Gleaming-Scenario — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

36.6%

Resolved

Trades

1,320

lifetime

Volume

$5.83K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$10

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-08

last 06-11 12:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

54% 50% +$1

Crypto

30% — —

Politics

14% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 183 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No		-12	$-9	61¢	$-7	+$2	06-05 13:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No		+10	$1	24¢	$2	+$1	06-05 13:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	36	$466	2,139	2,139	+0	open	—	04-21 13:54
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?	16	$183	203	203	+0	open	—	04-23 09:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	12	$171	116	116	+0	open	—	05-01 15:36
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	4	$139	217	217	+0	open	—	04-10 18:13
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	10	$134	157	157	+0	open	—	05-01 15:36
highest temperature in atlanta on april 13 2026 82 83f	7	$122	90	88	+2	open	—	04-13 21:20
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$91	85	85	+0	open	—	04-08 21:27
highest temperature in miami on april 13 2026 80 81f	3	$84	51	50	+1	open	—	04-13 20:17
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in April?	7	$82	71	71	+0	open	—	04-13 11:39
Will Kanye tweet again by April 30?	2	$74	45	45	+0	open	—	04-08 23:49
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	2	$69	51	51	+0	open	—	04-09 00:37
will 60 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	2	$63	57	57	+0	open	—	04-09 00:51
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	4	$56	49	49	+0	open	—	05-14 21:33
highest temperature in munich on april 17 2026 20c	2	$53	28	28	+0	open	—	04-17 18:04
highest temperature in seoul on april 15 2026 21corhigher	3	$52	71	69	+2	open	—	04-14 08:44
highest temperature in seoul on april 19 2026 22c	7	$51	205	50	+155	open	—	04-18 18:14
highest temperature in nyc on april 17 2026 78 79f	4	$50	281	268	+13	open	—	04-17 20:01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	4	$49	74	74	+0	open	—	05-14 17:17
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	2	$48	30	30	+0	open	—	04-08 22:05
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	2	$48	32	32	+0	open	—	04-09 23:39
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	2	$48	29	29	+0	open	—	04-08 21:58
highest temperature in madrid on april 17 2026 26c	2	$48	26	26	+0	open	—	04-17 18:04
highest temperature in atlanta on april 17 2026 88 89f	3	$47	31	28	+2	open	—	04-17 20:09
highest temperature in seattle on april 13 2026 54 55f	5	$47	28	27	+0	open	—	04-14 08:34
highest temperature in seoul on april 20 2026 15c	6	$47	56	54	+2	open	—	04-20 08:13
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	2	$46	25	25	+0	open	—	04-08 23:49
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	2	$46	53	53	+0	Yes	$-1	04-09 00:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	6	$45	29	29	+0	open	—	05-25 14:41
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?	6	$45	2,220	768	+1,453	open	—	04-12 17:49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$42	27	27	+0	open	—	05-31 14:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 12:07:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	9	95¢	$8	0x89b85a…
06-05 13:52:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	18	27¢	$5	0x760773…
06-05 13:52:27	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	4	59¢	$2	0xcb4935…
06-05 13:52:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0xd6a894…
06-05 13:51:57	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	3	88¢	$3	0x7685bd…
06-04 02:08:27	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	No	BUY	16	49¢	$8	0x3900c8…
06-04 02:08:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	No	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xae3679…
06-03 22:48:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x119780…
06-02 16:45:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	74¢	$5	0xc258ff…
06-02 16:13:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	4	86¢	$3	0xdccd6b…
05-31 14:19:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x666801…
05-28 06:23:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	27	22¢	$6	0xa84d31…
05-25 14:49:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	SELL	67	12¢	$8	0x49bd91…
05-25 14:49:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	67	7¢	$5	0x840c98…
05-25 14:44:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	Yes	SELL	81	3¢	$3	0x0abf19…
05-25 14:41:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	16	85¢	$14	0x0a50b5…
05-24 20:01:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	Yes	BUY	66	5¢	$3	0xd40bc7…
05-24 17:53:59	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0xd823ed…
05-24 17:45:54	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x71c05c…
05-24 17:43:59	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	SELL	53	23¢	$12	0x14e978…
05-24 17:22:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xb07718…
05-24 17:22:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0xbdbcb1…
05-24 17:13:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0xce51dd…
05-24 17:13:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	8	88¢	$7	0x5ee92d…
05-24 17:10:32	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	BUY	42	26¢	$11	0x716e9e…
05-24 17:03:40	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0xc02f9d…
05-24 17:02:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	SELL	14	26¢	$4	0xcde663…
05-24 15:47:54	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	SELL	625	1¢	$4	0x95887c…
05-24 15:47:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x0a41a8…
05-24 15:46:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x789272…
05-24 15:46:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x099e60…
05-24 15:45:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x3460b2…
05-24 15:45:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x73a71e…
05-24 15:45:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x3da5a7…
05-23 21:40:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xf7a427…
05-23 21:40:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x7644ba…
05-23 19:27:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x0cf133…
05-23 19:27:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x9441dd…
05-23 19:27:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x7a9aa3…
05-23 19:02:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x99998f…
05-23 19:01:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x339f29…
05-23 18:47:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xe7f407…
05-23 18:47:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xb1b60e…
05-23 18:47:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x1fc5e8…
05-23 18:41:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x5de0e8…
05-23 18:40:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x0cc5ec…
05-23 18:39:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x658f98…
05-23 18:38:16	bitcoin above 77400 on may 23 2026 3pm et	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0xb87c78…
05-23 18:37:48	bitcoin above 74200 on may 23 2026 3pm et	No	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0x78a552…
05-23 18:35:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xe62b3d…
05-23 18:33:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xee7441…
05-23 18:30:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xc9ca1a…
05-23 18:29:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x2bea08…
05-23 18:28:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xe28d69…
05-23 18:13:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xea3569…
05-23 18:13:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xdfb72a…
05-23 18:11:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xd472b2…
05-23 16:40:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xeba5cd…
05-23 16:40:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xa91171…
05-23 12:08:36	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	625	1¢	$5	0x11df2e…
05-23 10:52:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x34185f…
05-22 08:06:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x560d49…
05-21 14:04:08	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0xaa975b…
05-21 09:36:42	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0x425221…
05-21 09:36:16	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	SELL	200	2¢	$4	0xd4fbde…
05-21 09:36:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	31	14¢	$4	0xf7979a…
05-21 09:35:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	33	30¢	$10	0x5edfc3…
05-21 09:32:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$5	0x02c899…
05-21 09:32:11	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xee2d27…
05-21 09:30:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x4c748d…
05-21 09:26:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x65321e…
05-21 09:26:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xd4fe08…
05-21 09:19:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	Yes	SELL	42	22¢	$9	0x32c55f…
05-21 08:55:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xb8d570…
05-21 08:55:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xa7b088…
05-20 11:16:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x2e8fa6…
05-20 11:16:31	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	10	26¢	$2	0x5d5247…
05-19 10:04:54	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x05b8ab…
05-18 10:29:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x03a6a0…
05-14 21:33:04	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	SELL	36	87¢	$31	0x2cc6a9…
05-14 17:17:11	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	27¢	$11	0xd19563…
05-13 19:57:35	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	SELL	13	74¢	$9	0x5a68b4…
05-13 12:49:18	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x2eb868…
05-12 09:59:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	27¢	$11	0xc8fb5c…
05-12 09:20:57	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	40	26¢	$10	0x7a08b4…
05-07 17:01:53	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	52¢	$17	0x881a27…
05-06 10:05:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	8	26¢	$2	0xb985ce…
05-05 12:22:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x4addce…
05-05 09:50:38	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xf1658a…
05-05 09:44:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x444453…
05-03 19:41:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x2a33d8…
05-03 17:12:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xb0dc79…
05-03 16:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xac0e07…
05-03 16:26:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x2998f8…
05-03 16:26:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0x1a7284…
05-03 16:25:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x36ad1e…
05-03 16:19:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xca19b5…
05-03 16:18:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	3	89¢	$2	0x129f59…
05-03 16:15:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x760c2f…
05-03 16:09:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0xabe2a0…