Optimal-Paramedic — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$599

Unrealized P&L

+$20

Hit rate

20.2%

Resolved

Trades

537

lifetime

Volume

$40.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$75

Open exposure

$273

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-03 17:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

63% 25% $-603

Other

24% 100% +$4

Crypto

13% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 136 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No		-312	$-293	88¢	$-273	+$20	06-20 07:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	5	$1.9K	1,349	1,111	+238	open	—	04-19 06:53
netanyahu out by march 31 854	8	$1.7K	1,204	536	+668	open	—	03-16 20:56
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	12	$1.5K	1,279	991	+288	open	—	03-10 11:21
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	4	$1.5K	1,924	1,922	+2	Yes	$-52	03-14 16:30
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	13	$1.1K	831	483	+348	open	—	03-14 16:32
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	2	$1.1K	494	806	-312	open	—	06-20 07:41
will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	9	$1.1K	615	494	+122	open	—	03-13 20:03
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	2	$1.0K	1,045	0	+1,045	open	—	03-10 13:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	9	$842	2,187	1,225	+963	open	—	05-21 16:12
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	5	$833	1,099	0	+1,099	open	—	03-12 19:24
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	4	$827	814	106	+708	open	—	04-08 07:39
us forces enter iran by march 7	2	$749	527	252	+275	open	—	03-07 09:34
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	5	$747	413	398	+15	open	—	03-09 17:04
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	17	$711	654	421	+233	open	—	03-29 20:59
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	4	$661	475	296	+180	open	—	03-09 22:23
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	7	$599	912	690	+222	open	—	03-27 10:54
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	4	$556	330	330	+0	open	—	05-29 20:31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	3	$550	910	0	+910	Yes	$-550	05-08 19:04
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	8	$547	360	209	+151	open	—	03-17 08:11
will iran strike israel on march 10	4	$538	535	41	+494	open	—	03-13 21:24
will ryan coogler win best director at the 98th academy awards	1	$534	572	0	+572	open	—	03-15 20:46
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	5	$525	600	169	+431	open	—	04-12 13:04
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	5	$523	675	143	+532	open	—	05-28 16:49
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	1	$500	521	0	+521	open	—	03-03 19:22
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	9	$495	0	1,834	-1,834	open	—	06-20 07:39
will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	3	$488	806	251	+555	open	—	03-15 20:46
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	6	$487	545	545	+0	open	—	05-26 15:47
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	6	$466	673	198	+475	open	—	02-28 18:13
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	8	$447	1,254	1,253	+1	Yes	+$18	03-14 16:30
will iran strike cyprus in march	3	$419	273	215	+58	open	—	03-09 17:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-03 17:26:08	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	69	29¢	$20	0x994e3a…
07-01 17:27:02	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 team to advance	DR Congo	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xa05f9c…
06-20 07:46:38	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,536	4¢	$94	0x9fe41d…
06-20 07:44:05	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	23	96¢	$22	0x4bbcfb…
06-20 07:41:08	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	806	86¢	$693	0xf36be2…
06-20 07:39:59	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	508	5¢	$25	0xd5bd78…
06-18 15:47:04	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0x898e13…
06-17 19:10:23	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0xb662d3…
06-17 17:32:10	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x0f7483…
06-17 17:20:28	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	388	11¢	$41	0xbf9e21…
06-16 20:35:31	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	109	38¢	$41	0x6bfccf…
06-15 07:39:01	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	191	35¢	$67	0x9545b0…
06-15 07:33:27	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	388	19¢	$75	0xf7e9e0…
06-14 10:15:18	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	34	41¢	$14	0x69c6bd…
06-14 10:15:13	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0xc41f76…
06-14 10:15:07	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	19	41¢	$8	0xca0bb7…
06-14 10:15:06	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	460	41¢	$189	0x1b3138…
06-14 10:12:06	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	9	41¢	$4	0xad5d22…
06-11 17:33:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	494	81¢	$400	0x34c85a…
06-11 17:31:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	558	18¢	$100	0x028adb…
06-08 15:57:39	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	325	8¢	$26	0x7dfc42…
06-08 15:56:10	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	95	21¢	$20	0xe1cc09…
05-30 15:48:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	54	88¢	$48	0xedca94…
05-30 15:46:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x7f2324…
05-30 15:44:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	SELL	125	54¢	$67	0xf4bba1…
05-30 15:42:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	125	32¢	$40	0x136565…
05-30 15:34:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x052802…
05-30 15:18:31	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	SELL	26	83¢	$22	0xfc5f31…
05-30 15:17:32	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	145	86¢	$124	0xdcdc6f…
05-30 15:08:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	320	31¢	$100	0x5f7bfe…
05-30 15:02:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	SELL	13	50¢	$6	0xe11854…
05-30 15:02:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0xf6d04c…
05-30 15:02:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0xed43ba…
05-30 15:02:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x9e4951…
05-30 15:02:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	SELL	307	50¢	$154	0xa39d8f…
05-30 15:01:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	365	27¢	$100	0xabb576…
05-30 14:58:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	231	43¢	$100	0x2164f4…
05-30 14:52:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	314	16¢	$50	0x6d8477…
05-30 14:48:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	SELL	346	41¢	$141	0x31ad65…
05-30 14:46:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	346	14¢	$50	0xe0e0d6…
05-30 14:43:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	45	44¢	$20	0x32eac2…
05-30 14:38:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0xf7e5c2…
05-30 14:32:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xbdfa9c…
05-30 14:29:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	SELL	60	93¢	$56	0xaef664…
05-30 14:28:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	48	84¢	$40	0x30b160…
05-30 14:28:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xdc01c9…
05-30 14:27:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	SELL	56	62¢	$35	0xbd877f…
05-30 14:26:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	56	54¢	$30	0x670ec2…
05-30 14:22:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xd0412f…
05-30 14:22:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xa776c4…
05-30 14:21:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x48ffcf…
05-30 14:12:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	148	27¢	$40	0x4245f2…
05-30 14:02:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0xa51802…
05-30 13:58:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	184	54¢	$100	0x919878…
05-30 13:52:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0xc35be0…
05-30 13:49:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0x423ad4…
05-30 13:49:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	SELL	109	39¢	$42	0x971a36…
05-30 13:47:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	109	46¢	$50	0x6beb60…
05-30 13:42:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	55	73¢	$40	0x5fe1ba…
05-30 13:38:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x371f6a…
05-30 12:17:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0xd4132d…
05-30 12:13:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0x4de459…
05-30 12:09:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	116	87¢	$100	0x0340dd…
05-30 12:03:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	267	37¢	$100	0x5aa30a…
05-30 11:57:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	238	42¢	$100	0x1262e3…
05-30 11:54:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	166	44¢	$72	0xf34cf4…
05-30 11:44:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	SELL	135	95¢	$128	0x4b17d6…
05-30 11:43:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0xb466fb…
05-30 11:43:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	SELL	87	39¢	$34	0x483bbe…
05-30 11:38:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x6955b6…
05-30 11:29:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	SELL	132	64¢	$84	0xf8042d…
05-30 11:29:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	SELL	53	55¢	$29	0x8d743d…
05-30 11:27:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0x4d0b15…
05-30 11:24:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	SELL	267	85¢	$229	0x48f183…
05-30 11:23:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x3cfd29…
05-30 11:21:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	85	47¢	$40	0xde60c5…
05-30 11:18:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	135	37¢	$50	0x4c6a1f…
05-30 11:18:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	116	43¢	$50	0x486a09…
05-30 11:14:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	SELL	166	27¢	$46	0xc05ad2…
05-30 11:13:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	166	30¢	$50	0x14e644…
05-30 11:08:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	91	22¢	$20	0x21c9b2…
05-30 11:03:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x827013…
05-30 11:03:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	21	22¢	$5	0xc6ad7f…
05-30 10:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x585959…
05-30 10:59:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	SELL	36	64¢	$23	0x35c4de…
05-30 10:58:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0xfcb83c…
05-30 10:54:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	273	75¢	$205	0x6c7acb…
05-30 10:54:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x1eeaee…
05-30 10:54:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	SELL	3	41¢	$1	0xdaed1a…
05-30 10:54:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	SELL	12	41¢	$5	0xccf249…
05-30 10:54:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	SELL	27	42¢	$11	0x97a424…
05-30 10:54:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	SELL	7	41¢	$3	0x8c02a3…
05-30 10:53:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0xfb3f02…
05-30 10:49:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	SELL	188	21¢	$40	0xc145d0…
05-30 10:48:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	91	44¢	$40	0xff45e7…
05-30 10:47:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	97	41¢	$40	0x252a47…
05-30 10:44:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	SELL	44	65¢	$29	0x58e77a…
05-30 10:44:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	SELL	30	74¢	$23	0xdb8550…
05-30 10:43:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xb14c73…
05-30 10:42:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0x6ab3f6…