Last-Deviation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$262

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

98.3%

Resolved

161

Trades

3,106

lifetime

Volume

$9.08K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-15

last 09-26 07:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 56 days

Categories

Other

98% 90% +$261

Politics

2% 86% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 79 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	154	$589	601	0	+601	Yes	+$12	07-18 18:41
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the September interest rate announcement?	88	$503	505	0	+505	Yes	+$1	09-02 12:28
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	139	$388	396	0	+396	Yes	+$7	09-16 18:19
Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	28	$365	367	0	+367	No	+$2	09-10 11:11
Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	34	$361	362	0	+362	Yes	+$1	09-23 08:05
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	84	$348	349	0	+349	No	+$1	08-10 15:55
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	38	$341	366	0	+366	Yes	+$25	07-18 20:03
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?	96	$329	330	0	+330	Yes	+$1	08-11 01:28
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	55	$284	287	0	+287	Yes	+$4	09-16 17:44
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	125	$264	245	26	+219	Yes	+$6	06-07 04:10
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	8	$225	346	0	+346	Yes	+$121	04-07 23:02
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	39	$215	217	0	+217	Yes	+$2	09-08 21:23
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	31	$201	103	103	+0	No	+$1	09-26 07:46
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	54	$187	191	0	+191	No	+$4	06-17 13:24
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	24	$185	169	18	+151	No	+$1	07-27 16:52
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	110	$181	185	0	+185	Yes	+$4	06-02 15:38
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	11	$133	134	0	+134	No	+$1	09-16 18:00
no change in bank of japans interest rates after march 2026 meeting	83	$126	86	70	+16	Yes	+$18	03-18 22:50
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	28	$125	126	0	+126	Yes	+$1	07-31 02:53
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	29	$120	101	20	+81	No	+$1	05-19 23:04
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting?	66	$117	114	5	+110	Yes	+$1	06-10 01:58
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	48	$116	103	18	+85	Yes	+$4	03-14 19:41
Fed rate hike in 2026?	25	$112	121	0	+121	Yes	+$9	09-16 16:14
Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	8	$102	102	0	+102	No	+$0	09-23 08:08
will the bank of canada announce no change at the march meeting	43	$99	102	0	+102	Yes	+$3	03-13 23:18
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?	17	$96	97	0	+97	No	+$0	09-02 12:12
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	37	$96	83	14	+69	Yes	+$1	04-27 22:16
will khamenei leave iran by february 28 2026 713 559	58	$88	54	35	+19	No	+$0	03-01 01:22
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?	15	$85	85	0	+85	No	+$0	09-21 19:04
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?	7	$84	84	0	+84	No	+$0	09-01 14:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-26 07:48:41	Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	No	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0xbedd15…
09-26 07:48:33	Will the People’s Bank of China decrease rates by September 30?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xe6390c…
09-26 07:48:29	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xa47803…
09-26 07:48:21	Will Algeria join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	17	96¢	$17	0x69c789…
09-26 07:48:08	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x705804…
09-26 07:48:00	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x6a40ae…
09-26 07:47:47	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x7f3b6b…
09-26 07:47:27	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	96¢	$28	0xef64ec…
09-26 07:46:33	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	SELL	103	97¢	$101	0x25cadc…
09-23 08:08:05	Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xb7fa2a…
09-23 08:08:05	Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x206dbd…
09-23 08:06:19	Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x55a8d2…
09-23 08:05:58	Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xe6a870…
09-23 08:05:34	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x5866e1…
09-23 04:28:58	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x9f574a…
09-23 04:28:55	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8e5686…
09-23 04:28:55	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x541424…
09-23 04:00:35	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf9198d…
09-23 02:58:43	Will Algeria join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$11	0xb622f5…
09-23 02:55:46	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x538800…
09-23 01:07:44	Will the People’s Bank of China decrease rates by September 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xfa2eef…
09-22 22:07:34	Will the Swiss National Bank decrease the SNB policy rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7ccae5…
09-22 22:07:20	Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x30f3f6…
09-22 22:07:10	Will the Swiss National Bank decrease the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6ce83d…
09-22 14:52:22	Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xf7d4c9…
09-22 14:04:45	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xa5184b…
09-22 14:04:45	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x87924a…
09-22 14:04:45	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$7	0x4c76ee…
09-22 14:04:45	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x41e47d…
09-22 11:38:49	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa06c45…
09-22 08:59:42	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x5a78de…
09-22 08:59:42	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x577ee8…
09-22 08:59:42	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x3cfd73…
09-22 05:49:22	Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x739a1c…
09-22 05:48:54	Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xf5f2ea…
09-22 02:30:35	Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xe276f1…
09-21 19:04:18	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xaec582…
09-21 18:52:03	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xc50c23…
09-21 18:52:03	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x4ba7ae…
09-21 15:16:31	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x903a14…
09-21 15:16:04	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x8097ad…
09-21 14:39:30	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x688c3e…
09-21 13:11:08	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xfd8935…
09-21 13:11:08	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xc03cc3…
09-21 13:11:06	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xc9c10a…
09-21 13:11:06	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xa9390b…
09-21 13:11:06	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x687556…
09-21 13:11:06	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x4ec1b6…
09-21 13:11:06	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x28dda5…
09-21 02:55:43	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	96¢	$18	0x032ce6…
09-21 02:50:22	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	96¢	$10	0xe2cad8…
09-20 23:24:05	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xecb2ec…
09-20 23:24:02	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc3aca3…
09-20 23:24:02	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xaafecf…
09-20 23:24:02	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x2bc877…
09-20 23:24:01	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa5748d…
09-20 22:33:31	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x9b7934…
09-20 21:56:35	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x1fde3a…
09-20 21:44:38	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xadfde1…
09-20 19:57:34	Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9bbfff…
09-20 19:57:34	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6ca146…
09-20 19:57:34	Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6084bd…
09-20 19:57:34	Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x289e6c…
09-20 18:54:40	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0xf00308…
09-20 15:36:12	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xeed587…
09-20 15:21:28	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x527d6e…
09-20 13:36:06	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x495e98…
09-20 07:18:46	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x4ca712…
09-20 06:05:15	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf567c2…
09-20 06:05:15	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xccedbe…
09-19 16:54:39	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$4	0xc8158f…
09-19 16:39:18	Will the People’s Bank of China decrease rates by September 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xab7d80…
09-19 15:48:27	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x2bf80f…
09-19 15:48:26	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x4989cf…
09-19 14:13:30	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb94d52…
09-19 08:35:10	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x798b33…
09-19 08:35:07	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x7b5f05…
09-19 08:33:40	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x1e1a80…
09-19 06:35:21	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcae508…
09-19 06:35:21	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa88f0d…
09-19 06:35:21	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5e3568…
09-19 06:35:21	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x034931…
09-19 05:29:58	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x98cc93…
09-19 05:29:57	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x97d01a…
09-19 05:29:55	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x5e0453…
09-19 05:29:33	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x4dbaac…
09-19 05:29:33	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x3772b1…
09-19 05:29:28	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0xbc891a…
09-19 05:29:28	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x6dd06a…
09-19 04:26:16	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x5f3fe6…
09-19 04:16:21	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x2c6c37…
09-19 03:28:13	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?	Yes	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x78cf25…
09-19 00:20:30	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xc3cd0a…
09-19 00:20:30	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xa7d661…
09-19 00:20:30	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x6bad7a…
09-19 00:20:30	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x403167…
09-19 00:20:30	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x1c00c0…
09-19 00:20:30	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x0ddd1b…
09-19 00:20:30	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x0b23a0…
09-19 00:20:28	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xf81206…