Realized P&L
-$657
Unrealized P&L
+$356
Hit rate
20.8%
Resolved
1,777
Trades
6,727
lifetime
Volume
$49.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$7
Open exposure
$1.80K
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-21
last 11-08 15:17
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 73 days
Categories
Other
63% 19% -$508
Politics
14% 11% -$18
Crypto
12% 66% -$86
Tech
7% 8% -$35
Sports
3% 8% -$4
Pop-Culture
1% 0% -$7
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
45 active days in 12wk • peak 707 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes +150 $74 76¢ $115 +$40 11-02 05:39
Will Dricus Du Plessis fight Nasourdine Imavov next? No +120 $99 83¢ $100 +$0 11-01 05:24
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026? No +120 $74 74¢ $89 +$16 11-01 06:23
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +100 $56 76¢ $76 +$20 10-21 15:58
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026? Yes +94 $66 75¢ $71 +$4 11-05 07:36
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026? Yes +100 $15 66¢ $67 +$52 11-04 10:59
Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $100M and $125M by November 30? No +78 $47 84¢ $66 +$19 10-28 02:36
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +68 $57 95¢ $65 +$8 10-17 22:06
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No +74 $50 88¢ $65 +$15 10-26 15:00
Will Robinhood be first to list tokenized stocks in the US? No +90 $40 72¢ $64 +$24 11-01 03:45
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? No +70 $75 90¢ $62 -$13 10-27 03:12
Will "Resident Evil Requiem" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? Yes +60 $35 100¢ $60 +$25 11-04 11:07
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2027? Yes +100 $73 60¢ $59 -$13 11-01 14:27
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +100 $47 57¢ $57 +$10 11-02 03:47
Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election? No +60 $51 94¢ $56 +$5 10-26 14:58
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%? No +105 $59 53¢ $56 -$3 10-28 12:57
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting? Yes +60 $30 90¢ $54 +$25 10-27 00:57
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? No +58 $46 88¢ $51 +$6 10-28 22:59
Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? No +60 $52 84¢ $50 -$2 11-02 03:39
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.75T? No +60 $20 84¢ $50 +$30 10-31 19:08
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%? Yes +105 $47 47¢ $49 +$2 10-28 21:28
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? No +50 $43 98¢ $49 +$6 10-26 14:37
Will Bruce Blakeman win Nassau County in the New York governor race in 2026? No +50 $21 96¢ $48 +$28 10-08 10:55
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? No +50 $32 96¢ $48 +$15 10-11 05:38
Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.25T at the end of November 2026? No +60 $48 78¢ $47 -$1 11-05 07:17
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No +50 $36 94¢ $47 +$12 10-26 14:28
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +55 $25 84¢ $46 +$21 11-04 11:21
Will Kroger Q3 identical sales without fuel growth be above 1%? No +59 $42 76¢ $45 +$3 11-08 03:33
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.6% and 2.8%? No +60 $47 74¢ $44 -$3 11-02 06:14
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% before 2027? No +50 $40 88¢ $44 +$4 10-26 14:35