Natural-Dragonfly — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$9

Unrealized P&L

+$13

Hit rate

33.1%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$834

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$71

1 position

First seen

2026-05-04

last 05-05 18:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

90% 43% $-9

Politics

10% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 70 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes		-526	$-84	14¢	$-71	+$13	05-05 13:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran leadership change by June 30?	2	$84	0	526	-526	open	—	05-05 13:10
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	3	$70	66	71	-5	open	—	05-05 17:24
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	3	$59	59	59	-0	open	—	05-05 15:27
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	1	$40	0	85	-85	open	—	05-05 15:09
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11AM ET	2	$40	101	0	+101	open	—	05-05 15:14
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	2	$32	49	120	-71	open	—	05-05 14:57
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	2	$30	142	0	+142	open	—	05-05 15:54
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	1	$29	53	0	+53	open	—	05-05 17:14
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4PM ET	1	$26	90	0	+90	Down	$-26	05-04 20:24
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	3	$25	77	185	-108	open	—	05-05 17:42
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1PM ET	1	$20	56	0	+56	open	—	05-05 17:09
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	1	$20	37	0	+37	open	—	05-05 16:14
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	1	$20	39	0	+39	open	—	05-05 14:54
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	1	$20	35	0	+35	open	—	05-05 18:14
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	1	$16	0	29	-29	open	—	05-05 18:36
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 8AM ET	2	$15	273	0	+273	open	—	05-05 12:41
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	1	$14	0	25	-25	open	—	05-05 09:21
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	3	$14	32	72	-40	open	—	05-05 18:43
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	1	$13	0	18	-18	open	—	05-05 07:46
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	2	$13	45	0	+45	open	—	05-05 12:26
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	1	$12	0	18	-18	open	—	05-05 10:06
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	1	$11	22	0	+22	open	—	05-05 15:59
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	Up	+$10	05-04 20:19
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	1	$10	19	0	+19	open	—	05-05 15:29
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	1	$10	27	0	+27	open	—	05-05 13:20
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	1	$10	19	0	+19	open	—	05-05 16:24
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	1	$10	27	0	+27	open	—	05-05 10:46
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	2	$10	24	0	+24	open	—	05-05 17:07
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	1	$8	197	0	+197	open	—	05-05 15:12
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	2	$8	29	52	-23	Down	$-2	05-04 20:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-05 18:43:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	SELL	72	5¢	$4	0x0de8f7…
05-05 18:36:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	SELL	29	56¢	$16	0x764d68…
05-05 18:32:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x7347a7…
05-05 18:31:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xe71f71…
05-05 18:21:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x63a00b…
05-05 18:14:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x8569b0…
05-05 18:14:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0xe44621…
05-05 18:08:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x235e53…
05-05 17:44:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xc54675…
05-05 17:42:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	SELL	68	2¢	$1	0xb7da0f…
05-05 17:42:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	SELL	117	3¢	$3	0x86d71b…
05-05 17:32:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	77	26¢	$20	0x742219…
05-05 17:32:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	SELL	84	4¢	$3	0xfe8391…
05-05 17:24:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	SELL	71	71¢	$50	0x753d9f…
05-05 17:19:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x46df37…
05-05 17:19:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x6aafbd…
05-05 17:14:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	53	55¢	$29	0x83d258…
05-05 17:09:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	56	36¢	$20	0x948857…
05-05 17:07:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xd530d2…
05-05 17:07:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xc66220…
05-05 16:57:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x42248a…
05-05 16:54:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12PM ET	Up	SELL	150	0¢	$0	0x0f8561…
05-05 16:24:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x368109…
05-05 16:24:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xe9e6eb…
05-05 16:14:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x03714b…
05-05 15:59:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	22	50¢	$11	0x8d271c…
05-05 15:54:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	120	17¢	$20	0xfc2c23…
05-05 15:47:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x480888…
05-05 15:29:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x004939…
05-05 15:27:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	SELL	59	55¢	$32	0xc1255c…
05-05 15:24:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xfff065…
05-05 15:24:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	37	46¢	$17	0x4bd589…
05-05 15:14:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	11	52¢	$6	0x29717a…
05-05 15:14:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x1fbf5d…
05-05 15:12:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	197	4¢	$8	0x306695…
05-05 15:09:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	SELL	85	47¢	$40	0x8b6cb1…
05-05 15:02:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	71	42¢	$30	0x57c7c7…
05-05 14:57:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	SELL	120	18¢	$22	0x311c0a…
05-05 14:54:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	49	20¢	$10	0x3c6bf8…
05-05 14:54:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0x6ea664…
05-05 14:49:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	SELL	44	2¢	$1	0x170bdd…
05-05 13:26:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	32	16¢	$5	0x82c76a…
05-05 13:20:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x0085a5…
05-05 13:15:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xa9024a…
05-05 13:11:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x97a919…
05-05 13:10:26	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	394	16¢	$63	0xcc824d…
05-05 13:02:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	SELL	29	1¢	$0	0xa7b2ea…
05-05 13:00:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x1bddda…
05-05 12:45:26	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	131	16¢	$21	0x2c7ac0…
05-05 12:41:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	217	5¢	$10	0x369a7e…
05-05 12:40:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x5ca47f…
05-05 12:32:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x77d244…
05-05 12:26:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x4196e2…
05-05 12:25:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xe90537…
05-05 12:16:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x69e620…
05-05 12:05:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x79bb04…
05-05 11:56:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x12e4dd…
05-05 10:55:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x02f142…
05-05 10:46:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0xfe2796…
05-05 10:41:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xab165d…
05-05 10:36:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xf0f2b3…
05-05 10:35:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	115	4¢	$5	0xd52494…
05-05 10:15:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xc6b024…
05-05 10:06:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Up	SELL	18	68¢	$12	0x71ac0c…
05-05 09:21:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	SELL	25	58¢	$14	0xd57bee…
05-05 07:46:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	SELL	18	74¢	$13	0xebfa3a…
05-05 06:40:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0x286c56…
05-05 06:25:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x1c9fa4…
05-05 06:10:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	52	10¢	$5	0x22cb39…
05-05 05:55:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xe055e1…
05-04 20:29:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	17	38¢	$7	0x4e490c…
05-04 20:24:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	90	29¢	$26	0x44cc50…
05-04 20:19:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xb42fdd…
05-04 20:04:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x711630…
05-04 20:04:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	SELL	52	5¢	$3	0x9b4b4e…
05-04 20:01:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xa968cc…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	48	$1.10K	225	05-05 18:44
Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4	38	$2.95K	157	05-05 18:44
Agile-Spacing 0xce25…7fdc	37	$2.22K	161	05-05 18:44
(anonymous) 0xe907…cff6	32	$1.10K	57	05-05 18:36
(anonymous) 0x75cc…3ce1	32	$542	88	05-05 18:43
Good-Natured-Angora 0x6748…ee08	31	$510	113	05-05 18:37
(anonymous) 0x20d2…e29d	23	$579	66	05-05 18:43
Exalted-Mattress 0xa8cc…41a9	19	$514	71	05-05 18:43