12 10-28 12:57
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026? Yes +100 $15 68¢ $68 +$53 11-04 10:59
Will Robinhood be first to list tokenized stocks in the US? No +90 $40 72¢ $64 +$24 11-01 03:45
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +68 $57 94¢ $64 +$8 10-17 22:06
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +100 $56 64¢ $64 +$8 10-21 15:58
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? No +70 $75 89¢ $62 -$13 10-27 03:12
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No +74 $50 82¢ $61 +$11 10-26 15:00
Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election? No +60 $51 94¢ $56 +$5 10-26 14:58
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting? Yes +60 $30 89¢ $53 +$24 10-27 00:57
Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? No +60 $52 89¢ $53 +$1 11-02 03:39
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026? No +100 $56 52¢ $52 -$5 11-02 04:48
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? No +58 $46 88¢ $51 +$5 10-28 22:59
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? No +50 $29 100¢ $50 +$21 11-01 04:20
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? No +50 $43 99¢ $49 +$6 10-26 14:37
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026? No +52 $45 95¢ $49 +$4 11-03 15:34
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +100 $47 48¢ $48 +$1 11-02 03:47
Will Bruce Blakeman win Nassau County in the New York governor race in 2026? No +50 $21 96¢ $48 +$28 10-08 10:55
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? No +50 $32 97¢ $48 +$16 10-11 05:38
Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $3.00T and $3.50T at the end of 2026? No +59 $43 82¢ $48 +$5 10-27 17:31
Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.25T at the end of November 2026? No +60 $48 78¢ $47 -$1 11-05 07:17
Will "Resident Evil Requiem" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? Yes +60 $35 78¢ $47 +$12 11-04 11:07
Will Kroger Q3 identical sales without fuel growth be above 1%? No +59 $42 76¢ $45 +$3 11-08 03:33
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No +50 $36 88¢ $44 +$9 10-26 14:28
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.6% and 2.8%? No +60 $47 74¢ $44 -$3 11-02 06:14