Gentle-Thinking — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$155

Unrealized P&L

+$30

Hit rate

78.9%

Resolved

Trades

243

lifetime

Volume

$16.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$69

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-02-01

last 07-17 09:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 46 days

Categories

Politics

57% 61% -$695

Other

34% 71% +$373

Tech

6% 100% +$187

Sports

2% 67% +$96

Crypto

1% 20% -$116

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-17).

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-189	-$83	3¢	$-5	+$78	05-04 18:12
nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	+81	$50	4¢	$4	-$47	07-07 12:38
US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	+9	$2	2¢	$0	-$2	05-25 17:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	10	$2.8K	1,950	1,950	+0	No	+$282	04-22 09:10
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$1.1K	700	700	+0	Yes	+$320	04-05 17:41
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	7	$1.1K	1,300	1,000	+300	Yes	-$225	05-01 19:07
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?	17	$876	699	691	+8	Yes	+$149	03-16 21:58
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	7	$810	778	235	+542	Yes	-$495	04-07 20:54
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	6	$804	564	564	+0	No	+$70	04-23 07:40
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?	7	$695	428	428	-0	Yes	+$161	03-06 19:51
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	5	$517	493	460	+33	No	+$5	04-12 11:54
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$488	400	400	+0	Yes	+$8	03-09 18:25
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	2	$356	200	200	+0	Yes	+$44	03-02 21:53
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	2	$335	207	207	+0	No	+$33	04-05 22:40
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$326	400	0	+400	Yes	-$326	04-06 08:01
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$317	346	0	+346	No	+$29	04-26 18:41
will crude oil cl hit high 75 by end of march 216 621 736 725 922 826 757	3	$312	171	171	+0	Yes	+$13	03-04 11:01
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	2	$287	489	489	+0	open	—	07-17 09:08
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	5	$280	203	203	+0	Yes	+$5	04-19 19:26
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	3	$250	400	394	+6	Yes	+$10	04-30 11:00
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	3	$242	158	110	+48	Yes	+$4	03-14 21:44
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	3	$239	333	28	+305	Yes	-$227	04-11 11:56
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	4	$236	145	143	+2	No	+$33	04-27 08:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	2	$234	157	157	+0	No	+$76	05-29 21:03
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$224	300	300	+0	Yes	+$127	07-17 09:09
will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	7	$210	229	0	+229	No	+$19	03-09 20:44
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	1	$207	300	0	+300	Yes	+$93	04-28 20:03
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	6	$206	241	241	+0	No	+$71	04-26 20:02
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	2	$189	100	100	+0	No	+$3	04-23 07:33
will sp 500 spx hit 7000 high in march 2026	5	$162	209	0	+209	No	+$47	03-14 21:49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	2	$155	89	89	+0	No	+$22	05-29 21:03
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	4	$148	594	0	+594	Yes	-$148	04-14 21:27
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	1	$143	162	0	+162	Yes	-$143	04-07 21:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-17 09:09:33	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	300	58¢	$176	0x4f88e4…
07-17 09:08:52	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	489	16¢	$77	0xed60e1…
07-07 12:38:25	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	BUY	81	62¢	$50	0x35a426…
06-22 22:07:14	bitcoin above 64k on june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	51	64¢	$33	0xe6a7f7…
06-22 22:06:43	bitcoin above 64k on june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0xd5fd16…
06-22 22:05:56	Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	No	BUY	30	51¢	$15	0xe1d645…
06-22 22:04:17	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	No	BUY	45	58¢	$26	0x781d16…
06-22 22:03:41	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x91000b…
06-10 07:02:19	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	300	16¢	$48	0x4732c0…
06-03 16:08:12	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June?	No	SELL	160	11¢	$18	0xb1a386…
06-03 07:22:46	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June?	No	BUY	80	23¢	$18	0x808c98…
06-03 07:22:27	Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?	Yes	BUY	19	66¢	$13	0xacaa91…
06-03 07:02:05	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June?	No	BUY	80	21¢	$17	0x47b234…
05-31 08:10:43	Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?	Yes	BUY	15	92¢	$14	0x17de57…
05-29 21:08:06	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	18	69¢	$12	0x2574e9…
05-29 21:08:04	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	23	69¢	$16	0xd7358f…
05-29 21:07:38	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	13	69¢	$9	0x774193…
05-29 21:03:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	SELL	89	99¢	$89	0x5df9f2…
05-29 21:03:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	SELL	157	99¢	$155	0xd338c7…
05-25 19:46:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0xa0d6ee…
05-25 17:25:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	89	75¢	$67	0x41c44a…
05-25 17:25:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	157	50¢	$79	0x408554…
05-25 17:23:35	US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x25b9aa…
05-07 20:01:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	8	18¢	$1	0xbeed09…
05-07 20:01:19	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	96	17¢	$16	0xea0b78…
05-07 19:52:17	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0x35f478…
05-05 21:31:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0xbdbfd7…
05-04 18:12:30	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	173	44¢	$76	0x20c835…
05-04 17:42:58	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0x09880d…
05-04 14:59:54	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	44¢	$6	0xbefca1…
05-03 13:48:58	Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	No	BUY	28	94¢	$27	0x79378f…
05-01 19:07:58	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	BUY	300	14¢	$42	0x90183e…
05-01 19:03:42	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	SELL	397	17¢	$68	0xd2c860…
04-30 14:29:08	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	489	43¢	$210	0xe906c6…
04-30 11:00:32	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	SELL	140	33¢	$46	0xe23f57…
04-29 21:22:52	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	SELL	254	33¢	$84	0xc85256…
04-28 20:03:58	Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	69¢	$207	0x6d4235…
04-28 06:36:32	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	400	30¢	$120	0xbd02cb…
04-27 08:06:32	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	143	94¢	$134	0xd271b8…
04-26 20:03:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0xa692ea…
04-26 20:03:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	7¢	$4	0xeb84c8…
04-26 20:03:04	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x2abbef…
04-26 20:02:06	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0xea0c1c…
04-26 19:58:10	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	92¢	$15	0x15b63b…
04-26 18:41:48	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	143	92¢	$131	0xae5d75…
04-26 18:40:10	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	203	92¢	$186	0x5049ab…
04-24 17:43:10	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0xb94209…
04-24 17:42:58	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	SELL	227	58¢	$132	0x9eeb1d…
04-24 17:42:40	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	SELL	67	58¢	$39	0x1f260f…
04-24 17:40:08	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	SELL	304	58¢	$176	0xd3eeaa…
04-24 17:37:14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	61¢	$122	0x481ed4…
04-24 17:36:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	62¢	$17	0xecb095…
04-24 12:59:04	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	28¢	$56	0x201de6…
04-24 12:58:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	28¢	$5	0x863013…
04-24 12:58:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	28¢	$6	0xceec4f…
04-23 22:12:44	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	BUY	1,000	60¢	$600	0x93516a…
04-23 07:46:28	Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x265fd8…
04-23 07:40:04	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	300	84¢	$252	0x490315…
04-23 07:33:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	59	70¢	$41	0x5b36a7…
04-23 07:33:16	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x7c754d…
04-23 07:18:30	Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x31e901…
04-23 07:18:14	Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x52ad57…
04-22 20:31:30	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0xed11f9…
04-22 20:31:06	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xfe190f…
04-22 20:30:10	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x531ae7…
04-22 20:29:20	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	59	65¢	$38	0x03ba08…
04-22 09:10:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	306	85¢	$260	0x422354…
04-21 22:27:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	272	81¢	$220	0x630617…
04-21 21:06:38	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0xea2ec7…
04-21 20:58:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	87	80¢	$70	0x0ed067…
04-21 20:54:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	219	80¢	$175	0x7eb5c2…
04-21 20:51:10	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0x2913b4…
04-21 20:50:26	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	70¢	$31	0xe1a397…
04-21 20:35:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	362	79¢	$286	0xb5e387…
04-21 20:34:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	204	78¢	$159	0x44963a…
04-21 20:24:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	500	75¢	$375	0x66cc27…
04-20 19:06:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	750	65¢	$488	0xfc86b0…
04-20 18:49:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	800	65¢	$520	0x040b74…
04-20 18:34:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	400	64¢	$256	0xc0deb7…
04-19 19:26:20	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	142	70¢	$99	0xf7c3f3…
04-18 16:40:50	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	38	71¢	$27	0xe14534…
04-14 21:27:44	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	397	23¢	$90	0x8211e1…
04-14 21:27:28	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	120	23¢	$27	0x9ea02c…
04-14 21:26:06	spy up or down on april 15 2026	Down	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0x00d759…
04-14 21:24:38	spx opens up or down on april 15 2026	Down	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xd8b0e2…
04-12 11:54:45	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	171	55¢	$94	0x90b1fc…
04-12 11:52:15	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	23	70¢	$16	0x473a3b…
04-11 11:56:57	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	No	SELL	22	22¢	$5	0xa78c7d…
04-11 11:56:57	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	No	SELL	6	22¢	$1	0x8d11de…
04-08 10:49:07	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x4ed0c2…
04-08 10:48:53	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	67	39¢	$26	0xd48fb5…
04-07 21:02:03	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	162	88¢	$143	0x1fffa2…
04-07 20:56:41	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	141	57¢	$80	0xd53204…
04-07 20:56:33	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	58¢	$58	0xff040d…
04-07 20:56:19	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	48	60¢	$29	0x2c7498…
04-07 20:54:31	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	SELL	15	67¢	$10	0xb382aa…
04-07 20:54:21	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	SELL	220	67¢	$148	0x06e269…
04-07 14:57:49	Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	140	28¢	$39	0x59398b…
04-06 20:12:27	Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	330	26¢	$87	0x5e9f53…
04-06 17:36:31	will trump say left behind during monday news conference	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xe62cf8…