Favorable-Earthquake — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

138

lifetime

Volume

$14.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$104

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-10

last 07-27 23:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

42% 0% $-2

Sports

39% 0% $-1

Politics

10% — —

Crypto

9% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	8	$1.2K	646	646	+0	No	$-1	03-30 17:42
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	6	$1.1K	576	576	+0	open	—	03-27 16:27
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	6	$868	455	455	+0	open	—	04-11 12:38
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	4	$790	414	414	+0	open	—	03-18 11:46
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	7	$786	415	415	+0	Yes	$-2	03-26 00:44
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	4	$754	387	387	+0	open	—	03-30 04:17
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$753	395	395	+0	open	—	03-27 06:55
Netanyahu out by April 30?	7	$728	377	377	+0	open	—	03-29 23:25
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	5	$494	256	256	+0	open	—	04-12 01:55
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	4	$475	259	259	+0	open	—	04-13 23:22
2026 the players championship winner xander schauffele win	3	$407	212	212	+0	open	—	03-13 07:02
will ludvig aberg win the 2026 masters tournament	4	$406	213	213	+0	open	—	03-13 15:08
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	4	$405	210	210	+0	open	—	03-13 01:29
will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	3	$404	215	215	+0	open	—	03-19 02:45
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$401	205	205	+0	open	—	03-12 10:06
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	2	$399	207	207	+0	open	—	03-15 17:53
will florida win the 2026 ncaa tournament	2	$396	216	216	+0	open	—	03-20 07:14
will st johns win the 2026 ncaa tournament	2	$377	194	194	+0	open	—	03-24 03:40
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$360	185	185	+0	open	—	03-28 15:08
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	6	$351	180	180	+0	open	—	04-21 04:01
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	6	$336	180	180	+0	open	—	06-21 08:03
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	4	$178	94	94	+0	open	—	06-10 06:21
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	2	$134	68	68	+0	open	—	05-20 07:12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	2	$126	67	67	+0	open	—	05-19 16:56
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	2	$114	62	62	+0	open	—	06-10 11:53
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	2	$111	57	57	+0	open	—	04-28 01:10
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$109	59	59	+0	open	—	04-13 05:35
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	2	$105	55	55	+0	open	—	06-19 21:49
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	2	$102	53	53	+0	open	—	03-31 17:54
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$102	54	54	+0	open	—	06-18 08:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-27 23:49:06	mlb tor wsh 2026 07 27 extra innings	No	SELL	4	77¢	$3	0x96f2e6…
07-27 18:41:25	mlb tor wsh 2026 07 27 extra innings	No	BUY	4	93¢	$4	0x203dfe…
06-21 21:52:50	will bitcoin dip to 55k in june 2026	No	BUY	65	95¢	$61	0xd10a3b…
06-21 21:22:43	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	49	90¢	$44	0x2ddc9c…
06-21 14:16:56	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	49	91¢	$45	0x96099b…
06-21 08:03:50	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	67	92¢	$62	0x88abf4…
06-21 00:58:22	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	67	93¢	$62	0x9a25ab…
06-20 11:58:10	will japan reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149730	No	SELL	28	88¢	$25	0x94f3f1…
06-20 05:56:26	will japan reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149730	No	BUY	28	93¢	$26	0x8b4050…
06-20 05:21:52	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 22 2026	Yes	SELL	43	91¢	$39	0x5af783…
06-19 22:20:26	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	43	94¢	$40	0xe0a90e…
06-19 21:49:20	Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	55	95¢	$52	0xcc85d0…
06-19 13:48:52	Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	55	95¢	$53	0x8f510a…
06-18 16:22:59	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	51	95¢	$48	0x427c19…
06-18 09:20:34	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	51	96¢	$49	0xaa0517…
06-18 08:45:17	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	54	93¢	$51	0x25f013…
06-18 04:45:07	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	54	94¢	$51	0x60f915…
06-11 01:05:19	Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	48	97¢	$46	0xd13091…
06-10 21:20:28	Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x3ca235…
06-10 20:58:39	Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	22	97¢	$22	0xb68742…
06-10 11:53:00	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	No	SELL	62	91¢	$57	0xd57c99…
06-10 06:51:55	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	No	BUY	62	92¢	$58	0xe64d25…
06-10 06:21:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	54	95¢	$51	0x8c34b3…
06-09 22:17:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	54	96¢	$51	0x819f2d…
06-09 14:55:01	will ecuador reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149726	No	SELL	36	92¢	$33	0xb76660…
06-09 09:52:46	will ecuador reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149726	No	BUY	36	92¢	$33	0xd701af…
06-07 08:07:04	will bitcoin reach 75k in june 2026	No	SELL	46	91¢	$42	0x50c629…
06-07 01:06:28	will bitcoin reach 75k in june 2026	No	BUY	46	94¢	$44	0x2652ba…
06-07 00:34:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	40	93¢	$38	0x1cb569…
06-06 16:28:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	40	93¢	$38	0x74a717…
06-05 05:47:40	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	61	93¢	$57	0xaf4983…
06-04 22:44:13	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	61	94¢	$57	0x70aef0…
06-04 04:07:31	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	53	93¢	$49	0x77831b…
06-03 23:06:22	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$49	0x8b16bd…
06-02 11:22:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	43	98¢	$42	0xecfe7c…
06-02 07:19:27	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x37d8d7…
05-20 12:48:27	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	No	SELL	45	96¢	$43	0x576a2e…
05-20 07:12:50	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	SELL	68	98¢	$67	0x65ac1f…
05-20 00:10:13	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	68	98¢	$67	0x70008f…
05-19 16:56:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	SELL	67	93¢	$63	0x0ac462…
05-19 10:51:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	67	94¢	$63	0x7bff91…
05-15 15:48:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	SELL	46	95¢	$44	0x2823a3…
05-15 08:41:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	46	96¢	$44	0xad1fef…
05-12 09:29:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	48	98¢	$47	0x95819c…
05-06 05:13:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	48	95¢	$46	0x01b3f2…
04-28 01:10:14	Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	57	98¢	$55	0xc19d16…
04-27 20:02:38	Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	57	98¢	$55	0x0523ca…
04-21 04:01:38	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	SELL	62	98¢	$61	0x36e40b…
04-20 20:10:06	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	BUY	62	98¢	$61	0x845cf4…
04-13 23:22:15	Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	62	92¢	$58	0xba8c23…
04-13 17:15:13	Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	62	92¢	$58	0xd727e5…
04-13 05:35:55	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	59	92¢	$54	0x7c7477…
04-13 00:58:39	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	59	93¢	$55	0x83fbfc…
04-12 01:55:45	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	SELL	55	97¢	$53	0xd1a453…
04-11 19:54:57	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	BUY	55	97¢	$53	0x6bf3e0…
04-11 12:38:53	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	54	94¢	$51	0xed0bab…
04-11 03:36:47	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	54	94¢	$51	0x032dc4…
04-10 16:02:31	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	SELL	52	97¢	$51	0x8573dc…
04-10 16:00:39	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	No	SELL	54	92¢	$50	0x709d27…
04-10 11:38:47	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	No	BUY	55	93¢	$51	0xb61d26…
04-10 11:38:19	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	BUY	52	97¢	$51	0xd7cd53…
04-08 04:49:41	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	SELL	66	97¢	$64	0x91bcd7…
04-07 19:02:45	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	BUY	66	98¢	$64	0xc1d1b8…
03-31 17:54:05	Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	SELL	53	96¢	$51	0x4ec34a…
03-31 09:24:49	Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	BUY	53	96¢	$51	0xe2f7c1…
03-30 17:42:03	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	55	96¢	$53	0xc3b1fc…
03-30 12:46:56	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	55	97¢	$54	0x392271…
03-30 04:17:12	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	190	97¢	$185	0xf940bf…
03-30 00:10:02	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	190	98¢	$186	0x36ae95…
03-29 23:25:52	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	SELL	190	97¢	$183	0x9eea1b…
03-29 16:12:04	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0xae7a0e…
03-29 16:12:04	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	44	96¢	$42	0xa13913…
03-29 16:11:26	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	12	96¢	$12	0x2970a2…
03-29 16:10:54	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	126	96¢	$121	0x8ba046…
03-29 15:35:42	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	197	97¢	$191	0xb3b6a9…
03-29 08:29:32	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	197	97¢	$192	0xbad4cc…
03-28 21:08:12	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	194	96¢	$187	0x7a6265…
03-28 16:25:39	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	194	96¢	$187	0xe1478f…
03-28 15:08:35	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	185	98¢	$180	0xf8a3fa…
03-28 10:13:55	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	185	97¢	$180	0x3dd55e…
03-28 03:02:35	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	185	97¢	$179	0x05d258…
03-27 18:11:51	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	185	97¢	$179	0x189604…
03-27 16:27:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	195	97¢	$190	0x90da59…
03-27 07:54:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	195	98¢	$190	0x6c62a4…
03-27 06:55:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	187	96¢	$180	0x02b14f…
03-26 22:32:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	187	96¢	$179	0x20aa18…
03-26 13:30:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	184	97¢	$180	0x2eafb2…
03-26 09:11:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	184	97¢	$179	0xfec853…
03-26 08:34:35	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	SELL	187	96¢	$181	0xdab7c7…
03-26 01:06:09	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	187	96¢	$181	0x34e6fe…
03-26 00:44:41	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	193	95¢	$182	0x9c7a7d…
03-25 18:00:15	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x059bae…
03-25 17:57:33	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	174	96¢	$166	0xb05280…
03-25 17:57:21	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x44c591…
03-25 17:57:21	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	13	96¢	$12	0x17f651…
03-25 08:38:05	Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	197	91¢	$180	0x03de03…
03-25 01:28:37	Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	197	92¢	$180	0x0d8b0f…
03-24 03:40:55	will st johns win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	SELL	194	97¢	$188	0x150e2f…
03-23 16:48:11	will st johns win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	194	98¢	$189	0x64d578…
03-23 06:38:23	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	197	95¢	$188	0x74841e…