Favorable-Earthquake — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

115

lifetime

Volume

$13.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$117

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-10

last 06-09 22:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

43% 0% $-2

Sports

38% 0% $-1

Politics

10% — —

Crypto

8% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	8	$1.2K	646	646	+0	No	$-1	03-30 17:42
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	6	$1.1K	576	576	+0	open	—	03-27 16:27
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	6	$868	455	455	+0	open	—	04-11 12:38
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	4	$790	414	414	+0	open	—	03-18 11:46
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	7	$786	415	415	+0	Yes	$-2	03-26 00:44
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	4	$754	387	387	+0	open	—	03-30 04:17
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$753	395	395	+0	open	—	03-27 06:55
Netanyahu out by April 30?	7	$728	377	377	+0	open	—	03-29 23:25
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	5	$494	256	256	+0	open	—	04-12 01:55
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	4	$475	259	259	+0	open	—	04-13 23:22
2026 the players championship winner xander schauffele win	3	$407	212	212	+0	open	—	03-13 07:02
will ludvig aberg win the 2026 masters tournament	4	$406	213	213	+0	open	—	03-13 15:08
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	4	$405	210	210	+0	open	—	03-13 01:29
will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	3	$404	215	215	+0	open	—	03-19 02:45
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$401	205	205	+0	open	—	03-12 10:06
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	2	$399	207	207	+0	open	—	03-15 17:53
will florida win the 2026 ncaa tournament	2	$396	216	216	+0	open	—	03-20 07:14
will st johns win the 2026 ncaa tournament	2	$377	194	194	+0	open	—	03-24 03:40
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$360	185	185	+0	open	—	03-28 15:08
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	6	$351	180	180	+0	open	—	04-21 04:01
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	4	$212	113	113	+0	open	—	06-05 05:47
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	2	$134	68	68	+0	open	—	05-20 07:12
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	3	$127	94	40	+54	open	—	06-09 22:17
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	2	$126	67	67	+0	open	—	05-19 16:56
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	2	$111	57	57	+0	open	—	04-28 01:10
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$109	59	59	+0	open	—	04-13 05:35
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	2	$102	53	53	+0	open	—	03-31 17:54
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	2	$101	55	54	+0	open	—	04-10 16:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$93	48	48	+0	open	—	05-12 09:29
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	2	$88	46	46	+0	open	—	05-15 15:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 22:17:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	54	96¢	$51	0x819f2d…
06-09 14:55:01	will ecuador reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149726	No	SELL	36	92¢	$33	0xb76660…
06-09 09:52:46	will ecuador reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149726	No	BUY	36	92¢	$33	0xd701af…
06-07 08:07:04	will bitcoin reach 75k in june 2026	No	SELL	46	91¢	$42	0x50c629…
06-07 01:06:28	will bitcoin reach 75k in june 2026	No	BUY	46	94¢	$44	0x2652ba…
06-07 00:34:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	40	93¢	$38	0x1cb569…
06-06 16:28:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	40	93¢	$38	0x74a717…
06-05 05:47:40	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	61	93¢	$57	0xaf4983…
06-04 22:44:13	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	61	94¢	$57	0x70aef0…
06-04 04:07:31	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	53	93¢	$49	0x77831b…
06-03 23:06:22	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$49	0x8b16bd…
06-02 11:22:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	43	98¢	$42	0xecfe7c…
06-02 07:19:27	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x37d8d7…
05-20 12:48:27	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	No	SELL	45	96¢	$43	0x576a2e…
05-20 07:12:50	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	SELL	68	98¢	$67	0x65ac1f…
05-20 00:10:13	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	68	98¢	$67	0x70008f…
05-19 16:56:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	SELL	67	93¢	$63	0x0ac462…
05-19 10:51:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	67	94¢	$63	0x7bff91…
05-15 15:48:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	SELL	46	95¢	$44	0x2823a3…
05-15 08:41:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	46	96¢	$44	0xad1fef…
05-12 09:29:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	48	98¢	$47	0x95819c…
05-06 05:13:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	48	95¢	$46	0x01b3f2…
04-28 01:10:14	Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	57	98¢	$55	0xc19d16…
04-27 20:02:38	Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	57	98¢	$55	0x0523ca…
04-21 04:01:38	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	SELL	62	98¢	$61	0x36e40b…
04-20 20:10:06	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	BUY	62	98¢	$61	0x845cf4…
04-13 23:22:15	Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	62	92¢	$58	0xba8c23…
04-13 17:15:13	Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	62	92¢	$58	0xd727e5…
04-13 05:35:55	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	59	92¢	$54	0x7c7477…
04-13 00:58:39	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	59	93¢	$55	0x83fbfc…
04-12 01:55:45	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	SELL	55	97¢	$53	0xd1a453…
04-11 19:54:57	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	BUY	55	97¢	$53	0x6bf3e0…
04-11 12:38:53	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	54	94¢	$51	0xed0bab…
04-11 03:36:47	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	54	94¢	$51	0x032dc4…
04-10 16:02:31	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	SELL	52	97¢	$51	0x8573dc…
04-10 16:00:39	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	No	SELL	54	92¢	$50	0x709d27…
04-10 11:38:47	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	No	BUY	55	93¢	$51	0xb61d26…
04-10 11:38:19	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	BUY	52	97¢	$51	0xd7cd53…
04-08 04:49:41	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	SELL	66	97¢	$64	0x91bcd7…
04-07 19:02:45	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	BUY	66	98¢	$64	0xc1d1b8…
03-31 17:54:05	Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	SELL	53	96¢	$51	0x4ec34a…
03-31 09:24:49	Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	BUY	53	96¢	$51	0xe2f7c1…
03-30 17:42:03	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	55	96¢	$53	0xc3b1fc…
03-30 12:46:56	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	55	97¢	$54	0x392271…
03-30 04:17:12	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	190	97¢	$185	0xf940bf…
03-30 00:10:02	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	190	98¢	$186	0x36ae95…
03-29 23:25:52	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	SELL	190	97¢	$183	0x9eea1b…
03-29 16:12:04	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0xae7a0e…
03-29 16:12:04	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	44	96¢	$42	0xa13913…
03-29 16:11:26	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	12	96¢	$12	0x2970a2…
03-29 16:10:54	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	126	96¢	$121	0x8ba046…
03-29 15:35:42	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	197	97¢	$191	0xb3b6a9…
03-29 08:29:32	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	197	97¢	$192	0xbad4cc…
03-28 21:08:12	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	194	96¢	$187	0x7a6265…
03-28 16:25:39	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	194	96¢	$187	0xe1478f…
03-28 15:08:35	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	185	98¢	$180	0xf8a3fa…
03-28 10:13:55	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	185	97¢	$180	0x3dd55e…
03-28 03:02:35	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	185	97¢	$179	0x05d258…
03-27 18:11:51	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	185	97¢	$179	0x189604…
03-27 16:27:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	195	97¢	$190	0x90da59…
03-27 07:54:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	195	98¢	$190	0x6c62a4…
03-27 06:55:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	187	96¢	$180	0x02b14f…
03-26 22:32:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	187	96¢	$179	0x20aa18…
03-26 13:30:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	184	97¢	$180	0x2eafb2…
03-26 09:11:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	184	97¢	$179	0xfec853…
03-26 08:34:35	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	SELL	187	96¢	$181	0xdab7c7…
03-26 01:06:09	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	187	96¢	$181	0x34e6fe…
03-26 00:44:41	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	193	95¢	$182	0x9c7a7d…
03-25 18:00:15	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x059bae…
03-25 17:57:33	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	174	96¢	$166	0xb05280…
03-25 17:57:21	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x44c591…
03-25 17:57:21	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	13	96¢	$12	0x17f651…
03-25 08:38:05	Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	197	91¢	$180	0x03de03…
03-25 01:28:37	Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	197	92¢	$180	0x0d8b0f…
03-24 03:40:55	will st johns win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	SELL	194	97¢	$188	0x150e2f…
03-23 16:48:11	will st johns win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	194	98¢	$189	0x64d578…
03-23 06:38:23	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	197	95¢	$188	0x74841e…
03-22 21:35:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	197	96¢	$189	0xbfea19…
03-22 12:32:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	208	94¢	$197	0x436a52…
03-22 07:46:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	208	95¢	$197	0x861182…
03-22 06:41:21	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	201	96¢	$194	0x7b5aed…
03-22 00:54:35	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	201	96¢	$194	0x9ec3a1…
03-21 17:58:47	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	205	96¢	$197	0x7f81ec…
03-21 10:25:03	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	205	96¢	$198	0xb775ac…
03-20 07:14:59	will florida win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	SELL	216	91¢	$197	0xaa2df9…
03-19 22:38:31	will florida win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	216	92¢	$199	0x9b3b38…
03-19 02:45:55	will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	No	SELL	215	94¢	$202	0x690e50…
03-18 18:23:41	will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	No	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0x8a9e07…
03-18 18:22:15	will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	No	BUY	199	94¢	$186	0x42aff8…
03-18 11:46:27	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	196	96¢	$188	0xb96cd2…
03-18 05:43:17	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	196	96¢	$189	0xe07949…
03-18 05:17:53	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	SELL	201	96¢	$193	0x56f922…
03-18 01:10:37	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0x7cf432…
03-18 01:03:29	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	BUY	187	96¢	$181	0x5adf6b…
03-15 17:53:21	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	SELL	207	96¢	$199	0x1b451e…
03-15 11:35:05	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	BUY	207	97¢	$200	0xc41c17…
03-14 23:09:39	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	207	95¢	$196	0x639ecf…
03-14 18:08:35	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	207	95¢	$196	0xa759ea…
03-13 15:08:57	will ludvig aberg win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	213	94¢	$200	0xe8dc2d…
03-13 08:07:31	will ludvig aberg win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	96	97¢	$93	0x964cf4…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	33	$68.4K	793	06-09 00:36
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	31	$252.1K	4,491	06-07 03:21
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	27	$103.7K	7,545	06-09 20:34
(anonymous) 0x9474…5091	26	$4.15K	3,012	06-05 03:46
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	26	$3.51K	937	06-10 02:02
Trustworthy-Kingdom 0xe5ce…7f3f	25	$334.1K	9,932	06-09 18:33
Wrathful-Treat 0xdc62…1eb3	25	$333.8K	7,934	06-09 16:11
Gummy-Sale 0xee29…89d8	25	$294.6K	9,295	06-09 16:11