Natural-Dragonfly — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18.5K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

66.4%

Resolved

10,628

Trades

40,290

lifetime

Volume

$466.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-01

last 10-22 16:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 238 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 48% -$18,067

Politics

2% 32% -$289

Other

0% 8% -$26

Sports

0% 25% -$165

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

64 active days in 12wk • peak 362 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran leadership change by June 30?	168	$6.2K	28,454	28,454	+0	No	-$286	06-14 04:15
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	54	$1.4K	2,966	2,966	+0	open	—	10-21 08:32
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	44	$1.3K	3,502	3,502	+0	open	—	08-24 15:12
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 7AM ET	11	$1.3K	2,193	2,193	+0	Down	+$447	04-30 11:50
ethereum up or down march 27 2026 6pm et	57	$1.2K	1,546	1,528	+18	Down	+$100	03-27 22:54
ethereum up or down june 11 2026 3pm et	23	$1.1K	1,397	1,397	+0	Down	+$227	06-11 19:48
ethereum up or down march 13 4am et	41	$1.1K	1,491	1,486	+5	Up	+$244	03-13 08:47
ethereum up or down march 28 2026 6am et	38	$831	2,907	2,063	+844	Down	-$199	03-28 12:09
ethereum up or down july 17 2026 5pm et	23	$809	815	815	+0	Down	+$259	07-17 21:59
ethereum up or down june 11 2026 1pm et	12	$805	887	887	+0	Up	+$305	06-11 17:29
ethereum up or down march 26 2026 3pm et	49	$797	1,348	1,071	+277	Up	-$66	03-26 19:41
ethereum up or down june 8 2026 4pm et	18	$760	903	902	+0	Up	+$149	06-08 20:37
ethereum up or down july 21 2026 2pm et	13	$740	874	655	+220	Up	+$88	07-21 18:54
ethereum up or down march 20 2026 9am et	33	$662	945	934	+10	Down	+$67	03-20 13:43
ethereum up or down march 16 2026 4pm et	42	$642	1,073	1,065	+8	Up	+$1	03-16 20:43
bitcoin up or down july 22 2026 4pm et	7	$640	522	522	+0	Down	+$240	07-22 21:00
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 19:00 UTC	16	$627	451	451	+0	Up	+$177	07-21 19:04
ethereum up or down june 11 2026 4pm et	13	$611	1,873	0	+1,873	Down	-$611	06-11 20:29
ethereum up or down march 12 12pm et	20	$589	699	694	+5	Down	+$68	03-12 16:45
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET	18	$588	687	687	+0	Down	+$200	05-12 14:48
ethereum up or down march 16 2026 3pm et	36	$587	1,931	1,195	+736	Up	+$54	03-16 19:56
Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	3	$581	384	384	+0	Down	+$181	07-21 19:35
ethereum up or down march 10 10am et	38	$565	786	723	+62	Up	-$3	03-10 14:46
ethereum up or down july 18 2026 3pm et	23	$553	686	567	+119	Up	+$53	07-18 19:35
ethereum up or down march 20 2026 4pm et	62	$537	717	709	+8	Up	+$58	03-20 20:54
ethereum up or down march 13 7am et	29	$531	1,302	398	+904	Down	-$47	03-13 11:56
ethereum up or down june 13 2026 6am et	14	$523	552	552	+0	Up	+$117	06-13 10:56
ethereum up or down june 10 2026 4pm et	10	$493	530	530	+0	Up	+$113	06-10 20:23
ethereum up or down march 19 2026 12pm et	33	$487	816	810	+6	Down	+$73	03-19 16:56
ethereum up or down june 17 2026 2pm et	13	$487	1,309	1,245	+65	Down	+$217	06-17 18:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 16:32:32	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0xadaa02…
10-22 16:29:38	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x73a62b…
10-22 12:18:51	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x96d193…
10-22 12:18:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0xdc9ae2…
10-22 12:14:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xcd5bee…
10-22 10:01:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x1f8764…
10-22 09:54:23	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xd93817…
10-22 09:49:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xdae961…
10-21 20:00:51	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	19	21¢	$4	0x9214ec…
10-21 19:59:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x764fbe…
10-21 19:58:45	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3PM ET	Down	SELL	26	37¢	$10	0xd11a8f…
10-21 19:32:30	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0x25f974…
10-21 19:31:53	Will the Democratic Party win the MN-05 House seat?	No	SELL	54	6¢	$3	0x7258a8…
10-21 19:28:23	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	15	46¢	$7	0x95f614…
10-21 19:27:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xbe75a1…
10-21 19:25:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x99966e…
10-21 19:24:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xb51f51…
10-21 19:23:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x36fe98…
10-21 19:14:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0xb977d0…
10-21 19:13:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x906ab0…
10-21 19:09:00	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x1febad…
10-21 19:01:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xff6528…
10-21 19:01:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	18	50¢	$9	0xd946e9…
10-21 18:16:47	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x138d15…
10-21 18:15:45	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xbdab11…
10-21 18:15:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x9136ab…
10-21 18:09:38	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xc99eac…
10-21 18:09:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x8d3e6b…
10-21 18:08:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	SELL	12	89¢	$11	0xd511fb…
10-21 18:04:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x0679be…
10-21 18:04:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x706578…
10-21 18:02:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	15	48¢	$7	0x74075a…
10-21 17:59:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x632719…
10-21 17:59:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x6dd766…
10-21 17:59:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	SELL	7	65¢	$4	0xd99462…
10-21 17:55:30	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	14	29¢	$4	0x82a1bc…
10-21 17:51:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x0f7b9b…
10-21 17:50:54	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xae8562…
10-21 17:50:24	Will the Democratic Party win the MN-05 House seat?	No	BUY	32	6¢	$2	0x1b9d25…
10-21 17:49:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	SELL	21	93¢	$20	0x2f5505…
10-21 17:47:11	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x2a5c4b…
10-21 17:45:47	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xd77e78…
10-21 17:44:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	SELL	18	87¢	$16	0x487c1c…
10-21 17:43:45	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	18	39¢	$7	0x6191cf…
10-21 17:35:11	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xe8b42c…
10-21 17:33:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x79fac0…
10-21 17:29:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xc39203…
10-21 17:29:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xa602be…
10-21 17:24:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xa8a5e6…
10-21 17:24:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x628f4f…
10-21 17:19:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x1a18e8…
10-21 17:16:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0x20b99d…
10-21 17:14:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xfacb68…
10-21 16:39:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xd125b6…
10-21 16:39:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	SELL	6	94¢	$5	0x676378…
10-21 16:39:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	SELL	7	94¢	$7	0x11c05a…
10-21 16:37:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x404c36…
10-21 16:37:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x16a99a…
10-21 16:34:54	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x047adf…
10-21 16:32:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xb680e7…
10-21 16:30:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	37¢	$4	0x42dd97…
10-21 16:28:26	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x414291…
10-21 16:27:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	SELL	24	82¢	$19	0x886576…
10-21 16:24:54	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0xcf56ca…
10-21 16:23:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0xc84ca1…
10-21 16:20:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xfcaa2f…
10-21 16:20:23	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xd3c3f7…
10-21 16:20:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xe24272…
10-21 16:15:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x11dcc0…
10-21 16:14:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xc3375d…
10-21 16:12:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0xb725d3…
10-21 16:11:32	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	SELL	16	86¢	$14	0xcbb23e…
10-21 16:09:26	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x569630…
10-21 16:09:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x46df37…
10-21 16:08:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0x5d0066…
10-21 16:06:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xb6d067…
10-21 16:05:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xbedc63…
10-21 15:58:45	Will the Democratic Party win the MN-05 House seat?	No	SELL	337	6¢	$20	0xe98299…
10-21 13:18:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	32¢	$1	0x60da9b…
10-21 13:05:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	23	3¢	$1	0x741e17…
10-21 13:04:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x5f3c1f…
10-21 13:01:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xe45c4e…
10-21 13:01:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0x72244f…
10-21 13:01:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	SELL	9	94¢	$8	0xec8123…
10-21 12:59:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x0af9c7…
10-21 12:51:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	47	30¢	$14	0x4e06f3…
10-21 12:34:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0x0c00e9…
10-21 12:10:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	17	40¢	$7	0x05407e…
10-21 11:55:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x808bb2…
10-21 10:37:45	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	11	26¢	$3	0x46a8e2…
10-21 09:14:05	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-21 09:10 UTC	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xdba546…
10-21 09:14:05	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-21 09:10 UTC	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x7c9ff3…
10-21 09:12:02	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-21 09:10 UTC	Up	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x3addb8…
10-21 09:01:20	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-21 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0xf0a88e…
10-21 08:54:35	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-21 08:55 UTC	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x6be5cc…
10-21 08:32:54	Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	36	24¢	$9	0x8e152f…
10-21 08:14:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xe17d2d…
10-21 08:11:26	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xab3706…
10-21 06:14:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x2e9792…
10-21 06:11:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0x2f9265…