Skeletal-Kickoff — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

84.9%

Resolved

Trades

180

lifetime

Volume

$3.47K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-26

last 06-09 23:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

48% 50% +$2

Politics

41% — —

Sports

11% 50% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	10	$381	201	201	+0	Yes	+$2	04-24 15:35
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	11	$289	191	191	+0	open	—	06-07 20:44
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	9	$203	103	103	+0	open	—	06-02 08:19
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$200	104	104	+0	open	—	04-25 05:08
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	7	$188	98	97	+1	open	—	03-28 20:17
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	5	$150	79	79	+0	open	—	05-30 08:25
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	5	$147	167	167	+0	open	—	06-09 17:48
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	3	$130	120	120	+0	open	—	06-08 21:49
israel closes its airspace by june 9	5	$125	65	65	+0	open	—	06-08 23:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	7	$124	132	132	+0	open	—	05-26 03:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$120	102	102	+0	open	—	05-29 06:12
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	8	$120	190	190	+0	open	—	05-27 22:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	3	$109	95	95	+0	open	—	05-29 10:53
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$99	50	50	+0	open	—	04-23 12:32
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	4	$95	157	157	+0	open	—	06-04 08:04
Netanyahu out by April 30?	3	$91	47	47	+0	open	—	03-30 11:37
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$89	47	47	+0	open	—	04-22 05:23
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$89	46	46	+0	No	+$0	04-24 20:18
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	5	$89	46	46	+0	open	—	06-01 08:32
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	3	$88	45	45	+0	open	—	04-11 07:12
Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	4	$79	41	41	+0	open	—	03-27 11:13
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	3	$78	44	44	+0	No	+$0	04-26 04:56
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	6	$62	174	174	+0	open	—	05-15 09:33
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	3	$52	165	165	+0	open	—	05-28 05:31
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	2	$47	24	24	+0	open	—	04-06 21:31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	9	$44	303	303	+0	open	—	05-19 08:02
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	6	$43	102	102	+0	open	—	06-06 13:11
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	5	$41	55	55	+0	open	—	04-03 22:20
Will Alberta join the US?	9	$28	314	314	+0	open	—	06-03 08:10
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	5	$18	67	67	+0	open	—	04-25 09:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 23:41:33	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	134	2¢	$3	0xa06e66…
06-09 20:25:58	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	134	2¢	$3	0xbab138…
06-09 17:48:13	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	115	39¢	$45	0x79fc89…
06-09 13:54:39	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	115	39¢	$45	0x42fea2…
06-08 23:24:25	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	22	96¢	$21	0xae37b0…
06-08 23:24:13	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0xafffc3…
06-08 23:24:13	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	13	96¢	$12	0x80e416…
06-08 21:58:36	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	22	96¢	$21	0xf63a26…
06-08 21:58:36	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	43	96¢	$41	0xb51a1e…
06-08 21:49:21	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	34	54¢	$18	0xd3eaca…
06-08 21:49:21	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	86	54¢	$46	0xaf5d57…
06-08 17:37:43	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	120	54¢	$65	0xa1f9fb…
06-07 20:44:34	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	60	77¢	$46	0xde3951…
06-07 18:53:42	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	19	56¢	$11	0x59d7fa…
06-07 18:53:42	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	41	56¢	$23	0x31f2eb…
06-06 23:49:45	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	28	81¢	$23	0xeb0d5a…
06-06 23:49:42	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	36	81¢	$29	0x7cff05…
06-06 19:38:07	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	41	81¢	$33	0x329097…
06-06 19:38:07	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	23	81¢	$19	0x2b8685…
06-06 13:11:19	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	58	21¢	$12	0x4789ec…
06-06 10:50:33	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	21¢	$6	0xd969ce…
06-06 10:50:33	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	21¢	$6	0xc60d3d…
06-06 06:54:37	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	6	55¢	$3	0x5300fb…
06-06 06:54:33	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	46	55¢	$25	0xde8fb7…
06-06 04:20:36	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	52	55¢	$29	0xb9ef62…
06-04 08:06:21	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	20¢	$0	0x6d7ab8…
06-04 08:04:19	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	39	29¢	$11	0xeb7abc…
06-03 15:45:57	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	37	31¢	$11	0xe7d371…
06-03 15:45:46	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	81	31¢	$25	0xcf849d…
06-03 13:05:13	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	157	30¢	$47	0xa540b3…
06-03 08:10:27	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	16	4¢	$1	0xe4bbec…
06-03 08:10:27	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	45	4¢	$2	0x994d03…
06-03 08:10:27	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	43	4¢	$2	0x969952…
06-03 08:10:27	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	49	4¢	$2	0x654eac…
06-03 04:56:56	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	153	4¢	$7	0xb11429…
06-03 00:47:35	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0xb97b1f…
06-03 00:47:35	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	62	76¢	$47	0x549246…
06-02 21:17:58	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	46	82¢	$37	0xe36c5b…
06-02 21:17:58	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	21	82¢	$17	0x506a14…
06-02 17:02:28	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	22¢	$9	0xecc7eb…
06-02 15:39:31	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	21¢	$9	0x4e9cc6…
06-02 08:19:16	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xeb614f…
06-02 08:19:16	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x8d7dc2…
06-02 08:19:16	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x1bafaf…
06-02 08:19:16	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	41	99¢	$40	0x0cf667…
06-02 05:46:02	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xea4981…
06-01 16:33:27	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	35	98¢	$34	0x95e199…
06-01 16:33:27	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	17	98¢	$17	0x8a9e18…
06-01 12:57:51	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xa3d4df…
06-01 12:57:51	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	38	98¢	$37	0x397d80…
06-01 08:32:44	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xc197c6…
05-31 18:08:45	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	44	4¢	$2	0xa73dda…
05-31 18:08:45	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	84	4¢	$4	0x82c9a0…
05-31 18:08:45	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	33	4¢	$1	0x5102ee…
05-31 15:25:13	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	161	4¢	$7	0xaeda33…
05-31 09:13:15	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	42	97¢	$41	0x795932…
05-31 09:13:15	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x08305d…
05-31 06:03:44	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0x5aded1…
05-31 06:03:44	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x32b0fd…
05-31 03:17:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	87	2¢	$2	0x28a3c8…
05-31 01:30:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	2¢	$1	0xe2be10…
05-31 01:30:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	2¢	$1	0xcc848a…
05-31 01:30:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	2¢	$0	0x4df39c…
05-30 08:25:44	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0x801da5…
05-30 04:59:28	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0xdc5e2c…
05-29 10:53:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	81	57¢	$46	0x2c524d…
05-29 10:53:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	57¢	$8	0x15c606…
05-29 08:24:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	58¢	$55	0x4d917f…
05-29 06:12:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	102	59¢	$60	0x915a8b…
05-29 02:56:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	102	59¢	$60	0xaae11a…
05-28 05:31:27	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	40	21¢	$8	0x5824f3…
05-28 03:30:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	125	20¢	$24	0xf3f1cd…
05-28 01:45:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	165	12¢	$19	0xb20ad6…
05-27 22:00:27	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	50	14¢	$7	0x0610d2…
05-27 22:00:25	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	46	14¢	$6	0x60f35c…
05-27 19:02:58	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	96	12¢	$12	0x0b15eb…
05-26 23:13:28	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	8	81¢	$7	0xd9540f…
05-26 23:13:28	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	43	81¢	$35	0x209d15…
05-26 19:02:13	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	51	81¢	$42	0xb5f732…
05-26 03:17:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	49	98¢	$48	0xf6b8d4…
05-26 01:57:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xa831b2…
05-26 01:57:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	39	98¢	$38	0x043068…
05-25 11:32:23	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	73	2¢	$2	0x3cbd77…
05-25 09:37:30	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	15	3¢	$0	0xd36a0c…
05-25 09:37:30	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x4f59ed…
05-25 09:37:30	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x48e927…
05-25 05:32:18	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	43	14¢	$6	0xd5d369…
05-25 03:31:24	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	43	15¢	$6	0x3b70cc…
05-23 22:22:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	83	19¢	$16	0x299bc0…
05-23 20:51:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	45	16¢	$7	0x0a7b83…
05-23 20:51:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	37	16¢	$6	0xabe97d…
05-23 20:51:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0x4d2321…
05-19 19:32:20	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	37	93¢	$34	0x465352…
05-19 19:32:20	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x4335ab…
05-19 14:50:41	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	47	94¢	$44	0xaf3ace…
05-19 08:02:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	2¢	$1	0x8b9e8c…
05-19 08:02:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	130	2¢	$3	0x322b43…
05-19 04:21:10	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	158	2¢	$4	0x899a03…
05-18 03:56:10	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	104	1¢	$1	0x8050d0…
05-18 02:15:11	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	104	2¢	$2	0xeeda08…