Curly-Pain — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.13K

Unrealized P&L

-$29

Hit rate

69.8%

Resolved

2,349

Trades

2,724

lifetime

Volume

$16.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-29

last 10-18 07:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 80 days

Categories

Crypto

73% 78% +$23

Other

17% 42% -$151

Sports

9% 35% -$993

Politics

1% 50% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Yes		+123	$34	4¢	$5	-$29	10-06 07:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	31	$356	10,201	8,678	+1,523	No	-$85	04-24 09:23
Will there be 50 or more West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	21	$317	652	328	+324	open	—	10-08 06:11
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by December 31, 2026?	11	$310	369	329	+40	open	—	10-07 18:45
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	15	$239	307	307	+0	Yes	+$9	10-18 07:14
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?	20	$212	322	250	+72	No	-$82	04-18 19:03
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of October 2026?	4	$176	342	72	+270	open	—	10-06 13:07
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of October 2026?	7	$140	161	99	+62	open	—	10-07 13:51
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Maduro" this week?	4	$99	239	0	+239	No	-$49	05-01 01:24
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	5	$85	127	62	+65	Yes	+$20	10-08 03:41
Will Iran target Kuwait by October 31, 2026?	4	$84	60	60	+0	No	+$1	10-10 14:05
will the iea ask france to release oil stocks by october 31	4	$79	181	0	+181	No	-$51	10-05 08:54
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Elon" or "Musk" this week?	8	$75	156	0	+156	No	-$15	04-28 03:02
Will Simon peak at Category 4?	4	$72	70	70	+0	Yes	+$3	10-09 12:04
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Russia" this week?	2	$50	108	0	+108	No	+$6	05-01 04:30
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Strait of Hormuz", "Strait", or "Hormuz" this week?	2	$50	110	0	+110	No	+$60	05-01 01:22
Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	1	$49	56	0	+56	open	—	10-06 18:52
Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	6	$49	56	56	+0	open	—	10-07 11:06
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 51.0 and 51.9 in October?	3	$45	59	20	+39	No	-$8	10-18 07:12
nba cle lal 2026 03 31	7	$39	1,406	0	+1,406	Lakers	-$10	04-01 04:36
Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026?	3	$39	40	20	+20	No	-$7	10-18 07:12
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Oil" this week?	4	$37	65	0	+65	Yes	-$17	04-28 10:54
nhl ott fla 2026 03 31	12	$35	3,470	0	+3,470	Panthers	-$35	04-01 01:43
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	1	$34	123	0	+123	open	—	10-06 07:27
Will three people dissent the October Fed decision?	2	$32	20	20	+0	No	+$0	10-14 13:11
Will Microsoft launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?	3	$31	20	20	+0	open	—	10-13 18:21
nhl nyi buf 2026 03 31	5	$29	423	0	+423	Sabres	-$20	04-01 01:48
AWS service disrupted by November 30?	2	$29	39	0	+39	open	—	10-09 06:59
Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31?	2	$28	50	50	+0	Yes	+$1	10-12 04:45
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	2	$26	20	20	+0	open	—	10-18 07:13
Will Blackstone (BX) beat quarterly earnings?	2	$26	20	20	+0	No	+$1	10-18 07:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-18 07:14:44	Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	Yes	SELL	86	87¢	$76	0x38a4a5…
10-18 07:14:14	Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%?	No	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0xc612fd…
10-18 07:13:24	Will Blackstone (BX) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0xd12152…
10-18 07:13:03	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x9b13d2…
10-18 07:12:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0xee24e3…
10-18 07:12:26	Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x48b306…
10-18 07:12:06	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 51.0 and 51.9 in October?	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0xb710ca…
10-15 01:10:07	Will the median home value in the US be between $403,000 and $407,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x9931ae…
10-14 22:04:45	will google googl q3 search other revenue be above 20261008120050000 68b	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xf7951e…
10-14 15:04:04	Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD?	No	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x626760…
10-14 13:11:11	Will three people dissent the October Fed decision?	No	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0x1bf59a…
10-13 18:32:52	Procter & Gamble (PG) Q1 organic sales growth 1.5% to 2.5%?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x6d067f…
10-13 18:21:31	Will Microsoft launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?	No	SELL	14	78¢	$11	0x712aa5…
10-13 18:21:16	Will Microsoft launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?	No	SELL	6	78¢	$5	0x5a165d…
10-12 22:35:23	Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xe1360c…
10-12 20:34:09	will wti dip to 90 in october 2026 from october 12	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x459643…
10-12 10:46:18	Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Yes	BUY	38	30¢	$11	0x4f862a…
10-12 04:45:02	Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31?	No	SELL	50	28¢	$14	0x945216…
10-12 02:03:36	Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31?	No	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0xdfef10…
10-11 21:54:11	Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	No	SELL	108	22¢	$24	0x8e9362…
10-11 13:46:39	Will Marvin Harrison Jr.'s next team be the Las Vegas Raiders?	Yes	BUY	4	22¢	$1	0xf3de31…
10-11 13:46:37	Will Marvin Harrison Jr.'s next team be the Las Vegas Raiders?	Yes	BUY	16	22¢	$4	0x927d77…
10-11 01:40:12	Will the median home value in the US be between $403,000 and $407,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xd84ba2…
10-10 17:57:48	Will Blackstone (BX) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x013f81…
10-10 17:34:39	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x1578b7…
10-10 17:03:37	Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $313,000 and $318,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x90a79c…
10-10 16:03:55	Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x0200cd…
10-10 15:10:34	Will three people dissent the October Fed decision?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x08f8a7…
10-10 14:23:34	Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	No	SELL	113	22¢	$25	0xdab6e8…
10-10 14:05:39	Will Iran target Kuwait by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	60	71¢	$43	0xac3fdc…
10-10 09:34:25	Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%?	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0xb9cca6…
10-09 15:37:07	Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xecabb4…
10-09 15:23:16	Will the median home value in NYC be between $445,000 and $458,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x7b5471…
10-09 14:14:27	Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x73a929…
10-09 12:41:28	Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x31f37d…
10-09 12:04:34	Will Simon peak at Category 4?	No	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0x317a09…
10-09 11:36:58	Will a team from Americas win VALORANT Champions 2026?	No	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x2152c9…
10-09 11:12:25	Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x970278…
10-09 11:08:00	Will one person dissent the December Fed decision?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x25e53a…
10-09 09:50:40	Will Iran target Kuwait by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xe5c944…
10-09 09:12:52	Will Simon peak at Category 3?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x06d8ae…
10-09 09:06:13	Will Simon peak at Category 3?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0xe4821f…
10-09 09:05:06	Will Simon peak at Category 3?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x60750a…
10-09 08:48:54	Will Iran target Kuwait by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xbaf60b…
10-09 08:48:37	Will Simon peak at Category 4?	Yes	SELL	50	58¢	$29	0x8f53e0…
10-09 08:48:37	Will Simon peak at Category 4?	No	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x8f53e0…
10-09 08:33:00	Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xb81a1a…
10-09 08:18:55	Will the median home value in NYC be between $471,000 and $484,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x601892…
10-09 06:59:16	AWS service disrupted by November 30?	Yes	BUY	19	77¢	$14	0xc9db8c…
10-09 05:29:56	Will Simon peak at Category 4?	Yes	BUY	50	53¢	$26	0x44ade8…
10-09 05:04:30	Will one person dissent the December Fed decision?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xa72501…
10-09 03:57:02	Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xb9df38…
10-09 03:06:41	Will Isaias peak at Category 3?	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xf3b42a…
10-09 03:06:23	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x2882f0…
10-09 03:04:45	AWS service disrupted by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x6880fb…
10-09 02:50:54	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 51.0 and 51.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	39	23¢	$9	0xbc1f92…
10-09 02:12:12	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xc78817…
10-09 02:06:32	will microsoft launch a muse like personal agent before 2027	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x4f6003…
10-09 01:24:27	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 51.0 and 51.9 in October?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x06a845…
10-09 00:10:50	Will Iran target Kuwait by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x17021e…
10-08 06:11:31	Will there be 50 or more West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	30¢	$26	0x4629aa…
10-08 03:41:52	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	62	33¢	$20	0x827b77…
10-08 03:41:52	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x2ab428…
10-08 03:41:35	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0xfeb1b4…
10-08 03:41:35	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0x5705b9…
10-07 20:31:35	Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	Yes	BUY	17	84¢	$14	0x1c0fd9…
10-07 18:45:36	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	96	40¢	$38	0x086142…
10-07 18:44:57	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x32dba2…
10-07 18:21:16	Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xcf736f…
10-07 13:51:32	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0xb1e24c…
10-07 11:06:36	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	36	44¢	$16	0x188013…
10-07 04:38:44	Will there be 50 or more West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xb78f76…
10-07 04:29:05	Will there be 50 or more West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0xb69780…
10-07 03:25:59	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0x64fd83…
10-06 22:26:00	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0x8e8efe…
10-06 20:35:09	lula x flavio bolsonaro debate before second round	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xdec67e…
10-06 20:21:21	lula x flavio bolsonaro debate before second round	No	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xb78cb6…
10-06 20:21:03	lula x flavio bolsonaro debate before second round	No	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x9527f5…
10-06 20:21:02	lula x flavio bolsonaro debate before second round	No	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xff4443…
10-06 20:21:02	lula x flavio bolsonaro debate before second round	No	BUY	60	21¢	$13	0xec203e…
10-06 20:21:02	lula x flavio bolsonaro debate before second round	No	BUY	21	21¢	$4	0xaa4191…
10-06 20:21:02	lula x flavio bolsonaro debate before second round	No	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x70652d…
10-06 20:21:02	lula x flavio bolsonaro debate before second round	No	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x634623…
10-06 20:21:02	lula x flavio bolsonaro debate before second round	No	BUY	40	21¢	$8	0x327734…
10-06 19:59:38	lula x flavio bolsonaro debate before second round	Yes	BUY	43	77¢	$33	0x0a9325…
10-06 19:29:42	Will there be 50 or more West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	32¢	$15	0x6e30e0…
10-06 19:28:14	Will there be 50 or more West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xd1390b…
10-06 19:27:59	Will there be 50 or more West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	32¢	$16	0x5d27fd…
10-06 19:27:54	Will there be 50 or more West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x6597ea…
10-06 19:27:50	Will there be 50 or more West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	32¢	$7	0x41e6fb…
10-06 18:52:14	Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	No	BUY	56	88¢	$49	0x7f517d…
10-06 13:07:48	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of October 2026?	No	BUY	185	27¢	$50	0x39e957…
10-06 13:02:45	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xd2e3d2…
10-06 10:45:52	Will there be 50 or more West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	Yes	SELL	89	34¢	$30	0x0cb933…
10-06 08:17:22	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	40¢	$5	0xa45b94…
10-06 07:27:45	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	123	28¢	$34	0x2e4b78…
10-06 02:00:38	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x41e80f…
10-06 01:58:19	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	16	44¢	$7	0x44273a…
10-05 22:58:19	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x437be7…
10-05 21:24:23	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x8dad7b…