Natural-Dragonfly — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$609

Unrealized P&L

+$33

Hit rate

69.1%

Resolved

671

Trades

25,208

lifetime

Volume

$293.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-01

last 06-30 12:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 50% $-730

Politics

1% 100% +$121

Other

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 556 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes		-417	$-34	0¢	$-1	+$33	06-14 04:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 7AM ET	11	$1.3K	2,193	2,193	+0	open	—	04-30 11:50
ethereum up or down march 27 2026 6pm et	57	$1.2K	1,546	1,528	+18	open	—	03-27 22:54
ethereum up or down june 11 2026 3pm et	23	$1.1K	1,397	1,397	+0	open	—	06-11 19:48
ethereum up or down march 13 4am et	41	$1.1K	1,491	1,486	+5	open	—	03-13 08:47
ethereum up or down march 28 2026 6am et	38	$831	2,907	2,063	+844	open	—	03-28 12:09
ethereum up or down june 11 2026 1pm et	12	$805	887	887	+0	open	—	06-11 17:29
ethereum up or down march 26 2026 3pm et	49	$797	1,348	1,071	+277	open	—	03-26 19:41
ethereum up or down june 8 2026 4pm et	18	$760	903	902	+0	open	—	06-08 20:37
ethereum up or down march 20 2026 9am et	33	$662	945	934	+10	open	—	03-20 13:43
ethereum up or down march 16 2026 4pm et	42	$642	1,073	1,065	+8	open	—	03-16 20:43
Iran leadership change by June 30?	45	$618	6,019	6,436	-417	open	—	06-14 04:15
ethereum up or down june 11 2026 4pm et	13	$611	1,873	0	+1,873	open	—	06-11 20:29
ethereum up or down march 12 12pm et	20	$589	699	694	+5	open	—	03-12 16:45
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET	18	$588	687	687	+0	Down	+$200	05-12 14:48
ethereum up or down march 16 2026 3pm et	36	$587	1,931	1,195	+736	open	—	03-16 19:56
ethereum up or down march 10 10am et	38	$565	786	723	+62	open	—	03-10 14:46
ethereum up or down march 20 2026 4pm et	62	$537	717	709	+8	open	—	03-20 20:54
ethereum up or down march 13 7am et	29	$531	1,302	398	+904	open	—	03-13 11:56
ethereum up or down june 13 2026 6am et	14	$523	552	552	+0	open	—	06-13 10:56
ethereum up or down june 10 2026 4pm et	10	$493	530	530	+0	open	—	06-10 20:23
ethereum up or down march 19 2026 12pm et	33	$487	816	810	+6	open	—	03-19 16:56
ethereum up or down june 17 2026 2pm et	13	$487	1,309	1,245	+65	open	—	06-17 18:53
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 8AM ET	4	$487	928	374	+555	open	—	04-30 12:27
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 5AM ET	16	$485	1,151	1,151	+0	Up	+$145	05-08 09:47
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	8	$480	355	355	+0	open	—	04-30 11:58
ethereum up or down march 27 2026 5pm et	37	$477	635	627	+7	open	—	03-27 21:58
ethereum up or down march 13 3am et	23	$472	751	747	+4	open	—	03-13 07:58
ethereum up or down march 29 2026 2pm et	38	$468	1,136	1,129	+7	open	—	03-29 18:59
ethereum up or down march 19 2026 1pm et	22	$462	699	690	+9	open	—	03-19 17:43
ethereum up or down march 18 2026 4pm et	45	$462	690	682	+7	open	—	03-18 20:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 20:46:19	eth updown 15m 1782852300	Down	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0x563ae8…
06-30 20:45:01	eth updown 5m 1782852300	Down	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0xf01174…
06-30 20:41:26	eth updown 5m 1782852000	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x5891d4…
06-30 12:09:05	ethereum up or down june 30 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	127	28¢	$35	0xfcc0c7…
06-30 12:08:50	eth updown 5m 1782821100	Up	SELL	62	16¢	$10	0x496b83…
06-30 12:04:52	eth updown 5m 1782821100	Up	BUY	62	56¢	$35	0x848c16…
06-30 12:00:35	eth updown 5m 1782820800	Up	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xe615fa…
06-30 12:00:14	eth updown 5m 1782820800	Up	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xf86b93…
06-30 11:55:37	btc updown 5m 1782820500	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x1f9c1d…
06-30 11:55:31	btc updown 5m 1782820500	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x906f3d…
06-30 11:52:20	eth updown 5m 1782820200	Up	SELL	31	90¢	$28	0xa51ae1…
06-30 11:49:47	eth updown 5m 1782820200	Up	BUY	31	52¢	$16	0xa7eb46…
06-30 11:48:56	eth updown 5m 1782819900	Up	SELL	28	87¢	$25	0xf81a30…
06-30 11:44:55	eth updown 5m 1782819900	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x756edd…
06-30 11:44:34	eth updown 5m 1782819900	Up	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xe2554f…
06-30 11:41:59	eth updown 5m 1782819600	Down	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x0c355f…
06-30 11:39:38	eth updown 5m 1782819600	Down	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x29407a…
06-30 11:09:10	eth updown 15m 1782817200	Down	SELL	50	46¢	$23	0xe46107…
06-30 11:04:53	eth updown 15m 1782817200	Down	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x186792…
06-30 11:03:28	eth updown 15m 1782817200	Down	BUY	40	38¢	$15	0xe60d3c…
06-30 11:02:47	eth updown 5m 1782817200	Up	SELL	30	75¢	$22	0x743217…
06-30 11:00:16	eth updown 5m 1782817200	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xbca7f5…
06-30 11:00:16	eth updown 5m 1782817200	Up	BUY	11	50¢	$5	0x70bc16…
06-30 11:00:16	eth updown 5m 1782817200	Up	BUY	1	50¢	$0	0x37a655…
06-30 11:00:16	eth updown 5m 1782817200	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x0974bf…
06-30 11:00:10	eth updown 5m 1782817200	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x31dcd7…
06-30 10:56:44	eth updown 5m 1782816900	Down	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0xf75310…
06-30 10:54:01	eth updown 15m 1782816300	Down	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xaacc6a…
06-30 10:52:46	eth updown 15m 1782816300	Down	BUY	30	40¢	$12	0x0d344b…
06-30 10:47:26	eth updown 15m 1782816300	Up	SELL	50	74¢	$37	0xb315be…
06-30 10:45:43	eth updown 15m 1782816300	Up	BUY	28	40¢	$11	0xe02387…
06-30 10:45:43	eth updown 15m 1782816300	Up	BUY	17	40¢	$7	0xb217d2…
06-30 10:45:43	eth updown 15m 1782816300	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xaa8cd6…
06-30 10:44:47	eth updown 15m 1782815400	Down	SELL	32	2¢	$1	0x6748f7…
06-30 10:40:49	eth updown 15m 1782815400	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x676f40…
06-30 10:40:35	eth updown 15m 1782815400	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x7e695a…
06-30 10:38:02	eth updown 15m 1782815400	Down	SELL	46	76¢	$35	0x573d52…
06-30 10:37:26	eth updown 15m 1782815400	Down	SELL	5	69¢	$3	0xfea65d…
06-30 10:34:23	eth updown 15m 1782815400	Down	BUY	30	42¢	$13	0x79893b…
06-30 10:33:20	eth updown 15m 1782815400	Down	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x7a9e04…
06-30 10:33:16	eth updown 15m 1782815400	Down	BUY	1	45¢	$0	0x8bf13c…
06-30 08:32:04	eth updown 15m 1782808200	Up	BUY	40	27¢	$11	0xb9f6ed…
06-30 08:10:29	eth updown 5m 1782807000	Down	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0xdc05c8…
06-30 08:10:11	eth updown 5m 1782807000	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xb17337…
06-30 08:10:11	eth updown 5m 1782807000	Down	BUY	14	48¢	$7	0x1f1118…
06-30 08:09:31	eth updown 15m 1782806400	Down	SELL	148	66¢	$98	0xf4092e…
06-30 08:05:32	eth updown 15m 1782806400	Down	BUY	88	23¢	$20	0xe236de…
06-30 08:02:37	eth updown 15m 1782806400	Down	BUY	60	41¢	$25	0xd95480…
06-30 06:51:02	eth updown 15m 1782801900	Down	BUY	62	24¢	$15	0xa54344…
06-30 06:41:25	eth updown 5m 1782801600	Up	BUY	48	31¢	$15	0x3ff096…
06-30 06:32:37	eth updown 15m 1782801000	Up	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x134773…
06-30 06:32:23	eth updown 5m 1782801000	Up	SELL	39	11¢	$4	0x83ec8d…
06-30 06:29:43	eth updown 5m 1782801000	Up	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0xb8748a…
06-29 18:41:20	eth updown 5m 1782758400	Down	BUY	22	37¢	$8	0x1f6429…
06-29 18:40:56	eth updown 15m 1782757800	Down	SELL	569	1¢	$6	0x7cb8c3…
06-29 18:34:37	eth updown 15m 1782757800	Down	BUY	145	28¢	$40	0xb6ec1c…
06-29 18:34:20	eth updown 5m 1782757800	Down	SELL	112	1¢	$1	0x4cf552…
06-29 18:32:22	eth updown 15m 1782757800	Down	BUY	320	31¢	$100	0x830610…
06-29 18:29:53	eth updown 5m 1782757800	Down	BUY	51	47¢	$24	0x041ed1…
06-29 18:29:01	eth updown 5m 1782757800	Down	BUY	61	49¢	$30	0xfde390…
06-29 18:28:16	eth updown 15m 1782757800	Down	BUY	104	49¢	$51	0x7562d6…
06-29 18:27:35	eth updown 5m 1782757500	Up	SELL	22	2¢	$0	0x046455…
06-29 18:26:31	eth updown 5m 1782757500	Up	BUY	22	27¢	$6	0x18a8a2…
06-29 18:26:07	eth updown 5m 1782757500	Down	SELL	53	76¢	$40	0xb4ab88…
06-29 18:24:49	eth updown 5m 1782757500	Down	BUY	53	51¢	$27	0x38c524…
06-29 18:24:25	eth updown 5m 1782757200	Down	SELL	57	41¢	$24	0x2098c9…
06-29 18:22:14	eth updown 5m 1782757200	Down	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x9b7f9a…
06-29 18:21:55	eth updown 5m 1782757200	Down	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x4bc096…
06-29 18:14:28	eth updown 5m 1782756600	Down	SELL	121	1¢	$1	0x96a2ae…
06-29 18:11:49	eth updown 5m 1782756600	Down	BUY	48	41¢	$20	0x0e25ab…
06-29 18:11:04	eth updown 5m 1782756600	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xce47d5…
06-29 18:10:53	eth updown 5m 1782756600	Down	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xd519b1…
06-29 18:10:04	eth updown 5m 1782756600	Down	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0x92a4ca…
06-29 18:09:35	eth updown 5m 1782756300	Down	SELL	44	46¢	$20	0x521d27…
06-29 18:05:19	eth updown 5m 1782756300	Down	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xe0fca7…
06-29 18:04:44	eth updown 5m 1782756300	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x46c882…
06-29 18:04:13	eth updown 5m 1782756000	Down	SELL	49	93¢	$46	0xa76061…
06-29 17:59:14	eth updown 5m 1782756000	Down	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xd279de…
06-29 17:58:37	eth updown 15m 1782755100	Down	SELL	52	97¢	$50	0x1459e0…
06-29 17:51:37	eth updown 15m 1782755100	Down	BUY	13	60¢	$8	0x38d6fd…
06-29 17:49:44	eth updown 5m 1782755100	Down	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x15aed8…
06-29 17:45:05	eth updown 5m 1782755100	Down	BUY	74	54¢	$40	0xec9cff…
06-29 17:44:52	eth updown 15m 1782755100	Down	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x1ca63a…
06-29 17:43:53	eth updown 15m 1782754200	Down	BUY	13	63¢	$8	0x6d2a9e…
06-29 17:40:53	eth updown 5m 1782754800	Down	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xdf9d66…
06-29 17:40:16	eth updown 5m 1782754800	Down	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xc7f2f7…
06-29 17:39:59	eth updown 5m 1782754800	Down	BUY	33	52¢	$17	0x755a42…
06-29 17:39:34	eth updown 5m 1782754500	Down	SELL	56	69¢	$38	0xbf395d…
06-29 17:36:17	eth updown 5m 1782754500	Down	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xc52055…
06-29 17:35:35	eth updown 5m 1782754500	Down	BUY	16	44¢	$7	0x51849d…
06-29 17:34:26	eth updown 5m 1782754200	Down	SELL	97	88¢	$85	0xbd7921…
06-29 17:30:47	eth updown 5m 1782754200	Down	BUY	69	36¢	$25	0x59f035…
06-29 17:29:29	eth updown 5m 1782754200	Down	BUY	27	51¢	$14	0x1cd01d…
06-29 17:25:17	eth updown 5m 1782753900	Down	BUY	34	47¢	$16	0xa0b74b…
06-29 17:12:55	ethereum up or down june 29 2026 1pm et	Down	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x19d5d4…
06-29 17:10:29	eth updown 5m 1782753000	Down	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xf016b8…
06-29 17:09:49	eth updown 5m 1782753000	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xdaee71…
06-29 17:09:02	ethereum up or down june 29 2026 1pm et	Down	BUY	96	26¢	$25	0xeb7986…
06-29 17:05:49	ethereum up or down june 29 2026 1pm et	Down	BUY	93	19¢	$18	0xa122a6…
06-29 17:05:07	ethereum up or down june 29 2026 1pm et	Down	BUY	147	34¢	$50	0x7b124c…